Article: Eduardo Escobar Playing Key Role In Twins' Playoff Push

[Parker Hageman]

Eduardo Escobar’s emergence in the Minnesota Twins’ lineup as an offensive threat is probably unanticipated but as a hitter who popped off 35 doubles a season ago, it should not be wholly unexpected either. Still, there is something crazy about seeing Escobar’s name among the elite shortstops when it comes to offensive production.

 

After hitting .269/.318/.358 in a little over 650 minor league games, the Twins’ switch-hitting middle infield has carved himself out a sudden reputation as an offensive minded player. According to ESPN’s database, Escobar is among the top shortstops when it comes to batting average (2nd), on-base percentage (2nd), and slugging (4th). Over the last 30 days, Escobar has even been out-producing Miguel Sano. While Sano has hit a beastly .270/.381/.606, Escobar has mashed an unbelievable .351/.386/.691 in that stretch.

 

There is no question that Escobar’s contributions have been a welcomed bright spot to a position that was completely punchless over the season’s first half. Where did this offense come from and can he maintain this level of production?When the Twins acquired Escobar in the Francisco Liriano trade in 2012, the response was overwhelmingly m’eh. Baseball America’s Matt Eddy noted that while scouts loved his defensive talents, he had “farther to go with the bat”. His glove work and ability to play multiple positions earned Escobar his first trip to the majors with the Chicago White Sox. In a little over 100 plate appearances spread over two seasons, Escobar failed to hit for average, power or get on base at a replacement level clip. So it is understandable to see why prospectors and analysts had little faith that the Venezuelan would be able to contribute as a regular.

 

Some observers noted Escobar’s occasional gap power as promise but his overall approach in the minors had been to make contact, put the ball in play and use the opposite field. Starting in 2014, Escobar showed a higher tendency to pull the ball from both sides of the plate, leading to an increase in extra-base hits. Last season, Escobar upped his extra-base hit totals, popping off for 35 doubles and adding another six home runs. What was interesting about the distribution of those extra base hits a year ago compared to the ones he’s hitting now is that in 2014, the majority of his extra bases came on balls that hugged the foul lines. This season, Escobar is showing much more gap power.

 

Download attachment: Escobar.png

Escobar has not made too many wholesale changes to his swing over his professional career but the biggest difference is that he is swinging more aggressively. From the left side of the plate, what jumps out is that he is loading his hips more (turning the front leg in) prior to the stride forward. That side stays closed longer and allows him to use his lower half. Additionally, he stays down with his top half, allowing for a solid swing plane and bat path in order to drive balls down in the zone.

 

2012

http://i.imgur.com/796GEJU.gif

2013

http://i.imgur.com/R2v2pQE.gif

2015

http://i.imgur.com/r3gc4bX.gif

From the right side, he uses a leg kick and incorporates his lower half extremely well which he didn’t do as much prior to 2014.

 

2013

http://i.imgur.com/ftprrGb.gif

2014

http://i.imgur.com/6G4sLUL.gif

2015

http://i.imgur.com/2ZXj9iu.gif

As well, Escobar has improved his plate coverage from the right side of the plate. Prior to this season, he was not able to do much with pitches down and away. This season he has been hitting the ever-living fire out of the ball in the zone.

 

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid.png

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (2).png

Can Escobar continue this onslaught and help push the team towards the playoffs? Now a threat to hit for average and power, opponents will undoubtedly key in on ways to quiet his bat over the final weeks of the season. For his part, Escobar should continue to make hay out of pitches that find their way to the low part of the zone.

 

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[Loosey]

He also has been taking a lot more walks lately, which after having 1 through the first month of the season is a good sign in my opinion.

[BigSkyTwinsFan]

Nice article, Parker.  Your usual good stuff.

 

What are your thoughts about his higher walk rate more recently.  It seems significantly better than earlier this year, and somewhat better than his career rate.  SSS or sustainable because of approach changes you note? 

[Dr. Evil]

In my mind, upgrading shortstop is not our lowest hanging fruit. Plug Esco in and leave him alone for the forseable future. Focus on other areas of need.

[ashbury]

After hitting .269/.318/.358 in a little over 650 minor league games, the Twins’ switch-hitting middle infield has carved himself out a sudden reputation as an offensive minded player.

This kind of aggregate stat line always drives me nuts. Obscured by this is the fact that EE was always young for his league. E.g. he was a regular in AAA at age 22.

 

Back when the discussion of interest was Florimon versus Escobar, an age by age comparison of their minor league stats built a strong circumstantial case that Pedro was doomed to be inadequate at the plate, while Eduardo was on a track (if he kept improving with age and experience) to hit sufficiently to hold a job. Also obscuring the issue was that Chicago somehow totally screwed him up for one season, by bringing him up to the majors prematurely.

 

Now, I remained concerned even recently that his numbers might not hold up if he played every day - he's not a real big guy. Lately I'm finally convinced.

 

The rest of the article here is more about the fundamentals, and is of typically high quality, but this one line early-on bothered me.

[Parker Hageman]

This kind of aggregate stat line always drives me nuts. Obscured by this is the fact that EE was always young for his league. E.g. he was a regular in AAA at age 22.

 

 

It's a valid point but in this case I wouldn't get too worked up about his age. Escobar's approach at the plate in those years were as a prototypical middle infielder trying to put the ball in play, shoot it behind the runner and just make contact (he didn't a whole lot). The ability to drive the ball has only developed as of late after he made some adjustments in his approach. 

[ashbury]

The ability to drive the ball has only developed as of late after he made some adjustments in his approach. 

Just like legions of young players before him...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's a valid point but in this case I wouldn't get too worked up about his age. Escobar's approach at the plate in those years were as a prototypical middle infielder trying to put the ball in play, shoot it behind the runner and just make contact (he didn't a whole lot). The ability to drive the ball has only developed as of late after he made some adjustments in his approach. 

Although to be fair, while Escobar's plate record was pedestrian before then, it looks like he made the most important of those adjustments at age 24 in his third season at AAA (arguably his second "season" there by PA, due to a mostly lost age 23 season on MLB benches), which he carried over to MLB that September and even somewhat into winter ball.

 

It wasn't really statistically projectable as you say, but that's the kind of adjustment opportunity that's more plausible for him at that age and level than for Florimon who didn't even appear in AAA until age 25.  (Florimon's unusually slow advancement seemed to indicate a decided lack of such potential in the eyes of talent evaluators.)

 

I also just noticed that Escobar had a strong AFL batting line at age 21 before sneaking into BA's top 100 for 2011, primarily for his glove I am sure but again points in his favor.

 

Still, very pleasantly surprised by Escobar at the plate the past 2+ years, and kudos to the Twins for finding him (and finally committing to him!).

[Parker Hageman]

Just like legions of young players before him...

Again, yeah. In the broad, simplified sense a player who is constantly playing against older competition is likely to see muted stats. And once they get experience they'll likely see improvement. In Escobar's case, it wasn't just age that was suppressing his minor league production. And it is not just experience that has led to him driving the ball now.

 

Escobar's advanced defensive abilities was cited as the reason he was consistently playing at higher levels. Evaluators were never certain what he was going to provide offensively and likely didn't do him any favors in that department by moving him up.

[h2oface]

Nice article and analysis. 

I hope you didn't jinx him. 

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

Nice article and analysis. 

I hope you didn't jinx him. 

 

I've had a history of that lately.

[HitInAPinch]

Great analysis!  What caught my eye was how much Escobar's 2013 right-side hitting looks similar to Buxton right now.  The tap, tap tapping thing isn't a big deal.  But not planting that front foot is.  I'm starting to believe that the Twins hitting coaches actually have an organizational plan for developing hitters!

 

Esocbar's line in his 59 games this year at SS:  .311BA  .359OBP  .539SLG  .898OPS

[dgwills]

 

Again, yeah. In the broad, simplified sense a player who is constantly playing against older competition is likely to see muted stats. And once they get experience they'll likely see improvement. In Escobar's case, it wasn't just age that was suppressing his minor league production. And it is not just experience that has led to him driving the ball now.

Escobar's advanced defensive abilities was cited as the reason he was consistently playing at higher levels. Evaluators were never certain what he was going to provide offensively and likely didn't do him any favors in that department by moving him up.

I agree with you, but they did help him hit free agency faster. That will be good for him. Of course they risked his chance of being a mlb player by hurting his development. Everything seems to have worked out perfectly for him now.