Article: Twins 2015 Minor League Hitter Of The Year - Max Kepler

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 HR        -OPS 
 1           -.701 

 31         -.807

 

I probably wouldn't put Beresford ahead of Walker, but I'd still rank Walker about where Jeremy did.  I mean look at those numbers.  It seems nearly impossible for a guy to have a 30-1 HR advantage over another player and still barely have a 100 point OPS advantage.  I guess another way to look at it is, how does the league HR leader three years running only have a .807 OPS?!?! He should be getting pitched around nearly every at bat.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

how does the league HR leader three years running only have a .807 OPS?!?! He should be getting pitched around nearly every at bat.

 

Because he misses a LOT of pitches.

[nicksaviking]

 

Because he misses a LOT of pitches.

 

Yup.  If called up as things stand now, he'd never see a strike.

[Oxtung]

Easily... Walker played a full  season. Sano played a 1/2 season in the minors and we only used minor league numbers...

 

I can understand that. It's a minor league award after all, but why include him at all then? I guess that is where my confusion came from. Unless your trying to say that in half a year Sano was more valuable than all but a handful of the prospects over the course of the full season? Something else I'm missing perhaps? Just trying to fully understand the criteria.

[TNLooky2015]

ihes

Because he misses a LOT of pitches.

To me - That's OK, because when he doesn't - It turns out pretty good and usually into an XBH (not just a HR).

 

Dozier [.237 BA / .313 OBP / .456 SLG]

Walker [.239 BA / .309 OBP / .496 SLG]

Similar production numbers as well and Walker bats 6th & 7th, not 2nd.

Love one, Luke warm on the other? Can't talk position make up because the Twins only have 2 power positions on the field (RF & 3rd).  They are a team made up of opportunistic players and no true threats (BA / SLG).

 

CHATTANOOGA LINE UP until JUNE

Buxton (1st)

Polanco (2nd)

Sano (3rd)

D. Hicks (4th) / Kepler (4th) when Hicks was injured

Harrison (5th)

Gonzalez (6th)

Walker (7th) League leader from the 7th hole

Turner (8th)

Michael (9th)

 

Opposing announcers and even the Birmingham hitting coach joked about why throw him fastballs when there are no threats in front of him or behind him in the line up. Stop putting the presence of the Top three in the line up as a major factor in Walker playing well.    Is it fair to say that Walker probably never drove in Buxton or Polanco from the 7th hole?    Just saying..........think out it  ?  Can't be done

 

Good Article Title:  "The Intangibles of a Player/Prospect"

[Mike Sixel]

We can't talk position because what? And are those MLB numbers compared to AA numbers?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I can understand that. It's a minor league award after all, but why include him at all then? I guess that is where my confusion came from. Unless your trying to say that in half a year Sano was more valuable than all but a handful of the prospects over the course of the full season? Something else I'm missing perhaps? Just trying to fully understand the criteria.

 

I think that is a fair statement. Like any vote or ballot we each weighed several factors, including playing time and production. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Changing the topic slightly... What's Beresford's ceiling?

He seems to have a hit tool, but not really anything else (although I can't speak to his defense)

Good Nick Punto?

 

I don't think people realize how good Nick Punto was. Beresford came up as a SS/2B, but he's only played 2B the last 3 years or so. I'm sure he can still play all three IF spots. But when it came to utility play, Punto was pretty elite defensively and walked a ton! 

[clutterheart]

I wonder why Harrison got so many votes.  What about his season did the authors like?

 

I picked him to break out this year.  He didn't.  He did maintain his decent OBP but his power numbers and BA are way below its needs to be for a Corner OF'er.

.  

[bluechipper]

I agree. I was hoping for a breakout year too, but he looks to be basically done as a prospect.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I wonder why Harrison got so many votes.  What about his season did the authors like?

 

I picked him to break out this year.  He didn't.  He did maintain his decent OBP but his power numbers and BA are way below its needs to be for a Corner OF'er.

.  

 

I can't answer for the others. His OPS was good among those that would be eligible, but I couldn't put him in my top 10.

[TNLooky2015]

On a completely different topic about Top Hitting Qualifications:

Not trying to be funny either, but do BB numbers make you a better hitter and if so does that make an Adam Dunn considered a good hitter despite leading the league in BB and SO?

 

Curious what the Seth and Jeremy's and others think on subject?     I only ask because BB have a significant influence on OPS over the length of a season.    Is there a significant portion of OPS that matters more than the other part in your minds?

Edited September 18, 2015 by TNLooky2015

[nytwinsfan]

 

On a completely different topic about Top Hitting Qualifications:

Not trying to be funny either, but do BB numbers make you a better hitter and if so does that make an Adam Dunn considered a good hitter despite leading the league in BB and SO?

 

Curious what the Seth and Jeremy's and others think on subject?     I only ask because BB have a significant influence on OPS over the length of a season.    Is there a significant portion of OPS that matters more than the other part in your minds?

It has been pretty clearly shown that OBP is the more important part of OPS, when compared to SLG. See, e.g.,

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/

 

or

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

 

"On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8)."

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I wonder why Harrison got so many votes.  What about his season did the authors like?

 

I picked him to break out this year.  He didn't.  He did maintain his decent OBP but his power numbers and BA are way below its needs to be for a Corner OF'er.

.  

 

He got off to a very good start and fizzled.  Not quite sure I'd call him done as a prospect.  He was drafted out of HS.  That can take some time. 

[bluechipper]

 

He got off to a very good start and fizzled.  Not quite sure I'd call him done as a prospect.  He was drafted out of HS.  That can take some time. 

The only thing that he's shown he is good at is taking walks. He was profiled as a power hitter coming out of high school, but he's been far from that up to this point. Add that to below average defense and there isn't a lot to be excited about. The only good thing, as you pointed out, is that he still somewhat has age on his side.

[Monkeypaws]

This kid looks like Morneau 2.0 to me.

[Tom]

Not worked up.    Never.    Just disagree with your thoughts.    That's what the forum is for, right?   Discussion and points of view.    I respect the right that everyone has the right to think what they feel.    Same fun arguments you and Seth probably have all year.      All in fun. Walker helps guide Lookouts into SL Finalshttp://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150914&content_id=149547528&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_l111&sid=l111

 

Man, you guys are getting pretty worked up. I'm comfortable putting Walker where I did. I don't think he had a great season. I'm not making a point, I had about 20 guys I considered, then I lined them up. Nothing personal against Walker. And when I do my off-season prospect list, I'll probably rank him lower than the other guys too. Which is OK. That's how opinions work. And I'll read yours and respect that it's your opinion too. But getting worked up that one person of five ranked a player where he did seems excessive. (Although, subconsciously, maybe I do have a deep-rooted hatred towards Walkers from Wisconsin.)

 

Man, you guys are getting pretty worked up. I'm comfortable putting Walker where I did. I don't think he had a great season. I'm not making a point, I had about 20 guys I considered, then I lined them up. Nothing personal against Walker. And when I do my off-season prospect list, I'll probably rank him lower than the other guys too. Which is OK. That's how opinions work. And I'll read yours and respect that it's your opinion too. But getting worked up that one person of five ranked a player where he did seems excessive. (Although, subconsciously, maybe I do have a deep-rooted hatred towards Walkers from Wisconsin.)

[Tom]

I agree with TNLooky. James Beresford produced 107 runs this year, Adam Brett Walker produced 150 runs! Runs are what win ball games! The most productive hitter in Twins history is Harmon Killebrew with a lifetime batting average of .256! Also Adam Brett Walker was 2nd in Slugging Percentage in the Southern League behind Kepler. Most major league MVP's have a high Slugging Percentage!

[TNLooky2015]

 

I agree with TNLooky. James Beresford produced 107 runs this year, Adam Brett Walker produced 150 runs! Runs are what win ball games! The most productive hitter in Twins history is Harmon Killebrew with a lifetime batting average of .256! Also Adam Brett Walker was 2nd in Slugging Percentage in the Southern League behind Kepler. Most major league MVP's have a high Slugging Percentage!

Thank you.    Just 2 opinions.    Walker was considered a finalist for the Southern League MVP and lost to a deserving teammate.    But SL MVP worthy to 6th or 7th on his list  -  WOW.    We can agree to disagree JN

 

Congrats to Kepler and his call up by the way.    Had to happen. 

 Congrats to the Lookouts and to the Champions of 3 in 4 years.

Edited September 23, 2015 by TNLooky2015

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We can certainly agree to disagree. I promise to not lose sleep over it. If Walker dominates the AFL, it would be a pleasant surprise. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I agree with TNLooky. James Beresford produced 107 runs this year, Adam Brett Walker produced 150 runs! Runs are what win ball games! The most productive hitter in Twins history is Harmon Killebrew with a lifetime batting average of .256! Also Adam Brett Walker was 2nd in Slugging Percentage in the Southern League behind Kepler. Most major league MVP's have a high Slugging Percentage!

 

I used those "runs produced" numbers you used, assuming they're accurate. Cause, yeah, it's about runs, but only in the context that you only get so many outs. Two different teams/lineups though, make it apples and oranges, so though there's a huge difference in "runs produced", but only a 4% difference in "runs produced" per game. Walker produced 21.5% of Chattanooga's runs, Beresford produced 17.5% of Rochester's. But in the context of outs, Walker made 399 outs, compared to Beresford's 365 (Figured by plate appearances, on-base percentage, caught stealing and double plays). So in the context of "% of team's runs scored per 27 outs" (times 100), Walker barely edges Beresford 1.45 to 1.37. When you add into the fact that most of Walker's hits scored all the runners on base (regardless of speed) while Beresford's RBIs were at the mercy of the speed of the runners on base (because a single doesn't always score the runner on 2nd), those difference would almost be negligible. So, despite those "runs produced" numbers being so different, their actual production was almost identical.

 

(You can also make stats say whatever you want, if you try hard enough.)

Edited September 23, 2015 by Jeremy Nygaard
made stat more relative

[Tom]

Runs produced is a fairly simple statistic. You add a players runs scored and rbi and then subtract Home Runs. James Beresford scored 58 runs and had 50 rbi. He had 1 Home Run this year. 58+50=108 subtract 1 Home Run=107 Runs produced. Adam Brett Walker had 75 runs and had 106 rbi. He had 31 Home Runs this year. 75+106=181 subtract 31 Home Runs=150 Runs produced. I understand you place a big emphasis on strikeouts but Miguel Sano would be on pace to strikeout 225 times in a typical 500 at bat season! That is a ton of strikeouts yet he's having a productive year!

[TNLooky2015]

I'll leave it at this.  Name the last Twins player or Minor leaguer to lead his team and league in HRs and RBI for 3 straight years?  Now name the last Twins player to do so and have 3 championships in 4 years?  Oh yeah - The one year he didn't win the championship, his team had the best record in all of minor league baseball.  The game is about wins and loses and nobody helps his team WIN more than Walker has in the last 3 years.  Most of those seasons went without the Top prospects in the game playing during the second half.  Hard to argue based on his run production numbers.  You can't score - You can't win! 

 

For the record though - ABW will not be a Top 20 prospect in the Southern League (Baseball America rankings) despite his numbers.  There are more people who think like Jeremy than me.  FACT

 

I wonder if Walker continues to produce like he is currently (Dozier like season) at the MLB level, will he have as much pessimism?

[TRex]

 

I'll leave it at this.  Name the last Twins player or Minor leaguer to lead his team and league in HRs and RBI for 3 straight years?  Now name the last Twins player to do so and have 3 championships in 4 years?  Oh yeah - The one year he didn't win the championship, his team had the best record in all of minor league baseball.  The game is about wins and loses and nobody helps his team WIN more than Walker has in the last 3 years.  Most of those seasons went without the Top prospects in the game playing during the second half.  Hard to argue based on his run production numbers.  You can't score - You can't win! 

 

For the record though - ABW will not be a Top 20 prospect in the Southern League (Baseball America rankings) despite his numbers.  There are more people who think like Jeremy than me.  FACT

 

I wonder if Walker continues to produce like he is currently (Dozier like season) at the MLB level, will he have as much pessimism?

I think it is a fact that, as long as Walker's K-rate and BB-rate don't improve, there will always be this much pessimism because these parameters have proven to be excellent 'predictors' of future performance. 

 

It's easier to win at the Roulette table by placing your money on 'black' than on a specific number... but the payoff isn't as great. Perhaps another way to look at it is with horse racing. The goal of minor league development is to get a group of players who produce at MLB and not just a single player (i.e. a Trifecta instead of just a single winner). Therefore, I think prospectors (myself anyway) try to avoid long shots. However, if you are picking a favorite prospect, long shots are great! 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Runs produced is a fairly simple statistic. You add a players runs scored and rbi and then subtract Home Runs. James Beresford scored 58 runs and had 50 rbi. He had 1 Home Run this year. 58+50=108 subtract 1 Home Run=107 Runs produced. Adam Brett Walker had 75 runs and had 106 rbi. He had 31 Home Runs this year. 75+106=181 subtract 31 Home Runs=150 Runs produced. I understand you place a big emphasis on strikeouts but Miguel Sano would be on pace to strikeout 225 times in a typical 500 at bat season! That is a ton of strikeouts yet he's having a productive year!

 

What I'm referencing above has nothing to do with strikeouts. It only has to do with making outs. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Hard to argue based on his run production numbers.  You can't score - You can't win! 

 

 

I'm actually not arguing that. As I demonstrated above, his actual production - runs created of the team's total runs - vs how many outs he makes is very similar to Beresford's. 

 

A lineup full of Walkers would hit a ton of solo home runs. And score less runs per game than a lineup full of, say, Max Keplers, Nick Gordons, Reynaldo Rodriguezes, etc. 

[TNLooky2015]

 

I'm actually not arguing that. As I demonstrated above, his actual production - runs created of the team's total runs - vs how many outs he makes is very similar to Beresford's. 

 

A lineup full of Walkers would hit a ton of solo home runs. And score less runs per game than a lineup full of, say, Max Keplers, Nick Gordons, Reynaldo Rodriguezes, etc. 

 

That's possible   and maybe even probable - I just know that when Walker does lead his team in HRs and RBI his teams have won the regular season championship damn near every year:

Great Lakes Summer League - Championship - 2010 (1st ever)

Cape Cod Summer League - Championship - 2011 (1st in last 23 years)

Elizabethton - Championship - 2012 (2 out HR in bottom of the 9th to tie)

Cedar Rapids - Best Record in Baseball - 2013 (best record in baseball 2nd half after Bux left)

Fort Myers - Championship - 2014 (1st championship ever)

Chattanooga - Championship - 2015  (1st championship since 1988)

 

Just saying......................You're talking predictors and probabilities and I'm talking history.    I'll use my own predictors based on historical probabilities.    I'm curious what a sure shot looks like if he is still considered a long shot.    Let's just call him Seabiscuit

 

Edited September 28, 2015 by TNLooky2015

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

That's possible   and maybe even probable - I just know that when Walker does lead his team in HRs and RBI his teams have won the regular season championship damn near every year:

Great Lakes Summer League - Championship - 2010 (1st ever)

Cape Cod Summer League - Championship - 2011 (1st in last 23 years)

Elizabethton - Championship - 2012 (2 out HR in bottom of the 9th to tie)

Cedar Rapids - Best Record in Baseball - 2013 (best record in baseball 2nd half after Bux left)

Fort Myers - Championship - 2014 (1st championship ever)

Chattanooga - Championship - 2015  (1st championship since 1988)

 

Just saying......................You're talking predictors and probabilities and I'm talking history.    I'll use my own predictors based on historical probabilities.    I'm curious what a sure shot looks like if he is still considered a long shot.    Let's just call him Seabiscuit

 

So maybe he's the perfect replacement for Torii Hunter, Proven Winner.