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Article: Twins 2015 Minor League Hitter Of The Year - Max Kepler

Seth Stohs

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Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

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Last Monday, Labor Day, the Minor League seasons came to an end. Yes, Cedar Rapids and Chattanooga are still playing in the playoffs, but it is time to start handing out some awards. All week, we will be handing out some (proverbial) awards.

 

The Twins Minor League Report authors each voted for these five awards. Today, we’ll take a look at the top hitters in the Twins minor league system in 2015. We each voted for our top eight performers.We’ll do short profiles of our Top 8, but first, here are some Honorable Mentions.

 

Honorable Mention

  • James Beresford – Rochester Red Wings – 153-498 - .307/.341/.359 (.701) – 21-2B, 1-3B, 1-HR, 50-RBI
  • Danny Ortiz – Rochester Red Wings – 120-484 - .248/.295/.430 (.725) – 31-2B, 3-3B, 17-HR, 78-RBI
  • Travis Harrison – Chattanooga Lookouts – 95-396 - .240/.363/.356 (.719) – 23-2B, 4-3B, 5-HR, 54-RBI
  • Niko Goodrum – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts – 96-414 - .232/.331/.367 (.698) – 17-2B, 6-3B, 9-HR, 38-RBI
  • Alex Swim – Ft. Myers – 107-344 - .311/.349/.360 (.709) – 13-2B, 2-3B, 0-HR, 38-RBI
  • TJ White – Cedar Rapids/Ft. Myers Miracle – 113-450 - .251/.336/.342 (.678) – 23-2B, 6-3B, 2-HR, 54-RBI
  • Edgar Corcino – Cedar Rapids Kernels – 90-330 - .273/.340/.376 (.715) – 16-2B, 3-3B, 4-HR, 41-RBI
  • Nick Gordon – Cedar Rapids Kernels – 133-481 - .277/.336/.360 (.696) – 23-2B, 7-3B, 1-HR, 58-RBI
Hitter of the Year

 

Here are the top eight vote-getters for Twins Minor League hitter of the year.

 

#8 – Jorge Polanco – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings (139-525 - .288/.339/.386 (.725), with 23 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HR, 53 RBI)

 

 

Polanco has had another solid season in the Twins system. As he did in 2014, Polanco moved around frequently. He spent the first half in Chattanooga. He has again had two brief cups of coffee with the big league club. He spent 22 games in Rochester. Following his most recent demotion from the Twins, he went back to the Lookouts. In 95 AA games this year, Polanco hit .289/.346/.393 (.739) with 17 doubles, three triples and six home runs. In 22 AAA games, he hit .284/.309/.352 (.661). Defense has been a much bigger concern for Polanco as he committed 28 errors in the minor leagues. In four games with the Twins, he had two more errors, though he was 3-10 at the plate. Where does he fit in the organization? Can he play enough defense at shortstop to be a big league regular? It will be interesting.

#7 – Kennys Vargas – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings (69-244 - .283/.414/.496 (.910), with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 13 HR, 46 RBI)

 

Though there were consistently rumors in spring training that Vargas could begin the season in the minor leagues. However, he was the fifth hitter in the Twins Opening Day lineup. However, he struggled mightily and was sent to Rochester. Weeks later, he returned, but the struggles continued. On July 1st, he was sent down to AA Chattanooga. It was what he needed to jump-start his season again. In 35 games, he hit .287/.417/.516 (.934) with three doubles, two triples and seven homers. He moved back up to AAA. He was the Twins Daily Hitter of the Month in August and returned to the Twins on September 1st. This is obviously not a list that Vargas wanted to be on, but he handled it well and the hope would be that he takes what he learned and take a step forward in his big league career.

#6 – Byron Buxton – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings (89-292 - .305/.367/.500 (.867), with 10 doubles, 13 triple, 7 HR, 45 RBI)

 

After missing much of the 2014 season, excitement was high for the Twins (and baseball’s) top prospect. 2015 has been a topsy-turvy year for the phenom. He hit .180 through the first 12 games. Doug Mientkiewicz gave him two straight days off to clear his mind. He responded by hitting .338 (1.056 OPS) over the next 16 games. Then he went 1-21 (.048) over the next five games. However, over the next 25 games, he hit .347/.422/.564 (.987) with 12 extra base hits. He was called up to the Twins and hit .189 in his 11 games with the Twins. However, he missed about six weeks due to a thumb injury. When he returned, he was sent to Rochester. He hit .400 and hit in all 13 games he played in with the Red Wings. At that point, Aaron Hicks was hurt and Buxton returned to the Twins lineup. He had multiple hits in four of his first six games and has hit .282/.326/.378 (.705) in 31 games since his return. More important to the 2015 Twins, his defense is centerfield has been even more impressive than touted. It’s clear in watching him that he has the potential to be great, but he still has work to do.

#5 – Tanner English – Cedar Rapids Kernels (75-243 - .265/.359/.406 (.764), with 22 doubles, 8 triples, 5 HR, 36 RBI)

 

English was the Twins 11th round pick just last year out of the University of South Carolina. He struggled early in the season, batting ninth for the Kernels and working through some mechanical issues. From July 4 through August 14 (36 games), he went on a tear. He hit .328/.400/518 (.918) with 13 doubles, two triples and three home runs. Looking for a longer sample size, he hit .285/.364/.440 (.805) with 18 doubles, seven triple and four home runs over his final 76 games. Unfortunately, his season came to an abrupt end on August 14th with a collision in left centerfield that ended his season with a thumb injury. English is a tremendous defensive centerfielder with great range and a strong arm. He has good speed and stole 28 bases in 33 attempts this year.

#3 (Tie) – Reynaldo Rodriguez – Rochester Red Wings (113-401 - .255/.307/.446 (.753), with 34 doubles, 7 triples, 16 HR, 80 RBI)

 

Rodriguez just finished his third season in the Twins organization. Although he has been good and productive in his first two seasons, 2015 was his best. The 29-year-old from Colombia originally signed with the Yankees in 2005. He played some independent league ball and also spent four years in the Red Sox organization. He spent the entire 2013 season in New Britain. He spent most of 2014 with the Rock Cats, though he did play ten games with the Red Wings. Rodriguez punished left-handed pitching to the tune of a .882 OPS compared with a .707 OPS against right-handers.

#3 (Tie) – Miguel Sano – Chattanooga Lookouts (.274/.374/.544 (.918), with 18 doubles, 1 triple, 15 HR, 48 RBI)

 

As we all know, Sano missed the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. As one would expect after not playing a meaningful game for nearly 17 months, Sano struggled early, shaking off rust. After an 0-3 on May 1st, Sano was hitting .152/.300/.364 (.664) in 19 games. At that point, he took off. Over his next 47 games, he hit .320/.403/.611 (1.014). That was through June 29th. His next game was with the Twins on June 2nd, and he has continued to rake, hit home runs, drive in runs, walk, and strikeout with strong regularity.

#2 – Adam Brett Walker – Chattanooga Lookouts (100-356 - .239/.309/.498 (807), with 31 doubles, 3 triples, 31 HR, 106 RBI)

 

Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012. He put together a very interesting 2015 season. His batting average dipped a little, and yet his walk rate improved. He also led minor league baseball in strikeouts with 195. However, it’s hard to ignore the productivity, and the consistent productivity. He led his league in home runs for the third straight season. He drove in over 100 runs for the second time in three seasons. He continued to surprise people with some sneaky stolen bases. He moved from right field to left field. The strikeouts, of course, remain a huge concern in the short and long term. However, few minor leaguers have as much raw power as Walker. His power is on par with Miguel Sano’s. Still just 23-years-old, the hard-working Walker will be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season.

Hitter of the Year – Max Kepler – Chattanooga Lookouts (131-407 - .322/.416/.531 (.947), with 32 doubles, 13 triples, 9 HR, 71 RBI)

 

 

Kepler’s spring training ended a little early due to a minor injury. He started his season with six games with the Ft. Myers Miracle. But that was just a tune up. He was promoted to Chattanooga and after that, he didn’t stop hitting.

He was the Twins Daily minor league hitter of the month in May when he hit .359/.400/.583 (.983) with 13 doubles, two triples and two home runs. He was the runner up for Twins Daily hitter of the month in June and July (though the Minnesota Twins named him their top minor league hitter both of those months. In June, he hit .364/.472/.580 (1.052) with five doubles, two triples and three homers. In July, he hit .306/.412/.556 (.967) with five doubles, two triples and three homers. In August, he finished fourth in Twins Daily hitter of the month voting, but he still hit .301/.405/.495.

In his career, he had struggled against left-handed pitching. In 2015, he hit .322/.394/.478 (.872) against southpaws.

At 6-4 and 220 pounds, Kepler should continue to develop power. For now, he has a lot of doubles power and his speed turns some of them into triples. He even stole 19 bases in 23 attempts in 2015.

Last month, Parker wrote about Kepler’s continued improvement. In it, Lookouts hitting coach talked about the incorporation of a leg kick and how they made him more aggressive.

It worked. Kepler put up numbers that aren’t seen often. He was named the Southern League MVP. Baseball America and MLB.com put them on their 2015 Minor League All Star teams. He has led the Lookouts to the Southern League playoffs.

Many were worried about his overall numbers the last couple of years. However, he is still just 22-years-old. In 2013, he turned his remarkable tools into skills.

So there you have it. There were some really terrific offensively performances by Twins minor leaguers in 2015.

 

THE BALLOTS

 

In an attempt to be transparent, here are the votes from our Twins Daily minor league writers:

  • Seth Stohs – 1.) Max Kepler, 2.) Adam Brett Walker, 3.) Reynaldo Rodriguez, 4.) Miguel Sano, 5.) Kennys Vargas, 6.) Byron Buxton, 7.) Tanner English, 8.) James Beresford
  • Jeremy Nygaard – 1.) Max Kepler, 2.) Aaron Hicks, 3.) Kennys Vargas, 4.) Miguel Sano, 5.) Byron Buxton, 6.) James Beresford, 7.) Adam Brett Walker, 8.) Reynaldo Rodriguez
  • Cody Christie – 1.) Max Kepler, 2.) Adam Brett Walker, 3.) Tanner English, 4.) Jorge Polanco, 5.) Reynaldo Rodriguez, 6.) Mitch Garver, 7.) Danny Ortiz, 8.) Travis Harrison
  • Steve Lien – 1.) Max Kepler, 2.) Adam Brett Walker, 3.) Miguel Sano, 4.) Byron Buxton, 5.) Reynaldo Rodriguez, 6.) Nick Gordon, 7.) Danny Ortiz, 8.) Travis Harrison
  • Eric Pleiss – 1.) Max Kepler, 2.) Adam Brett Walker, 3.) Tanner English, 4.) Travis Harrison, 5.) Jorge Polanco, 6.) TJ White, 7.) Mitch Garver, 8.) Reynaldo Rodriguez.
Feel free to discuss. How would your ballot look?

 

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TNLooky2015 College Ball

TNLooky2015

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I actually don't mind strikeouts. I just prefer my hitters have an ability to get on base. If you can slug 500 but barely have an OPS of 800, you're doing something wrong.

But that's why five people vote, not just me.

When you lead the league / organization in Total Bases (250) that should offset the OBP part just a little.  And when you put yourself in scoring position more  than anyone in the organization (65 XBH) that should offset the OBP part just a little. 

 

And when you score 75 times (purpose of the game), which is one less time than Mad Max (deserving winner by the way), OBP doesn't seem as important to me.   Max had an OBP and OPS much much higher than Walker, but in terms of how that helped his team win more games, you will have to explain that to me.  That is the purpose of the game - Score more runs than your opponent and nobody does it better in the organization (3 years running) than Walker (scoring and rbi collectively).    I'm assuming that is why you appreciate OBP and OPS in your hitters?    For the purpose of enhancing the ability to scoring runs.    Like the song goes:   "Nobody does it better"

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blairpaul715 Draft Eligible

blairpaul715

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Do we have English's numbers correct?! That's not a line I would have missed!

I dont think so, i noticed right away too, but I am excited about his prospects, a similar version to Revere, but with a much better arm!! And a little less contact?

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Turd Furgeson

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When you lead the league / organization in Total Bases (250) that should offset the OBP part just a little.  And when you put yourself in scoring position more  than anyone in the organization (65 XBH) that should offset the OBP part just a little. 

 

And when you score 75 times (purpose of the game), which is one less time than Mad Max (deserving winner by the way), OBP doesn't seem as important to me.   Max had an OBP and OPS much much higher than Walker, but in terms of how that helped his team win more games, you will have to explain that to me.  That is the purpose of the game - Score more runs than your opponent and nobody does it better in the organization (3 years running) than Walker (scoring and rbi collectively).    I'm assuming that is why you appreciate OBP and OPS in your hitters?    For the purpose of enhancing the ability to scoring runs.    Like the song goes:   "Nobody does it better"

 

Most of the measures where Adam Brett Walker has Max Kepler beat are because he played 21 more games in AA than Max Kepler did. There is something to be said about actually being on the field and playing every day but Kepler spent some time in high A before going to AA. Kepler's OBP and OPS are so much higher than Walker's that I can see the case for favoring them over what you mentioned. 

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Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

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I dont think so, i noticed right away too, but I am excited about his prospects, a similar version to Revere, but with a much better arm!! And a little less contact?

 

English is a little taller, stronger, and not quite as fast... and yeah, a LOT less contact. But English is a legit prospect.

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nytwinsfan

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When you lead the league / organization in Total Bases (250) that should offset the OBP part just a little.  And when you put yourself in scoring position more  than anyone in the organization (65 XBH) that should offset the OBP part just a little. 

 

And when you score 75 times (purpose of the game), which is one less time than Mad Max (deserving winner by the way), OBP doesn't seem as important to me.   Max had an OBP and OPS much much higher than Walker, but in terms of how that helped his team win more games, you will have to explain that to me. 

 

To see why total bases isn't as useful as OBP realize that if you get on base twice in 2 ABs with two singles, two walks, or a walk and a single, that is better than getting a double one AB and an out another AB in those same 2 ABs. This is because while an out decreases the odds significantly of further runs from the next batter(s), neither a walk nor a single do that. Now you might say, well a double is more likely to knock in a runner on 3rd, 2nd, or even (depending on the runner and the hit) 1B.  But a single is likely to knock in a runner from 2B or 3B, and both a single and a BB will move runners on 1st to 2nd, and runners on 2nd and 1st to 3rd and 2nd, etc. And since we are assuming there are two of them, it does this twice, not just once. So on the ledger side of 1 double, 1 out, we have (1 occasion when any runners are moved over 2 or 3 bases, plus a guaranteed runner on 2, but we also have one occasion where no runners are moved along, and also an out, significantly reducing the chances for further runs from other batters that inning.)  On the ledger side of 2 singles, 2 walks, or 1 of each we have (2 occasions when some runners are moved over a base or two (including scoring from 2B on singles), and 2 occasions with guaranteed runners on 1B, and no occasions where no runners are moved along, and also no outs reducing the chances of further hits, BB, and runs). 

 

This is my long-winded attempt at explaining quasi-intuitively what standard statistical regressions have mathematically shown.  One point of OBP is worth more than AVG, and even one point of OBP is worth more than one point SLG. Of course, walks and singles are not worth the same either, with walks being less valuable (because they can't knock in a runner from 2B for instance).  To deal with all of these relative values, sabermetrics has come up with wOBA, which attempts to fully value each kind of hit or walk by its likelihood of leading to a run. This has shown (and this will probably strike many people as being wrong - but really it isn't) that a HR is worth only a little bit more than twice a single (2.35 times actually).  Of course Sano's HR versus KC the other night in the 12th was worth more than 2.35 times a single in that situation. Probably much much more. But wOBA is context independent. It values each hit according to how much value it would have on an average occasion.

 

You can read about that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-joy-of-woba/

 

Here is more on the relative values of different outcomes:  http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

 

Edited by nytwinsfan
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TNLooky2015 College Ball

TNLooky2015

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To see why total bases isn't as useful as OBP realize that if you get on base twice in 2 ABs with two singles, two walks, or a walk and a single, that is better than getting a double one AB and an out another AB in those same 2 ABs. This is because while an out decreases the odds significantly of further runs from the next batter(s), neither a walk nor a single do that. Now you might say, well a double is more likely to knock in a runner on 3rd, 2nd, or even (depending on the runner and the hit) 1B.  But a single is likely to knock in a runner from 2B or 3B, and both a single and a BB will move runners on 1st to 2nd, and runners on 2nd and 1st to 3rd and 2nd, etc. And since we are assuming there are two of them, it does this twice, not just once. So on the ledger side of 1 double, 1 out, we have (1 occasion when any runners are moved over 2 or 3 bases, plus a guaranteed runner on 2, but we also have one occasion where no runners are moved along, and also an out, significantly reducing the chances for further runs from other batters that inning.)  On the ledger side of 2 singles, 2 walks, or 1 of each we have (2 occasions when some runners are moved over a base or two (including scoring from 2B on singles), and 2 occasions with guaranteed runners on 1B, and no occasions where no runners are moved along, and also no outs reducing the chances of further hits, BB, and runs). 

 

This is my long-winded attempt at explaining quasi-intuitively what standard statistical regressions have mathematically shown.  One point of OBP is worth more than AVG, and even one point of OBP is worth more than one point SLG. Of course, walks and singles are not worth the same either, with walks being less valuable (because they can't knock in a runner from 2B for instance).  To deal with all of these relative values, sabermetrics has come up with wOBA, which attempts to fully value each kind of hit or walk by its likelihood of leading to a run. This has shown (and this will probably strike many people as being wrong - but really it isn't) that a HR is worth only a little bit more than twice a single (2.35 times actually).  Of course Sano's HR versus KC the other night in the 12th was worth more than 2.35 times a single in that situation. Probably much much more. But wOBA is context independent. It values each hit according to how much value it would have on an average occasion.

 

You can read about that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-joy-of-woba/

 

Here is more on the relative values of different outcomes:  http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

ABW's wOBA of .367 ain't bad

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TNLooky2015

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Most of the measures where Adam Brett Walker has Max Kepler beat are because he played 21 more games in AA than Max Kepler did. There is something to be said about actually being on the field and playing every day but Kepler spent some time in high A before going to AA. Kepler's OBP and OPS are so much higher than Walker's that I can see the case for favoring them over what you mentioned. 

I wasn't arguing Walker's numbers over Keplers.    Mad Max is the best hitter in the system this year (hands down).    I was saying that Walker had a better hitting season than the 5 other people Jeremy selected over Walker.    As I tried to compare Walker to Kepler - I guess I was trying to say that Keplers numbers were rare in their own right and allowed "some" argument where as the other 5 don't even compare IMO.      Nothing to do with becoming a better prospect or future value.    Just the 2015 season value alone.    Walker  had special 2015 season.  With the positives and negatives reaching for former Twin comparisons to think about.  Hard to find any.  And his positives have him 1 game from his 3rd championship in 4 years.

Edited by TNLooky2015
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Jeremy Nygaard

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Man, you guys are getting pretty worked up. I'm comfortable putting Walker where I did. I don't think he had a great season. I'm not making a point, I had about 20 guys I considered, then I lined them up. Nothing personal against Walker. And when I do my off-season prospect list, I'll probably rank him lower than the other guys too. Which is OK. That's how opinions work. And I'll read yours and respect that it's your opinion too. But getting worked up that one person of five ranked a player where he did seems excessive.

 

(Although, subconsciously, maybe I do have a deep-rooted hatred towards Walkers from Wisconsin.)

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ThejacKmp

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Why did the Twins not call up Reynaldo Rodriguez in September.  They lack a right handed pinch hit weapon off the bench on days when Torii is playing.  Seems like a nothing-to-lose and everything-to-gain proposition.

 

Also surprised that Beresford didn't get a call up.  Wouldn't want to see him play a ton but he would be useful as a pinch runner/hitter in an extra innings game.  If it gets too crowded in the dugout, have some of those guys watch from the clubhouse until they're needed.

And finally, agree with Jeremy.  I might have ranked ABW a bit higher but he has a right to his opinion and its not based on nothing.  The K's for ABW are an issue which will prevent him from being anything more than a 4th OF in the majors UNLESS he can get them under control.  He is only 23 so that's a strong possibility but he hasn't so far and if you look at this year, he didn't do it yet. That's an issue.

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TNLooky2015 College Ball

TNLooky2015

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Man, you guys are getting pretty worked up. I'm comfortable putting Walker where I did. I don't think he had a great season. I'm not making a point, I had about 20 guys I considered, then I lined them up. Nothing personal against Walker. And when I do my off-season prospect list, I'll probably rank him lower than the other guys too. Which is OK. That's how opinions work. And I'll read yours and respect that it's your opinion too. But getting worked up that one person of five ranked a player where he did seems excessive.

(Although, subconsciously, maybe I do have a deep-rooted hatred towards Walkers from Wisconsin.)

Not worked up.    Never.    Just disagree with your thoughts.    That's what the forum is for, right?   Discussion and points of view.    I respect the right that everyone has the right to think what they feel.    Same fun arguments you and Seth probably have all year.      All in fun.

 

Walker helps guide Lookouts into SL Finals

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150914&content_id=149547528&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_l111&sid=l111

 

Edited by TNLooky2015
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amjgt

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It may seem that I'm worked up, but I'm not. I needed to put that language in there to show how much I disagreed with you.

 

Jeremy, can you please tell us your rationale for having Beresford ahead of Walker? Near as I can tell the ONLY thing that Beresford did better than ABW is getting hits 6.8% more often, half of which was made up for by the higher walk rate.

 

G  ..AB  . R   . H . TB . 2B .3B.. HR .RBI..  BB .SO .SB .CS . AVG. OBP .SLG  OPS 
129 . 498 . 58. 153 .. 179.  21 . 1 .  1 .  50 . 29 . 57 .  2 .  2  . .307 . .341 . .359 . .701 

133 . 502 . 75. 120 .. 250 . 31 . 3 . 31 .106. 51 .195 .13 . 4  . .239 . .309 . .498 . .807

 

Edited by amjgt
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Jeremy Nygaard St Paul Saints

Jeremy Nygaard

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It may seem that I'm worked up, but I'm not. I needed to put that language in there to show how much I disagreed with you.

 

Jeremy, can you please tell us your rationale for having Beresford ahead of Walker? Near as I can tell the ONLY thing that Beresford did better than ABW is getting hits 6.8% more often, half of which was made up for by the higher walk rate.

 

G  ..AB  . R   . H . TB . 2B .3B.. HR .RBI..  BB .SO .SB .CS . AVG. OBP .SLG  OPS 
129 . 498 . 58. 153 .. 179.  21 . 1 .  1 .  50 . 29 . 57 .  2 .  2  . .307 . .341 . .359 . .701 

133 . 502 . 75. 120 .. 250 . 31 . 3 . 31 .106. 51 .195 .13 . 4  . .239 . .309 . .498 . .807

 

Part of my thinking was me subjectively assigning some of the guys bonus points due to "deserving a call-up". I thought Beresford was good enough that he deserved to get a cup of coffee. In the same environment as last year, Beresford got better.

 

Walker, on the other hand, went from the hardest-hitting environment in the minor leagues to one of the easiest hitting environments in the Southern League and his numbers stayed almost identical.

 

Obviously the jump up to AA should count for something, but I just really liked the year Beresford had. He was a sparkplug all year wherever he was in the lineup, which was usually high.

 

Walker batted sixth in a lineup that was stacked for most of the season - but stayed there even when it wasn't.

 

And, probably, part of me wanted to recognize Rodriguez and Beresford because they aren't talked about all the time. And now we're talking about Beresford, so that's a good thing. 

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