Article: WARNE: Could The Twins Be Replacing Mike Pelfrey

[Brandon Warne]

Prodded by a caller on his weekly radio show, Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor admitted the club was exploring their options with regards to the rotation spot of right-hander Mike Pelfrey. A number of factors make the situation difficult, including the shutdown of Jose Berrios, the presence of Tyler Duffey, and the current situations surrounding Phil Hughes and Trevor May.To be clear, the presence of Duffey is simply just that he’s already promoted, and thus not a candidate to take Pelfrey’s rotation spot. May is not stretched out, as he’s worked as a reliever almost exclusively for over two months. There isn’t time, or really a place — short of using him during Chattanooga’s playoff run — to get him lengthened back out. Hughes isn’t healthy enough to return to the rotation yet either, otherwise he might be the natural choice to take Pelfrey’s rotation spot.

 

A possible wild card in the situation is left-hander Logan Darnell, whom the club recalled after his last start with Rochester on Thursday. And if Darnell’s usage is any indication — he threw just 4.2 innings and 45 pitches in that start — he might in fact be the man for the job. A Rochester-based source indicated he was removed for reasons other than ineffect, and his spot to start lines up quite nicely with Pelfrey — who pitched (poorly) on Friday. Darnell has also been a man on fire of late. While he hasn’t pitched at all in the big leagues this year, Darnell took strongly to a late-season move to the rotation. Darnell started in his final five appearances of the season for Rochester and posted a 0.83 ERA and 28-7 K/BB ratio. Opposing batters hit just .185/.228/.210 off Darnell in that stretch, and he’s been especially stingy against left-handed hitters all season, allowing just one extra-base hit (a double) as they’ve collectively batted just .265/.327/.275.

 

Opposing batters haven’t been as kind to Pelfrey, who has allowed a triple-slash line of .298/.354/.404. For context, just 27 of 154 qualified batters across baseball (17.5 percent) have a batting average that high across MLB in this depressed offensive era. Despite starting off well enough even with shaky peripherals, the wheels have come off for Pelfrey since his 2.28 ERA at the 11-start mark of the season. To that point, opposing batters had hit .254/.321/.331 against Pelfrey, which made up for the fact that he had just a 34-19 K/BB ratio through those 67 innings. It’s truly odd that a pitcher with good velocity and a solid splitter still gets barreled up to that extent, but it’s just the truth.

 

Anyway, since mid-June it’s been rough for Pelfrey. Sure, there have been good starts here and there, but the aggregate numbers tell a pretty definitive story: 5.76 ERA, .331/.378/.459 slash against and just 42 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. Pelfrey’s groundball-heavy tendencies (No. 7 in AL at 51.9 percent) keep him from being an unmitigated disaster (just six home runs allowed), but there’s still way too much contact and damage being done. An enterprising team is going to put him in their bullpen, where he’ll turn into a very nice back-end option with a velocity uptick, grounders and what’ll likely be a strong jump in strikeouts. It just doesn’t appear that’ll be the Twins.

 

UPCOMING

 

The Twins are fortunate enough to miss ace Johnny Cueto in the series with the Royals, but won’t be as lucky with the White Sox series that follows. As it currently stands, the Twins are slated to face Chris Sale and Jose Quintana — two of the finest lefties in the junior circuit. And while the Twins have strangely owned Sale all season long — 6.30 ERA versus the Twins, 2.68 against everyone else — this is a guy who’d probably be the AL Cy Young if it weren’t for the fact that his team around him has been a huge disappointment. There is a silver lining here in the series, though: John Danks is slated to start one of the games as well. The Twins have absolutely obliterated Danks through the years (5.76 ERA), and that is even more magnified this season (1.188 OPS, 9.39 ERA).

 

ALLEN vs ANDERSON

 

It’s only the perception of the writer, but it appears that Twins fans have been far more supportive of current pitching coach Neil Allen than his deposed predecessor, Rick Anderson. Whether it’s on Facebook, Twitter or even in sports bars, it seems as though fans have really bought into Allen, despite the fact that stats show a pretty interesting story.

 

Here are the numbers for the 2014 rotation:

 

5.06 ERA/4.03 FIP

6.4 K/9

2.4 BB/9

1.0 HR/9

 

And now, 2015:

 

4.23 ERA/4.19 FIP

6.2 K/9

2.4 BB/9

1.1 HR/9

 

Even if you don’t want to buy FIP’s argument that this rotation is actually worse, it’s not as though you could pick out one or the other out of a crowd of numbers. And I’m not saying you have to believe this year is as bad as last year, but it’s pretty close. It’s just a simple exercise to see if perception mirrors reality. In this case, not really.

 

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[hybridbear]

Quote

An enterprising team is going to put him in their bullpen, where he’ll turn into a very nice back-end option with a velocity uptick, grounders and what’ll likely be a strong jump in strikeouts. It just doesn’t appear that’ll be the Twins.

Why won't the Twins do this?!? They had sent him to the bullpen at the start of the year, until injuries caused him to end up back in the rotation.

 

 The Twins are fortunate enough to miss ace Johnny Cueto in the series with the Royals, but won’t be as lucky with the White Sox series that follows. As it currently stands, the Twins are slated to face Chris Sale and Jose Quintana — two of the finest lefties in the junior circuit.

Cueto has been awful of late & the Twins have figured out Chris Sale. I don't see any reason why the Twins wouldn't have loved the chance to jump all over the struggling Cueto. Also, why should they be upset about facing lefties? The Twins are 4 games over .500 on the season against LHP & exactly at .500 against RHP. They should be glad to face 2 lefties in the White Sox series.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Why won't the Twins do this?!? They had sent him to the bullpen at the start of the year, until injuries caused him to end up back in the rotation.

 

Cueto has been awful of late & the Twins have figured out Chris Sale. I don't see any reason why the Twins wouldn't have loved the chance to jump all over the struggling Cueto. Also, why should they be upset about facing lefties? The Twins are 4 games over .500 on the season against LHP & exactly at .500 against RHP. They should be glad to face 2 lefties in the White Sox series.

 

The Twins were forced to put Pelfrey in the rotation and then until lately, he did nothing that gave you an excuse to remove him.  And even when he started to go downhill, there were injuries to Phil Hughes and ineffectiveness by Santana that made a Pelfrey change not first priority.  Pelfrey seems to either have lost his leash or to maybe have one start left after today.  That seems about right, especially with Hughes looking like he's ramping up to potentially be ready next week.  Maybe one more Pelfrey start or (better yet) a look at Darnell or a skip in the rotation due to the off day tomorrow.

That win loss stat is pretty meaningless - it would be the equivalent of saying that Dallas Keuchel is good because he has 17 wins.  The stats that show the Twins should like seeing some lefties:

team vs. LHP .259/.313/.410/.723
team vs. RHP .243/.298/.395/.692

It's not a massive difference but statistically significant.  It also holds up for starters (what we're talking about really)

 

vs LH Starter .255/.314/.414/.728
vs RH Starter .244/.296/.392/.688

I'll admit I was surprised that the Twins hit starters and relievers about the same.  It would seem to me that relievers would have better numbers.


 

[tobi0040]

I wish this headline was available two months ago.  Put Berrios in there.

[Eris]

 

 It’s truly odd that a pitcher with good velocity and a solid splitter still gets barreled up to that extent, but it’s just the truth.

 

 

Your comments reminded me of Jim Hoey (acquired from Baltimore in the J.J. Hardy trade).  98 mph fastball and a very good splitter.  Like Pelfrey, his problem was poor control.  Most MLB hitters can hit a good pitch if it is in their zone.  A splitter that starts above the knees and drops to the ankles is almost unhittable.  One that starts at the letters and drops to the waist, down the middle of the plate--well that can be hit along way.  At the beginning to the season, Pelfrey did a great job putting his splitter on the outside edge of the plate (to left handed batters) and this pitch would drop down and outside.  At that location, it was an almost unhittable pitch (If I remember correctly, there is a video breakdown of this pitch someplace on TD).  Also, being behind in a count would lessen a pitchers willingness to throw a splitter, and Pelfrey always seems to be behind in his counts.  It is almost painful to watch him.

 

Link to article on Hoey:  http://www.twincities.com/golf/ci_17417340

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here are the numbers for the 2014 rotation:

5.06 ERA/4.03 FIP
6.4 K/9
2.4 BB/9
1.0 HR/9

And now, 2015:

4.23 ERA/4.19 FIP
6.2 K/9
2.4 BB/9
1.1 HR/9

Rotations like the Twins' 2011-2014 rotations are an example of the weakness of FIP/xFIP. If a pitcher is really bad, it tends to break those stats because FIP/xFIP assume a pitcher has a relative level of competence and isn't getting drilled every time contact is made with the ball.

 

This isn't an indictment of FIP/xFIP, though... It's an indictment of those rotations. They were terrible and most of the rotation underperformed their advanced metrics by a healthy margin.

 

Also, I'm sure terrible OF defense helped balloon those old ERAs while the more advanced metrics try to weed out that statistical noise.

 

In short, FIP/xFIP are not a good indication of the relative quality of the 2014 vs. 2015 rotations. The 2015 rotation is considerably better, both because the Twins have better pitchers and because they have better defenders behind those pitchers.

 

Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson had a lower FIP than ERA in 2014 while everybody else had a higher ERA than FIP (anywhere between a few percentage points to 2+ runs). Advanced metrics can't seem to accurately track pitchers who are so terrible that "luck percentages" don't seem to apply because they don't give up an expected level of medium/hard hit contact.

 

Long story short, 85mph pitching machines seem to "break" advanced metrics and the 2014 Twins had the majority of their starts come from 85mph pitching machines.

[Steve Lein]

It’s only the perception of the writer, but it appears that Twins fans have been far more supportive of current pitching coach Neil Allen than his deposed predecessor, Rick Anderson. Whether it’s on Facebook, Twitter or even in sports bars, it seems as though fans have really bought into Allen, despite the fact that stats show a pretty interesting story.

 

Here are the numbers for the 2014 rotation:

 

5.06 ERA/4.03 FIP

6.4 K/9

2.4 BB/9

1.0 HR/9

 

And now, 2015:

 

4.23 ERA/4.19 FIP

6.2 K/9

2.4 BB/9

1.1 HR/9

 

 

 

Well, it is pretty obvious to me that the similarities in those numbers is directly attributed to the differing seasons from Phil Hughes.

 

Put his 2014 numbers into 2015, and it would be pretty obvious 2015's starters as a whole are vastly superior. Meaning everyone else in 2015 has been a good deal better than 2014's versions.

 

So yes, I would say quite easily that Allen deserves the support.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Steve Lein

[Brandon Warne]

 

Your comments reminded me of Jim Hoey (acquired from Baltimore in the J.J. Hardy trade).  98 mph fastball and a very good splitter.  Like Pelfrey, his problem was poor control.  Most MLB hitters can hit a good pitch if it is in their zone.  A splitter that starts above the knees and drops to the ankles is almost unhittable.  One that starts at the letters and drops to the waist, down the middle of the plate--well that can be hit along way.  At the beginning to the season, Pelfrey did a great job putting his splitter on the outside edge of the plate (to left handed batters) and this pitch would drop down and outside.  At that location, it was an almost unhittable pitch (If I remember correctly, there is a video breakdown of this pitch someplace on TD).  Also, being behind in a count would lessen a pitchers willingness to throw a splitter, and Pelfrey always seems to be behind in his counts.  It is almost painful to watch him.

 

Link to article on Hoey:  http://www.twincities.com/golf/ci_17417340

With Hoey it was control, with Pelfrey I think it's command.

[Rosterman]

I'm sure Darnell is on the call if Pelfrey starts up short this round. I say get Logan up and throwing before the third inning, just in case. It would be an opportunity for Logan to cememnt a spot in the Twins organization. He needs a looksee as much as we need to see Pelfrey increase his own value for his pending free ageency. I say go with the guy you might want to keep rather than the one who will be walking away after the season.

 

Plus, Logan is a lefty. You like those, sometimes...if they get guys out. If nothing else, give Logan a chance to see if he should remain in the bullpen mix for 2016 (and where is Aaron Thompson...if you aren't going to recall him, them swap his 40-man spot out for another player...who you might want to look at...or reward (Beresford) for service to the organization. Stuff like that goes a long ways, sometimes.)

[stringer bell]

I see numbers like ERA (for starters, not relievers) as showing what players have done. FIP and xFIP are predictors, sometimes on the button, sometimes way off. FIP and xFIP predict the Twins starters to be pretty lousy going forward. Given the composition of the rotation, I can't dispute that. Through the All-Star break, the pitching staff (and starters in particular) had overperformed their predictors considerably. Regression has occurred and stung Pelfrey and Gibson particularly hard. There are 24 games remaining, each one (I hope) will be crucial. The manager has to determine which guys will give him the best chance of winning. He's giving the ball to Pelfrey tonight, a pitch-to-contact pitcher against a pitch-to-contact lineup. I hope Pelf holds them down and the Twins can score a half dozen again tonight.

[nicksaviking]

I don't understand how the Twins are going to be able to bring back and stretch out Phil Hughes after a month off but not Trevor May who at least has been pitching. 

 

As for the pitching coach comparison, I don't know that I have much to compare at this point.  I don't like all the vets in the rotation, I want them gone in favor of the young arms.  I'm not going to judge Allen on a bunch of 30+ year-old vets, those aren't the guys who need coaching up and he has little control over the physical decline that comes with that territory.  If he's had anything to do with May and/or Duffey's unexpected successes, that's where I'd put most of my weight.

 

However I would like to know if Hughes' declining velocity and strikeouts have anything to do with any changes Allen has suggested.  He'd get a pretty huge strike against him in my book if he's promoting those out of date philosophies.

[jimbo92107]

Pelfrey's problem has been command of his fork ball, which he lost after the first half. Before this season Pelfrey was basically a two-pitch guy that struggled after the second time through the order. His fastball is his bread and butter, bending left and right low in the zone. Unfortunately, after seeing it a couple times, hitters barrel it up and start driving it. Pelf's benders are at best average, and he doesn't throw them well enough to strike out a lot of guys.

 

Enter the fork ball, Pelfrey's third and most difficult pitch to hit and throw. When he had command of the fork, Pelf could dangle it belt to ankle, getting lots of whiffs. Now without it, he's back to being a two-pitch guy. Frankly, that's bull pen stuff.

 

This might be a very good time to give a starter tryout to Logan Darnell. Maybe he's better than we realized, like Tyler Duffey. Why not find out.

[Dr. Evil]

Pelf should end up being gone after the season to make room for....gulp....Nolasco.

[stringer bell]

I see that the Twins will use the off-day to skip Duffey's next start. To the point of the OP, Pelfrey absolutely has to pitch well tonight or they will go with other alternatives. I don't see May starting any more games while the Twins have a chance to make postseason, especially with the injury to Perkins. They need him in the bullpen.

 

Darnell did not impress me when he pitched for the Twins last year. He started shaky at AAA, but was very good the last couple months, including about a month as a starter. To me, he is a AAAA guy, as are Dean and Bowden, and perhaps also Rogers, although I think Rogers can be a solid bullpen option.

[stringer bell]

I do pretty much agree with what Jimbo said above. Pelfrey's fastball is OK, but it isn't dominant. His breaking ball isn't a plus pitch, so he went with the split-finger. However, he's never had command of the split, he got a lot of people to swing at it, but not many were in the strike zone. The key here is that in order for the split to be at all effective, Pelfrey needs to be ahead in the count. It seems he has been 2-0, 2-1 almost all the time. Both control and command of his fastball have been issues in the second half of the season.

[D. Hocking]

I originally read the title could WARNE be replacing Pelfry, and thought I did not know he could pitch, but it is worth a try.  I am kind of disappointed this won't be happening.

[Willihammer]

 

Pelfrey's problem has been command of his fork ball, which he lost after the first half. Before this season Pelfrey was basically a two-pitch guy that struggled after the second time through the order. His fastball is his bread and butter, bending left and right low in the zone. Unfortunately, after seeing it a couple times, hitters barrel it up and start driving it. Pelf's benders are at best average, and he doesn't throw them well enough to strike out a lot of guys.

 

Enter the fork ball, Pelfrey's third and most difficult pitch to hit and throw. When he had command of the fork, Pelf could dangle it belt to ankle, getting lots of whiffs. Now without it, he's back to being a two-pitch guy. Frankly, that's bull pen stuff.

 

This might be a very good time to give a starter tryout to Logan Darnell. Maybe he's better than we realized, like Tyler Duffey. Why not find out.

Yeah, I think that's the difference. He hasn't been able to command the splitter since early August.

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I originally read the title could WARNE be replacing Pelfry, and thought I did not know he could pitch, but it is worth a try.  I am kind of disappointed this won't be happening.

 

I would like the paycheck, but somehow my shoulder is shredded. Not joking. I showed up to play baseball this spring and couldn't throw anymore. As a first baseman it isn't a huge deal....but how did it happen in the first place?!

[Monkeypaws]

Funny thing about Pelf: his ERa is still quite a bit less than Hughes, Santana, or Nolasco.

 

Granted, he has sucked of late, but he did contribute earlier in the season.

 

Another case of "what have you done for me lately"?

 

I do think he is a beloved teammate with a sense of humor, for what it's worth.

 

Don't know the advanced stat for that....

[David HK]

Pelfrey's problem has been command of his fork ball, which he lost after the first half. Before this season Pelfrey was basically a two-pitch guy that struggled after the second time through the order. His fastball is his bread and butter, bending left and right low in the zone. Unfortunately, after seeing it a couple times, hitters barrel it up and start driving it. Pelf's benders are at best average, and he doesn't throw them well enough to strike out a lot of guys.

 

Enter the fork ball, Pelfrey's third and most difficult pitch to hit and throw. When he had command of the fork, Pelf could dangle it belt to ankle, getting lots of whiffs. Now without it, he's back to being a two-pitch guy. Frankly, that's bull pen stuff.

 

This hits it right on the head. With Pelf in the pen, they wouldn't get the chance to that 2-3 times, and he cd have been a real weapon out there. Molly and TR just blew it, blew it badly.

[Thrylos]

I read this as replacing Pelfrey during the off-season vs. extending him

 

phew

 

 

[jimbo92107]

Pelf should end up being gone after the season to make room for....gulp....Nolasco.

Ricky Nolasco has been a good pitcher in the past, and next spring he should be completely healthy for the first time in a few years. Who knows, maybe he'll look great. Twins have gotten stung both ways by injuries - guys getting hurt here, and guys getting healthy after they leave.

[wickedslider]

I do pretty much agree with what Jimbo said above. Pelfrey's fastball is OK, but it isn't dominant. His breaking ball isn't a plus pitch, so he went with the split-finger. However, he's never had command of the split, he got a lot of people to swing at it, but not many were in the strike zone. The key here is that in order for the split to be at all effective, Pelfrey needs to be ahead in the count. It seems he has been 2-0, 2-1 almost all the time. Both control and command of his fastball have been issues in the second half of the season.

Please forgive my ignorance. What is the difference between control and command of a pitch such as a fastball for instance? I've heardthe terms but thought they were interchangeable. Thanks.

[Blackjack]

Looks like after last nights performance that Pelfrey will be in the rotation the rest of the year.

[USAFChief]

Please forgive my ignorance. What is the difference between control and command of a pitch such as a fastball for instance? I've heardthe terms but thought they were interchangeable. Thanks.

In general, control has come to mean the ability to throw enough strikes to avoid walks.

 

Command has come to mean the ability to throw quality strikes, locating within the strike zone.

[Major League Ready]

 

Ricky Nolasco has been a good pitcher in the past, and next spring he should be completely healthy for the first time in a few years. Who knows, maybe he'll look great. Twins have gotten stung both ways by injuries - guys getting hurt here, and guys getting healthy after they leave.

I hope another team believes he will return to form next year and takes him off our hands this off-season.  I don't care if we get a dozen balls in return.  May needs to be in the rotation.  If May gets the last spot in the rotation, Milone, Duffey, and Berrios contribute based on injury.   Nobody seems to care about Milone but he let the least amount of runs cross the plate per 9 and that is a pretty important stat.

 

One of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana have to go.  In that order for my liking.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope another team believes he will return to form next year and takes him off our hands this off-season.  I don't care if we get a dozen balls in return.  May needs to be in the rotation.  If May gets the last spot in the rotation, Milone, Duffey, and Berrios contribute based on injury.   Nobody seems to care about Milone but he let the least amount of runs cross the plate per 9 and that is a pretty important stat.

 

One of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana have to go.  In that order for my liking.

 

This. 100% this.

 

I'm surprised we didn't read about a Pelfrey extension this am, after last night*

 

*it should be obvious this is a joke, but just in case, I'm adding the asterisk

[70charger]

 

In general, control has come to mean the ability to throw enough strikes to avoid walks.

Command has come to mean the ability to throw quality strikes, locating within the strike zone.

 

I've kind of wondered about this too. So if you have command, you must have control. If you have control, you don't necessarily have command?

[Willihammer]

Its one of those things scouts made up because it makes them feel important. Like the idea of "bat speed." Funny, no one ever considers "bat weight" or "bat length" in that equation. Not to mention swing mechanics. "Control" and "command" are the same thing, you can use both interchangeably.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've kind of wondered about this too. So if you have command, you must have control. If you have control, you don't necessarily have command?

The two are sometimes used interchangeably but yeah, that's about right.