Article: Long Range: The New Twins Outfield

[Nick Nelson]

On Saturday night, the Minnesota Twins debuted an outfield alignment that figures to be quite common in the coming years: Eddie Rosario in left, Byron Buxton in center, Aaron Hicks in right.

 

With all three possessing excellent range and arm strength, it has the potential to become one of the best defensive units in the majors. So it's only fitting that Saturday's game ended with Buxton making a great running catch with the bases loaded and two outs to salvage a victory.Kevin Jepsen, who was awarded a save after narrowly protecting the ninth-inning lead in that game, was certainly grateful to Buxton for bailing him out. And that's a feeling that will be shared by many Twins pitchers going forward.

 

Run prevention has been a sizable issue for Minnesota over the past several seasons, and lousy outfield defense has been an overlooked culprit in that equation. Sure, it doesn't help when your pitchers are allowing the opposition to put everything in play, but that weakness is magnified substantially when nobody's tracking anything down in the vast green expanses that comprise the outfields in major-league parks.

 

Last year, trudgers Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia were the primary recipients of playing time in the outfield corners for a Twins team whose pitchers allowed the fifth-highest percentage of fly balls in baseball. It should come as no surprise that Minnesota converted batted balls into outs at a lower rate than any other MLB team.

 

They entered this season with Arcia and Torii Hunter in the corners, representing a minimal upgrade if any. But over the course of the season, Arcia has banished himself to the minors and Hunter has shown his age. Meanwhile, a new wave of youngsters has entered (or in one case reentered) the picture.

 

Defense enthusiasts have long anticipated a day where Rosario, Buxton and Hicks would all share the same outfield. It was an eventuality delayed by injuries, first to Hicks and then to Buxton, but it finally became reality on Saturday night. Coincidentally, Ervin Santana was the starting pitcher for the Twins in that game.

 

The Twins signed Santana to a four-year deal during the offseason, locking him up through 2018. Eleven days later, they signed Phil Hughes to a three-year extension, committing to him through 2019. Those two starters are now the most deeply entrenched members of the rotation going forward. And fortunately, they figure to benefit as much as anyone from this outstanding group of outfielders.

 

Santana and Hughes don't have a ton of commonalities as pitchers, but they do have this one: both tend to give up a lot of fly balls and line drives. This can manifest in bad ways, as we've seen this year; the pair has combined to give up 39 home runs in 35 starts.

 

For fly ball pitchers, the long balls can come in sporadic bunches, often attributable to bad luck as much as anything, but the high volume of balls hit in the air to the outfield is inherently constant. Hurlers like Santana and Hughes rely heavily on the players behind them to prevent baseballs from dropping onto the grass, and that's what made the idea of an Arcia/Robinson/Hunter trio so groan-inducing at the outset.

 

An alignment of Rosario, Buxton and Hicks essentially gives the Twins three center fielders ranging around out there. It's not an exaggeration to suggest that each has a realistic shot at being an elite fielder at his respective position. We've already seen all three players make countless game-changing plays with their gloves and arms.

 

Hopefully they can all do enough with their bats to keep themselves in the lineup for a long time, because watching them play in the same outfield is a treat, and if you want evidence of how valuable a top-tier defensive outfield can be, look no further than the team the Twins are currently facing in Kansas City.

 

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[Shane Wahl]

Absolutely. And the Twins should trade from depth here (Arcia).

[jimmer]

For clarification, when you wrote: 'Run prevention has been a sizable issue for Minnesota over the past several seasons, and lousy outfield defense has been an overlooked culprit in that equation' did you mean by team leadership?  Cause I think it's been a glaringly obvious, extremely detrimental weakness for quite some time including going into this season.  I understand some minimize the importance of defense, especially OF defense (specifically corner OF defense), but plenty weren't in that camp.

Edited September 9, 2015 by jimmer

[mumoo13]

If we had to trade one of them to make room for someone like Kepler, which would you want to trade? My feeling is Hicks since he is a bit older, but I could also see Rosario due to his lack of walks.

[hybridbear]

Brings me back to the days of the Soul Patrol outfield... It's so great to see good outfield defense!

[USAFChief]

Chalk me up as "minimizing" the effect of corner OF defense. I certainly won't turn down having fast guys in the corners (not only on defense, but speed helps the offense) but I want corner guys who can hit.

 

Nobody wins a pennant based on corner OF defense. There's too little delta between plays made/not made to make much difference.

[nicksaviking]

 

Chalk me up as "minimizing" the effect of corner OF defense. I certainly won't turn down having fast guys in the corners (not only on defense, but speed helps the offense) but I want corner guys who can hit.

Nobody wins a pennant based on corner OF defense. There's too few plays to make much difference.

 

I'm with Chief.  It's better to have it than to not have it, but for the corner OF spots, I'd prioritize offense.  Hopefully you can have both.

 

Playing RF at Target Field is almost like playing racketball anyway; there's hardly any ground to cover, you just have to know how to play the bounce off of the wall.

[Monkeypaws]

I've been surprised by Rosario and his arm. 15 assists puts him 2nd in the AL, 1 behind Garcia of the CWS. Not bad for a rookie.

 

To think he was being groomed as a 2nd baseman just a couple years ago.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, KC seems to do with light/medium hitting corner OF who play good to elite defense, so I think you are still under rating OF defense.

 

IF I was trading one to make room for Kepler (which I wouldn't do, but that was  the question), I'd deal Hicks. IMO, he's the least likely to hit and field, but some team will see this year as a corner turner and offer value for him.

[USAFChief]

Well, KC seems to do with light/medium hitting corner OF who play good to elite defense, so I think you are still under rating OF defense.

 

IF I was trading one to make room for Kepler (which I wouldn't do, but that was  the question), I'd deal Hicks. IMO, he's the least likely to hit and field, but some team will see this year as a corner turner and offer value for him.

I don't think KC is winning primarily because of corner OF defense.

 

I'd trade Rosario before Hicks, but like you I'd keep all three current OFers, at least for 2016.

[Dantes929]

 

Chalk me up as "minimizing" the effect of corner OF defense. I certainly won't turn down having fast guys in the corners (not only on defense, but speed helps the offense) but I want corner guys who can hit.

Nobody wins a pennant based on corner OF defense. There's too little delta between plays made/not made to make much difference.

Pennants are won based on everything.    Being elite in defense in one area can be game changing.   I would make the contention that last year Kansas City may have won the wild card spot on the strength of Gordon's defense.    15 assists means 15 runners you have kept from advancing while also recording an out.  It can also mean keeping other runners from even trying.   Now add in balls tracked down vs falling based on range and the conclusion seems rather obvious that the difference between Delmon Young and Alex Gordon or the difference between Rosario and Willingham can change the results of game which changes the results of pennants.  

I watched a 3 games series a few years back and saw plays made by Tampa that I didn't think possible and plays not made by Dyoung, etc that should have been made and they all seemed like high leverage plays.    There was plenty of delta there and I believe it made the difference in two of the games.   Of course offense is a huge component but its simple math.    The guy that creates 20 runs above replacement offensively but gives up 5 defensively should be less valuable than a guy that creates 12 offensively and saves 5 defensively.   

[Willihammer]

Buxton's going to need a good long optional assignment in 2016 so I would not trade anyone right now. They'll have room in a corner for Arcia then Kepler if necessary.

 

As for Rosario, Sickels wrote a piece on him last week and said he thinks  Rosario's operating at the upper boundary of his talents, based on his rough approach. Its hard to disagree although staying at this boundary would mean we're talking about a 2-3 Win player.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/3/9244289/minor-league-ball-mailbag-can-eddie-rosario-of-the-twins-improve

 

Also this if it wasn't posted already. That HR off Josh Tomlin a couple weeks back was remarkable:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/

[nytwinsfan]

 

Nobody wins a pennant based on corner OF defense. There's too little delta between plays made/not made to make much difference.

You have zero data to back this up. It is just pure conventional wisdom and rhetoric.

 

For instance, last year, Alex Gordon provided 2.6 WAR from defense alone, according to Baseball Reference. The Mariners were 2 games behind KC in the Wild Card. So it is actually quite possible, if not more likely than not, that if you had replaced Alex Gordon with a replacement level defensive outfielder that had the same hitting profile as Gordon (which was also quite good), the Royals would not have made the playoffs and therefore the WS.

 

Obviously CF defense matters more than either corner outfielder's defense (although together both corners' defense matters more). See here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/12/12/5200348/visualizing-outfield-defense-and-positional-adjustments

 

But that is a far cry from meaning that corner outfield defense, especially when you combine the value of both corner outfielders, doesn't matter. In the end, everything is a trade off. If you have a really good hitter who provides no or negative defensive value, and a decent hitter that also provides decent defensive value (e.g., Rosario) then you have to compare the two and see which provides more value on the margin.  But just because CF tend to provide more defensive value and corner outfielders tend to provide more offensive value, there is no reason a team should prefer to get its defensive value from CF and its offensive value from corner OF. Obviously all that matters is maximizing overall value over some time horizon (season, decade, whatever).

 

EDIT: I see Dantes929 made a similar post that while I was writing mine. I completely agree with him. I think we are on the same page.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Buxton's going to need a good long optional assignment in 2016 so I would not trade anyone right now. They'll have room in a corner for Arcia then Kepler if necessary.

 

As for Rosario, Sickels wrote a piece on him last week and said he thinks  Rosario's operating at the upper boundary of his talents, based on his rough approach. Its hard to disagree although staying at this boundary would mean we're talking about a 2-3 Win player.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/3/9244289/minor-league-ball-mailbag-can-eddie-rosario-of-the-twins-improve

 

Also this if it wasn't posted already. That HR off Josh Tomlin a couple weeks back was remarkable:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/

 

That is a good point on Rosario and his likely ceiling.......maybe I just don't trust Hicks enough right now.

[KGB]

 

You have zero data to back this up. It is just pure conventional wisdom and rhetoric.

 

 

Would the World Series Champions Giants be an example of a team without great fielding OF’s winning?

Gordon & Cain are both great fielders and hitters.  KC had a choice to go with a light hitter and great fielder in Dyson, but signed Alec Rios who is more of a hitter than fielder.  Cain is the perfect 4th outfielder, but not your everyday player.

Buxton should be a good hitter to go along with the great fielding.  If you keep a one of Hicks/Rosario and find a power hitting corner outfielder, you have a more balance team and shouldn’t hurt your outfield defense by much since Buxton is so good in center.

[HitInAPinch]

I like all the "Buxton runs really fast and catches the ball" stuff.  Hey, he has a pretty good arm, too.  But he's still GOT to hit and have a much better OBP.  If he doesn't greatly improve over the last few weeks of the season and in Spring Training, Buxton's in for a 3rd trip back to AAA.  Just like Hicks did.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I like all the "Buxton runs really fast and catches the ball" stuff.  Hey, he has a pretty good arm, too.  But he's still GOT to hit and have a much better OBP.  If he doesn't greatly improve over the last few weeks of the season and in Spring Training, Buxton's in for a 3rd trip back to AAA.  Just like Hicks did.

 

I hate to agree, but I agree. I am reading more national people wondering if he can really hit or not (some were questioning that months ago).

[HitInAPinch]

 

I hate to agree, but I agree. I am reading more national people wondering if he can really hit or not (some were questioning that months ago).

I readily admit I was one of those guys.  Same things were said about Hicks and Buxton is pretty much the same point Hicks was earlier this year:  his hitting mechanics are a little messy in the lower trunk.  Hicks got fixed by using the "step in the bucket" approach.  Buxton's front foot is still tapping around too much.  At some point, Buxton needs to commit that front foot before he can hit.

[Mike Sixel]

My agreement was that he'll go down some next year, not that he can't hit. I have no idea if he can hit long term or not.

[Rosterman]

The twins have the Arcia issue. Do they want to give him away, or find space for him on a bench that could be crowded with Vargas, Pinto and, perhaps, Sano if Plouffe stays around.

 

The Twins also have future prospects Adam Walker and Max Kepler. Because of a lack of opportunity, both will stay at AAA Rochester next season and though either could be a call-up, they might not get any real action until 2017. Kepler could also be the first baseman of the future, circa 2018, depending on Mauer and where you eventually want him to end up (Boston). 

 

We may complain about the lack of walks that a guy takes (anyone remember someone named Kirby Puckett). And although Buxton is struggling in his rookie season, as did Hicks, the tools do start to shine thru. But right now, Rosario is not an elite outfielder. He has strengths, to be sure, as Dozier does at second base. Hicks has found something, but can he repeat, and after next season, you have to look at signing him longterm or him being too expensive for what you are getting. And, do you want a power player in the outfield (Walker perhaps, or even Arcia).

 

It is a luxury of riches right now in which there is little room for a Shane Robinson and only room for a Torii Hunter if you feel his bench bat and clubhouse presence far outweighs the need to keep Arcia for another year and Vargas as backup DH/1B, assuming Plouffe stays and Sano is the DH.

 

The odd man out in this mix is Pinto.

 

And there seems to be any number of fourth outfielders that the Twins can call upon in a pinch from their own system over the next two seasons at least so they don't need to find an AAAA veteran.

 

I was thinking lineup for 2016:

 

Buxton

Hicks

Dozier

Sano

Rosario

Plouffe

Mauer

Suzuki

Escobar

 

[stringer bell]

 

I like all the "Buxton runs really fast and catches the ball" stuff.  Hey, he has a pretty good arm, too.  But he's still GOT to hit and have a much better OBP.  If he doesn't greatly improve over the last few weeks of the season and in Spring Training, Buxton's in for a 3rd trip back to AAA.  Just like Hicks did.

Buxton has one trip to AAA, he was sent there for rehab and then optioned. If he were optioned to start (wouldn't surprise me), that would be his second trip to Rochester. Buxton goes back far better than Hicks in center, and seems to get better jumps, so with his speed he is a pretty terrific center fielder. The hitting will take awhile, but I fully expect him to be an offensive weapon sometime in 2016. BTW, comparing Hicks to Buxton isn't apples to apples because Buxton is still just 21 years old, Hicks didn't make his debut until he was 23 and was optioned the last time at age 25.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I like all the "Buxton runs really fast and catches the ball" stuff.  Hey, he has a pretty good arm, too.  But he's still GOT to hit and have a much better OBP.  If he doesn't greatly improve over the last few weeks of the season and in Spring Training, Buxton's in for a 3rd trip back to AAA.  Just like Hicks did.

LOL. Obviously everyone realizes Buxton is going to have to hit (and walk) more. Yes, he might need to start at AAA next season, but obviously that wouldn't be "just like Hicks." Hicks was 25 when he had his third trip to AAA. Buxton will be 22.

Edited September 9, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not ready to trade anyone there right now unless I get blown away (other than Plouffe).  Buxton isn't ready.  He needs some AAA time in 2016.  Arcia would be selling low and is out of options.  Kepler is on the rise, and I'd be OK with him in RF on opening day or in AAA.  I'd probably trade Plouffe, move Sano to 3B, install Arcia as the primary DH, and roll with Kepler in RF (or roll with Arcia in RF with Vargas DHing).  I'd target a 4th OF FA on a 1 year deal who won't be a horrible plan B if both Buxton, Arcia, and Kepler struggle.

[stringer bell]

My very preliminary 2016 roster has Arcia as the fourth OF, getting at-bats as a DH as well to start the season. If Plouffe isn't moved, there is really no place for Vargas. I am pretty sure Kepler won't make the team out of spring training, but I do expect him to make his debut early in 2016, if not when the Southern League playoffs are over this fall.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I'm not ready to trade anyone there right now unless I get blown away (other than Plouffe).  Buxton isn't ready.  He needs some AAA time in 2016.  Arcia would be selling low and is out of options.  Kepler is on the rise, and I'd be OK with him in RF on opening day or in AAA.  I'd probably trade Plouffe, move Sano to 3B, install Arcia as the primary DH, and roll with Kepler in RF (or roll with Arcia in RF with Vargas DHing).  I'd target a 4th OF FA on a 1 year deal who won't be a horrible plan B if both Buxton, Arcia, and Kepler struggle.

 

My very preliminary 2016 roster has Arcia as the fourth OF, getting at-bats as a DH as well to start the season. If Plouffe isn't moved, there is really no place for Vargas. I am pretty sure Kepler won't make the team out of spring training, but I do expect him to make his debut early in 2016, if not when the Southern League playoffs are over this fall.

 

I guess I agree with both of you guys on everything except Arcia. While I am totally in the camp of NOT GIVING UP ON ARCIA, I don't understand the idea of starting him on the 25-man next spring. He really needs to prove his head and bat are in the right place next spring, so unless he is on fire in spring training, I would start him at AAA. Vargas or Kepler can start at DH. And if that doesn't work, there is always Nunez for DH.

Edited September 9, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[stringer bell]

 

I guess I agree with both of you guys on everything except Arcia. While I am totally in the camp of NOT GIVING UP ON ARCIA, I don't understand the idea of starting him on the 25-man next spring. He really needs to prove his head and bat are in the right place next spring, so unless he is on fire in spring training, I would start him at AAA. Vargas or Kepler can start at DH. And if that doesn't work, there is always Nunez for DH.

Can't do it. He has used his last option this year. If he doesn't make the Twins, they would have to DFA him to get him to Rochester and with the success he had the last two years, someone would claim him.

[Steve Penz]

I am really concerned about Rosario.  Two words- Danny Santana.  Two more words- Sophomore Slump.  I think when Rosario was younger her was a better hitting prospect but he did not light up the last few years in the minors.  He could grow and do well as he obviously an athlete but a sub .300 obp is horrible and it will get exploited more as time passes.  He hits but that is the only way he gets on base.  Alex Gordon has been mentioned in this thread and there is debate about the effect of solid corner defense.  What about his .395 obp this year (when healthy)?  For that reason I hope they can start the year with Buxton, Hicks, Kepler and Rosario in the OF and put the emphasis on Kepler over Rosario.  If his plate approach carries over to the next levels he is already way ahead.  He has only played in AA but it is a good risk.  Also, folks need to let go of the put-out stats.  Rosario's throws have been great but they are not necessary if runners are not going.  A lot of people can make those throws.  We should trade none of the above.  That is an athletic and exciting crew with more than 2 people who can play some CF.        

Edited September 9, 2015 by Steve Penz

[TheLeviathan]

I'm really not worried about Rosario, not every guy who is successful has to fit a certain mold.  The guy has an edge to his game and tremendous plate coverage with his swing.  He should work a bit on drawing more walks but he's nowhere close to the concern Danny Santana was.

 

The Twins need to decide who the odd man out is this offseason - Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, or Kepler and aggressively shop them this offseason.

[stringer bell]

There was a thread about a month ago when Rosario was going pretty well and the overwhelming consensus was that Rosario might regress, but his performance wasn't fueled by an out-of-this-world BABIB, as Santana's was.

 

I don't expect Rosario to ever be a patient hitter, but I expect his discipline will increase after he has seen most of the pitchers in the league. He's already been a good player for the team as a rookie. A little fine-tuning could make him better, but not a superstar.

 

Rosario's defense undoubtedly has value, not only for the extra outs he generates by throwing out runners, but for runners not taking an extra base, respecting his strong accurate arm. Not all assists are the same and I would say Rosario has had more than his share of "wow!" throws, rather than getting an assist by hitting the cutoff man who catches a runner wandering too far or trying to catch the Twins napping.

 

 

[Dantes929]

First of all lets cut way more slack for Buxton.    He has extremely quick hands without loading at all.   Reminds me of Molitor in that regard.    He has struggled to start at other levels as well.   I don't know if Rosario is the real deal offensively.   I don't expect this to happen but a platoon of Hicks and Rosario might be the best option.     Who knows?    Add Kepler and Arcia to the mix and the Twins have a lot of options and hopefully excitement for their future outfield.