Ryan: Berrios will NOT be called up in September

[drjim]

 

I think it'll be like 13 days for the to 'get ready' next year. 

 

I think you are mistaken here. Pitchers and hitters roll differently.

 

They'll have a plan A rotation without Berrios out of the gate and he won't come up until an injury or poor performance.  I do think the presence of Berrios will make the rope shorter to pull someone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I didn't forget. Fryer is one of only three healthy major league catchers in the organization. Free Agents are automatically off the roster until/unless the are re-signed. Fien and Nunez are effective MLB players, who in the worst case are trade-able. IMO Ryan made the right decision on Berrios,( and Jepsen by the way). I'll take the evaluations of Ryan and his staff ahead of the amateur scouts who I have read here.

 

Since you've persistently made the claim that we will lose good talent to Rule 5 this winter if we called up Berrios, care to actually present what the 40-man roster could look like at that time, and thus what actual players we would be protecting and what players we could lose?

 

It's very easy to speak in generalized terms of losing/protecting talent, but if you get into the specifics (as I have done previously in recent Berrios threads), I think you will see there isn't really a shortage of 40-man space, nor an abundance of good talent needing protection.

 

I think Berrios wasn't in TR's plan for this year at all, so that's why it gets brought up as another excuse, but in terms of actually contributing to his recent decision to shut him down, I think 40-man and Rule 5 issues count for zero percent.

 

Although if you think perennial minor league free agent Eric Fryer will require special roster protection in November 2015, I can see how your perspective on this whole issue would be skewed.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it'll be like 13 days for the to 'get ready' next year.

The argument being made by some is that he is not ready for the majors. I assume, then, he will need plenty of time next year to get ready. Your argument is that it is all about control, which is a different discussion.

[markos]

 

The argument being made by some is that he is not ready for the majors. I assume, then, he will need plenty of time next year to get ready. Your argument is that it is all about control, which is a different discussion.

The argument, at least how I see it, isn't whether or not Berrios is ready for a major league look. I think he is clearly ready. However, the argument is about whether or not the Twins are in a position to give him that look knowing there is a real possibly that he will be terrible. He actually might not pitch well enough to help the team right now. Lots of really good pitchers have struggled on their initial callups. Carlos Martinez had a 5.08 ERA during his initial callup. Chris Archer had a 4.60 ERA in his callup. Archie Bradley had a 5.80 ERA. Julio Teheran hada 5.19 ERA. Heck, even Jose Fernandez had a 4.50 ERA after the first 5 starts of his career. Those are hardly solid numbers, and they were all just as well regarded as Berrios. And just in our recent experience we've seen Alex Meyer, Trevor May and Tyler Duffy all get bombed in their first appearances.

 

Right now, in the middle of a tight pennant race, each future win/loss has a huge impact on the Twins playoff chances. There is real risk in giving Berrios a few starts or a bunch of high-leverage relief innings if he needs any kind of adjustment time. The risk could be lowered by giving him low-leverage innings, but I have zero interest in blowing a year of control so he can do mop-up work. Maybe that risk is worth it for the potential benefit of having a great arm if Berrios hits the ground running. I think we all balance that risk-reward differently. But for what it's worth, I haven't seen anyone present thorough evidence (other than a handful of cherry-picked examples) that top prospects are always or even predominately above-average during their first 10-20 innings in the big leagues. If someone has seen or done that research, I'd love to see it, and I will change my mind accordingly. But right now I think think that Berrios, like many, many other pitchers, will most likely need an adjustment period in the big leagues where he will be pretty terrible, and the Twins are not in a position to afford that right now. Next spring is different. Part of his adjustment period will be facing big league hitters in spring training, where there is zero risk if he bombs. And then any starts in April/May just don't have the same impact.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The argument being made by some is that he is not ready for the majors. I assume, then, he will need plenty of time next year to get ready. Your argument is that it is all about control, which is a different discussion.

 

Correct.. I personally think it's almost solely about innings... And also the 40 man roster at this point. Since that's the case, I think it'd be silly not to factor in the 12-15 days needed to gain that extra year of service... make him the fifth starter and with off days early, you probably wouldn't even have to use him until the third week of the season. Just makes sense.

 

That said, the Twins haven't played that beginning of year service card thing . See Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmelee, and Joe Mauer going back further. So, that's why I don't think this is at all about Service Time.

[sane]

Predicted 40-man before RuleV Draft:

 

C. Suzuki,Hermann,Fryer,Pinto (4)

 

IF. Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Escobar,Santana,Plouffe,Nunez,Sano,Polanco,Vielma(10)

 

OF. Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Robinson, Arcia, Kepler, Hunter, Walker (8)

 

SP.Hughes, Gibson, Santana. Nolasco, Milone, Duffy,T.Rogers, Berrios,Jorge (9)

 

RP.Perkins,Jepson,May,Meyer, Fien, Tonkin, Pressly,Boyer,Graham,Achter,O'Roarke,

Chargois, Z.Jones, (13)

 

Total(44)

[sane]

Half the posts here are "they are the experts, who are you to question them".....

We ALL have the right to question whomever....and we all have the right to believe (or disbelieve) whomever.

[sane]

Since you've persistently made the claim that we will lose good talent to Rule 5 this winter if we called up Berrios, care to actually present what the 40-man roster could look like at that time, and thus what actual players we would be protecting and what players we could lose?

Predicted 40-man before RuleV Draft:

 

C. Suzuki,Hermann,Fryer,Pinto (4)

 

IF. Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Escobar,Santana,Plouffe,Nunez,Sano,Polanco,Vielma(10)

 

OF. Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Robinson, Arcia, Kepler, Hunter, Walker (8)

 

SP.Hughes, Gibson, Santana. Nolasco, Milone, Duffy,T.Rogers, Berrios,Jorge (9)

 

RP.Perkins,Jepson,May,Meyer, Fien, Tonkin, Pressly,Boyer,Graham,Achter,O'Roarke,

Chargois, Z.Jones, (13)

 

Total(44)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Predicted 40-man before RuleV Draft:

 

C. Suzuki,Hermann,Fryer,Pinto (4)

 

IF. Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Escobar,Santana,Plouffe,Nunez,Sano,Polanco,Vielma(10)

 

OF. Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Robinson, Arcia, Kepler, Hunter, Walker (8)

 

SP.Hughes, Gibson, Santana. Nolasco, Milone, Duffy,T.Rogers, Berrios,Jorge (9)

 

RP.Perkins,Jepson,May,Meyer, Fien, Tonkin, Pressly,Boyer,Graham,Achter,O'Roarke,

Chargois, Z.Jones, (13)

 

Total(44)

You predicting we will re-sign Hunter and Boyer, before December?

 

You think Eric Fryer can't be dropped and invited back like he was last winter?

 

No wonder you didn't think there was room for Berrios.

 

And I am pretty sure not all 6 of those guys you added will be protected, even without Berrios taking a spot. Are you going to complain when TR recklessly leaves an A-ball player unprotected?

[jimmer]

 

You predicting we will re-sign Hunter and Boyer, before December?

You think Eric Fryer can't be dropped and invited back like he was last winter?

No wonder you didn't think there was room for Berrios.

And I am pretty sure not all 6 of those guys you added will be protected, even without Berrios taking a spot. Are you going to complain when TR recklessly leaves an A-ball player unprotected?

and one has to wonder why we wouldn't get rid of Robinson and Nunez as well. 

[sane]

You predicting we will re-sign Hunter and Boyer, before December?

 

You think Eric Fryer can't be dropped and invited back like he was last winter?

 

No wonder you didn't think there was room for Berrios.

 

And I am pretty sure not all 6 of those guys you added will be protected, even without Berrios taking a spot. Are you going to complain when TR recklessly leaves an A-ball player unprotected?

[sane]

 

 

You predicting we will re-sign Hunter and Boyer, before December?

You think Eric Fryer can't be dropped and invited back like he was last winter?

No wonder you didn't think there was room for Berrios.

And I am pretty sure not all 6 of those guys you added will be protected, even without Berrios taking a spot. Are you going to complain when TR recklessly leaves an A-ball player unprotected?

 

They need room for four, so if Fryer, Boyer and Hunter are all off the roster, they still need one more spot (Berrios's?) for the Rule V's I would want to protect. As far as ME complaining about this year's Gilmartin, that's not me. I already know that other teams like some of our players that WE don't like.

I'm the guy who other posters ask, "Do you owe TR money, or something?"

[DaveW]

To all the people spouting "the front office knows what it's doing, how dare you question the plan!" Let me point out that this front office has won exactly ONE playoff series in 17 years. The "give them the benefit of the doubt" ship not only sailed long ago, but it sank somewhere in the middle of 4 straight 90 loss seasons.

[PseudoSABR]

 

To all the people spouting "the front office knows what it's doing, how dare you question the plan!" Let me point out that this front office has won exactly ONE playoff series in 17 years. The "give them the benefit of the doubt" ship not only sailed long ago, but it sank somewhere in the middle of 4 straight 90 loss seasons.

No one's saying that.  People are saying, maybe the Front Office has some valid reasons for their behavior.  

 

It's fine to be critical of this move, but using the delayed promotion of Berrios (like people did with Gibson and May) to characterize TR has some foolish cheapskate is dishonest (and very annoying to read again and again).  Too many posters are frothing at the bit to find transactions they can use to smear the front office. ("See, I told you the Twins were thestupid!")

 

 

 

 

[DaveW]

No one's saying that. People are saying, maybe the Front Office has some valid reasons for their behavior.

 

It's fine to be critical of this move, but using the delayed promotion of Berrios (like people did with Gibson and May) to characterize TR has some foolish cheapskate is dishonest (and very annoying to read again and again). Too many posters are frothing at the bit to find transactions they can use to smear the front office. ("See, I told you the Twins were thestupid!")

It's not like those posters have to look too hard:

Hunter signing

stauffer signing

Nolasco signing

Santana signing

Suzuki extension

Lack of doing anything for the most part at the trade deadline

Hughes extension

Berrios situation

Etc

Etc

Etc

Etc

[PseudoSABR]

 

Etc
Etc
Etc
Etc

Awesome analysis, per usual. 

[DaveW]

Awesome analysis, per usual.

no rebuttal to the 8 terrible decisions mentioned?

[DaveW]

Terry Ryan was quoted as saying "at no time did he ever consider berrios being called up to the majors" please defend this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I didn't forget. Fryer is one of only three healthy major league catchers in the organization. Free Agents are automatically off the roster until/unless the are re-signed. Fien and Nunez are effective MLB players, who in the worst case are trade-able. IMO Ryan made the right decision on Berrios,( and Jepsen by the way). I'll take the evaluations of Ryan and his staff ahead of the amateur scouts who I have read here.

Still think Fien is "worst case trade-able"?

 

Not to mention, is whatever worst case Fien would return in trade worth anything close to a chance at a month of good MLB relief in a pennant race? And/or priming Berrios to hit the ground running in MLB in 2016 (perhaps making another SP expendable in trade)?

[PseudoSABR]

 

no rebuttal to the 8 terrible decisions mentioned?

69 - 63

 

Good organizational leaders can overcome their errors and mistakes. They plan for them and they mitigate them when they arise. 

[Steve Lein]

 

If they're making this decision because they're worried about JO's arm, I'm okay with it.

 

If they're making this decision because they're worried about the 40 man roster, pppbbbbbtttttt.

 

Agree...

 

But TR is playing a weird game...

 

Why are there no concerns about Duffey's arm if innings are a concern for Berrios? (I don't think age matters here)

 

Duffey had never been a starter when drafted, and was transitioned in 2013. He threw 120 innings that year. (Berrios threw 103.2)

 

In 2014, he threw 149 innings. (Berrios threw 140)

 

In 2015, he's now at 163.2 innings. (Berrios is at 161.1)

 

So when does Duffey get shut down?!

 

(EDIT: Jeez, went from 1 page to 8 of comments when I finally typed that, late to the party I guess!)

[SwainZag]

 

It's not like those posters have to look too hard:
Hunter signing
stauffer signing
Nolasco signing
Santana signing
Suzuki extension
Lack of doing anything for the most part at the trade deadline
Hughes extension
Berrios situation
Etc
Etc
Etc
Etc

 

The Twins might not be in the position they are in without Hunter in the 1st half

Stauffer pitched a grand total of 15 innings.

Injuries have killed Nolasco, but it's not looking good for him

A) The Twins didn't know about the PED issues, and He is in year 1 of his 4 year deal, there is a lot of that deal left to call it a terrible decision

They traded for their current best reliever over the past month at the deadline

Hughes extension not looking grand at the moment, but there's years left to quantify that

Characterizing the "Berrios situation" a terrible decision is in the eye of the beholder.  

 

Despite alllll these terrible decisions, The Twins are 6 games over .500 and in the hunt for a playoff position

 

 

[DaveW]

69 - 63

 

Good organizational leaders can overcome their errors and mistakes. They plan for them and they mitigate them when they arise.

They are 69-63 because Sano has literally carried them the last few weeks.

 

They are still like 60 games below .500 the last 5 years. Calling Ryan "good" is a disservice to the word.

 

He is mediocre at best, and inept at worst at this stage of his career. Time to go.

[jimmer]

 

no rebuttal to the 8 terrible decisions mentioned?

Correia signing, Marquis signing, Span for Meyer trade, Bartlett coming back and being on the 25 Man roster and starting in the OF. (that's how I interpreted you four etcs. :-))

[USAFChief]

 

and one has to wonder why we wouldn't get rid of Robinson and Nunez as well. 

Fien, Tonkin, Achter.  Jorge.  O'Roarke.

 

 

[DaveW]

The Twins might not be in the position they are in without Hunter in the 1st half

Stauffer pitched a grand total of 15 innings.

Injuries have killed Nolasco, but it's not looking good for him

A) The Twins didn't know about the PED issues, and He is in year 1 of his 4 year deal, there is a lot of that deal left to call it a terrible decision

They traded for their current best reliever over the past month at the deadline

Hughes extension not looking grand at the moment, but there's years left to quantify that

Characterizing the "Berrios situation" a terrible decision is in the eye of the beholder.

 

Despite alllll these terrible decisions, The Twins are 6 games over .500 and in the hunt for a playoff position

3/4ths of the teams in the AL are in the hunt for the playoffs. I didn't know that was the standard of excellence these days.

[DaveW]

Correia signing, Marquis signing, Span for Meyer trade, Bartlett coming back and being on the 25 Man roster and starting in the OF. (that's how I interpreted you four etcs. :-))

Yup! Don't forget Kubel and the guaranteed contract!

[PseudoSABR]

 

They are 69-63 because Sano has literally carried them the last few weeks.

TR would have kept him in AA all season!  

 

 

Oh wait...

[sane]

 

 

"Why are there no concerns about Duffey's arm if innings are a concern for Berrios?

So when does Duffey get shut down?!"

 

In Duffy's case, innings are the ONLY concern.

 

In Berrios' case, there are at least three concerns:

1) Innings

2) Unnecessarily taking a spot on the 40-man BEFORE the Rule V draft. (Duffy is already on the 40-man)

3) Berrios is yet not in the MLB rotation, but Duffy is.

 

[DaveW]

TR would have kept him in AA all season!

 

 

Oh wait...

Well it was only after they started Suzuki at DH and Nunez multiple times...