Ryan: Berrios will NOT be called up in September

[drjim]

 

The Pirates are in a completely different spot than the Twins. 6 games out of the division lead, but 4.5 games up on the first wild card. Also they have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, with both top starters and relievers. The likelihood of rookie Glasnow giving them meaningful marginal wins is much, much lower than Berrios doing the same for the Twins, who have a mediocre staff in a very tight race on the edge of postseason qualification.

 

The 2012 Pirates held back Gerrit Cole in a pennant race, although it was Cole's first pro season where he basically went from zero pro innings to 132, beginning in A-ball and not reaching AAA until a token appearance at the end of August (after some scuffles at AA earlier that month).

 

Tampa also has one of the best staffs in the league this year, with studs in the rotation and pen. Their issue is undeniably offense. And they faded in July while the Twins were surging behind new hitting addition Sano. Their nonpromotion of Snell looks more like the Twins reticence to add Buxton back (or even Kepler) to the MLB lineup before Hicks got hurt again. I think the Rays history of promoting pitching prospects for pennant races basically every year from 2008-2013 is probably more indicative of their philosophy than the single case of Snell and their specific 2015 club.

 

Very, VERY hard to find a team like the 2015 Twins holding back a prospect like 2015 Berrios. Plenty of clubs are conservative with pitching prospects, but I don't think any GM approaches certain situations quite like TR.

 

A quick look at the rosters of Pittsburgh and (especially) Tampa both show they could absolutely use another dynamic arm in the bullpen. They are not so stacked they couldn't use arms of those types. It is absolutely winning time for both. Though I do agree and acknowledge the marginal win for Pittsburgh is much less meaningful than the Twins at the moment.

 

Tampa has a history of promoting pitchers, but never have they promoted a pitcher as young as Berrios in this position. They were either college arms or high school guys 1-2 years older than Berrios. So no, nothing in their past suggests they would promote Berrios right now. And comparing pitcher and hitter callups is meaningless in this context, when pushing innings is the primary issue.

 

Overall this strikes me as way too many qualifications to ignore the very simple point that of four prospects on playoff competitive teams that fit the Berrios profile, only one is coming up. And there are few, if any, historical examples of players the age of Berrios getting called up.

[DaveW]

 

I bet that decision was made in late July when they didn't bring him up to help the BP! But no one told us, or him!

He was actually quoted as saying at no point did he ever consider calling up Berrios this year, not one point. That reeks of cheapness and service time manipulation, or at the very least the stubbornness not to change.

 

People say "well they called up Sano and Buxton!" That is because they literally had no other option, hell they were running Nunez and Escobar (before he started hitting well) at DH at that point, it took a couple weeks of that before they called up Sano. Buxton was only called up due to Hicks being terrible, and then Hicks getting injured. That wasn't "aggressive" by TR, it was the only move left.

 

See you next June, Jose!

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Tampa has a history of promoting pitchers, but never have they promoted a pitcher as young as Berrios in this position. They were either college arms or high school guys 1-2 years older than Berrios. So no, nothing in their past suggests they would promote Berrios right now. And comparing pitcher and hitter callups is meaningless in this context, when pushing innings is the primary issue.

 

 

 

There is plenty of room to be critical of keeping Berrios down, however I agree here and may go a step further in saying that Tampa may even be more conservative with their pitchers than the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't forget. Fryer is one of only three healthy major league catchers in the organization. Free Agents are automatically off the roster until/unless the are re-signed. Fien and Nunez are effective MLB players, who in the worst case are trade-able. IMO Ryan made the right decision on Berrios,( and Jepsen by the way). I'll take the evaluations of Ryan and his staff ahead of the amateur scouts who I have read here.

 

What about the former MLB FO people on Fangrapahs who don't agree? What about others on other sites, wondering.......this is 100% an appeal to authority, an attempt to say we shouldn't question the FO.

 

Look, this is about 2022, just like his last tenure, it's all about the future.

 

Half the posts here are "they are the experts, who are you to question them".....

[USAFChief]

A quick look at the rosters of Pittsburgh and (especially) Tampa both show they could absolutely use another dynamic arm in the bullpen. They are not so stacked they couldn't use arms of those types. It is absolutely winning time for both. Though I do agree and acknowledge the marginal win for Pittsburgh is much less meaningful than the Twins at the moment.

 

Tampa has a history of promoting pitchers, but never have they promoted a pitcher as young as Berrios in this position. They were either college arms or high school guys 1-2 years older than Berrios. So no, nothing in their past suggests they would promote Berrios right now. And comparing pitcher and hitter callups is meaningless in this context, when pushing innings is the primary issue.

 

Overall this strikes me as way too many qualifications to ignore the very simple point that of four prospects on playoff competitive teams that fit the Berrios profile, only one is coming up. And there are few, if any, historical examples of players the age of Berrios getting called up.

There's few examples of 21 yr olds getting called up?

[Platoon]

I doubt there's another team in baseball that, in the Twins position, wouldn't have found a way to get Berrios into a post season chase.

The secret to Ryan's genius is that he waited so long to announce this that the decision makes sense. The real issue is why wasn't he brought up 4-6 weeks ago? It's like carrying an umbrella around in Tuscon for weeks, and then when it rains yelling, "I told you I needed an umbrella"! Maybe innings limits come into play, but the bottom line is the 40 man issue. I tend to think Ryan's decisions are based on business, injuries and talent, in that order. No way is Buxton or Duffey here without injuries to the roster. I am not sure about Sano, but I think it fair to say he wasn't rushed into the majors either. Maybe watching Suzuki DH was even more than he could stand?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I love that Ryan is so concerned about service time, considering he hasn't developed a pitcher worth worrying about when they hit free agency during his entire time here. (Every talented one was traded)

 

 

Okay the TR bashing has gone too far. This is patently false.

 

First of all, the fact that the talented Twins pitchers were traded or signed elsewhere doesn't make service time any less important.  The Twins had those players the time they did or traded them for what they got based on how long a team could control them - it's super relevant.  You can rag on TR all you want but Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Francisco Liriano all refute your idea that he hasn't developed a pitcher worth worrying about when they hit free agency.  

 

Santana is clearly a pitcher "worth worrying about" in free agency. With Santana, the Twins didn't feel they could afford him at the end of team control (likely true) so they traded him. That doesn't mean that service time didn't matter - they kept him up until he had only one more year left. If they'd brought him up later they'd have gotten one more year of Johan or a much better haul if they'd traded him at the same time. Johan's time in the pen is a worst case scenario for bringing up Berrios - you waste a year of low leverage bullpen work and miss out on an ace for a year at the end of team control, whether you use that for another season of elite pitching or for a better trade haul.

 

Garza was traded for Delmon (you can pan that trade but not the development of Garza and once again, the Twins got the package they got based on how many years of control Garza had left) and Liriiano was actually offered a similar contract to the one he got in Pittsburgh but he chose to leave. Actually, that last part is perhaps more damning of the Twins (but not specifically TR) because Loshe also left and had success elsewhere after becoming frustrated with the Twins pitching staff. 

 

Another example is Brad Radke. Though he was drafted before TR took over, he came up right as TR became GM.  TR signed him several times to free agent deals. He was definitely a homegrown pitcher who was worth holding onto.

 

You can not like TR for many things but the concept that the Twins have developed no talent is false, as is the idea that service time plays no role in Berrios. You may disagree about the relative value of Berrios pitching this year versus preserving a year at the end of his team control but it's a valid concern for TR.

[DaveW]

The Twins didn't develop Santana, they got him in the rule 5 draft and caught lightning in a bottle. They traded for Liriano.

 

Garza is the only one. Everyone else turned out to be somewhere between: a bust and "meh" (Kyle Loshe, Nick Blackburn, etc)

[Shane Wahl]

This thread really made my head hurt. There is *no* defense of the handling of the best starter in the damn organization this year. Those innings could have easily been managed. There is no other reason to not have him up that remotely makes sense. The Twins aren't losing 90-100 games this year, they might actually make the playoffs. It has to be all hands on deck.

[drjim]

 

There is plenty of room to be critical of keeping Berrios down, however I agree here and may go a step further in saying that Tampa may even be more conservative with their pitchers than the Twins.

 

And to be clear, I'm not even really "defending" Ryan in regards to Berrios, I absolutely think Berrios should be up and they should have shifted course around the time of the May spot start.

 

However, it has to be acknowledged that Ryan's decision is not some huge outlier and franchises that are among the most respected in the game handle similar pitching prospects more or less the same.

[drjim]

 

There's few examples of 21 yr olds getting called up?

 

Starting pitchers? Much less frequent recently. Here are the amount of pitchers each year that were 21 and younger and made more than one start in a season.

 

2015: 2 (Severino and McCullers)

2014: 2 (Walker and Fernandez)

2013: 3 (Walker, Fernandez, Skaggs)

2012: 6

2011: 9

2010: 5

2009: 7

 

For some reason it has dropped in recent years, so does seem to be the trend.

[Blackjack]

 

This thread really made my head hurt.

 

I actually thought it was pretty humorous, I knew before I started that it was going to be a rant.

[David HK]

I actually posted this on the game thread long after the Chicken Dinnah was served, sort of an afterthought.    Reposting it here, for relevance' sake--

 

Just musing on the Berrios thing.   I know, they don't want to call him up for the service time factor, which makes sense in the longer term. 

However-  ask the White Sox, the Mariners, the Padres, and others-  they thought, with the personnel they had, that they would contend this year for sure.   The Twinks think, with a full season of Sano, and hopefully, Buxton with more of a clue at the plate, and Berrios in May, that they will contend, too.   Point being-- nothing is certain between the lines.   When you have the chance, when you're in contention, that's when you have to get it done.   Next year?   Looks good, maybe great even, for playoffs chances.   But---  that's what they thought in SSide Chicago, Seattle, San Diego, and other places...

I think they should have called him up.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Translation: "he wasn't in the plans, and I never deviate from my plans."

This is probably a pretty accurate take on Ryan's thinking. This is also the type of closed minded thinking that gets people killed in war. Fortunately, baseball isn't war, it's something we can all enjoy. Unfortunately, majority of teams do treat the MLB season as war. But fortunately, the war machines of MLB do lose from time to time, and old fashioned teams like the Twins can sneak pretty far into the postseason sometimes, and it helps if they are putting their best team on the field.

[astauty]

You honestly believe this? You're honestly saying Berrios is not a top 15 pitcher in the Twins organization then... 

 

 

Three questions...

1. Who ever guaranteed that Berrios will automatically make the team better in any capacity?

 

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

If you are pinning your present and future hopes for this team on having Berrios pitch for them this season, you might be suffering from tunnel vision.

 

I would like to think this team is being built for long-term, sustainable success.

 

Making the playoffs this season would be an unexpected bonus, a nice jump start to the process, but really, I expect the Twins to compete for division titles as early as next season. 

 

 

[Comrade Bork]

Man this has been fun to read all the comments. "Berrios is a shiny new toy and I want it now grandpa TR!" Love the comparison to May and Gibson taking lumps to start their career and Berrios' struggles to start AAA. The time to bring him up was for Mays spot start and now it's too late. Get over it and look forward to next year.

[Loosey]

 

The twins have been in the playoff hunt all season, this isn't something that suddenly happened in the last two weeks, how Ryan and co couldn't fathom and think about how he could make them better if they did make the playoffs or were still in it in sept is just ridiculous plain and simple. In any other sports market Ryan would be getting roasted for this conservative/cheap crap.

This means that Terry Ryan never once thought about bring him up due to his age.  Which is a horrible reason, I don't know how age has a correlation to skills in this instance. 

 

Terry Ryan has shown that he and the Twins organization are fine with "just being competitive" like they were in the first 10 years of the 2000's.  Why make a move that could make the team even better when they are "doing fine" right now. 

 

I would like to see him fired, but this season's success has bought him another 5 years especially since the team most likely will be even better the next few season.  So I don't think we can expect any changes coming anytime soon.

[1490]

 

You honestly believe this? You're honestly saying Berrios is not a top 15 pitcher in the Twins organization then... 

 

For a September run at the playoffs as a player who has never player Major League Baseball before? I have my doubts that he is... but even if he is, that doesn't mean it isn't a gamble to bring him up...

[kab21]

 

If you are pinning your present and future hopes for this team on having Berrios pitch for them this season, you might be suffering from tunnel vision.

 

I would like to think this team is being built for long-term, sustainable success.

 

Making the playoffs this season would be an unexpected bonus, a nice jump start to the process, but really, I expect the Twins to compete for division titles as early as next season. 

Nobody has pinned the Twins chances simply on having Berrios in the bullpen.  He gives the Twins another potentially solid to very good late inning arm (like Finnegan or Carlos Martinez or David Price or an endless group of called up starters).  Now that Perkins is struggling with an injury and not pitching well that might mean that Fien or JR Graham (I like but has struggled) are pitching in the 7th inning.  Berrios might not be better but there is a decent chance that he is and he give the team an extra option.

 

Man this has been fun to read all the comments. "Berrios is a shiny new toy and I want it now grandpa TR!" Love the comparison to May and Gibson taking lumps to start their career and Berrios' struggles to start AAA. The time to bring him up was for Mays spot start and now it's too late. Get over it and look forward to next year.

Wouldn't it make sense for Berrios to take his lumps this year if they are competing again next year?

[Loosey]

Terry Ryan treats young pitching prospects like the guy who gets a first row parking spot and then never drives and gets rides from other people because he doesn't want to lose his first row parking spot.

 

The Twins have a possible future all-star pitcher in the organization but don't want to use because (pick your reason).  

 

I remember back when the Twins were one legit bat away from going from a good team to a great team and had a chance to get Alfonso Soriano in his prime for Matt Garza when he was the #1 pitching prospect on the team.  Ryan said, "nope" and didn't want to give up a prospect for an immediate gain and shot at actually making noise in the playoffs.  The Twins didn't advance past the 1st round.

 

Fast forward a few years later Garza is dealt for Delmon Young and the Twins never get what they had hoped out of Garza in a Twins uniform in actual performance or in trade returns.

 

I think Berrios is a better prospect than Garza, but it is the same treatment of pitcher with Ryan.  There is no guarantee the Twins will make the playoffs this year or any year after this year.  I wouldn't agree with trading Berrios, but using him to improve the team by actually rostering him would help the team this year.    Look at the National's, they were going to win the WS every year so they shut down Strausberg in the playoffs a few years ago.  How many WS have they won? 

[astauty]

 

For a September run at the playoffs as a player who has never player Major League Baseball before? I have my doubts that he is... but even if he is, that doesn't mean it isn't a gamble to bring him up...

 

wouldn't you want your best pitchers, ya know.. pitching? during a September run for the playoffs? And if we're unsure, the bigger issue is that he should have been up early August then. 

[Loosey]

 

For a September run at the playoffs as a player who has never player Major League Baseball before? I have my doubts that he is... but even if he is, that doesn't mean it isn't a gamble to bring him up...

If they are worried about his arm, isn't it a gamble to have him pitch in his next start?  Every time he pitches it's a gamble.  I would rather use those "Chips" I'm gambling with in big leagues rather than AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you are pinning your present and future hopes for this team on having Berrios pitch for them this season, you might be suffering from tunnel vision.

 

I would like to think this team is being built for long-term, sustainable success.

 

Making the playoffs this season would be an unexpected bonus, a nice jump start to the process, but really, I expect the Twins to compete for division titles as early as next season. 

 

Is there any actual evidence having him pitch this year hurts any year, other than maybe 2022 and beyond? If they don't sign him or trade him or whatever?

[Mike Sixel]

 

For a September run at the playoffs as a player who has never player Major League Baseball before? I have my doubts that he is... but even if he is, that doesn't mean it isn't a gamble to bring him up...

 

It's a gamble to bring him up next year, would you keep waiting? Would you never gamble? I don't understand your point......he's supposed to be SO GOOD that we should worry about control in 2022, but we can't think he's one of the 15 best pitchers right now? Really?

[Loosey]

 

It's a gamble to bring him up next year, would you keep waiting? Would you never gamble? I don't understand your point......he's supposed to be SO GOOD that we should worry about control in 2022, but we can't think he's one of the 15 best pitchers right now? Really?

I think the safest use of him will be to never let him pitch again because he might get hurt.  I mean why gamble on him getting him hurt when we can be assured his arm will stay healthy if he never throws another pitch.  *Sarcasm*

[SwainZag]

 

Terry Ryan treats young pitching prospects like the guy who gets a first row parking spot and then never drives and gets rides from other people because he doesn't want to lose his first row parking spot.

 

The Twins have a possible future all-star pitcher in the organization but don't want to use because (pick your reason).  

 

I remember back when the Twins were one legit bat away from going from a good team to a great team and had a chance to get Alfonso Soriano in his prime for Matt Garza when he was the #1 pitching prospect on the team.  Ryan said, "nope" and didn't want to give up a prospect for an immediate gain and shot at actually making noise in the playoffs.  The Twins didn't advance past the 1st round.

 

Fast forward a few years later Garza is dealt for Delmon Young and the Twins never get what they had hoped out of Garza in a Twins uniform in actual performance or in trade returns.

 

I think Berrios is a better prospect than Garza, but it is the same treatment of pitcher with Ryan.  There is no guarantee the Twins will make the playoffs this year or any year after this year.  I wouldn't agree with trading Berrios, but using him to improve the team by actually rostering him would help the team this year.    Look at the National's, they were going to win the WS every year so they shut down Strausberg in the playoffs a few years ago.  How many WS have they won? 

 

In 2006 the Twins didn't trade their top pitching prospect Garza for 30 year old 2 month rental Alfonso Soriano.  I find this hardly even close to the same thing.  

[sane]

 

he's supposed to be SO GOOD that we should worry about control in 2022, but we can't think he's one of the 15 best pitchers right now? Really?

How good he is NOW and how good he PROJECTS to be in 2022 are not the same thing.

MLB experience and lessons learned can lead to enormous IMPROVEMENT.

We just had our best HS player sign for $913,000, $700,000 above his slot value, because he is 6'4" 155# at 17yrs-old and PROJECTS to become 6'5" 220# at 22 yrs-old. He isn't being paid for who he is now, but what he projects to become. Those two things are related, but they are not identical.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

So you don't think Berrios is good enough to help the team right now? Is that the argument?

 

What would make him ready next spring, if they shut him down between now and then? I'd guess if you don't think he's good enough now, you'll be posting he needs 3+ months next year to get ready, correct?

[Seth Stohs]

 

So you don't think Berrios is good enough to help the team right now? Is that the argument?

 

What would make him ready next spring, if they shut him down between now and then? I'd guess if you don't think he's good enough now, you'll be posting he needs 3+ months next year to get ready, correct?

 

I think it'll be like 13 days for the to 'get ready' next year.