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Ryan: Berrios will NOT be called up in September


Seth Stohs

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Zero creativity, zero situational awareness.

It's not creative to call up your top pitching prospect; it's obvious, and repeated ad naseam.   The Twins actually have recent experience with promoting their best pitching prospects in the second half.  Those incidences not only did not work out well, they worked out horribly in the short term. (I love you now, Gibby, and May.  But I'm glad you took your lumps when we were losing!)  The argument then, was that the Twins should have promoted them sooner...

 

It wasn't clear that Berrios would adjust when exposed to ML pitching, his first starts in AAA did not go well.  That said, dude has been lights out since then, and might be the best pitcher in the minor leagues (Awesome!).  I'd like him up soon too because of statistical dreaminess, but I don't want him to end like Dylan Bundy or Marcus Stroman either.  

 

The notion that the Twins prefer cheapness to winning flies in the face of their minor league promotion record this season.  Rosario is up; Sano is up; Buxton is up.  It's fine that you disagree with their decision on Berrios, but that hardly substantiates that they lack situational awareness or creativity.

 

The Twins are conservative with their pitching prospects.  And for good reason.  Why the Twins would choose not to promote Berrios are probably found in the details inaccessible to us fans (which sucks); I think there's real reason to believe that Berrios is nearing fatigue (many of these mentioned in the Bollinger article) which could hurt not only ML effectiveness, but development.   

 

I'm not sure any of this is the case.  But I can't cavalierly preclude it, either.  I just don't know better.

 

 

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"And we have plenty of fodder on the 40 man to lose right now without blinking"

 

I am expecting to lose Thompson, Darnell, Graham, Boyer, Duensing and Robinson.

I am expecting to add A.B. Walker, Tyler Rogers, J.T.Chargois,  Engelb Vielma, Zack Jones and

Felix Jorge.

Who else is fodder?

You forgot about Fryer.  You also forgot about 3 other FA: Cotts, Pelfrey, and Hunter.  And a couple more nontender candidates like Fien and Nunez.

 

There are a lot more spots on the 40-man that can and will be opened than there are interesting marginal Rule 5 guys to protect.

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It's not creative to call up your top pitching prospect; it's obvious, and repeated ad naseam.   The Twins actually have recent experience with promoting their best pitching prospects in the second half.  Those incidences not only did not work out well, they worked out horribly in the short term. (I love you now, Gibby, and May.  But I'm glad you took your lumps when we were losing!)  The argument then, was that the Twins should have promoted them sooner...

 

It wasn't clear that Berrios would adjust when exposed to ML pitching, his first starts in AAA did not go well.  That said, dude has been lights out since then, and might be the best pitcher in the minor leagues (Awesome!).  I'd like him up soon, but I don't want him to end like Dylan Bundy either.  

 

The notion that the Twins prefer cheapness to winning flies in the face of their minor league promotion record this season.  Rosario is up; Sano is up; Buxton is up.  It's fine that you disagree with their decision on Berrios, but that hardly substantiates that they lack situational awareness or lack creativity.

 

The Twins are conservative with the pitching prospects.  And for good reason.  Why the Twins would choose not to promote Berrios are probably in the details inaccessible to us fans; I think there's real reason to believe that Berrios is nearing fatigue which could hurt not only ML effectiveness, but development.   

 

I'm not sure any of this is the case.  But I can't cavalierly preclude it.

I feel like you are refuting a lot of things I didn't say.

 

The creative thing, on a team in a tight race as far back as June with a mediocre staff and one of the top MLB pitching prospects in the high minors, would be to plan for that prospect to potentially be able to help the MLB team.

 

The uncreative thing would be to stick with your exact preseason plan for him the whole damn time, regardless of everything else.

 

Go see the quotes from Ryan that he never really considered promoting Berrios this year, and that it was entirely about the innings.  I really doubt there is any magic bullet indicating he is "nearing fatigue" or why would they have him make a final meaningless start in Rochester this weekend?

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I feel like you are refuting a lot of things I didn't say.

 

The creative thing, on a team in a tight race as far back as June with a mediocre staff and one of the top MLB pitching prospects in the high minors, would be to plan for that prospect to potentially be able to help the MLB team.

 

The uncreative thing would be to stick with your exact preseason plan for him the whole damn time, regardless of everything else.

 

Go see the quotes from Ryan that he never really considered promoting Berrios this year, and that it was entirely about the innings.  I really doubt there is any magic bullet indicating he is "nearing fatigue" or why would they have him make a final meaningless start in Rochester this weekend?

Why can't there be any legitimacy to the notion that Ryan and his staff have valid reasons for believing that a promotion not only would hinder the team but would hurt Berrios' development?  

 

You can't just ignore the aggressive promotion of other prospects and cast Ryan with characteristics that are inconsistent with that behavior.  He's just 'uncreative' in regards to Berrios?  I don't buy it. I think the Twins are genuinely concerned the effects of fatigue (and, speculatively, everything else that contributes to ineffectiveness and stunted growth when a prospect is hastily promoted).  

 

If the Twins behaved like you suggest, I don't think we see Buxton batting ninth, or Sano (this dude is a dude) when we were seemingly non-competitive earlier this month. I think it's possible, even very likely, for talented players to have minor league success, but show signs of obvious flaws that would be exposed in short order at the major league level.   

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Actually there are. Pittsburgh has a very similar (though not perfect comp) situation with Glasnow and aren't calling him up. And Glasnow is also a year older and has many fewer innings this year.

 

I don't think the Twins are a unique outlier, there would have been more of a split than you are allowing here.

 

I still would have called him up.

 

EDIT: And I forgot Blake Snell with the Rays, which is even a better comp than Glasnow. Another guy who is a year older and has less innings and isn't coming up to a team that could use him.

 

So, to recap, 4 teams had pitchers in a similar spot as Berrios and 3 didn't call them up, including the Rays and Pirates, two of the most respected organizations in the game. The one that did was the Yankees with Servino, a franchise in a different stratosphere as these three. Let's not pretend that Ryan is crazy here.

 

I still would have called him up.

 

The Pirates are in a completely different spot than the Twins. 6 games out of the division lead, but 4.5 games up on the first wild card. Also they have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, with both top starters and relievers. The likelihood of rookie Glasnow giving them meaningful marginal wins is much, much lower than Berrios doing the same for the Twins, who have a mediocre staff in a very tight race on the edge of postseason qualification.

 

The 2012 Pirates held back Gerrit Cole in a pennant race, although it was Cole's first pro season where he basically went from zero pro innings to 132, beginning in A-ball and not reaching AAA until a token appearance at the end of August (after some scuffles at AA earlier that month).

 

Tampa also has one of the best staffs in the league this year, with studs in the rotation and pen. Their issue is undeniably offense. And they faded in July while the Twins were surging behind new hitting addition Sano. Their nonpromotion of Snell looks more like the Twins reticence to add Buxton back (or even Kepler) to the MLB lineup before Hicks got hurt again. I think the Rays history of promoting pitching prospects for pennant races basically every year from 2008-2013 is probably more indicative of their philosophy than the single case of Snell and their specific 2015 club.

 

Very, VERY hard to find a team like the 2015 Twins holding back a prospect like 2015 Berrios. Plenty of clubs are conservative with pitching prospects, but I don't think any GM approaches certain situations quite like TR.

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The Pirates are in a completely different spot than the Twins. 6 games out of the division lead, but 4.5 games up on the first wild card. Also they have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, with both top starters and relievers. The likelihood of rookie Glasnow giving them meaningful marginal wins is much, much lower than Berrios doing the same for the Twins, who have a mediocre staff in a very tight race on the edge of postseason qualification.

 

The 2012 Pirates held back Gerrit Cole in a pennant race, although it was Cole's first pro season where he basically went from zero pro innings to 132, beginning in A-ball and not reaching AAA until a token appearance at the end of August (after some scuffles at AA earlier that month).

 

Tampa also has one of the best staffs in the league this year, with studs in the rotation and pen. Their issue is undeniably offense. And they faded in July while the Twins were surging behind new hitting addition Sano. Their nonpromotion of Snell looks more like the Twins reticence to add Buxton back (or even Kepler) to the MLB lineup before Hicks got hurt again. I think the Rays history of promoting pitching prospects for pennant races basically every year from 2008-2013 is probably more indicative of their philosophy than the single case of Snell and their specific 2015 club.

 

Very, VERY hard to find a team like the 2015 Twins holding back a prospect like 2015 Berrios. Plenty of clubs are conservative with pitching prospects, but I don't think any GM approaches certain situations quite like TR.

Yeah, I didn't really get those comparisons either, especially Pittsburg. 3rd best record in baseball.  For those who like ERA, 2nd best team ERA in baseball. Comparing the needs of the Pirates pitching staff and our pitching staff is like comparing a Rembrandt to a velvet painting of dogs playing poker.

 

Pitt is in the playoffs, Twins struggling to get in.  Their needs are nowhere near the same.

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Why can't there be any legitimacy to the notion that Ryan and his staff have valid reasons for believing that a promotion not only would hinder the team but would hurt Berrios' development?  

 

You can't just ignore the aggressive promotion of other prospects and cast Ryan with characteristics that are inconsistent with that behavior.  He's just 'uncreative' in regards to Berrios?  I don't buy it. I think the Twins are genuinely concerned the effects of fatigue (and, speculatively, everything else that contributes to ineffectiveness and stunted growth when a prospect is hastily promoted).  

 

If the Twins behaved like you suggest, I don't think we see Buxton batting ninth, or Sano (this dude is a dude) when we were seemingly non-competitive earlier this month. I think it's possible, even very likely, for talented players to have minor league success, but show signs of obvious flaws that would be exposed in short order at the major league level.   

 

Buxton was always part of TR's plan this year, as was Sano. Berrios never was.

 

The evidence overwhelming points to TR simply sticking to his preseason plan for these guys, not some kind of magic bullet "nearing fatigue" evaluation of Berrios that somehow allows him a final "curtain call" start at Rochester.

 

I am sure TR thinks this is best for Berrios and the team, but he made that decision last winter or perhaps even earlier than that. He just doesn't switch horses midstream, which is refreshing at times but also maddeningly frustrating at others.

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If they're making this decision because they're worried about JO's arm, I'm okay with it.

 

If they're making this decision because they're worried about the 40 man roster, pppbbbbbtttttt.

 

These two rationales are not mutually exclusive.  As with most things, the truth lies in the middle

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If you're concerned about Berrios' arm, the 40 man roster space is irrelevant so they are kind of exclusive.

 

Both can absolutely play roles.  Cost/risk analysis.  Add up the risks, add up the costs, compare.  I doubt they're sitting on pins and needles each time he throws a pitch because they're expecting it to blow up because of his innings total, but I wouldn't be surprised if a statement similar to:

 

"Given how many innings he's thrown, perhaps it's not worth exposing someone else"

 

I understand that if you think there's a large enough risk that he'll hurt his arm, then you don't have to consider the 40 man spot.  The same thing can be said that if you think that 40 man roster spot is absolutely valuable enough, then you don't have to consider the risk to hurting his arm.  My point was more along the lines of that they're probably not on the extremes of either topic, and that it's a combination of the two that result in the decision

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Terry Ryan: Worrying 7 years into the future since 1994.

 

The time to worry about the 2015 was 2008. Terry wasn't employed then. Anything that does or doesn't happen with this team is not his fault. There's nothing to be done about it now...

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Terry Ryan: Worrying 7 years into the future since 1994.

 

The time to worry about the 2015 was 2008. Terry wasn't employed then. Anything that does or doesn't happen with this team is not his fault. There's nothing to be done about it now...

 

Yeah....who cares about the health of a young pitcher's arm.  Throw caution to the side.  Live in the now.  Trade all the prospects for the proven veterans.

 

Are there any I missed?

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Who said anything about trading prospects? And I get the inning limit, but he should have been up here 3-4 weeks ago.

 

This is all about not wanting to cost themselves control of him in 2022 by using him for 2 months in 2015. Period.

 

In isolation, it's not a bad decision. But it's the same decision Terry Ryan will make in 2022 about another prospect when Berrios is an ace facing free-agency and we have one last shot at a WS. In 21 years as a GM tomorrow has never come. If it didn't in 2006, it never will.

Yeah....who cares about the health of a young pitcher's arm.  Throw caution to the side.  Live in the now.  Trade all the prospects for the proven veterans.

 

Are there any I missed?

 

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Who said anything about trading prospects? And I get the inning limit, but he should have been up here 3-4 weeks ago.

 

This is all about not wanting to cost themselves control of him in 2022 by using him for 2 months in 2015. Period.

 

This is the same rationale.  GMs get demonized for thinking about future of the organization all the time by fans.  I realize that as a fan, we wanted to see Berrios.  But for many reasons (an extra year of control only POTENTIALLY being one of them), all of which focus on future seasons, the decision was made to not bring him up.

 

And him being up here 3-4 weeks ago doesn't change the fact that he would have reached his innings cap.

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If they had called him up 3 weeks ago, he probably could have pitched the rest of the season out of the bullpen and not hit the innings cap he'll hit on Saturday.

 

Eventually you have to decide it's your year and go for it. I'm not saying 2015 is that year for the Twins. I'm saying I have absolutely zero confidence that it will ever that year as long as TR is the GM.This decision reeks of that mindset.  Accordingly, the Twins will most likely never win a World Series as long as he's employed. That's depressing as a fan.

 

 

This is the same rationale.  GMs get demonized for thinking about future of the organization all the time by fans.  I realize that as a fan, we wanted to see Berrios.  But for many reasons (an extra year of control only POTENTIALLY being one of them), all of which focus on future seasons, the decision was made to not bring him up.

 

And him being up here 3-4 weeks ago doesn't change the fact that he would have reached his innings cap.

 

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You forgot about Fryer.  You also forgot about 3 other FA: Cotts, Pelfrey, and Hunter.  And a couple more nontender candidates like Fien and Nunez.

 

 

I didn't forget. Fryer is one of only three healthy major league catchers in the organization. Free Agents are automatically off the roster until/unless the are re-signed. Fien and Nunez are effective MLB players, who in the worst case are trade-able. IMO Ryan made the right decision on Berrios,( and Jepsen by the way). I'll take the evaluations of Ryan and his staff ahead of the amateur scouts who I have read here.

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If they had called him up 3 weeks ago, he probably could have pitched the rest of the season out of the bullpen and not hit the innings cap he'll hit on Saturday.

 

Eventually you have to decide it's your year and go for it. I'm not saying 2015 is that year for the Twins. I'm saying I have absolutely zero confidence that it will ever that year as long as TR is the GM.This decision reeks of that mindset.  Accordingly, the Twins will most likely never win a World Series as long as he's employed. That's depressing as a fan.

 

Most teams don't win a world series during the tenure of their GMs.  If you're going to use World Series as your benchmark for success, prepare to be disappointed.

 

I just don't understand the veracity with which Pitchfork Nation has taken to this issue.  In discussions I have with people about Terry Ryan, it's amazing how often pre-Target Field Terry gets mixed into the discussion and the changes that have occurred get thrown out the window.  You're seeing fundamental changes in scouting, priority and decision making.  Trading Span for a singular high risk/high reward prospect?  Increased free agent spending (To the point of potentially bogging down the rotation in veteran contracts).  Philosophical shifts in pitching emphasis. 

 

Not every move has worked out, but people act like this is just the same old Terry, when they refuse to acknowledge that a lot has changed and the things that haven't changed are largely due to the fact that they've been rebuilding.   And frankly, chasing a second wild card spot isn't the put your chips on the table moment.

 

Some things are still the same (the veteran bias absolutely irks me), and maybe Terry won't change at all.  But given some of the things we've seen thus far, I'm not convinced that when the Twins are competing for more than just a coin flip game on the road that we won't see some differences.

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"Eventually you have to decide it's your year and go for it. I'm not saying 2015 is that year for the Twins. I'm saying I have absolutely zero confidence that it will ever that year as long as TR is the GM"

 

So you have decided that whatever TR decides to do will be wrong, including promoting Berrios or trading prospects for Jepsen. Ryan's original mortal sin is being employed.

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If they had called him up 3 weeks ago, he probably could have pitched the rest of the season out of the bullpen and not hit the innings cap he'll hit on Saturday.

 

And let's not pretend that sending him to the bullpen doesn't come with it's own risks.  Let's take a kid who's approaching his innings limit (or will approach it had they brought him up sooner), and put him in a bullpen role where he'll have to adjust his routine to warm up quicker and will throw harder than he typically does because he's only going for an inning.  How could that possible end poorly.

 

I honestly get the disappointment of him not being up here.  Seriously, I've been on the Berrios hype train longer than most.  But you cannot objectively look at the situation and say that the decision isn't without merit.  It's not the merits fans want (go for the gold), but it has its merits

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And let's not pretend that sending him to the bullpen doesn't come with it's own risks.  Let's take a kid who's approaching his innings limit (or will approach it had they brought him up sooner), and put him in a bullpen role where he'll have to adjust his routine to warm up quicker and will throw harder than he typically does because he's only going for an inning.  How could that possible end poorly.

 

I honestly get the disappointment of him not being up here.  Seriously, I've been on the Berrios hype train longer than most.  But you cannot objectively look at the situation and say that the decision isn't without merit.  It's not the merits fans want (go for the gold), but it has its merits

Totally agree. A lot has been written about the explosion of Tommy John surgery and the correlation to pitchers who throw significantly more innings year over year. I do wish TR had just said at some point something like "we'll shut down Berrios at about 165 innings this year".

 

We may be having the same conversation next year when he is "limited" to 190 innings and has to sit out the ALCS.

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Yeah....who cares about the health of a young pitcher's arm.  Throw caution to the side.  Live in the now

 

That bears repeating. Berrios had a wonderful year but for the Twins future and his future, its time to shut him down. I'd rather see him pitiching for the Twins five years from now rather than briefly in 2015 and risk hurting his arm. Pitching is the name of the game, protect your assets.

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That bears repeating. Berrios had a wonderful year but for the Twins future and his future, its time to shut him down. I'd rather see him pitiching for the Twins five years from now rather than briefly in 2015 and risk hurting his arm. Pitching is the name of the game, protect your assets.

As long as Berrios is a pitcher, he could hurt his arm.

 

He could be called up next June and hurt his arm, or even in Spring Training. That's always going to be a risk.

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I'm with Terry on this one:  No way, Jose.  This years success has been great, but this is a pretty flawed team.  Sano and Hicks have been a great pick-me-ups, Dozier, a 1st half of Hunter, the return of Escobar as a starter.  Buxton is still a prospect, despite his lack of taking a walk or hitting  [probably another round in MiLB, like Hicks], several more promising prospects at various MiLB levels....

 

Considering they're playing for the 2nd wildcard spot, I wouldn't do anything that would slightly risk the future of the Twins.

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It's not creative to call up your top pitching prospect; it's obvious, and repeated ad naseam.   The Twins actually have recent experience with promoting their best pitching prospects in the second half.  Those incidences not only did not work out well, they worked out horribly in the short term. (I love you now, Gibby, and May.  But I'm glad you took your lumps when we were losing!)  The argument then, was that the Twins should have promoted them sooner...

 

It wasn't clear that Berrios would adjust when exposed to ML pitching, his first starts in AAA did not go well.  That said, dude has been lights out since then, and might be the best pitcher in the minor leagues (Awesome!).  I'd like him up soon too because of statistical dreaminess, but I don't want him to end like Dylan Bundy or Marcus Stroman either.  

 

The notion that the Twins prefer cheapness to winning flies in the face of their minor league promotion record this season.  Rosario is up; Sano is up; Buxton is up.  It's fine that you disagree with their decision on Berrios, but that hardly substantiates that they lack situational awareness or creativity.

 

The Twins are conservative with their pitching prospects.  And for good reason.  Why the Twins would choose not to promote Berrios are probably found in the details inaccessible to us fans (which sucks); I think there's real reason to believe that Berrios is nearing fatigue (many of these mentioned in the Bollinger article) which could hurt not only ML effectiveness, but development.   

 

I'm not sure any of this is the case.  But I can't cavalierly preclude it, either.  I just don't know better.

This is one of the bests posts I have ever seen on TD or at least one of the most rationale.  I love the Irony.  Competent managers don't come to conclusions without as much information as possible yet there is no shortage of people here flying off the handle without knowing the decision process while at the same time calling TR incompetent. 

 

Berrios has not yet thrown a ML pitch, yet many here are absolutely dead certain he would be better than proven ML talent.  That is not a competent conclusion especially given he struggled each time he was moved up.

 

As you established, other teams have done the same.  That should cause people great pause before going off on the stupidity of this move.  Yet, it does not slow them down a bit.  I would be asking myself what I don't know or don't understand.  GMs manage service time.  Why, because it is the smart thing to do in the long-term.  It's that simple.    Many here just won't accept that because they want the shiny new toy.   The Cubs held Chris Bryant back for service time reasons for gods sake and people are complaining about Berrios. 

 

Let's also consider that the prize is a one game playoff. In other words, all of this complaining about making the playoffs when in this case it means a one game playoff to get to a real playoff series.  So, the odds of the prize are .5 X whatever chance you give them if making the wildcard.  That's probably 40% today so we will call it a 20% chance.  Three weeks ago it was projected at a 15% chance they make the playoffs.  So, for a 7.5% chance (.15 X .50) of making the playoffs, some suggest we should have burnt a years service time on Berrios to get him up earlier.  That's ridiculous. 

 

It also amazes me that posters here can be wrong repeatedly yet presume they know better than the people with far more experience and far more information.  We are not scouting them and we have not been seeing the scouting reports the FO sees on a consistent basis.  I seem to recall the same statements here about Meyer.  How about It would be a travesty if Buxton were not called up.  Well, he was obviously not ready and has sucked offensively.  Milone and Pelfrey did not belong in the rotation but where we be without them.  Most were down on Jepsen.  He has been great.  Many here said the team would lose 90 games again because TR was not making the moves they thought he should.  The fact is he transitioned a team from sucking to contention and did it without giving up the future. The worst thing he did was not ass long-term contracts which were mostly cheered here.  We should all be very happy.  I by no means suggest any of us should think everything has been done perfectly but the team is back in contention and the future looks very bright.  Why exactly are people complaining and continuing to presume they would make better decisions than TR. 

 

 

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So wait a minute -- yesterday I read this story from Berardino headlined "Twins haven’t ruled out a promotion for Jose Berrios":

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/09/01/twinsights-twins-havent-ruled-out-a-promotion-for-jose-berrios/

 

 

Then THE VERY NEXT DAY, they announce that he's out.  What exactly did they discuss in those 24 hours?  What finalizing was needed to seal this deal?

 

And the worst part is, they didn't even shut him down immediately (which might indicate, we think he's fatiguing and want to protect him) -- they said, he'll get one more meaningless start at Rochester first, THEN we'll protect him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You are exactly right, Ryan didn't bring him up because he didn't want to take anyone off the 40 man and start the service clock

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I guess I'm of the mind that if one of the best pitching prospects in the game actually wins the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year two years running, that probably means he spent too much time in the minors. 

 

The bullpen was a complete train wreck from June until about two weeks ago, even if there wasn't room in the rotation, there was in the bullpen.  This stuff about it being hard to transition to the bullpen sounds like mularkey to me, just about everyone in the pen transitioned to a relief role at some point in their baseball journey.

 

Yes I want Berrios under contract as long as possible, but judging by the league-wide trends, there is a very good chance that he'll end up being better as a 21-year-old than he will as a 28-year-old. 

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It's September 3rd.  The Twins are sill playing very meaningful baseball in a season where they were supposed to be in the cellar.  Yes, having Berrios up to get his feet wet would have been nice.  I'm not even remotely upset by this.  I, for one, am enjoying the ride. 

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