Ryan: Berrios will NOT be called up in September

[NoCal]

I think that Berardino had the correct interpretation in his article. This is about protecting some other talent from Rule 5 selection. Both the Twins and the Pirates (and others) are organizations that have lots of talent, and teams are now willing to hold onto a Rule 5 selection for an entire year, even if it results in a wasted roster spot (note especially how an unusually large number of Rule 5 selections stuck with their teams - including JR Graham on the Twins); so the Twins and the Pirates have to delay short term benefits for longer term gains. I suspect that the Twins will be counting on Berrios being in their rotation next year, but now they won't have to use a roster spot until April, enabling them to keep one more of their assets in the system. They will probably lose some talent this Fall in the Rule 5 draft, and we will be upset about it - and we can blame Ryan then for losing depth.

[kab21]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 1:19 AM, drjim said:

I would have used him more as a multiple inning stack to back up mediocre/short starts. Twins are pretty covered in the last three innings.

Could have managed innings just fine and gave him some reps to prepare for next year.

Building on the failure to call him earlier just a big disappointment and missed opportunity all around.

You are greatly overrating the bullpen and the constant availability of 3 arms.  I would absolutely be mixing him into the last 3 innings with what the Twins have.

[USAFChief]

 

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 2:15 AM, NoCal said:

I think that Berardino had the correct interpretation in his article. This is about protecting some other talent from Rule 5 selection. Both the Twins and the Pirates (and others) are organizations that have lots of talent, and teams are now willing to hold onto a Rule 5 selection for an entire year, even if it results in a wasted roster spot (note especially how an unusually large number of Rule 5 selections stuck with their teams - including JR Graham on the Twins); so the Twins and the Pirates have to delay short term benefits for longer term gains. I suspect that the Twins will be counting on Berrios being in their rotation next year, but now they won't have to use a roster spot until April, enabling them to keep one more of their assets in the system. They will probably lose some talent this Fall in the Rule 5 draft, and we will be upset about it - and we can blame Ryan then for losing depth.

At the least, Berrios better not make the rotation out of spring training.

 

If you're not going to use him this year, at least delay him a few weeks to get another year.

[Badsmerf]

Sorry everyone. I can't post because I started throwing up all over my phone after reading the title.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 2:15 AM, NoCal said:

I think that Berardino had the correct interpretation in his article. This is about protecting some other talent from Rule 5 selection. Both the Twins and the Pirates (and others) are organizations that have lots of talent, and teams are now willing to hold onto a Rule 5 selection for an entire year, even if it results in a wasted roster spot (note especially how an unusually large number of Rule 5 selections stuck with their teams - including JR Graham on the Twins); so the Twins and the Pirates have to delay short term benefits for longer term gains. I suspect that the Twins will be counting on Berrios being in their rotation next year, but now they won't have to use a roster spot until April, enabling them to keep one more of their assets in the system. They will probably lose some talent this Fall in the Rule 5 draft, and we will be upset about it - and we can blame Ryan then for losing depth.

 

I think you and other posters are wildly overrating the importance and magnitude of the Rule 5 draft.

 

Here are the players the Twins have lost (meaning, selected and not returned or traded before opening day) in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, dating all the way back to 1997:

 

2014: Sean Gilmartin

2006: Kevin Cameron

2006: Levale Speigner

 

That's it.

 

Here are all the players the Twins have added (again, leaving off trades, notably Scott Diamond):

 

2014: JR Graham

2012: Ryan Pressly

1999: Johan Santana

 

Keep in mind that the rules changed for the 2006 draft, making fewer players eligible.

 

There is absolutely no reason the Twins can't protect virtually everyone they need to this winter, with or without Berrios.  (There really was no reason they couldn't have also done so last winter -- losing Gilmartin was a result of poor calculation rather than a system overflowing with talent.)

[Monkeypaws]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 12:57 AM, DaveW said:

Could have managed his innings much better. Ryan proving once again he is mediocre at best and incompetent at worst as a GM. It's time for him to go. period.

He's gone from low A to AAA in two seasons, not exactly holding him back.

[Halsey Hall]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 1:14 AM, jimmer said:

I wish I could say this surprises me, but it's exactly what I'd expect from TR.

And exactly what I'd have done. 

[jimmer]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 2:56 AM, Halsey Hall said:

And exactly what I'd have done. 

I have no doubt that's true.

[blairpaul715]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 1:24 AM, DaveW said:

The twins have been in the playoff hunt all season, this isn't something that suddenly happened in the last two weeks, how Ryan and co couldn't fathom and think about how he could make them better if they did make the playoffs or were still in it in sept is just ridiculous plain and simple. In any other sports market Ryan would be getting roasted for this conservative/cheap crap.

Lets see they got better when they brought up Rosario, Hicks , Sano, Milone, Duffey, brought in Jepsen, Cotts........Id say Terry Ryan is making them better despite your constant anti Ryan rhetoric.............and this is not from a Terry Ryan booster, but you cant say he isnt trying to make them better.........just his moves are not to your liking and his team is playing well, with a chance at 85 wins, and very few people expected that, I know i was hoping for 81-81 but was expecting 75ish.

[blairpaul715]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 1:15 AM, DaveW said:

I love that Ryan is so concerned about service time, considering he hasn't developed a pitcher worth worrying about when they hit free agency during his entire time here. (Every talented one was traded)

Not sure if it was on Ryan term, but if Radke was under his watch, that would be ONE, but point is taken.

[Shane Wahl]

I wanted Berrios up this year to either: A. get bullpen time and build back up to being stretched out for a couple lightning-in-a-bottle playoff starts (this isn't a playoff rotation), or B: get bullpen time to be a part of an impressive 'pen full of strikeout guys.

[mudcat14]

I'm not defending the move, but I can certainly understand it.  From a personnel standpoint, the Twins are going to have to make some serious 40 man roster decisions this off-season without utilizing one on Berrios when they're not required to.  This is one of the only downsides of seeing our deep farm system finally coming of age.

 

From the perspective of JO's development, sure getting a taste of big league life in the bullpen due to innings limitations could have been beneficial.  But as Ryan mentioned the other day, Berrios has done nothing but start since his early days in Rookie League ball.  Changing his routine to throw out of the pen, even in low pressure situations may not be all that easy, or beneficial. 

 

I have no doubt JO will be given every opportunity, perhaps even the expectation of breaking camp next spring in the starting rotation.  Unless they were to throw caution to the wind and place him in the rotation right now, is there really enough upside to risk adding him to the roster for the remainder of the season?     

[USAFChief]

I doubt there's another team in baseball that, in the Twins position, wouldn't have found a way to get Berrios into a post season chase.

[drock2190]

ehh its whatever.

 

There is no proof that he would make an impact up here right away. Last year he got called up to triple A for a key start and didn't do very good. Here's to hoping he makes the rotation next year.

[jimmer]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:11 AM, mudcat14 said:

 

I have no doubt JO will be given every opportunity, perhaps even the expectation of breaking camp next spring in the starting rotation.  Unless they were to throw caution to the wind and place him in the rotation right now, is there really enough upside to risk adding him to the roster for the remainder of the season?     

He won't start the season in the rotation, no way.

[1490]

Three questions...

1. Who ever guaranteed that Berrios will automatically make the team better in any capacity?

 

2. If called up to start, who on staff deserves to be replaced for a playoff run by a player yet to make his MLB debut?

 

3. If called up to relieve, is he honestly going to have much of a positive impact on the outcome of the season?

 

Perhaps Ryan made a mistake in not calling him up three weeks ago, or earlier. Too bad. That's the past. This is now. Let's not compound that mistake by attempting to make him a key cog in a playoff run. Or calling him up for the sake of calling him up.

[sane]

"He won't start the season in the rotation, no way"

Because he isn't good enough?

Then I don't want him to hurt us now, and then lose a good player to Rule V, because we put him on the 40-man roster too early.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sounds like it was all about the innings:

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/146993632

 

And also that the Twins are buying into concerns about his size:

 

  Quote

 

"Once the season concludes, he's going to go home," Ryan said. "I've been thinking about this for a while since I came back from there. But we're going to send him home once the season concludes. He's had a fine year, and I don't want to risk him getting hurt. He's near the amount of innings we wanted him to get to, so we don't want to take any chances with him."
 

...
 

"It was difficult," Ryan said. "We're all sensitive to the innings, and there's no question that's a factor. He's also about 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, so it's not like this is a 6-4, 200-pounder. So I'm a little concerned we don't do any damage when he's built up a good resume."

...

"All the other stuff is secondary," Ryan said. "He's got a great future. If he was at 120 innings, it'd be a different story."

 

So what exactly did the Twins think was going to happen, that they had to think about and debate this?  Did they not realize that continuing to take his regular turn in the Rochester rotation would accumulate innings?

 

  Quote

 

Ryan also added he never seriously considered promoting Berrios at any time this season

Translation: "he wasn't in the plans, and I never deviate from my plans."

[USAFChief]

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:23 AM, sane said:

"He won't start the season in the rotation, no way"

Because he isn't good enough?

Then I don't want him to hurt us now, and then lose a good player to Rule V, because we put him on the 40-man roster too early.

He won't be in the rotation to break camp because, if nothing else, letting him spend a couple weeks in Rochester guarantees another year of control.

 

You, of all people, should understand that.

[stringer bell]

As expected, opinions are across the board. After an excellent start by Milone, it is easier to accept that Berrios wasn't necessarily an upgrade in the starting rotation and watching May and Jepsen give the Sox no chance looks like he wouldn't be much help in the bullpen. However, Perkins isn't going to be available and then we're counting on Boyer and Fien.

 

Three factors work against JO being promoted none of them is a deal breaker--service time, 40-man and a perceived limit on innings. I don't think Berrios was considered an option until he went on a roll in his last few starts. He's up against an innings limit, there isn't a starter to clearly be replaced, and he has no real experience in the bullpen.

 

I wanted Berrios promoted, but I'm not broken up that he isn't here. I wish we could see him pitch this season, but I understand their rationale, even if I don't agree with all of it.

[jimmer]

'He's near the amount of innings we wanted him to get to, so we don't want to take any chances with him."'

 

Wasn't there a quote from Anthony saying there was no plan at all concerning innings for Berrios?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:11 AM, mudcat14 said:

From a personnel standpoint, the Twins are going to have to make some serious 40 man roster decisions this off-season

Again, no. They have a few marginal guys becoming eligible, and plenty of spots coming open to protect them assuming they have any skill at identifying the likely selections. The marginal value of 1 more slot for Rule 5 purposes is almost zero, like last winter when we protected a pile of pitchers almost permanently stuck at the bottom of our relief pitcher depth chart and failed to protect Gilmartin. That wasn't a case of too few spots, it was a case of bad risk assessment and talent evaluation.

[jimmer]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:23 AM, sane said:

"He won't start the season in the rotation, no way"

Because he isn't good enough?

Then I don't want him to hurt us now, and then lose a good player to Rule V, because we put him on the 40-man roster too early.

That's absolutely not why.

 

And we have plenty of fodder on the 40 man to lose right now without blinking.

[USAFChief]

Let there be no complaining about Boyer and/or Fien protecting a one run lead, or blowing an extra inning game.

 

None.

[sane]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:26 AM, USAFChief said:

He won't be in the rotation to break camp because, if nothing else, letting him spend a couple weeks in Rochester guarantees another year of control.

You, of all people, should understand that.

You are right! That could keep him in Rochester on Opening Day.

Of course, if he never gives up a fair ball in ST games, Terry will have some 'splaining to do, Lucy!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:27 AM, stringer bell said:

I don't think Berrios was considered an option until he went on a roll in his last few starts.

That's a clear error then. Berrios was a consensus top 20 prospect in MLB, pitching well at the highest level of the minor leagues. Why would they wait until he was within 25 innings of his known limit to consider this, then let him make multiple starts at AAA while they were considering?

 

I don't think there was ever consideration, not by TR anyway.  That's the problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:23 AM, sane said:

Then I don't want him to hurt us now, and then lose a good player to Rule V, because we put him on the 40-man roster too early.

 

Did you miss my earlier post on Rule 5 history?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19994-ryan-berrios-will-not-be-called-up-in-september/page-2?do=findComment&comment=397749

 

Long story short: the odds are extremely long that we will lose a good player in the Rule 5 draft because of having one less spot to protect someone.

 

If Terry Ryan can't sort through 8 marginal candidates and pick the correct 7 to protect, or more realistically maybe 12 marginal guys counting some suspects already on the 40-man too, that's a fault with him.  And it's NOT worth passing up adding a potentially elite pitching talent to a realistic playoff push just to give TR an extra spot to cover his Rule 5 butt.

[drjim]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:11 AM, USAFChief said:

I doubt there's another team in baseball that, in the Twins position, wouldn't have found a way to get Berrios into a post season chase.

 

Actually there are. Pittsburgh has a very similar (though not perfect comp) situation with Glasnow and aren't calling him up. And Glasnow is also a year older and has many fewer innings this year.

 

I don't think the Twins are a unique outlier, there would have been more of a split than you are allowing here.

 

I still would have called him up.

 

EDIT: And I forgot Blake Snell with the Rays, which is even a better comp than Glasnow. Another guy who is a year older and has less innings and isn't coming up to a team that could use him.

 

So, to recap, 4 teams had pitchers in a similar spot as Berrios and 3 didn't call them up, including the Rays and Pirates, two of the most respected organizations in the game. The one that did was the Yankees with Servino, a franchise in a different stratosphere as these three. Let's not pretend that Ryan is crazy here.

 

I still would have called him up.

[sane]

 

"And we have plenty of fodder on the 40 man to lose right now without blinking"

 

I am expecting to lose Thompson, Darnell, Graham, Boyer, Duensing and Robinson.

I am expecting to add A.B. Walker, Tyler Rogers, J.T.Chargois,  Engelb Vielma, Zack Jones and

Felix Jorge.

Who else is fodder?

[Rosterman]

I guess you don't want to add him to the roster so you can protect Sean Gilmartin. Wait, keep Aaron Thompson or Logan Darnell, or have a place for Alex Wimmers.