Berrios and the 40 Man Jam

[jimmer]

Twins rotation WAR in 2nd half: 1.6 (tied for 23rd in MLB).  ERA in 2nd half 5.02, FIP 4.54.

Twins bullpen WAR in 2nd half: 0.1 (21st in MLB).

[drjim]

 

I think you and other posters and misinterpreting some of these posts. I don't think anyone (well, most anyone -- it is TD after all ) is actually claiming that Berrios would perform at that level immediately, just that it was a possibility worth investigating (and planning to investigate) given the circumstances that have been known for the past 2-3 months.

 

If anything, the "don't call him up in 2015" crowd is the one making the most presumptions about Berrios' expected performance level, both in 2015 ("not good enough to help right now") and beyond ("this definitely makes us better from 2016-2022").

 

I realize that is not majority view, it was a response to a specific post in this thread.

 

I'm also part of the call up Berrios now crowd, but have a more specific role in mind for him.

[drjim]

 

Twins rotation WAR in 2nd half: 1.6 (tied for 23rd in MLB).  ERA in 2nd half 5.02, FIP 4.54.

Twins bullpen WAR in 2nd half: 0.1 (21st in MLB).

 

Bullpen WAR is beyond pointless.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I realize that is not majority view, it was a response to a specific post in this thread.

Even that post, I think, wasn't applying certainty to that level of performance from Berrios.  The poster used the word "could", not "would".

 

And frankly, given his recent results at AAA, and the fact that he's not being shut down for fatigue (he's getting a meaningless curtain call start in Rochester), I think what "could" have been possible for Berrios this year might have surprised us.

[TheLeviathan]

I think given his track record of taking time to adjust to each level, we should have very tempered expectations whenever the call comes.

 

The best reason to have him up is to give him time to adjust so next year is better. The consequence of that is to expect him to struggle which could hurt the team. I know this is a hard concept for some of you, but sometimes young talent is too much of a wildcard to risk if you are only focused on immediate contributions. I don't think that's why the Twins waited, but to destroy them about "best players" totally overlooks how likely it is that he'd struggle initially.

 

The best benefit to his call up isn't likely to be his performance, but more that we get his initiation out of the way.

[jimmer]

 

 I know this is a hard concept for some of you, but sometimes young talent is too much of a wildcard to risk if you are only focused on immediate contributions..

I doubt it's a hard concept for anyone to understand.  Why don't you stick to points instead of taking shots at posters?  I'm sure any concept you can understand can be understood by anyone else.

[Dman]

I came into this thread thinking TR's decision was fine but SpyCake has brought up several good points and I think the Twins could use his arm in the pen.  Berrios is a hard worker, has plenty of confidence and throws a variety of pitches. I really think he could help the team now and not jeopardize service time or create 40 man issue's.  

 

As several others have said it is hard to say how he would perform at the MLB level but he seems so prepared it seems hard to believe he wouldn't do well.

 

I am fine with Twins decisions but without more information it is hard to say they are doing everything they can to try and win the Wild card spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am sure TR believes he is doing everything he can, according to the parameters of his largely static plan.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I came into this thread thinking TR's decision was fine but SpyCake has brought up several good points and I think the Twins could use his arm in the pen.  Berrios is a hard worker, has plenty of confidence and throws a variety of pitches. I really think he could help the team now and not jeopardize service time or create 40 man issue's.  

 

As several others have said it is hard to say how he would perform at the MLB level but he seems so prepared it seems hard to believe he wouldn't do well.

 

I am fine with Twins decisions but without more information it is hard to say they are doing everything they can to try and win the Wild card spot.

 

that last sentence is the crux for me.....are they really trying to win this year, or not? Sure, if they really think his arm is about to fall off, shut him down. But, he is getting another start in Rochester then, so they can't think he's at or close to his limit, surely they wouldn't risk injury for a meaningless AAA start.

 

I believe, and I think others who know more about baseball than me believe, they are not going for it this year, and they are worried about 2021 and 2022. That's their right, of course, but no one is required to be happy about that.

[USAFChief]

A bullpen role would be the only possibility at this point. And as drjim points out, a 2-3 inning role would have been perfect.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I think we are looking at what Berrio's hypothetical role on this team would have been, and ignoring that the team had other options. If he truly is just being limited with innings, and we were both worried about him pitching deep in to game or pitching out of the bullpen....is there other options? 

 

I do not understand why the Twins could not just have a special plan with him as a starter. We are allowed a 40 man roster right now, I am guessing there are several more RP's that we could call up if we wanted. If so, why not just plan on starting Berrio's, but with the strategy of only pitching him 4-5 innings, while then using the added bullpen arms to help finish out the game.

 

Seriously, if we wanted, how many bullpen arms could we have on the team right now if we wanted them up? If we could stalk a team full of RP's, then there is no need to worry about a guy going deep into games. Just use your RP's. We have enough LHP's that we could use the split advantage pretty well if we had to. Does any team ever do this? Use a ton of RP's in September? It seems like you could really do this as a strategy and to rest your SP's and regular RP's in some games.

 

There is currently 20 guys on our 40  man roster, couldn't they all be up right now to be used in the facet?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think given his track record of taking time to adjust to each level, we should have very tempered expectations whenever the call comes.

 

The best reason to have him up is to give him time to adjust so next year is better. The consequence of that is to expect him to struggle which could hurt the team. I know this is a hard concept for some of you, but sometimes young talent is too much of a wildcard to risk if you are only focused on immediate contributions. I don't think that's why the Twins waited, but to destroy them about "best players" totally overlooks how likely it is that he'd struggle initially.

 

The best benefit to his call up isn't likely to be his performance, but more that we get his initiation out of the way.

Berrios didn't need to replace anyone important. Like May, he could have gotten his relief feet wet iin low leverage situations first, with an eye toward more important innings later if he was up to the challenge. If he wasn't, as you say we get a side benefit of jump-starting his MLB transition, like Gibson and May before him.

 

There is/was tons of room on this staff for even just another solid reliever. Fien is still getting important innings. But I guess that was part of TR's plan before the season too, so he can shrug his shoulders about it when it continues to not work...

[TheLeviathan]

 

Berrios didn't need to replace anyone important. Like May, he could have gotten his relief feet wet iin low leverage situations first, with an eye toward more important innings later if he was up to the challenge. If he wasn't, as you say we get a side benefit of jump-starting his MLB transition, like Gibson and May before him.

There is/was tons of room on this staff for even just another solid reliever. Fien is still getting important innings. But I guess that was part of TR's plan before the season too, so he can shrug his shoulders about it when it continues to not work...

 

If all he's tossing are low leverage innings where screwing up isn't a big deal - then what the hell are people talking about?  I have a hard time reading most of these posts as saying they want him in the Graham or Pressley role.  People are talking about replacing Fien.

 

Now, your suggestion is exactly the role I'd have liked to see him in to get acclimated to the big leagues.  I think that's a reasonable take that is thoughtful about how young kids adjust.  But most people whining about this are expecting to slot him as the 7th inning guy right now.  So I'm not sure your point really makes much of a difference to what I said.  Though I agree with it completely.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I doubt it's a hard concept for anyone to understand.  Why don't you stick to points instead of taking shots at posters?  I'm sure any concept you can understand can be understood by anyone else.

 

If it's so easy, the constant contradictions and hypocrisy would be a lot less rampant.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If all he's tossing are low leverage innings where screwing up isn't a big deal - then what the hell are people talking about? I have a hard time reading most of these posts as saying they want him in the Graham or Pressley role. People are talking about replacing Fien.

 

Now, your suggestion is exactly the role I'd have liked to see him in to get acclimated to the big leagues. I think that's a reasonable take that is thoughtful about how young kids adjust. But most people whining about this are expecting to slot him as the 7th inning guy right now. So I'm not sure your point really makes much of a difference to what I said. Though I agree with it completely.

My point is, use him in low leverage spots for his first couple appearances. Then move him into the 7th inning role or something like that if he looks ready. It's not an either-or thing, seems perfectly consistent and logical.

 

Had they started this process when he still had some innings to spare a few weeks ago, he could already be in those higher leverage spots. Or if he struggled maybe he would be reeled back and shut down eventually. Either way I'd feel better about our stretch drive approach.

[TheLeviathan]

My point is, use him in low leverage spots for his first couple appearances. Then move him into the 7th inning role or something like that if he looks ready. It's not an either-or thing, seems perfectly consistent and logical.

Had they started this process when he still had some innings to spare a few weeks ago, he could already be in those higher leverage spots. Or if he struggled maybe he would be reeled back and shut down eventually. Either way I'd feel better about our stretch drive approach.

Maybe, but look how long it took to stretch May into that. Right or wrong, if that's the process for this team Berrios isn't stepping into high leverage situations for awhile.

[USAFChief]

 

Maybe, but look how long it took to stretch May into that. Right or wrong, if that's the process for this team Berrios isn't stepping into high leverage situations for awhile.

How about we started when May made that 3 inning spot start, on a night which just happened to coincide with Berrios' next start.

 

From which, you start working him into a more and more important bullpen role.

 

From which, best case, Fien isn't blowing a game in the 7th today.

 

Worst case, Fiend is blowing a game in the 7th today.

[TheLeviathan]

 

How about we started when May made that 3 inning spot start, on a night which just happened to coincide with Berrios' next start.

 

From which, you start working him into a more and more important bullpen role.

 

From which, best case, Fien isn't blowing a game in the 7th today.

 

Worst case, Fiend is blowing a game in the 7th today.

 

We don't disagree that Berrios should have been up then and should be up now.  But we have to deal with the present and the likeliest scenario.  People want him up now in Fien's role and I find that pretty preposterous.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe, but look how long it took to stretch May into that. Right or wrong, if that's the process for this team Berrios isn't stepping into high leverage situations for awhile.

From May's first relief appearance to his 8th inning hold against the Yankees was 14 team games.

 

Even if they didn't call up Berrios until Sep. 1 and followed the same schedule as May, he could have been in high leverage spots by Sep. 15 with 3 weeks to go in the season (plus potential tiebreakers and postseason). Call him up around Aug. 20 (when you would have had to cut back his innings at AAA anyway) and he could have been in that high leverage spot today, maybe for a couple innings to give May and Jepsen a break.

 

Would have loved to see if that was even a possibility.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We don't disagree that Berrios should have been up then and should be up now. But we have to deal with the present and the likeliest scenario. People want him up now in Fien's role and I find that pretty preposterous.

Everybody that wants him up today wanted him up a few weeks ago. What is preposterous is treating those as separate independent arguments.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Everybody that wants him up today wanted him up a few weeks ago. What is preposterous is treating those as separate independent arguments.

 

Because it's no longer several weeks ago.

[USAFChief]

 

Because it's no longer several weeks ago.

I'd have rolled with him to start the 7th today even if he was called up 4 days ago.

 

I pretty much KNOW Fien is a risky option, with limited stuff.  He will throw strikes, but he's going to need the ball to be hit at somebody.

 

I'd prefer the possibly risky option.  Berrios might come in and have no control, but he might come in and get 2 K's and a weak popup.

 

But we'll never know.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'd have rolled with him to start the 7th today even if he was called up 4 days ago.

 

I pretty much KNOW Fien is a risky option, with limited stuff.  He will throw strikes, but he's going to need the ball to be hit at somebody.

 

I'd prefer the possibly risky option.  Berrios might come in and have no control, but he might come in and get 2 K's and a weak popup.

 

But we'll never know.  

 

I agree, I'd like to take the chance.  I just would keep tempered expectations.