Berrios and the 40 Man Jam

[Halsey Hall]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 5:04 PM, Shane Wahl said:

What? They wouldn't just lose one immediately! I don't understand this post.

Guess I didn't understand they wouldn't lose anyone immediately when, if, he was brought up.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:16 PM, jaimedude2 said:

This is a no brain er, all they need right here can JO Berrios help the Minnesota Twins win baseball games this year. YES. Everything they need to know is highighted by Spycake, they should be bringing Berrios up to the big league roster because he can help us this year and he can sub in if Pelfrey or Milone continue to falter.

Service time/ arbitration years, 40 man rule 5 considerations all of that stuff is cannon fodder and B with a captial S if they leave him down. Twins come up one or two games short and that Start against Cleveland and the Yankees series loom large as to the decisions GM Ryan has made this year. Berrios should already be here. 

 

The start in Cleveland where we were 1 hit by Kluber? 

 

None of the starters were bad in New York, the bullpen lost this team 2 out of 3 of those games.  If the Twins end up 1 or 2 wins short this year, speculating that not starting Berrios is far down on the list of things to blame. 

[Halsey Hall]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 6:08 PM, stringer bell said:

 

I would edit Mike's comment like this: If Berrios can't help the team in the long run, the Twins are in trouble. He's 21 and pitched more professional innings than he ever has. He might or might not be able to help this year. If he busts, the Twins really don't have many high-quality options in the next couple years, when the lineup should be much improved.

If Berrios can't help, this team is in trouble in the long run. I doubt more that 10 people on the planet think that is true today.

 

 

 

 

Let's hope he was thinking something like that!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:32 PM, SwainZag said:

The start in Cleveland where we were 1 hit by Kluber?

As has been repeated many times, losing that game wasn't the problem -- the problem was taking May out of the pen for a week around that game.  If not Berrios, Graham was going to pitch multiple innings in the bullpen game anyway, might as well let him start it and only use May if needed.

 

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:32 PM, SwainZag said:

None of the starters were bad in New York, the bullpen lost this team 2 out of 3 of those games.  If the Twins end up 1 or 2 wins short this year, speculating that not starting Berrios is far down on the list of things to blame. 

Exactly!  We could have used May in the bullpen in the Yankees series (and in the preceding Texas series).  But he wasn't available, because we wanted him to lead off a bullpen game against Kluber.

 

Berrios doesn't even have to enter into it, pulling May from the pen for a week for that abbreviated start was an incredibly poor decision.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:25 PM, Hrbowski said:

A team would pick Chargios or Walker for sure.

Walker for sure?  I am not so sure about that.  From what I've read, he's not even a good corner defender.  Seems like a bad fit for a Rule 5 pick.  Rogers, Chargois, and Jones would seem to be the mostly likely on this list, as they can be stashed in a bullpen and all have high-minors experience.

 

In any case, I did the math upthread.  You could protect Chargois, Walker, basically all 8 possibilities that Berardino mentions, and still have 40-man room for Berrios this winter if you want.  It's not that hard.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:27 PM, jimbo92107 said:

I still think Wimmers might be really good next season.

Wimmers will be 27 this winter.  He went unclaimed last winter after a better (albeit shorter) AA season in 2014.  I doubt he needs to be protected.

[jimbo92107]

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:59 PM, spycake said:

Wimmers will be 27 this winter.  He went unclaimed last winter after a better (albeit shorter) AA season in 2014.  I doubt he needs to be protected.

I'm predicting Alex Wimmers will be a late-bloomer. If he doesn't get on the 40, it would not surprise me if he got snagged. Top pitcher in the Big 10 coming out of college. Two years after TJ surgery. Them stars is almost all lined up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In any case, they probably have room for a wild card protection like Wimmers if they want, and still have room for Berrios. The 40-man picture just isn't that crowded unless you view a lot of marginal guys as untouchable.

[darin617]

Really? They are going to use the excuse about possibly not  calling him up so they can protect another player. Give me a break they seem to be protecting like 4-5 catchers every year and they are all garbage. I would be thrilled if some of them would be claimed. We are no experts but when you look at the players they have protected in the past it just makes you shake your head to think they would get claimed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 5:53 PM, zenser said:

Don't forget we will need a spot on the 40 and 25 man roster next year for the rule 5 guy we will pick up to help out the bullpen.

 

Pure gold.

[USAFChief]

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:32 PM, SwainZag said:

The start in Cleveland where we were 1 hit by Kluber? 

 

None of the starters were bad in New York, the bullpen lost this team 2 out of 3 of those games.  If the Twins end up 1 or 2 wins short this year, speculating that not starting Berrios is far down on the list of things to blame.

 

If the Twins miss the post season by 2 or less games, my opinion will be the May decision is the direct cause. And I think it might be reasonable to stretch that to three games.

 

I really don't even think whether or not that decision cost the Twins is reasonably debatable.

[sane]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 5:04 PM, Shane Wahl said:

What? They wouldn't just lose one immediately! I don't understand this post.

They will lose one immediately (Thompson?) BUT NOT ANY ONE VALUABLE!

In December,with Berrios having been put on the 40-man in September (unnecessarily for Rule V purposes) they may lose someone valuable to Rule V.

[sane]

"Don't forget we will need a spot on the 40 and 25 man roster next year for the rule 5 guy we will pick up to help out the bullpen"

That is hilarious and sarcastic, but next year, IMO it would be a terrible plan!

[Badsmerf]

  On 9/2/2015 at 11:02 PM, sane said:

They will lose one immediately (Thompson?) BUT NOT ANY ONE VALUABLE!

In December,with Berrios having been put on the 40-man in September (unnecessarily for Rule V purposes) they may lose someone valuable to Rule V.

You do know they get to choose who they take of the 40 man.... Right?

[sane]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 11:24 PM, Badsmerf said:

You do know they get to choose who they take of the 40 man.... Right?

Yes, they can choose now. (My guess is Thompson, who will go later, if not now).

However, in December, during the Rule V draft, another team will select someone who DIDN'T make the 40-man, because Berrios took that spot. And Berrios COULD have been added to the 40-man next spring, instead of this month.

[Badsmerf]

  On 9/2/2015 at 11:31 PM, sane said:

Yes, they can choose now. (My guess is Thompson, who will go later, if not now).

However, in December, during the Rule V draft, another team will select someone who DIDN'T make the 40-man, because Berrios took that spot. And Berrios COULD have been added to the 40-man next spring, instead of this month.

Guess it doesn't matter if you've already given up on the season. I haven't. I want them to make the wild card game and win it. I doubt this team can win a divisional round, but it will be fun to watch.

[sane]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 11:39 PM, Badsmerf said:

Guess it doesn't matter if you've already given up on the season. I haven't. I want them to make the wild card game and win it. I doubt this team can win a divisional round, but it will be fun to watch.

I think they have a much better chance to win IT ALL, AFTER this season, than they do this season. I would rather Berrios be available when they have that better chance. I haven't given up on this season, but I want to save my chips for when I have a GREAT HAND!

[Thrylos]

When you have a chance to win a post-season spot, you have the best players in the organization in the majors and you worry about 40-man rosters when you have to worry about them...

 

Everything else is smoke and mirrors and lies and excuses, unless he is that incompetent...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 12:02 AM, sane said:

I think they have a much better chance to win IT ALL, AFTER this season, than they do this season. I would rather Berrios be available when they have that better chance. I haven't given up on this season, but I want to save my chips for when I have a GREAT HAND!

This isn't poker, and Berrios is not a chip you would "lose" by using him this season. Berrios' 2022 season isn't even a chip you would necessarily "lose" if you kept him down until mid-May next year.

 

If you are within 1 game of a playoff spot in September, you almost certainly have a better chance to win the World Series, than with any record you might have in mid-May. There is tremendous value in staying in the race this long, plenty of teams who were supposed to be better than the 2015 Twins have failed to do it (and that group will probably include some "better" Twins teams from 2016-2022 too).

[jimmer]

Our record this year is pretty surprising.  Not sure how anyone can think we will have a better chance to make the playoff next year than this year.  'Build and hope for the future' is the Twins FO motto.  That and 'Now isn't the time to make bold transactions, NEXT year will be.'

[Badsmerf]

  On 9/3/2015 at 12:02 AM, sane said:

I think they have a much better chance to win IT ALL, AFTER this season, than they do this season. I would rather Berrios be available when they have that better chance. I haven't given up on this season, but I want to save my chips for when I have a GREAT HAND!

Why do you think you have to choose? Most great players get arb years bought out anyway.

 

If you're worried about berrios arm, then that is on Terry Ryan too. He could have easily accounted for that through the year by skipping starts or pushing him back a start here and there. Not having his arm available for a playoff run in September is indefensible.

[sane]

 

 "that is on Terry Ryan too"

I really don't give a bleep WHO it "is on".

I want to try to win a W.S. when we have a good enough team to pull it off.

Not when we start Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone, Hughes and two rookies (Duffy and Berrios) against Wacha, Lackey, Lynn, and Martinez; or Greinke, Kershaw, Anderson and Wood.

Good luck with THAT!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 3:04 AM, sane said:

I want to try to win a W.S. when we have a good enough team to pull it off.

Not when we start Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone, Hughes and two rookies (Duffy and Berrios) against Wacha, Lackey, Lynn, and Martinez; or Greinke, Kershaw, Anderson and Wood.

Good luck with THAT!

I want to try to win a World Series, by (at minimum) identifying and using the best 25-40 players already in our organization, every year. (Especially any year where we are contending and improving with 1 month to go -- service time and marginal Rule 5 candidates and rigid "plans" might have a place in April of any season, but not when contending with a month to go)

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 12:02 AM, sane said:

I think they have a much better chance to win IT ALL, AFTER this season, than they do this season. I would rather Berrios be available when they have that better chance. I haven't given up on this season, but I want to save my chips for when I have a GREAT HAND!

 

Awfully confident about the roster in 2022, I see.....

[Shane Wahl]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 11:02 PM, sane said:

They will lose one immediately (Thompson?) BUT NOT ANY ONE VALUABLE!

In December,with Berrios having been put on the 40-man in September (unnecessarily for Rule V purposes) they may lose someone valuable to Rule V.

 

Sure, but the article was about actual valuable or potentially valuable prospects that would be lost and about how Terry Ryan apparently factored that into his consideration.

I then proceeded to go through the whole list and then the current 40-man ending any thought that there was anything remotely warranted about Ryan's concerns.

[Shane Wahl]

Sheehan went a little ballistic a week ago about all of the "do you think (Team X) has what it takes to win the World Series" where Team X is any team making or likely making the playoffs. His answer was OF COURSE, they all do, since the baseball playoffs are flukey and anyone can beat anyone over a 5 or 7 game series. Even bad teams have great 10-game runs.

 

The Twins have almost as good a chance as anyone. What they don't really have, again (!!!), is a dominant pitcher or two dominant pitchers. Berrios absolutely could have been that lightning-in-a-bottle (Beckett 2003). To me selecting three of Hughes, Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone, and Duffey is a lot better than having to roll with four of these guys for a series.

 

Innings could have *easily* been managed (reduce by 25, end of story).

[drjim]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 1:00 PM, Shane Wahl said:

Sheehan went a little ballistic a week ago about all of the "do you think (Team X) has what it takes to win the World Series" where Team X is any team making or likely making the playoffs. His answer was OF COURSE, they all do, since the baseball playoffs are flukey and anyone can beat anyone over a 5 or 7 game series. Even bad teams have great 10-game runs.

 

The Twins have almost as good a chance as anyone. What they don't really have, again (!!!), is a dominant pitcher or two dominant pitchers. Berrios absolutely could have been that lightning-in-a-bottle (Beckett 2003). To me selecting three of Hughes, Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone, and Duffey is a lot better than having to roll with four of these guys for a series.

 

Innings could have *easily* been managed (reduce by 25, end of story).

 

In 2003 Beckett was 23 and in his third season in the majors. It's not a similar comparison. You might get a Bumgarner in 2010, but even that was his second year in the majors.

 

Berrios should be up and would contribute to winning games but you have extremely unrealistic expectations of what he would be able to do for the team this year, even if they had managed innings differently.

[TheLeviathan]

I tend to think this discussion has veered away from reality pretty sharply.  Many are over-estimating how much Berrios would help (in all likelihood) and others are completely ignoring how he might help.

 

I think he should be up, but I do think his potential impact is being a bit overblown.  Most young guys need time to adjust and clearly he's had that pattern as he has advanced.

[drjim]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 4:02 PM, TheLeviathan said:

I tend to think this discussion has veered away from reality pretty sharply.  Many are over-estimating how much Berrios would help (in all likelihood) and others are completely ignoring how he might help.

 

I think he should be up, but I do think his potential impact is being a bit overblown.  Most young guys need time to adjust and clearly he's had that pattern as he has advanced.

 

I really think he could provide value as a 2-3 inning bridge in relief of a poor start to get to May/Jepsen/Perkins, and the shakiness of the current rotation could use someone like that. But man, expecting him to come up and be a really good starter from day one and pitch deep into games late in the season in his first go around the league is such a stretch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 4:02 PM, TheLeviathan said:

I tend to think this discussion has veered away from reality pretty sharply.  Many are over-estimating how much Berrios would help (in all likelihood) and others are completely ignoring how he might help.

 

 

  On 9/3/2015 at 4:20 PM, drjim said:

But man, expecting him to come up and be a really good starter from day one and pitch deep into games late in the season in his first go around the league is such a stretch.

 

I think you and other posters and misinterpreting some of these posts. I don't think anyone (well, most anyone -- it is TD after all ) is actually claiming that Berrios would perform at that level immediately, just that it was a possibility worth investigating (and planning to investigate) given the circumstances that have been known for the past 2-3 months.

 

If anything, the "don't call him up in 2015" crowd is the one making the most presumptions about Berrios' expected performance level, both in 2015 ("not good enough to help right now") and beyond ("this definitely makes us better from 2016-2022").