Article: Twins 8, White Sox 6: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

[John Bonnes]

This game had almost everything a Twins fan would want and a lot they would not. The Twins beat up White Sox ace Chris Sale, blew that lead, tied it up again on Miguel Sano's 176th home run of the year, padded their lead with Piranha-ball - and then damn near blew it again in the ninth inning. Here are three observations about players and events in the game.

 

The Good

It’s no secret that Eduardo Escobar has been ridiculously hot this last week, and that continued with three hits, two of which were doubles, last night. But “hot” might not do him justice, because “hot” implies his improvement is temporary. He’ll undoubtedly cool down – entering yesterday he had a 1.000 OPS since August 5^th – but there are indication that we’re seeing Escobar turn a serious corner.One sign of a player making a fundamental change to his approach is a change in the strikeout-to-walk ratio. Escobar has always been a bit of a free swinger. You might remember us wondering, in early May, when he’d get his first walk of the year. His ratio for his career is close to 3.5:1. It’s hovered around that each year of his career, including this year.

 

Which is why seeing a 10:10 ratio since August 5^th is so jarring. Looking at his career, month by month, we’ve never seen anything like this. It’s only been a month, and I’ll be a lot more excited when I see it for a second month, but this bears watching.

 

Escobar won’t stay this hot. Eventually, pitchers will get the message that if they don’t throw him strikes, they're going to get ahead in the count, so they’ll adjust. But making pitchers throw strikes and not swinging at pitches out of the zone - that’s a skill. I wonder if we’re not seeing the first few signs of a whole new level of production from Escobar.

 

The Bad

 

Byron Buxton has all the tools to be an unbelievably good major league outfielder, and shines defensively even when he’s replacing Aaron Hicks. But he has frequently looked overmatched at the plate. And that isn't just the "eye test." He is off to a historically rocky start statistically.

 

Here are the highest strikeout totals for a Twins player in his first 22 games, along with walks and batting average.

 

Download attachment: Buxton Ks.jpg

 

One can argue that Buxton's strikeout total is partially a result of facing last night’s pitcher, Chris Sale, seven times. Or of ending his last stint with four strikeouts with a broken hand. But even with a handful of fewer strikeouts, he’s in the top three historically. And, of course, the strikeouts aren’t the real issue; it’s the strikeouts plus the lack of walks that is the issue.

 

It’s no big deal for a rookie to struggle when promoted to the majors over his first 20 games. Maybe some hits don’t fall or there is a little nervousness. But there is a difference between some initial struggling and just not being ready for play at this level, and the most frequent place that shows up is in K:BB ratio.

 

Buxton is fun to watch. He’s elite defensively. He should eventually be a star. And he might be the best option the Twins have for a third outfielder when Aaron Hicks comes back, though I think there can be plenty of room for contradicting opinions on that point. (And if you want to hear plenty of contradicting on that point, check out the latest episode of Gleeman and the Geek.)

 

But he looks so overmatched right now at the plate that it isn’t clear that he belongs in the majors yet. Let’s not forget that he’s only 21 years old and has had about a week in AAA. If things don’t turn around in a hurry for him, he might not only lose his starting role in this pennant run, he might also give second thoughts as to which level he should play next April.

 

The Ugly

 

Giggle. Gawd, I love playing the White Sox. Here's the play of the game. Also, your moment of zen:

 

http://m.mlb.com/vid...?game_pk=415617

 

Click here to view the article

[gocgo]

Whoa, whoa, whoa! I would argue that the ugly was behind the plate.  CB Bucknor was horrible...not necessarily biased...just horrible.  What's a strike?  What's a ball? I felt like he was flipping a coin back there.

 

I'm shocked that no one was thrown out.  We survived a CB Bucknor game!

 

CB is consistently voted as one of the worst umpires in the league.  Joe West is still at the bottom of my list, but CB could give him a run for it.

[IndianaTwin]

"Giggle. Gawd, I love playing the White Sox. Here's the play of the game. Also, your moment of zen:

"http://m.mlb.com/vid...?game_pk=415617"

 

 

I've commented before, and others join me in this. The painful part about living near Chicago is that we have to put up with Hawk Harrelson doing games. But in this case, watching that play was even more enjoyable listening to him. Or should l say, "not listening." I'll bet the mute button is still in pain from how hard Hawk had to have been squeezing it for about 10 seconds. Then he went off blubbering about their misplays.

 

Ah.... the sound of silence.

[BHtwins]

Plouffe and Hunter both got horribly screwed by Bucknor.  Im sure Plouffe had no idea what to swing at and what to take by his 3rd at bat. Do they have a history?

[Old Twins Cap]

CB was bad, very bad actually.  But, on the flip side, several of his missed calls were directly the result of Suzuki going out with his glove, catching a strike and continuing to carry the ball and glove out of the strike zone.  Particularly on fastballs from Tyler Duffey. 

 

I never understood how much of a real thing pitch framing was until I've watched Suzuke lunging for balls in the zone and managing to get them called balls.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Bucknor was way too liberal in calling that back door curve for a strike. Many of those pitches started too far outside and never made it back over the plate. Ironically Escobar reached out and hit a single on that same curve ball the other guys were getting rung up on. And then Duffey wasn't getting the low strikes. I thought Duffey pitched well even if the boxscore looks like he suddenly imploded and was maybe left in a couple batters too long. That's why they pay Molitor and not us

[HitInAPinch]

To suck or not to suck.  Is that the question? 

Pedro Florimon was considered an elite defensive shortstop, at least by Gardy.  Where is he now?

 

Buxton has the quick wrists to be able to hit in the MLB.  He just needs time to work out his mechanics some more.  He's been so bad at the plate I can't really tell how good is eye is.  If, like Sano, Buxton had some 0'fer days that included a walk, it would be a different story.  The real question here is whether that should happen while the Twins as a whole are chasing the final WC spot?

[gocgo]

But Buxton did score on a sac fly that many guys wouldn't have even been sent on.

[nytwinsfan]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 1:54 PM, Old Twins Cap said:

CB was bad, very bad actually.  But, on the flip side, several of his missed calls were directly the result of Suzuki going out with his glove, catching a strike and continuing to carry the ball and glove out of the strike zone.  Particularly on fastballs from Tyler Duffey. 

 

I never understood how much of a real thing pitch framing was until I've watched Suzuke lunging for balls in the zone and managing to get them called balls.

Yup, Suzuki had a particularly horrible night framing the ball. I noticed at least three pitches where his glove jerked outside the zone at the last second. He really did Duffy no favors.

[nytwinsfan]

The difference between Sano and Buxton at the major league level versus at the minors (where they put up comparable numbers - obviously Buxton hitting many more 2B and 3B than HR) is really confounding. Some of it is probably small sample size, and some if it may be Buxton being affected more by nerves (which Sano seems completely immune from). Buxton just seems scared up there and like he has no plan. I'm not sure where his lack of confidence comes from . . . other than maybe the thousands of additional people watching each game and the pennant race. The question then is whether you leave him at the majors to work through the nerves. I don't think he's hurting the team much, especially with Hicks and (apparently) Kepler not being options right this second, so I think you let him play through it. If he finds his stride, the upside could still be huge. And frankly, it will probably take a huge upside from a guy like Buxton to give the Twins a chance of going anywhere in the playoffs. So I say roll with him and try not to get down on him too much (he seems to be doing that plenty to himself).

Edited September 2, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Dantes929]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 1:58 PM, HitInAPinch said:

To suck or not to suck.  Is that the question? 

Pedro Florimon was considered an elite defensive shortstop, at least by Gardy.  Where is he now?

 

Buxton has the quick wrists to be able to hit in the MLB.  He just needs time to work out his mechanics some more.  He's been so bad at the plate I can't really tell how good is eye is.  If, like Sano, Buxton had some 0'fer days that included a walk, it would be a different story.  The real question here is whether that should happen while the Twins as a whole are chasing the final WC spot?

 

All relevant points.    Buxton is projected to be an offensive weapon whereas Flormon never was.   If Buxton is still batting .200 when he has as many at bats then the comparison will be more apt.    The real question is whether the Twins have better options.   I don't care to see an infielder out there unless it is Santana.    Would you rather have a non hitting elite defensive center fielder out there in Buxton or a non hitting defensive mediocrity in Hunter out there in a playoff chase.    There is rarely a convenient time for a player to struggle but some players need to do it and maybe need to do it several times before they shine.    I would stick with him.   On his days off he is still an asset as a pinch runner and a late inning defensive replacement.    In games he starts where we are behind late he can be lifted for :Vargas.    No point sending him back down now.    Maybe in a week or two he will have made us forget his bad start.   Hard to believe every scout that has ever seen him can be wrong.

 

[gocgo]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 1:54 PM, Old Twins Cap said:

CB was bad, very bad actually.  But, on the flip side, several of his missed calls were directly the result of Suzuki going out with his glove, catching a strike and continuing to carry the ball and glove out of the strike zone.  Particularly on fastballs from Tyler Duffey. 

 

I never understood how much of a real thing pitch framing was until I've watched Suzuke lunging for balls in the zone and managing to get them called balls.

Yeah, but in fairness to Kurt, Duffey wasn't throwing anywhere near where Suzuki was setting up. Tough to frame an outside pitch when you are set up on the inside.

[Wyorev]

I don't quite get the Florimon comp. I can't imagine anyone getting that.

Buxton and Florimon? 

I listened to the podcast John, and could never quite see your point.

If you or Gleeman struck out that much, we would probably bench you.

If Buxton does, we look forward to when the lessons sink in and he catches on fire. One can almost be certain that he will begin to hit.

That was Gleeman's point. He WILL hit.

Buxton is the kind of player who, when someone suggests that he is somehow like Pedro Florimon, people wonder if that person understands baseball at all...

[troyhobbs]

With Hicks having the year he's having and being in a WC hunt there is no reason to trot Buxton out there once Hicks returns.  He's not ready but can be a nice bench piece to pinch run and sub in defensively toward the end of a game.

[Old Twins Cap]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 2:47 PM, gocgo said:

Yeah, but in fairness to Kurt, Duffey wasn't throwing anywhere near where Suzuki was setting up. Tough to frame an outside pitch when you are set up on the inside.

 

I get that.  But, still, watch a catcher like Salvador Perez and see how steady and calm and smoothly he receives the ball, even if on the other side of the zone.  Umpires like quiet and reward keeping the glove still.

 

There is a way to receive a baseball as a catcher, and it includes how to put up a target, how much to shift your feet, how big and strong you are, how limber and coordinated, how skilled you are with hand to eye coordination.  There's a lot of things to it, and Zukey, as I understand the data shows as well, is not measuring up.

[stringer bell]

Maybe not Good, Bad and Ugly--(Good, Bad and Lukewarm?)--the Twins starting lineup:

 

Good (right now)-Sano, Escobar, Suzuki

 

Bad (currently)-Hunter, Buxton, Plouffe

 

Lukewarm (could change)-Dozier, Mauer, Rosario

 

I caught the game at 4-0 and predicted that despite all the hits that Plouffe, Hunter and Buxton hadn't done anything. Unfortunately, I was right.

 

Right now, not-so-fast Eddie, Sano and Zuke are really going good (Suzuki is going good compared to April-July).

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 3:52 PM, troyhobbs said:

With Hicks having the year he's having and being in a WC hunt there is no reason to trot Buxton out there once Hicks returns.  He's not ready but can be a nice bench piece to pinch run and sub in defensively toward the end of a game.

So who would be the third outfielder? Because Hunter has been much worse than Buxton lately.  Robinson? I can see an argument, but his upside is limited. If Buxton does find his stride, he can provide much more, and if he doesn't, he is pretty close to Robinson. I'd say upside dictates going with Buxton. Unless Kepler is an option (which right now he's not), I'd stick with a Rosario, Buxton, Hicks outfield.

[rghrbek]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 3:52 PM, troyhobbs said:

With Hicks having the year he's having and being in a WC hunt there is no reason to trot Buxton out there once Hicks returns.  He's not ready but can be a nice bench piece to pinch run and sub in defensively toward the end of a game.

I agree with NYTtwinsfan.  Hunter has been awful.   Embarrassingly so.   He also had that ball drop in front of him (close to the line), with a terrible jump and just no speed.  Who doesn't think Rosario or Hicks cannot make that play?   Hunter is a veteran, at the end of his career (at least I hope with the Twins).   Buxton is a rookie, hopefully franchise player.   If they both are going to struggle at the plate, let Buxton play and get valuable experience in a playoff race.   He might figure some things out at the plate.   I do not think playing Robinson more is the answer...

[John Bonnes]

He also made it to second base on a ball that barely made it out of the infield. The boy has some dazzline skills, no question. 

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 2:11 PM, gocgo said:

But Buxton did score on a sac fly that many guys wouldn't have even been sent on.

 

[John Bonnes]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 3:35 PM, Wyorev said:

I don't quite get the Florimon comp. I can't imagine anyone getting that.

Buxton and Florimon? 

I listened to the podcast John, and could never quite see your point.

If you or Gleeman struck out that much, we would probably bench you.

If Buxton does, we look forward to when the lessons sink in and he catches on fire. One can almost be certain that he will begin to hit.

That was Gleeman's point. He WILL hit.

Buxton is the kind of player who, when someone suggests that he is somehow like Pedro Florimon, people wonder if that person understands baseball at all...

 

I don't doubt he will hit. I do doubt he will hit this year. 

 

And I also think he will need some additional bake time in AAA before he's ready for the majors. 

 

I'll add one more thing: I don't want to ruin someone that looks like a thoughtful kid by exposing his confidence to a major beat down when I don't need to. But that's something I'll trust Molitor and the team to better evaluate than I. 

 

[gocgo]

I don't care how ugly it is, beating the White Sox always makes me smile.

[Squirrel]

Anyone coming to Chicago next week to see the Twins (hopefully) take care of the Sox for the season?

[troyhobbs]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 4:41 PM, nytwinsfan said:

So who would be the third outfielder? Because Hunter has been much worse than Buxton lately.  Robinson? I can see an argument, but his upside is limited. If Buxton does find his stride, he can provide much more, and if he doesn't, he is pretty close to Robinson. I'd say upside dictates going with Buxton. Unless Kepler is an option (which right now he's not), I'd stick with a Rosario, Buxton, Hicks outfield.

True. Sorta assuming Hunter breaks out of his funk soon. My personal feeling is when hunter is up I feel like there's a chance he'll get on base and eventually get back on track where with Buxton I'm just hoping he puts it in play and/or sees more than 3 pitches. But if Torii continues to scuffle, then ya, stick w/ Buxton, you're right. Definately not advocating more PT for Robinson.

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 1:58 PM, HitInAPinch said:

To suck or not to suck.  Is that the question? 

Pedro Florimon was considered an elite defensive shortstop, at least by Gardy.  Where is he now?

 

 

A couple of weeks ago, he had a walk-off triple for the Pittsburgh Pirates (2nd? 3rd best team in baseball?). 

 

Drew Butera, considered elite defensively... has played for the Royals and the Angels... Good teams want these types of players around.

[gocgo]

In my perfect world, the Yankees fall apart in September and miss the playoffs. Don't care who else makes it in with the Twins, but I think it would be hilarious if the Yankees, once again, miss the playoffs.

[gocgo]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 6:34 PM, troyhobbs said:

True. Sorta assuming Hunter breaks out of his funk soon. My personal feeling is when hunter is up I feel like there's a chance he'll get on base and eventually get back on track where with Buxton I'm just hoping he puts it in play and/or sees more than 3 pitches. But if Torii continues to scuffle, then ya, stick w/ Buxton, you're right. Definately not advocating more PT for Robinson.

Right now, the most troubling thing to me about Buck is his inability to get a bunt down.  A player with his speed should really have that in his arsenal to get him thru the times when the stick is slumping.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 6:40 PM, Seth Stohs said:

A couple of weeks ago, he had a walk-off triple for the Pittsburgh Pirates (2nd? 3rd best team in baseball?). 

 

Drew Butera, considered elite defensively... has played for the Royals and the Angels... Good teams want these types of players around.

 

I believe Florimon was DFA'd by the Pirates last week.

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 7:23 PM, SwainZag said:

I believe Florimon was DFA'd by the Pirates last week.

 

Yup, but he was a contributor to a winning team and still in their organization.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 9/2/2015 at 6:40 PM, Seth Stohs said:

A couple of weeks ago, he had a walk-off triple for the Pittsburgh Pirates (2nd? 3rd best team in baseball?). 

 

Drew Butera, considered elite defensively... has played for the Royals and the Angels... Good teams want these types of players around.

Why would you mention the walk off triple for Florimon, but then not mention he was DFA'd the next day, went unclaimed by every team in baseball, and was outrighted to the minor leagues?  Doesn't sound like any team wanted him around MLB, much less "good teams".

 

And Butera was deemed expendable by the Dodgers and Angels, and I think he's only sticking with the Royals right now because they have the most durable catcher in the league in Perez.  It's not clear that any other team would want to keep him around other than as a 3rd string guy in AAA.

 

EDIT: Frankly I am not sure what we are arguing about. But I'd guess about 30 out of 30 MLB teams don't want Florimon on their MLB or perhaps even 40-man rosters, and Butera might be very close to that figure too (leaving out the Royals, obviously).

Edited September 2, 2015 by spycake

[Seth Stohs]

Florimon was just added to their 25 man roster this afternoon... Old Friend Deolis Guerra was transferred to the 60 Day DL.