Article: That's The Ticket: Meaningful Games

[Nick Nelson]

Amidst their organizational swoon in recent years, the Twins have typically set a modest goal at the outset of each season: play meaningful games in September. That shouldn't be all that challenging, especially in the era of four wild-card teams, but it's an accomplishment that has eluded the Twins.Here's where the club stood entering the month of September in each of the past four seasons ("Games Behind" indicates how far they were from a postseason spot of any kind, rather than their division deficit):

 

2014: 59-77, 15.0 GB

2013: 58-76, 16.0 GB

2012: 53-75, 19.0 GB

2011: 57-79, 18.0 GB

 

This year, Minnesota enters the month of September at 67-63, trailing the Rangers by just one game for the American League's second wild-card position. While the Twins aren't exactly favored to reach the playoffs (MLB.com lists their postseason odds at 19.8 percent) they are very legitimately in the mix, and if they can keep rolling as they have been lately, with eight wins in their last 10 contests, they're going to make things very interesting as the season winds down.

 

This week's series against a White Sox club that the Twins have beaten up on this year presents a key opportunity.

 

Punching Bag

 

The Twins have scored more victories against Chicago (9) than any other opponent this year. They have won three of four series against the Sox and have taken six of seven games at home. Twins pitching has been able to shut down an offense that ranks last in the AL in OPS, limiting them to 35 runs total in 13 games – a measly 2.7 R/G average.

 

Power v. Power

 

Last year Jose Abreu captured Rookie of the Year honors with a transcendent slugging performance. His 2014 numbers for the White Sox:

 

145 G, 622 PA, .317/.383/.581, 36 HR, 35 2B, 107 RBI

 

Here's how Miguel Sano's numbers this year would project in the same number of games:

 

145 G, 610 PA, .287/.398/.591, 39 HR, 39 2B, 118 RBI

 

As you can see, Sano is having a similar – though slightly superior – campaign to the one that earned Abreu accolades last year. Sano is also on a 100-walk full-season pace, which would double Abreu's total, so the Twins' rookie is showing more patience despite being five years younger than the Cuban import was last season.

 

Lefties Looming

 

As you'll see in the pitching match-up breakdowns below, the White Sox will send three straight left-handed starters to the mound in this series, with gradually decreasing levels of intimidation. As a team, the Twins are hitting .259/.313/.408 against southpaws, compared to .244/.298/.398 against righties – a 25-point improvement in OPS.

 

In particular, here are three hitters to watch against Chicago's port-sider brigade:

 

Miguel Sano: 811 OPS v. LHP

Brian Dozier: 805 OPS v. LHP

Trevor Plouffe: 783 OPS v. LHP

 

Also very much worth noting: Aaron Hicks has CRUSHED left-handed pitching to the tune of .342/.392/.562. He started a rehab stint over the weekend and may return during this series.

 

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

 

Tuesday, 7:10 PM: LHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Tyler Duffey

 

Sale has been an absolute strikeout machine this year. If his 12.0 K/9 sustains, it will be the highest rate for a major-league starting pitcher since Randy Johnson's 13.4 in 2001. Although he has been dominant for the most part, Sale has been susceptible to the occasional clunker, and the Twins have been responsible for a few of those. "The Condor" has yielded more than three earned runs in six of his 25 starts; half of those have been against Minnesota.

 

Duffey is riding a nice hot streak. Since getting shelled by the Blue Jays in his big-league debut, the righty has rebounded nicely, allowing only four total runs over his last three starts while averaging a strikeout per inning. If he can keep the ball in the zone he should be able to take care of business at home against the light-hitting Sox.

 

Forecast (via Weather.com): High of 88, mostly cloudy

 

Wednesday, 7:10 PM: LHP Carlos Rodon vs. LHP Tommy Milone

 

The third overall pick in last year's draft, Rodon is already up in the majors and showing the electric stuff that made him one of the nation's most coveted young arms. He has had his ups and downs, and numerous bouts of wildness, but once he gets in the zone with his mid-90s heater and nasty slider, he's difficult to touch. In the month of August, Rodon put up a 2.48 ERA and held opponents to a .200 average. The Sox went 4-1 in his starts.

 

Milone has been the type of decent, middling starter this year that his track record paints him as. He generally does enough to give the Twins a shot to win, but hasn't turned in a quality start since July 8th. He has beaten the White Sox both times he's matched up with them this season.

 

Forecast: High of 89, mostly sunny

 

Thursday, 12:10 PM: LHP John Danks vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

 

This is certainly the easiest assignment in the series. Danks has been typically mediocre, with a 6-12 record and 4.82 ERA. He has pitched better since the All-Star break but remains quite hittable. The last time the Twins faced him, in June, they broke out of a huge offensive slump to tack nine runs on him in 5 1/3 innings.

 

Gibson was in quite the funk for a while there after the break, but has looked much better his last couple times out. He needs to miss more bats. Only once in his last seven outings has he struck out more than four hitters.

 

Forecast: High of 88, sunny

 

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[DaveW]

Twins have mashed LHP all year. Need the sweep.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Twins have mashed LHP all year. Need the sweep.

Eh, 2/3 at home and splits on the road will probably keep it close.

 

People fret about the Twins' schedule but I see a September with only a moderate challenge:

 

3 vs. ChiSox: yeah, okay, whatever

3 @ Astros: ooh, tough

3 @ Royals: again, tough

3 @ ChiSox: yeah, again, whatever

3 vs. Tigers: phoning it in

4 vs. Angels: could go either way

3 vs. Indians: likely phoning it in

3 @ Tigers: phoning it in

4 @ Indians: even more likely phoning it in

3 vs. Royals: almost surely phoning it in

[DaveW]

Eh, 2/3 at home and splits on the road will probably keep it close.

 

People fret about the Twins' schedule but I see a September with only a moderate challenge:

 

3 vs. ChiSox: yeah, okay, whatever

3 @ Astros: ooh, tough

3 @ Royals: again, tough

3 @ ChiSox: yeah, again, whatever

3 vs. Tigers: phoning it in

4 vs. Angels: could go either way

3 vs. Indians: likely phoning it in

3 @ Tigers: phoning it in

4 @ Indians: even more likely phoning it in

3 vs. Royals: almost surely phoning it in

they don't "need" the sweep, but it would certainly be nice with the way they have mashed LHP all year

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

they don't "need" the sweep, but it would certainly be nice with the way they have mashed LHP all year

I won't frown upon a sweep. It certainly makes that Astros/Royals road trip a bit easier.

 

Also, the Rangers are losing badly tonight so there's that.

[Squirrel]

I want the sweep because, well, it's Chicago.

[HitInAPinch]

Very nicely written!  Seriously, you had me at "Amidst their organizational swoon in recent years, the Twins have typically set a modest goal at the outset of each season: play meaningful games in September."

 

Twins could really use a guy like Abreu hitting behind Sano.  With Sano's patience at the plate, maybe the other way around.  Not sure there's any of those in the minors.  Prospects, yes.  An Abreu, not that I know of.

 

What I'd really like to see out of this series is Buxton taking a few walks.  He really needs to learn the strike zone. 

[drjim]

Eh, 2/3 at home and splits on the road will probably keep it close.

 

People fret about the Twins' schedule but I see a September with only a moderate challenge:

 

3 vs. ChiSox: yeah, okay, whatever

3 @ Astros: ooh, tough

3 @ Royals: again, tough

3 @ ChiSox: yeah, again, whatever

3 vs. Tigers: phoning it in

4 vs. Angels: could go either way

3 vs. Indians: likely phoning it in

3 @ Tigers: phoning it in

4 @ Indians: even more likely phoning it in

3 vs. Royals: almost surely phoning it in

Don't sleep on Cle, they strike me as the team most likely to catch the Twins/Rangers/Astros.

 

Makes the schedule tougher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Don't sleep on Cle, they strike me as the team most likely to catch the Twins/Rangers/Astros.

 

Makes the schedule tougher.

That's why I said "likely phoning it in". Cleveland is on a nice run but I suspect they'll be out of it in a week or two with a few more losses. Whether they decide to start playing prospects more is up in the air.

[James]

 

Very nicely written!  Seriously, you had me at "Amidst their organizational swoon in recent years, the Twins have typically set a modest goal at the outset of each season: play meaningful games in September."

 

Twins could really use a guy like Abreu hitting behind Sano.  With Sano's patience at the plate, maybe the other way around.  Not sure there's any of those in the minors.  Prospects, yes.  An Abreu, not that I know of.

 

What I'd really like to see out of this series is Buxton taking a few walks.  He really needs to learn the strike zone. 

I would say that the Twins could use a guy hitting like Abreu hitting anywhere in the lineup.  He's a pretty special talent.  There aren't a ton of guys like that in the league, so having basically two on the same team would be pretty amazing.  

 

I'm looking forward to this series.  Then again, I always look forward to beating up on the pale hose.