Article: That's The Ticket: Astros Have Out-Of-This-World Talent

[Parker Hageman]

The last time the Astros won more than 70 games, Ke$ha’s “Tik Tok” was the number one song that year according to Billboard’s annual charts.

 

If you didn’t remember that or remember who Ke$ha is, you are excused because no one remembers 2010 or the last time Houston won more than 70 games. That was also the last year the Twins won more than 70 games. If you didn’t recall that, I guess that’s the kind of memory you have when you brush your teeth with a bottle of Jack.

 

Nobody expected 2015 to be much different for the two teams, either. At ESPN, all of the analysts buried the Twins in the Central while most believed that the Astros would be outclassed by the higher-spending Mariners or Angels. Now the two teams, both of whom are in playoff contention, will meet this weekend to prove which can outperform expectations better.While we know the Twins’ are playing winning baseball because of dance parties and Miguel Sano, let’s take a look at how are the Astros doing this.

 

For Houston, the biggest factor is that they have made it extremely difficult to score runs off their pitching staff. Since the start of the second half, they have averaged just 2.97 runs allowed per game -- tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the lowest. The Twins are fortunate to miss their top two starters in Dallas Kuechel and Collin McHugh this series but will still face lefty Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers. Fiers, as participants of the DomiNoNo contest will remember, threw a no-hitter and tragically won everyone a free medium Domino’s pizza two starts ago.

Download attachment: 2nd Half ERA.png

Aiding in the run reduction has been the liberal use of the defensive shift. The Astros have repositioned their fielders all over the diamond to provide the maximum advantage. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have shifted on more occasions this year but the Astros have had 32 more instances than the Rays where the play was impacted by the shift. So either the Astros are positioning smarter or are luckier than the Rays.

 

 

Download attachment: shift.png

Whereas the pitching staff is mature -- they have second oldest collections of throwers in the American League -- the offense has all the young dudes (boogaloo dudes). None more youthful than 20-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa. While Twins fans are fanning themselves nightly over the displays of power from Sano, Astros fans have seen 100 plate appearances more of Correa who has performed well on both sides of the ball. Not only can he hit, he can cover a ton of ground in the infield. This series could prove to be an interesting showcase for the AL Rookie of the Year.

 

Offensively, overall, the Astros are an interesting case study. The forward-thinking front office has compiled a lineup that isn’t necessarily the on-base machines that the Moneyball A’s were known for. Their .214 batting average is the lowest in the American League and their on-base percentage is in the bottom five. Their strategy for scoring runs involves stealing tons of bases (they have swiped an AL-leading 97 bags) and hitting dingers (174). The two game plans (running wild and swinging for the fences) don’t jive considering that the kind of fence-clearing power could score a runner from any base.

 

There is no question that this is a significant series for both teams. The Twins are trying to maintain their position in the wild card race and the Astros are trying to distance themselves from the rest of the AL West. This should be a can’t miss series.

 

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[jimbo92107]

"Their strategy for scoring runs involves stealing tons of bases (they have swiped an AL-leading 97 bags) and hitting dingers (174). The two game plans (running wild and swinging for the fences) don’t jive considering that the kind of fence-clearing power could score a runner from any base."

 

This could be an ominous sign for Mike Pelfrey, who has not looked good against aggressive base-stealing teams. Pelfrey seems to get flustered by the green light on first, and gets frustrated when they steal successfully. He starts rushing his motion, then loses command. Could be a long day Saturday.

 

Also it doesn't help that Twins catchers almost never throw out base stealers. This is why I wanted to call up Stewart Turner, even if the guy's bat is a wet noodle. At least Turner has a legitimate gun behind the plate. Against a team like Houston, that could make more of a difference than a hole in the hitting lineup. Butera 2.0 would look pretty good right now.

[Minniman]

 

Also it doesn't help that Twins catchers almost never throw out base stealers. This is why I wanted to call up Stewart Turner, even if the guy's bat is a wet noodle. At least Turner has a legitimate gun behind the plate. Against a team like Houston, that could make more of a difference than a hole in the hitting lineup.

 

For qualified players, Suzuki is last in MLB with a .183 caught stealing percentage and last in range factor.

 

For comparison, Wilson Ramos is third in MLB with a .422 caught stealing percentage and fourth in range factor.

 

Suzuki is 17th in CERA (of 20 qualified players). I wonder how much better the Twins' pitchers would be with a better catcher.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Minniman

[Loosey]

Thanks a lot Parker,  Now I have Tik Tok in my head. 

But I should have known there was a Ke$ha reference on the horizon today since I woke up this morning feeling like P-Diddy.

[Mike Sixel]

A big change was spending big money on the bullpen (ahem) to go from one of the worst to one of the best in 1 year. Their GM deserves a ton of credit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also it doesn't help that Twins catchers almost never throw out base stealers. This is why I wanted to call up Stewart Turner, even if the guy's bat is a wet noodle. At least Turner has a legitimate gun behind the plate. Against a team like Houston, that could make more of a difference than a hole in the hitting lineup. Butera 2.0 would look pretty good right now.

Turner is 23 years old with a .615 OPS in Chatanooga. He doesn't need to be on the 40 man for what, two more years?

 

There are reasons to be aggressive with promotions... being reckless with them is something else entirely. Turner has no business being in a Twins uniform right now, if only for 40 man concerns (on top of his performance with the stick). If you want to add to the 40 man, you do it with guys like Berrios, who are going to force their way to the majors next season anyway.

[jimbo92107]

 

Turner is 23 years old with a .615 OPS in Chatanooga. He doesn't need to be on the 40 man for what, two more years?

 

There are reasons to be aggressive with promotions... being reckless with them is something else entirely. Turner has no business being in a Twins uniform right now, if only for 40 man concerns (on top of his performance with the stick). If you want to add to the 40 man, you do it with guys like Berrios, who are going to force their way to the majors next season anyway.

Sadly, I agree with your point about Turner. He needs a lot more work before he's ready to face mlb pitchers. Meanwhile, this upcoming series is liable to be a stark reminder why it's a good idea to have a catcher that can throw out more than 15 percent of base stealers.

[Platoon]

There is a lot to be said for a catcher that can hit and play defense. There is something to be said for a catcher that can do one of the two. There is nothing to be said for a catcher who can't do either. Kurts recent little streak belies the fact that his spot in the lineup has been a black hole. And his throwing deficiencies are masked by a puzzling lack of attempts considering his throw out %. And no, I am not calling for Turner this late in the season. That train has left the station.