That drop in his ISO seems extreme, but I suppose it could be that severe. That's also operating under the assumption that his strike out rate remains the same which, hopefully will not be the case. He was more of a 25-26% K% guy in the minors vs the 35.9% he has in the majors.

 

That drop in his ISO seems extreme, but I suppose it could be that severe. That's also operating under the assumption that his strike out rate remains the same which, hopefully will not be the case. He was more of a 25-26% K% guy in the minors vs the 35.9% he has in the majors.

His isoP is .240 in the regression.  That is really, really good and would place him 11th in the MLB for combined isoP from 2000-2015.  Perhaps it should be .250 but people are throwing out numbers (.380 BAPIP) that place Sano far above the current elite players.  He is going to be good but people seem to be putting him in the elite category a little prematurely.

Great discussion of stats and comps, especially by Brock.

 

Next year: I'd be very happy with .260/.345/.500 - and as others have said, could be less.

 

Isolated Power: I think his ISO will continue to freakishly good because he's freakishly powerful. He has already hit home runs off the trademark and the end of the bat. Same with some of his line drive base hits. His ISO hasn't been below .263 since 2010.

 

His BABIP will come down a lot. The key will be his K rate. Frank Thomas? We can only hope...

Edited August 29, 201511 yr by dbminn

I wonder if Sano's BABIP is likely to be higher than most players just because he hits the ball so incredibly hard.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totally agree. Defensive shifts are worthless with this guy unless you're 500 ft tall. Just about every ball I saw him hit in Tampa and Chattanooga are launched into orbit. That line drive double was absolutely smoked in Tampa and the infamous Catwalk blast was awesome. I kid you not, wish you were their, the ball hit to left center, is banging around the catwalk at top of dome roof, half the Rays team waiting for it, then ends up coming down in right center

When I look at Sano, I see (or hope I see) Harmon Killebrew. With a few more K's.

 

That'd be OK with me.