Article: Berrios Dominates Again... Call Him Up!

[Craig Arko]

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but i think there's an open spot already when the Twins DFA'd Fryer...

Neal Cotts filled that, I think.

[jimmer]

He won't be ready until Ryan promotes him to the majors.

[d-mac]

Just like I did over on the Escobar thread, I'm going out on limb here: Jose is our future ace. While I support being cautious with his innings this year, we need to start him in the rotation out of spring training next year. 

 

We've got our ace. Escobar is our SS. Kepler will be our lefty bat in the line-up. Now we need to find a solid young catcher this offseason and assemble a legit bullpen. Now I'm not the most optimistic person in the world, but I am confidently optimistic about next year... as long as Terry Ryan doesn't F*** it up.

[Vanimal46]

Neal Cotts filled that, I think.

Touché I forgot about Cotts.

[Willihammer]

 

Yep, Cotts filled the open spot on the 40 man roster. Rochester is not making the playoffs so the Twins have two options if they want Berrios to continue to pitch, help the big league club to try and make the playoffs or send him to Chatagnooga for the playoffs.

Two things that should decide if Berrios should be added, can he help the Twins now, and would the experience of pitching in meaningful games benefit Berrios to be challenged over the long haul. I think the answer to both questions is yes, Berrios can help the Twins win games and that is why he should be in Minnesota. He has something else that will help the Twins the ability to strike out batters, and the Twins rank last or near last in that category. 

 

There are a couple obvious names on the 40 man roster that could be released Thompson and Wheeler

that easily one of those two would clear waivers, Wheeler would probably has to accept an outright assignment as  I don't think he can become a free agent or go unless someone claims him. Thopmson would be a free agent if they DFA him off the 40 man. He Thompson hasn't done anything in Rochester to warrant being called up. 

And there are 3 guys on the 15 day DL. I'd argue only two should force 40 man moves though: Hicks and Hughes, not Graham. But I am guessing that TR figures that he's protected Graham this far and doesn't want to lose him now.

 

Its increasingly clear that this has nothing to do with Berrios' production or innings (or winning/losing games) and everything to do with protecting players.

[TRex]

 

Caveat - he doesn't *have* to be on the 25-man before Sept 1. Don't forget the injury replacement rules, which would allow them to kick this down the road for at least a couple more weeks should they choose. Next 4 games will dictate a lot I think.

I think he would need to be on the 40-man roster to be eligible for the post-season, though.

 

Is it wrong to hope that Rochester gets eliminated from playoff contention sooner rather than later? 

Edited August 27, 2015 by TRex

[jimbo92107]

 

Great article! Get him up before September 1. Time to get on with it. Santana is not eligible for the playoffs. Berrios has to be.

Yikes, I keep forgetting that! If Ervin Santana is gone for the playoffs, the Twins will need a good replacement. Nobody better than JO Berrios for that, so they might as well get him up now, so he can get past his first game jitters.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'd like to see those studies if you can find them.

 

I think it's also kind of strange we measure workload by innings for youngsters when we measure workload by pitches during a game.  No doubt that the average number of pitches Alex Meyer throws in an inning is going to be higher than Berrios.

True. Not all innings look alike.

 

I think Mike could be right. Link? Foggy memory, but I seem to recall when Johan pitched his no hitter for the Mets, some article showed that pitchers faced most risk when pitch count exceeded something like 130 pitches in a game. Johan needed more pitches than that, and didn't pitch well anytime thereafter, so the narrative became that his no hitter ended his career. I hope that's wrong so that someone will be motivated to correct me, but pretty sure I read that

[Mike Sixel]

Classic sunk cost situation with Graham...."I invested this much, I can't just cut him now"

 

Achter

Tonkin

One of your other favorites, like Thompson, Wheeler, Darnell

Pinto

 

none of them are as valuable to the Twins this year, or as trade bait, as having Berrios in MN and helping them make the playoffs this year.

[jimmer]

 

True. Not all innings look alike.

I think Mike could be right. Link? Foggy memory, but I seem to recall when Johan pitched his no hitter for the Mets, some article showed that pitchers faced most risk when pitch count exceeded something like 130 pitches in a game. Johan needed more pitches than that, and didn't pitch well anytime thereafter, so the narrative became that his no hitter ended his career. I hope that's wrong so that someone will be motivated to correct me, but pretty sure I read that

I already gave a link, right after it was asked for.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I already gave a link, right after it was asked for.

ah thanks.

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150406121354.htm

 

Guilty of hasty reply before reading further in thread.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3. He's not on the 40-man. This is not the best juncture to remove someone from the 40-man to make room for him. There are several players I'd DFA when the season is over but not now.

Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man roster, as is Jason Wheeler.  I can't see either being protected this winter, nor is either useful to the MLB team this September, given that we already have 4 LHP in our bullpen, plus Darnell on the 40-man at AAA, plus Taylor Rogers who could warrant 40-man protection this winter too.  (Plus LHP Milone who might be on the rotation bubble if Hughes comes back or Berrios is inserted.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think he would need to be on the 40-man roster to be eligible for the post-season, though.

 

Is it wrong to hope that Rochester gets eliminated from playoff contention sooner rather than later? 

Correct on the 40-man, but all that means is we can add Berrios to that by August 31, recall him up Sep. 1st when rosters expand, and decide later if we want him to replace someone on the 25-man roster for the postseason.

 

Rochester is all but eliminated from playoff contention.  They are 5.5 games back in their division with 12 to play (and only play the 1st place team 2 more times), and they are 7 games and 3 teams back of the wild card.  Hopefully that is no longer any kind of consideration.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1. He's pitched more innings this year than in any previous season, and more and more baseball people feel that too much throwing early in one's career is linked to the marked increase in TJ surgeries needed in this day and age.

Certainly, and he should be watched closely.  But his performance and starts/innings right now don't suggest he's particularly close to this threshold.

 

2. He's always started, and the Twins have already had to put one starter in their bullpen. Asking Berrios to become a different pitcher may not be wise given his age and number of innings already pitched this year. Even though it would mean fewer innings something like that could throw a young pitcher out of whack.

That's fair, although lots of young pitchers have done it successfully without any issues.  Again, like the total innings concern, he should be monitored closely during any relief "conversion" process, but I don't think it is warranted to not even try simply out of "what if" fear.

[twinsfanstreif]

Question after watching that video, the announcer keeps pronouncing his name like Berr-EEos as I've never actually heard his name this came as a surprise to me. Is that how you pronounce it? I've been saying Berry-os

[Otto von Ballpark]

Berrios actually now has the same number of *starts* as he had in 2014 (25).  We talk about innings, but without a dramatic increase there, maybe starts is a better measure for a lot of guys, considering the entirety of a starting pitcher's preparation schedule?  I'm not sure if an extra 2 outs per start (his innings increase right now) should be more of a precautionary limiting factor, than simply a few more turns through the rotation.

 

If we apply the same 20% rule to starts as we've previously done to innings, he could have 5 starts remaining.  I could definitely get behind giving him those starts at the MLB level.  If he adjusts quickly and succeeds, we could even take protective measures (6 man rotation, skipped starts, pitch counts, etc.) to leave open the possibility of a few extra starts beyond 30 if needed and if he is still looking strong.  I wouldn't be bothered if they want to approach him in the bullpen for September too, but either way he deserves a look in MLB.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Question after watching that video, the announcer keeps pronouncing his name like Berr-EEos as I've never actually heard his name this came as a surprise to me. Is that how you pronounce it? I've been saying Berry-os

The announcer is correct, ba-REE-ohs.  For reference, Baseball-Reference has player name pronunciations, right after the name at the top of the page:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=berrio000jos

[tobi0040]

 

Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man roster, as is Jason Wheeler.  I can't see either being protected this winter, nor is either useful to the MLB team this September, given that we already have 4 LHP in our bullpen, plus Darnell on the 40-man at AAA, plus Taylor Rogers who could warrant 40-man protection this winter too.  (Plus LHP Milone who might be on the rotation bubble if Hughes comes back or Berrios is inserted.)

 

My guess is Milone if moved this off-season. He may actually have some value.  The peripherals are not great, but he has a career 3.94 ERA.  Three years of control (per BR), He will probably cost 3 years and $15-20M.  That contract value has to look somewhat appealing relative to the FA market.

[TRex]

 

Certainly, and he should be watched closely.  But his performance and starts/innings right now don't suggest he's particularly close to this threshold.

 

That's fair, although lots of young pitchers have done it successfully without any issues.  Again, like the total innings concern, he should be monitored closely during any relief "conversion" process, but I don't think it is warranted to not even try simply out of "what if" fear.

I keep going back-and-forth on this...

 

It was pretty obvious that Berrios was tiring last year, his Strike % and #P/In were way down and up, respectively (i.e. he only pitched 24 innings in his last 5 starts).

 

That is not the case so far this year, with his S% remaining at ~65% and #P/In at <15.

 

I don't think the Twins would let him have 5 more starts, though. Especially since it would be significantly more if the Twins went deep in the playoffs since I don't think you could take him out at the divisional round of the playoffs if, as we all hope, he is the best starter we have. No matter how it doesn't fit into our analysis paradigms, I think the payers would revolt if you did that.

 

As an aside, remember that he did pitch out of the bullpen for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.

[Willihammer]

Cotts, Duensing, Milone, Thompson, O'Rourke, Fien, Pelfrey, Achter, Graham... the list goes on. They only have 5-6 guys they'll have to add to protect from the Rule 5.

 

Hopefully the fact that TR travelled to Syracuse signals that he's at least considering adding him now, and wasn't just checking up on the farm or something.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I DO think the Twins believe he is ready to help the MLB team, and if they don't think that...well, there needs to be house cleaning. I can't count how many nationally respected writers have scratched their heads as to why he's still in the minors, while the Twins are so close to winning that final wild card spot. I think I have read two comments about it today already.

 

I don't know what the right answer is, to be honest. The only reason I would want him up for is if we seriously feel we can capture that final wild card spot. Is that risk of bringing him up and not making it, while starting his clock, worth the benefits of making the wild card game? Heck, he'd probably be the only guy who'd give us chance in said wild card play in game. 

 

My guess is that he either is up next week, or is shut down in the next few weeks. The Twins have to be well aware of the outcry their would be if they just missed out on the playoffs, with Berrios dominating for more starts. But, they can give themselves an "out" by shutting him down, so that they can't make it about whether or not he was ready, or the obvious criticism about service time. 

 

I really don't think this is about a 40 man roster spot to protect easily replaceable guys, or whether he is ready. This is about service time, and service time alone. Any other speculation is pretty naive. And, I also understand that is likely a good big picture move. But, if they are serious about the playoffs, there is absolutely no excuse not to bring him up YESTERDAY. If they are not serious, do not bring up, and shut him down soon, so they can have an excuse to keep him back down for a few starts next season to delay his clock. They are making this hard on themselves, but they need to make a decision one way or another after his next start.

[spinowner]

 

Yikes, I keep forgetting that! If Ervin Santana is gone for the playoffs, the Twins will need a good replacement. Nobody better than JO Berrios for that, so they might as well get him up now, so he can get past his first game jitters.

Because of off-days, only 4 starters are needed for the postseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think the Twins would let him have 5 more starts, though. Especially since it would be significantly more if the Twins went deep in the playoffs since I don't think you could take him out at the divisional round of the playoffs if, as we all hope, he is the best starter we have. No matter how it doesn't fit into our analysis paradigms, I think the payers would revolt if you did that.

He's going to get 2 more starts if he finishes at Rochester and is allowed a 20% innings increase over 2014.  So 5 more total would really just be 3 additional starts.

 

I think if you want to deploy him as a starter, you could aim to give him 5 starts through the rest of the regular season and the wild card game.  I don't think you should get too cute about planning for the postseason beyond that, though.  If you get to that point, you don't have to ride him like Bumgarner 2014, you could just use him like rookie Bumgarner in 2010 (1 start per series), assuming he is still effective, of course.

[Boom Boom]

Care to elaborate further on your stance that Berrios isn't ready?

Too many walks... doesn't mix up his pitches enough... he struggles to catch up when he's promoted... we want to make sure that when he's called up it's for good... Aaron Hicks...he's been getting by on trickery that might fool AAA hitters, but major leaguers would eat him alive.

 

Nothing to do with service time though.

[docsillyseth]

I understand the "business side" of things as far as the Super-2 status, service time, why call him up and lose that one year option of arbitration/FA.  But there's also an appropiate "business side" to things that I think is just the right thing to do. The Twins (Pohlads/front office) have not provided a very good product on the field for the previous 4 years or so.  Yet fans have gone to the games, extended their season tickets, etc and have little to show for it.  I think the Twins OWE it to their fan base to call up Berrios because WE have supported them pretty well when the product on the field has not been up to par.  IF we don't make the playoffs and DON'T call Berrios up, then why would season ticket holders want to renew their tickets?  Why should we support them next year when they had to opportunity to add potentially the best pitcher they have to the mix and they didn't do it?  It would show that they are not doing what it takes to win which in turn, I believe is sending the wrong message with a very negative impact to the entire organization and fanbase.  Could be devastating.  IF we call him up and don't make the playoffs, the Twins can say we did what we thought it would take to make the playoffs without trading our assets and look forward to next season with our young, talented club.  Which in turn shows everybody, hey, were here to win but just missed.    They'd have more respect from all parties and next year they'd once again fill the stands which would in turn make them more $$$$$ to pay for that "year of service" they lost.  They owe it to the fans of the Minnesota Twins to do what it takes to make the playoffs and see where the chips fall at that time.  I've been a life long fan and supported them through the bad times (much of these) and the good times.  I myself would/will be extremely pissed if they didn't do anything possible to make a run at the playoffs excluding trading our assets.  We are right there and potentially have the starting pitcher to take us over the top to get that last wild card and NOT trading anything awat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Because of off-days, only 4 starters are needed for the postseason.

True, although usually a starter goes to the bullpen in that scenario.  Santana won't be able to, hence we may need another arm, if not a SP than at least someone capable of long relief.  I guess Duffey might be that guy if Hughes comes back to the rotation, but frankly that staff could still use the help of someone like Berrios if he is capable of providing any.

[Willihammer]

 

Too many walks...

Not trying to be a douche but are you sure you're not thinking of Meyer?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is about service time, and service time alone. Any other speculation is pretty naive.

I don't think the Twins are naive enough to base this solely on service time.  How many pitchers have been held back for service time reasons in MLB?

 

Even the Rays, perhaps the most frugal organization in MLB, which gave Wil Myers his 5th and 6th months in AAA just to avoid Super-2 in a playoff season, have regularly called up top pitching prospects for September pennant races.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not trying to be a douche but are you sure you're not thinking of Meyer?

Pretty sure that poster is being sarcastic.

[Dantes929]

"Tyler Duffey was pitching best for the Red Wings when he was called up. He was drafted the same year as Berrios, but he is three years older because he went to college. He is mature. He was ready for the big leagues. And, he was clearly nervous when he made his debut. It’s fair to say he’s calmed down well over his last three starts.

Summary

 

There are “business” reasons for the Twins to wait until about April 20, 2016, to call him up, but the fact that the Twins are in strong playoff contention in 2015 and the opinion that he may be the best pitcher in the organization right now, it seems pretty apparent (in my humble opinion) that JO Berrios should spend most of September with the Minnesota Twins."

 

I am fine with the conclusion.   Get him up here especially in relief though Duensing, Jepsen, and May have been really good its always nice to have another good option .   The idea that he is the best pitcher in the organization right now is a bit far fetched especially in light of your comment about Duffey who indeed did have a better ERA at AAA and I would not put Duffey ahead of May, Jepsen or even Milone and others.     Let him get a few major leaguers out before even speculating that he might be the best pitcher right now.   

 

 

 

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