Article: Berrios Dominates Again... Call Him Up!

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I don't think the Twins are naive enough to base this solely on service time.  How many pitchers have been held back for service time reasons in MLB?

 

Even the Rays, perhaps the most frugal organization in MLB, which gave Wil Myers his 5th and 6th months in AAA just to avoid Super-2 in a playoff season, have regularly called up top pitching prospects for September pennant races.

 

I did't mean to imply that the Twins are naive, but only that believing that service time is not the greatest variable in all of this is naive. And, of course there are other variables. 

 

The teams like the Rays and A's that are not afraid to bring up young pitching (when their stuff and velocity is still their best) are also the teams that flip these guys for future assets, rather than resign them. They view young pitchers pretty much equivalent as NFL teams now view RB's. Use them up when they are young, and are most physically gifted, but don't waste money on the declining and injury years. The Twins only really traded Garza young, the other pitchers were traded due to selling low.

[Boom Boom]

Pretty sure that poster is being sarcastic.

No way... if you call up Berrios now he'll walk everybody. Then his confidence will be shot and he'll turn into a headcase like Hicks and be ruined forever. For-ever.

[theJemmer]

 

I don't think we'll see Berrios unless there is an injury to some other starting pitcher in the next couple of weeks.

 

Santana next #prediction

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Too many walks... doesn't mix up his pitches enough... he struggles to catch up when he's promoted... we want to make sure that when he's called up it's for good... Aaron Hicks...he's been getting by on trickery that might fool AAA hitters, but major leaguers would eat him alive.

Nothing to do with service time though.

 

2 bb/9 seems reasonable to me, but your prerogative on that. Can't comment on his pitch selection because I haven't seen him pitch... Can we stop using Aaron Hicks as a benchmark of what could happen to upcoming prospects?? You say Aaron Hicks...... I say Miguel Sano...... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I did't mean to imply that the Twins are naive, but only that believing that service time is not the greatest variable in all of this is naive. And, of course there are other variables. 

 

The teams like the Rays and A's that are not afraid to bring up young pitching (when their stuff and velocity is still their best) are also the teams that flip these guys for future assets, rather than resign them. They view young pitchers pretty much equivalent as NFL teams now view RB's. Use them up when they are young, and are most physically gifted, but don't waste money on the declining and injury years. The Twins only really traded Garza young, the other pitchers were traded due to selling low.

I knew you meant fans were naive, but it's also naive to suggest the Twins are focused more on service time for a pitcher than other MLB teams.

 

Seriously, how many pitchers have you heard about who were held back months beyond when they were apparently ready, just to avoid Super-2 or get an extra year of control like Bryant and Longoria?  I can't think of any, really, much less in a pennant race with a record and experience similar to Berrios.

 

Also, the Rays haven't flipped assets like the A's.  They've signed Archer, Moore, and Davis to long-term contracts.  They also called up all 3 of those (plus Price, Hellickson, and Odorizzi) to help the MLB club in a September pennant race.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No way... if you call up Berrios now he'll walk everybody. Then his confidence will be shot and he'll turn into a headcase like Hicks and be ruined forever. For-ever.

Now I think you're doubling down on the sarcasm, right?

 

Earlier in the thread, you said Berrios wouldn't be "ready" until 3 weeks into 2016, but also said it wasn't about service time -- that's what triggered my sarcasm detector...

[Boom Boom]

Now I think you're doubling down on the sarcasm, right?

 

Earlier in the thread, you said Berrios wouldn't be "ready" until 3 weeks into 2016, but also said it wasn't about service time -- that's what triggered my sarcasm detector...

 

Prospects are like souffles in the oven... you open up that oven door too soon and they fall apart.

 

You've just got to be patient... when Santa TR says it's Christmas morning,then we can have our shiny new toy.

 

[DocBauer]

I am of the conclusion/opinion at this point of promoting him. I don't like the idea of adding him to the 40 man this soon, just so we could save another slot for someone else to be protected.

 

But again, I have come to the decision that he should come up. However, my reasoning is different than what's being discussed on here thus far. 

 

Could he help us with our playoff push? Yes. If we watch his pitch and innings count, could he possibly help us in to October should we actually get in this thing and win something? Again, yes. But at that point, I would begin to worry about too much wear and tear on his arm. There may not be direct correlation to injury and sudden jumps is usage from one season to the next, but there is a different in 30 innings and possibly 50 or so. IMHO.

 

The reason I'd like to see him up is to actually see and gain ML experience in preparation for 2016. Can we really doubt that he's going to be part of the rotation next season? And I'm not worried about service time. Barring injury or some such, he's going to be signed to some form of contract or extension before we'd have to worry about his FA year. (same as Buxton and Sano)

 

I am fully aware of contractual obligations we have to SP's on the roster. And I am not slamming the Twins for signing them. But we could realistically see Gibson, May, Berrios and Duffey as part of the 2016 rotation. When is the last time you could say the Twins had four legit young arms to flesh out the rotation? I'd like to get Berrios some time this year to get him better prepared for next year.

[IndianaTwin]

Great article, great comments. Let me summarize what I'm hearing and offer a new option...

 

1-Berrios has continued to be lights out throughout his 155.1 innings, but he has nothing left to prove in the minors.

 

2-He could help the big club make the playoffs by getting up to 7 or starts and then ostensibly would get a few more when we go on a Royals-type run.

 

3-He could help the big club by joining the bullpen as a lights-out setup guy and then ostensibly (I like that word) would get a few more when we go on a Royals-type run.

 

4-To be eligible for the postseason roster, he has to be promoted by Aug. 31.

 

5-Ostensibly (see point 3), a primary reason to skip points 2 and 3 is to keep the clock from starting on his arbitration/free agent clock.

 

6-Because he has nothing left to prove in the minors, he is a given to start 2016 in the rotation.

 

7-There is no No. 7, at least not yet.

 

Let me now spin out a scenario in a different direction...

1-I like the first part of No. 1, but I think he does have something to prove. Namely, that he can pitch 200-230 innings, which is where I think we see him headed in the future. He only pitched 103.2 in 2013, 140 in 2014, and is at 155.1 this year. Study or no study, going from 140 IP to 200 IP as a 21-year-old scares me.

 

2-Which is why I don't like No. 2 above. Seems like the injury risk is too great.

 

3-One could argue (and I think someone did) that he would upgrade the bullpen more than he would upgrade the rotation. At the least, in the bullpen, his innings could be managed well. He would never pitch in a game when the Twins are up or down more than three runs. One could argue that having him start a game when the Twins score six runs, for example, is a wasted start, because even the worst starter ought to keep them in the game (especially when backed up by Berrios himself if the schmuck gives up five). So, I like the idea of bringing Berrios up to the bullpen and giving him the opportunity to pitch up to 15 or so innings out of the bullpen on days when he's rested and on days when his innings have the potential to make a difference between a win and a loss. The moment they are deemed out of the playoff chase, shut him down and let him live the good life and learn the MLB process. This approach keeps him at about 170 innings, which feels much better coming on the heels of last year's 140.

 

4-Make the promotion by the 31st so that he can help us in the ostensible playoff run. Keep him in the pen in the playoffs to help manage innings, but feel free to bring him in a bit earlier if the game is getting away, etc. If he ends up getting a little past 170 innings, at least it was spread over a longer time span.

 

5-Help me if I'm understanding incorrectly. To pull a Kris Bryant, the thought is to keep him off the MLB roster until a couple weeks into season, say April 20 or whatever the magic day is, right? but can't we accomplish thing by using him for a month now and waiting to bring him up until about May 20? But, you say, that's a dumb idea because of No. 6.

 

6-But I wonder. Again, I don't think he's proven that he's ready for the jump to 200-230 innings. And if we're talking about a long playoff run in 2016, it's

probably going to include Berrios getting us there and Berrios carrying us through the early rounds, getting him to 230 innings or more. I'd love to see that happen, but I'm really skeptical about a progression of 103.6-140-170-230. But bring him up on May 20 and he can get to late October on 200 innings in healthy fashion.

 

7-But how do we get to May 20 without the mighty Berrios? Don't forget that we've got Santana, Hughes, and Nolasco under contract for 2016. One can argue that Berrios is better than at least one of them, but realistically, with the kind of money they are getting, they are going to be in the rotation if healthy. And then you've got Gibson, who's pretty much a lock. And Milone's pitched well enough to be viable, particularly at the time of year when a No. 5 starter isn't needed every time through. And I don't think we've given up on May, Meyer, and now Duffey. If Berrios wasn't in the picture, I suspect most of us would feel pretty good about the Santana-Hughes-Nolasco-Gibson-Milone-May-Meyer-Duffey octet fighting for five spots to go along with the Sano-Buxton-Dozier, et al. lineup. Let those eight guys sort themselves into the foursome that is joined by Berrios when the next opening appears after May 20. Let Berrios stay sharp by pitching about 75 pitches every five-six days in Rochester. (Besides, maybe I'll get lucky and one of those games will be in Toledo so I can see him, but I digress.)

 

7a-And if Berrios comes in and lights things up spring training, perhaps you say, "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead." But I will also say that I live in northern Indiana where all my Cub-fan friends were flipping out about Bryant getting sent down. They'll be singing a different tune in a couple winters when they've got him locked up for an extra year.

 

If you've survived this far, is there any wisdom here?

 

 

 

[John Bonnes]

Berrios should be up. There just isn't any question. If there isn't room for him in the rotation, there certainly is in the bullpen. This is just silly.

 

I wonder, if Santana stinks it up again on Sunday, if the Twins wouldn't consider pushing Berrios back one day (his next start should be Monday, I think) and having him start the Twins next game, on Tuesday, September 1st at home versus the White Sox.

 

Then, after seeing him live, they could either shut down Santana or move him to the bullpen or rest him for a few starts or even start him and shut down Berrios. 

 

Actually, I wonder if the Twins might not consider that even if Santana doesn't stink. At the very least, it could help draw some attention to this team as they're in their most significant stretch of baseball in four years. 

 

 

[John Bonnes]

Looking at the International League standings, I wonder if the Twins aren't just waiting for the Red Wings to be eliminated. 5.5 games back with 12 to play. I wonder if that also doesn't play into whether the Twins let Berrios start on 8/31 in Rochester or 9/1 in Target Field. 

 

If he starts 8/31, I wonder if everything doesn't just get moved back a week, too. He could get five days of rest and still start in Santana's next start on Saturday in Houston. I'd almost be willing to bet that happens. 

[Pius Jefferson]

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/636884642252124160

 

It certainly looks likes Berrios has the feel of someone who can help the Twins.

[T_J]

And to think just a few short weeks ago I was reading many comments about trading him away for catching help or for Tulo. Thank the heavens that we didn't do something stupid and trade him away. 

[Dantes929]

 

And to think just a few short weeks ago I was reading many comments about trading him away for catching help or for Tulo. Thank the heavens that we didn't do something stupid and trade him away. 

That's just baseball.  In just a few short weeks you might be saying you were right in wishing we had traded him.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

And to think just a few short weeks ago I was reading many comments about trading him away for catching help or for Tulo. Thank the heavens that we didn't do something stupid and trade him away.

I doubt you read many that wanted to trade him for a catcher. There just aren't great catchers available in trade right now.

 

He was mentioned in regards to Tulo, although actually most posters wanted to deal Gibson instead, as he was one of the Rockies targets named in Jeremy's rumor.

[tobi0040]

 

There just aren't great catchers available in trade right now.
 

 

While we still have Duensing, anything is possible.

Edited August 28, 2015 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

 

I doubt you read many that wanted to trade him for a catcher. There just aren't great catchers available in trade right now.
 

 

I just think there are very few great catchers; I'm sure plenty are available for the right price.  I can't think of an exciting catcher other than Buser Posey, it seems to be the only position in baseball right now where the best players are past or near 30-years-old.

 

Maybe the Cubs found something in Kyle Schwarber, if he sticks.  Sounds like that's a big if though.

[laloesch]

 

I am of the conclusion/opinion at this point of promoting him. I don't like the idea of adding him to the 40 man this soon, just so we could save another slot for someone else to be protected.

 

But again, I have come to the decision that he should come up. However, my reasoning is different than what's being discussed on here thus far. 

 

Could he help us with our playoff push? Yes. If we watch his pitch and innings count, could he possibly help us in to October should we actually get in this thing and win something? Again, yes. But at that point, I would begin to worry about too much wear and tear on his arm. There may not be direct correlation to injury and sudden jumps is usage from one season to the next, but there is a different in 30 innings and possibly 50 or so. IMHO.

 

The reason I'd like to see him up is to actually see and gain ML experience in preparation for 2016. Can we really doubt that he's going to be part of the rotation next season? And I'm not worried about service time. Barring injury or some such, he's going to be signed to some form of contract or extension before we'd have to worry about his FA year. (same as Buxton and Sano)

 

I am fully aware of contractual obligations we have to SP's on the roster. And I am not slamming the Twins for signing them. But we could realistically see Gibson, May, Berrios and Duffey as part of the 2016 rotation. When is the last time you could say the Twins had four legit young arms to flesh out the rotation? I'd like to get Berrios some time this year to get him better prepared for next year.

 

 

I don't see such a rotation happening in 2016, I just don't.  I would like to see it but it would take some trades.

[DocBauer]

I don't see such a rotation happening in 2016, I just don't.  I would like to see it but it would take some trades.

And I tend to agree. I still like Hughes a lot and expect a big rebound from him next season. Up until his current injury, and a start or so before that, he was pitching well...really, he just got hot and "corrected" any flaws later this year than he did last season.

 

I don't see the Twins ridding themselves of BOTH Nolasco and Santana this offseason. There is a real chance to move one of them at least, provided they are willing to eat some salary and don't get greedy on the return.

 

But the whole point was...unrealistic or not...you could almost pencil in FOUR young starters in the rotation...3 we drafted and 1 we acquired...from our own milb system. Wow!

[DocBauer]

But back to Berrios specifically again, doesn't the number of short starts lately, especially in the case of Pelfrey, almost demand the Twins bring Berrios up NOW?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I am not sure what the point is having Berrios start again at AAA on Aug. 31 if you should be calling him up Sep. 1. This would keep him on regular rest to start Saturday... but that's Ervin's start. And Sunday woukd be Duffey again, who is starting Tuesday. Presumably having Berrios or Duffey available in the pen Sep. 1-3 would be useful?

[Otto von Ballpark]

And Rochester is all but eliminated too. 5 GB with 8 to play.

[drjim]

I will never understand the Berrios and May* handling, self inflicted wounds that could very well cost them a playoff spot.

 

I don't get as upset about trades that didn't happen (because who knows all the details) or hesitating to call up mediocre guys (hasn't exactly burned them) or the Santana/Escobar situation (it was at least a defensible plan that failed), but this makes no sense. No reason to waste his bullets if he is coming up.

 

*And by May handling, it will always be the spot start, not necessarily moving him to the bullpen in the first place.

[howieramone2]

I will never understand the Berrios and May* handling, self inflicted wounds that could very well cost them a playoff spot.

 

I don't get as upset about trades that didn't happen (because who knows all the details) or hesitating to call up mediocre guys (hasn't exactly burned them) or the Santana/Escobar situation (it was at least a defensible plan that failed), but this makes no sense. No reason to waste his bullets if he is coming up.

 

*And by May handling, it will always be the spot start, not necessarily moving him to the bullpen in the first place.

The May spot start was a one shot deal, so it didn't concern me at all. May to the pen saved our season and is the only thing preventing talk of 90 losses for five consecutive seasons from our friends on the board.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The May spot start was a one shot deal, so it didn't concern me at all. May to the pen saved our season and is the only thing preventing talk of 90 losses for five consecutive seasons from our friends on the board.

Except saving May for that spot start and letting him recover took him out of that vital setup role for about a full week, contributing to several losses during that time.

[darin617]

Only call him up this year if you plan on having him making the rotation out of spring training. Of course that is not that easy, will he be allowed to play winter ball and what if he has a poor spring training.

1.Santana

2. Hughes

3. Gibson

4.Nolasco/Milone depending on which you don't trade

5. Berrios

6. Duffy?

 

Which I have to say I really want Trevor May in the 4th slot but I feel teams are going to copy KC with their bullpen success and leave him as a set up man. One problem is that you have to get through the first 6 or 7 innings with a lead.

[drjim]

 

Only call him up this year if you plan on having him making the rotation out of spring training. Of course that is not that easy, will he be allowed to play winter ball and what if he has a poor spring training.

1.Santana

2. Hughes

3. Gibson

4.Nolasco/Milone depending on which you don't trade

5. Berrios

6. Duffy?

 

Which I have to say I really want Trevor May in the 4th slot but I feel teams are going to copy KC with their bullpen success and leave him as a set up man. One problem is that you have to get through the first 6 or 7 innings with a lead.

 

I might look at it the other way. They call him up now, give him a taste of the bigs in a bullpen role and then likely start him in the minors as the sixth starter. This would still manage his innings/stress a little and render any service time issues moot.

 

It is very, very difficult to break into the majors as a starter on opening day and expect to make it through the season. No matter what happens in September Berrios should be eased into the rotation at the start of next season.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Berrios currently through 6 IP: 4H 1 ER (solo HR) 5/0 K/BB

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'd like to hear one of the Twins Daily writers give one good reason why Berrios pitched 6 innings and 91 pitches tonight.

 

EDIT: you could argue the Twins are genuinely not concerned with an innings limit, given how young and strong he is. But gee whiz, leave a little in the tank for him

 

Maybe they'll use him in the bullpen? This team just gets me sometimes.

Edited September 1, 2015 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Otto von Ballpark]

Red Wings playoff chase? They held their deficit at 5 games, still with 7 to play!