Article: Berrios Dominates Again... Call Him Up!

[Seth Stohs]

Not long after JO Berrios put together, arguably, his best start of season, he sat in the Red Wings bus just starting the 90-mile drive from Syracuse to Rochester. Instead of sitting back and relaxing, he took the time to take (and welcome) a phone call from a Twins Daily writer.

 

As Jeremy opined in today’s Minor League Report, “He’s arguably the best pitcher in the entire organization right now.”

 

But will he get called up for September? The answer to that question likely has changed in the mind of Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan and others in the Twins front office over the last two or three weeks. I know it has changed for me now.Berrios felt really good about his Wednesday night start. A season-high 12 strikeouts in seven shutout innings will make a pitcher feel pretty good. Of the start, Berrios said, “Tonight, all three pitches were really nice. The best one was the curveball. I used it to strike them out.”

 

Having watched several of Berrios’s starts, it appears that he’s had all three of his pitches working well most times out. He says that it is important and has been a focus for him. “You need to use all three pitches to get out big league hitters. The more I throw them, the more confident I am with all three pitches.”

 

Berrios is quick to credit others for his success. The first thing he said was “All Glory to God!”

 

He also says that he has received great advice from his coaches in Rochester too. “Yeah, here they want me to work with the curveball, and that’s what I’ve done. I’ve worked with that. I’ve thrown it pretty good.”

 

It is interesting that Terry Ryan is watching the Red Wings. Asked if he notices Terry Ryan or thinks about the fact that the Twins GM is in the stands watching, Berrios answered quickly. “I don’t think about him. I just do my work and try to get outs and pitch my game.”

 

However, we all know that Berrios works really hard. It was his goal before the season to make the big league club on Opening Day. He began at AA and dominated there.

 

He wanted to be in the big leagues before he turned 21 in early May. Instead, he started another Futures Game for the World Team. He moved up to AAA where after his first two starts, he has continued to dominate.

 

So, what would it mean for him to get that call in September? “It’s my dream from when I was young. It would be a blessing if they called me up in September. If they give me the opportunity to move up, I would try my best to help the team get to the playoffs.”

 

There is no question that he and his teammates are keeping close tabs on the Twins big league club and their strong success this season.

 

Asked if seeing Tyler Duffey’s success gives him confidence that he can succeed in the big leagues, Berrios replied quickly. “Yeah! They’ve got a lot of talent, a lot of very good pitchers. They have played very well.”

 

It is the youth that has been leading the way for the Twins. Miguel Sano has been crushing pitches since his call up on July 1. Byron Buxton returned to the Twins last week after his injury and has multiple hits in four of his last five games. Puerto Rican outfielder Eddie Rosario has been up since early May and proven that he can play in the big leagues. He has a lot of extra-base hits, and he’s played great defense, showing range and a strong, accurate arm. Duffey has been good in his last three starts.

 

Is He Ready?

 

There are many angles to the Twins decision to bring up JO Berrios or not. As I wrote earlier, the opinions on that have likely changed in the mind of Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan over the last few weeks. I know that it has changed a few times in the last few weeks.

 

First and foremost, JO Berrios is the top pitching prospect in the organization. He has done everything that he possibly can at each minor league level to have earned the right to pitch in the big leagues. In 15 starts at AA Chattanooga, he went 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA. In 90.2 innings, he walked 24 and struck out 92. After last night’s game, he is now 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA in ten starts with the Red Wings. In 64.2 innings, he has walked 13 and struck out 73. He has nothing more to prove.

 

That is a lot of success. That is also a lot of innings. Combined, he is 12-5 with a 2.95 ERA. In a career-high 155.1 innings, he has given up 129 hits, walked 37 and struck out 165 batters. His previous career-high innings was 140.1 innings in 2014.

 

Many teams subscribe to being concerned about a pitcher working more than a 20% innings increase from year to year. The Twins rarely mention the 20% number though they are aware of it. They monitor it, but they also tend to make those decisions based on how a pitcher is performing on the mound. Beyond numbers, is the pitcher starting to labor more on the mound. Well, based on last night’s performance, Berrios doesn’t appear to be laboring.

 

If he were called up to the big leagues and put into the starting rotation, he could make seven more starts in high-pressure situations. Let’s estimate that he averaged six innings per start and he could wind up just shy of 200 innings. Of course, the Twins could also bring him up and put him in the bullpen down the stretch, maybe getting him 15 to 20 more innings.

 

For what it’s worth, the Twins have not given Berrios any indication that he is on any innings limit at this time.

 

The Business Impact

 

As of Thursday morning, the Twins hold the second American League wild card spot. All season, Twins fans have tried to enjoy the ride, always wondering when they might falter. There have been a couple of times, including one week ago after the series in New York, when it was fair to wonder aloud if that time had come. This team has shown great resiliency. They have played themselves back into contention. They have added two quality bullpen options, helping the area of the team that needed it most. The idea that arguably the best pitcher in the organization would not be part of a playoff quest seems wrong.

 

To a fault, I admit that I tend to look at the business side of promotions too much. If the Twins were not contending, I would fully understand and agree with the idea that if they didn’t bring him up this year, it made sense.

 

Like Buxton, Berrios was a first-round pick in 2012 out of high school. That means that he doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2016 season. My general belief is that if they are not promoted by early August, it makes little sense for them to call them up and take up a 40-man roster spot. Let him rest and come to spring training as a non-roster invitee in 2016 and come up in late April, gaining another season of his rights before he would hit free agency. It would also allow them to protect another player over the offseason.

 

That’s just smart. However, the Twins ARE in contention. They do have a real chance to make the playoffs. In my opinion, that means finding a way to get Berrios on the roster.

 

At that point, some of those intangibles have to come in to play. Can the player handle pitching in these types of pressure situations in a playoff push? How will he handle success or failure? How mature is he? How will he perform while pitching in innings that he has never pitched before? How will he handle the big league lifestyle?

 

Simply put, there is no way to know with 100% certainty. But they do know JO Berrios. They knew him and watched him before they drafted him in June of 2012. They’ve been able to get to know him better in the past three years. He only turned 21-years-old three months ago, but he is very mature. He is confident yet humble. He clearly has the right work ethic. Beyond that, we don’t know how he will handle it. No one does.

 

Tyler Duffey was pitching best for the Red Wings when he was called up. He was drafted the same year as Berrios, but he is three years older because he went to college. He is mature. He was ready for the big leagues. And, he was clearly nervous when he made his debut. It’s fair to say he’s calmed down well over his last three starts.

 

Summary

 

JO Berrios was great again on Wednesday night for the Red Wings. We talked to him after the game for his thoughts and what a September call up would mean to him. Will he get that call? We’ll find out within the next two weeks. On the mound, he has nothing left to prove, though it is very fair to worry about his innings. He has the makeup and maturity to handle the situation, as well as the confidence and, maybe more important, the pitches.

 

There are “business” reasons for the Twins to wait until about April 20, 2016, to call him up, but the fact that the Twins are in strong playoff contention in 2015 and the opinion that he may be the best pitcher in the organization right now, it seems pretty apparent (in my humble opinion) that JO Berrios should spend most of September with the Minnesota Twins.

 

Click here to view the article

[h2oface]

Great article! Get him up before September 1. Time to get on with it. Santana is not eligible for the playoffs. Berrios has to be.

[Tommygun921]

I've been following Jose closely over the past 3 seasons and can say I don't think I've ever seen another more focused, confident, driven, or mature person working towards their dream. Whatever that dream may be. I believe he can handle the added workload based off of how hard he works and I believe that by the Twins promoting him it would set a good example for other prospects within the organization of what hard work and determination can get you. Good luck the rest of the way Mr Berrios

[Blackjack]

I don't think we'll see Berrios unless there is an injury to some other starting pitcher in the next couple of weeks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Last night's start told me the last things I needed to know about Berrios. Up until now, I was mostly indifferent whether he should get the call. I saw some potential positives but didn't feel it was a pressing issue to call him up right now, especially if he's winding down for the season.

 

Simply put, the kid is amazing.

 

Berrios has pitched more innings this season than any other season of his career. He's 21 years old. He should be getting tired. Instead, he goes out and throws 14.0 innings of one run ball with an absurd 22 strikeouts over two starts.

 

Terry Ryan is in the stands. Jose should feel stress about impressing the Big Boss. Instead, he goes out and pitches his best game of the season.

 

I put Berrios on my untouchable list last season because he seems like the type of kid who succeeds through sheer force of will (on top of immense talent). I'm not sure that kind of mentality can be quantified, particularly in a pitcher. The kid seems unflappable.

 

Call him up.

[tobi0040]

Someone needs to move to the pen or get hurt.  I would really like to see this kid. I think he could help us.

[nicksaviking]

 

I've been following Jose closely over the past 3 seasons and can say I don't think I've ever seen another more focused, confident, driven, or mature person working towards their dream. Whatever that dream may be. I believe he can handle the added workload based off of how hard he works and I believe that by the Twins promoting him it would set a good example for other prospects within the organization of what hard work and determination can get you. Good luck the rest of the way Mr Berrios

 

Nice first post and welcome to Twins Daily.

[HitInAPinch]

Why are people finding it interesting that Ryan is in town to watch his top-level minor league players at work?  Isn't there a big roster expansion coming up in a few days?  The best I can say about it is this:

Berrios performed extremely well with the boss in the stands.  

 

My understanding is Berrios is facing an innings pitched limit and they may want to keep him in Rochester for a potential playoff run.  Either way, I wouldn't want to see him pushed too hard and ruin that potential.

After what he has done, he deserves at least a perfunctory courtesy callup. 

[nicksaviking]

Can't imagine Ryan was in the stands simply because he was in the area.  The team is clearly considering calling him up and if they were on the fence about it and last night was an audition, one would have to think he passed.

 

Who gets replaced then, Santana or Gibson? Santana has no post season value, but Gibson has looked like he's wearing down.  I don't think I like the six man rotation as Milone is a low effort lefty who shouldn't need more rest and the extra day has always seemed to be a problem with sinkerballers and Pelfrey has suddenly refound his form.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Why are people finding it interesting that Ryan is in town to watch his top-level minor league players at work?  Isn't there a big roster expansion coming up in a few days? 

 

Good point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My understanding is Berrios is facing an innings pitched limit and they may want to keep him in Rochester for a potential playoff run.

The Red Wings are not going to make the playoffs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/636884642252124160

[Shane Wahl]

Berrios seems like a quieter version of Sano--confident, intelligent, mature, and dedicated.

 

I said awhile ago that it might be worth lightning in a bottle kind of risk for the playoffs to start Berrios. I don't think the current starters are playoff material. You know how this goes. The Twins could never put a rotation together even in the Johan days that was built for success in the playoffs. Berrios is exactly that type. Josh Beckett 2003 . . . etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I said awhile ago that it might be worth lightning in a bottle kind of risk for the playoffs to start Berrios.

 

While I'm all in favor of letting Berrios pitch, I think asking him to start games deep into October is a bit much.

[Vanimal46]

Is He Ready?

 

Yep. He's been ready for a couple of months now IMO. He's done nothing but dominate at every level. Not sure what else is left to check off the list for him in AAA....

[nicksaviking]

 

q56dv.jpg

 

While I'm all in favor of letting Berrios pitch, I think asking him to start games deep into October is a bit much.

 

In theory I agree, as six to seven starts don't seem like a lot, but I think if he did get those starts and he was pitching well we might feel different in a months time.

 

Hypothetically, if he came up and his six starts looked like Noah Syndergaard, Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey's first six starts, most of us would probably be asking for him to be pitching the important games.  I'd have to think that if Tyler Duffy pitches like he has his past couple starts, he'd also get consideration after only 10-11 starts.

 

Of course this would have just as much to do with the blase nature of the rest of the staff.  There wouldn't be any kind of discussion if there was a clear leader in the rotation.

[Old Twins Cap]

Would not hurt, at all, to have Berrios in the pen, and when a Santana or Milone gets knocked around early or it's the 6th inning and the Twins are short on relief, give him a shot and see if he can hold his own.  This last month is all about getting good pitching when you absolutely need it.  He's a very good choice, and if it is short innings every fourth day, they can keep the arm strain to a minimum.

[Monkeypaws]

Looking at that video, Berrios reminds me of Kitty Kaat the way he stands out there before going into his windup. He looks like a strong young man.

[spinowner]

Does he have the stuff to pitch in the majors? Sure looks like it. Does he have the mental makeup to pitch in the majors? Sure sounds like it. Is bringing him to the majors now the best thing for his career? Ah, now THAT is the important question.

It sure is tempting to put him on the major league roster but here are some reasons not to do it now.

1. He's pitched more innings this year than in any previous season, and more and more baseball people feel that too much throwing early in one's career is linked to the marked increase in TJ surgeries needed in this day and age.

2. He's always started, and the Twins have already had to put one starter in their bullpen. Asking Berrios to become a different pitcher may not be wise given his age and number of innings already pitched this year. Even though it would mean fewer innings something like that could throw a young pitcher out of whack.

3. He's not on the 40-man. This is not the best juncture to remove someone from the 40-man to make room for him. There are several players I'd DFA when the season is over but not now.

I'm not saying he should be called up and I'm not saying he should not. But I think caution with this important player is prudent at this stage of his career.

[mikelink45]

In the playoffs domination counts and we do not have a dominating pitcher.  Remember when Washington decided to rest Strasburg because, of course, they would be back every year!   Get our best pitcher up and let him get some meaningful outs. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/636884642252124160

I approve. IIRC the Nationals used the "hard innings" method on Strasburg the year he came back from TJ, instead of the look feel method, and their postseason ended in disappointment with their best pitcher watching from the bench (TJ is a little bit different beast, I admit). 

 

There's no hard inning limit, but you don't want to blow past that 20-30% bench mark with complete disregard, either. 

 

I assume the Twins would manage Berrios's innings so that he can pitch as late into the season as is needed. This is tricky, but in a good way!

[BK432]

 

I approve. IIRC the Nationals used the "hard innings" method on Strasburg the year he came back from TJ, instead of the look feel method, and their postseason ended in disappointment with their best pitcher watching from the bench (TJ is a little bit different beast, I admit). 

 

There's no hard inning limit, but you don't want to blow past that 20-30% bench mark with complete disregard, either. 

 

I assume the Twins would manage Berrios's innings so that he can pitch as late into the season as is needed. This is tricky, but in a good way!

 

Yep - manage those Sept innings. Let him work out of the 'pen a bit. Give him a start or two at the end of Sept. And if you believe in miracles, maybe he's in our October rotation.

 

Caveat - he doesn't *have* to be on the 25-man before Sept 1. Don't forget the injury replacement rules, which would allow them to kick this down the road for at least a couple more weeks should they choose. Next 4 games will dictate a lot I think.

[Mike Sixel]

According to actual studies, limits on increasing innings don't have any correlation to injury. It's junk science.

 

Call him up. Between Molitor and Ryan, they can figure out a role for them all. The goal is to have the best people here, giving them the best shot to make the playoffs.

[Vance_Christianson]

 

Who gets replaced then, Santana or Gibson? Santana has no post season value, but Gibson has looked like he's wearing down.  I don't think I like the six man rotation as Milone is a low effort lefty who shouldn't need more rest and the extra day has always seemed to be a problem with sinkerballers and Pelfrey has suddenly refound his form.

I was telling a buddy of mine a month ago that Gibson seems like he hit a wall, and his stats are showing that as well. Gibby went from being so consistent, a guy we could very much count on for a quality start, to now he's throwing a quality start 50% of the time. Lets give Gibby 2 starts off and let him rest. Insert our boy JO!

[spinowner]

 

...it seems pretty apparent (in my humble opinion) that JO Berrios should spend most of September with the Minnesota Twins.

Click here to view the article

Seth, just out of curiosity, in your humble opinion whom should the team remove from the 40-man roster to make room for Berrios?

[nicksaviking]

 

According to actual studies, limits on increasing innings don't have any correlation to injury. It's junk science.

 

Call him up. Between Molitor and Ryan, they can figure out a role for them all. The goal is to have the best people here, giving them the best shot to make the playoffs.

 

I'd like to see those studies if you can find them.

 

I think it's also kind of strange we measure workload by innings for youngsters when we measure workload by pitches during a game.  No doubt that the average number of pitches Alex Meyer throws in an inning is going to be higher than Berrios.

[Boom Boom]

He's not ready.

 

Maybe a few weeks into the 2016 season. But right now, he's not ready.

[jimmer]

 

"Conventional wisdom among coaches and managers is that restricting innings for young starting pitchers, and slowly increasing the number of innings pitched over several years, gives pitchers' tissues sufficient time to adapt to the workload of a major league season," said Thomas Karakolis, lead investigator on the study. "But all our data shows that these strategies really make no difference in preventing injury."

 

'"Injury is the result of workload exceeding the capacity of the body's tissues, so while counting innings is a tempting way to measure workload, it's actually a very flawed method," said Karakolis. "If coaches are looking for ways to prevent injury, simply limiting the number of innings is not the answer. They have to look at how hard a pitcher's body is working during each inning, each pitch."

 

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150406121354.htm

 

 

Edited August 27, 2015 by jimmer

[Vanimal46]

 

Seth, just out of curiosity, in your humble opinion whom should the team remove from the 40-man roster to make room for Berrios?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but i think there's an open spot already when the Twins DFA'd Fryer...

[Vanimal46]

 

He's not ready.

Maybe a few weeks into the 2016 season. But right now, he's not ready.

 

Care to elaborate further on your stance that Berrios isn't ready?