Article: Twins Schedule Works Against Them (But Not Much)

[John Bonnes]

Five American League wild card contenders were separated by 2.5 games as of Tuesday afternoon. If you’re following the race between them, you’re undoubtedly heartened to see one of the Twins opponents facing the Blue Jays or Royals and equally miffed when they face Oakland or Seattle. The teams these contenders play are going to have some say about whom goes to the playoffs.

 

But looking at the remaining schedules, it’s hard to say exactly which team has a clear advantage. The schedules are division-heavy, but all the teams face both the best and worst teams in their division. Let’s see if we can sort through them and determine if the Twins' remaining schedule works for or against their wild card hopes.First, let’s look at the raw numbers. Here are the five teams' remaining games. The opponents on the left are in order by worse record to best.

 

Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 1.jpg

 

The green teams are teams that are more than a couple of games below .500. The yellow teams are within a few games of .500. The red teams are more than a little above .500. There’s a lot of data there, but one thing that jumps out at me: the Twins have the fewest games against the other wild card contending teams. They only have six games (five after Tuesday night), while the other teams all have at least nine.

 

But now I want to go back to those pretty colors. If you add up the games in those categories, the story becomes a little clearer:

 

 

Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 2.jpg

 

From this look, at least, the teams in the AL East have a pretty tough road. Baltimore has 18 games versus Toronto, New York and Kansas City, and the Rays face the same teams just three fewer times.

 

The Twins face a dichotomy. One the one hand, they have a few more tough games than the Rangers or Angels. On the other hand, they have the most of any contender versus the “below .500” category. So it that a good schedule or a bad schedule?

 

To figure that out, we’ll try to get a bit more precise. By looking at each opponent’s winning percentage, we can determine how a completely average team would fare against that schedule. When we do that, the Twins schedule becomes a bit uglier:

 

 

Download attachment: Schedule Analysis 3.jpg

 

Basically, the Twins record is about one loss tougher than average, while Texas record is about a half game easier than average. The Twins, despite having the most games against the “green” teams, have the second hardest schedule ahead of them.

 

That’s because the teams the Twins face are at the top end of those categories I set up. The Royals, whom the Twins face more than any other team, should essentially be dark red. And the three green teams the Twins face – Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago – are the three toughest green teams in that category.

 

The truth is that our initial confusion was probably justified – the remaining schedules for each team are close enough in overall competition to make a clear difference between them uncertain. One game or one-and-a-half games difference isn’t particularly significant in the randomness that is a pennant race. For instance, running into one of these team’s bottom half of the rotation versus their top half of the rotation can be a much larger difference than that one game spread.

 

But the Twins schedule, seemingly, isn’t doing them any favors. As Twins fans watch their team's and their opponents' matchups on a daily basis, they’re more likely to be frustrated than pleased.

 

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[DaveW]

By my count the Twins are 10 games over .500 vs teams not named the Yankees or Brewers. They play zero games down the stretch against those teams, by my fuzzy math they should be fine

[adjacent]

The Astros series are going to be tough. But all the games against Kansas City are well into September. By that time they will be already into the playoffs, and resting the regulars a lot.

[Thegrin]

This is baseball. When you are hot...you are hot.  The strength of the opposition can mean little... or not.    

[ThejacKmp]

 

This is baseball. When you are hot...you are hot.  The strength of the opposition can mean little... or not.    

 

Agreed, all about avoiding those losing spells and catching teams when they're on a losing streak.  Gonna be huge if the Twins can at least split games with Houston.

[Jerr]

 

This is baseball. When you are hot...you are hot.  The strength of the opposition can mean little... or not.    

Stats smats, KEEP WINNING TWINS       

[tobi0040]

I looked at the Wild Card standings and noticed some really bizarre run differentials (relative to wins and losses).  I bolded a few of them.

 

Yankees   69-57   +50
Twins        65-61     -8
Rangers   64-61     -32
Angels     64-62        -6
O’s           63-63      +51
Rays        62-64       -20
Tigers     60-66     -48
Indians   60-66   -16
WS          59-66   -58
M’s         59-68    -91
Red Sox 58-69    -41
A’s          55-73     +10

Edited August 27, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Astros series are going to be tough. But all the games against Kansas City are well into September. By that time they will be already into the playoffs, and resting the regulars a lot.

The Astros are good but not without flaws. Still, a tough matchup.

 

The first Royals series is troublesome. It's early enough in September where the Twins will be facing a Royals team focused on maintaining the best record in the American League.

 

The second series, maybe not so much. There's a better than 50/50 chance the Royals will phone in that series.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

I looked at the Wild Card standings and noticed some really bizarre run differentials (relative to wins and losses).  I bolded a few of them.

 

Yankees   69-57   +50
Twins        65-61     -8
Rangers   64-61     -32
Angels     64-62        -6
O’s           63-63      +51
Rays        62-64       -20
Tigers     60-66     -48
Indians   60-66   -16
WS          59-66   -58
M’s         59-68    -91
Red Sox 58-69    -41
A’s          55-73     +10

 

Wow - sweeping Baltimore on the road is even more impressive looking at that run differential. Also, how in the world are the Rangers 3 games above .500???

[brvama]

I think the key here may be head to head match ups of the WG contending teams. In that aspect I'd have to say the Twins have the advantage. TX and LAA have 7 games with each other, (I consider those two the most competition for the WG) and each game impacts their position greater in the race. The Twins play the Angels 4 times. They need to split or better that series and do their business elsewhere, and hope the others beat each other up in a bloody draw.

[Willihammer]

Astros are lined up Kazmir-Fiers-McCullers. Twins oppose with Gibson-Pelfrey-Santana.

 

At least the Twins avoid Keuchel.

Edited August 27, 2015 by Willihammer

[tobi0040]

 

Astros are lined up Kazmir-Fiers-McCullers. Twins oppose with Gibson-Pelfrey-Santana.

 

At least the Twins avoid Keuchel.

 

Terry just called me and asked my opinion.  The Twins starters have been adjusted based on my feedback.

 

Gibson-May-Berrios.

[Willihammer]

 

Terry just called me and asked my opinion.  The Twins starters have been adjusted based on my feedback.

 

Gibson-May-Berrios.

In fairness, outside of the Fiers no-hitter, the Astros pitchers have been struggling lately too. McCullers had a 0.1 IP, 6 run start last week for example.

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

By my count the Twins are 10 games over .500 vs teams not named the Yankees or Brewers. They play zero games down the stretch against those teams, by my fuzzy math they should be fine

I find this less reassuring, given that if the Twins do squeak into the Wild Card game, the Yankees are their likely opponent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In fairness, outside of the Fiers no-hitter, the Astros pitchers have been struggling lately too. McCullers had a 0.1 IP, 6 run start last week for example.

Actually that start was over 3 weeks ago, and was followed by a minor league demotion for rest (and a nice return to MLB earlier this week).  Outside of that one start, McCullers has been damn good pretty much every other game this season.

 

The Astros are on a run of 9 straight games allowing 2 runs or fewer, I can't imagine their pitchers have been struggling too much lately.

 

Actually, a closer look shows their SP have allowed more than 3 runs only once in their last 19 games, dating almost back to that poor McCullers start August 3rd.

Edited August 27, 2015 by spycake