Article: Twins Minor League Report (8/26): Jose, We Can See.

[ThejacKmp]

 

This is an argument for aggressively pursuing an extension with a player before they are a mere year away from arbitration, like Dozier was this past winter.

 

We will still have plenty of time to do that with Berrios regardless of when we call him up, unless you think he will immediately pitch like prime Pedro Martinez his first year in MLB (which even Pedro didn't do until his 5th year in MLB).

 

Yeah but "plenty of time" is vague; the specifics matter.  Having an extra year gets us a better deal and if he does pitch like Pedro and we can't afford him (ala Santana) it gives the Twins an extra year of him playing before he leaves as a free agent or, more likely, is traded like Santana or David Price.  The year of control on the back end is worth so much more than 15-20 innings in the bullpen in pursuit of a wild card.  He doesn't push the needle enough in that role to justify risking losing a year of his prime. 

 

Now if there is a way to get him into the rotation, I'm all for bringing him up and seeing what he can do.  But I don't see the Twins dropping two of Duffy, Milone, Santana, Gibson, Hughes and Pelfrey.  There's just too much of a log jam ahead of him among the starters.

 

Edited August 27, 2015 by ThejacKmp

[jimbo92107]

I'd call up Berrios right now. First, he's reportedly a workout warrior with no signs of arm fatigue. Second, he could be part of a surprise Twins run in the playoffs this year.

 

As fans, we follow baseball for the vicarious adventure of it. This is a chance to see JO Berrios have an early career adventure, to be part of a world-shocking, unexpected run by a newly emerging Minnesota Twins. I would love to see Berrios pitching, supported by Rosario, Buxton, Hicks, Kepler, Vargas, etc. Would that not be glorious? Would you not be entertained??

 

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! Drummer, water skiing speed!

Edited August 27, 2015 by jimbo92107

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The service time thing is only part of it. Outside of injuries in the rotation that let him start, he just isn't going to have enough of an impact on this year's race to justify accruing the service time.

By my calculations, it's 15 days service time or so to give him a couple MLB looks.  That's not much of a cost.  Easily regained next April if they want, especially since shutting him down at 15 days suggests he wasn't ready or was wearing down.

 

And if he looks to be an asset in our 2015 pennant race, it's 34 days service time, max.  Also not prohibitively difficult to recapture in 2016, if the extra year of control is really as important as you say it is.

 

That's ultimately what I don't get about your argument -- this extra year of control is SO important, to not even try seeing if he could help us in a pennant race... but not important enough that they couldn't justify an extra 2-5 weeks in the minors in 2016?

[ThejacKmp]

 

That's ultimately what I don't get about your argument -- this extra year of control is SO important, to not even try seeing if he could help us in a pennant race... but not important enough that they couldn't justify an extra 2-5 weeks in the minors in 2016?

 

On that front, I think you're selling out next year in order to accomplish not much this year.  If he does great and gets 34 games in this year, you have to leave him in the minors that much longer next year - which becomes more difficult to sell to fans and teammates.  As is, he can have a great spring and be up by the end of April - basically you just need someone to do a few turns in the rotation and then he steps in.  But if he plays this year and does well, the tempatation/expectation is going to be to have him on the roster opening day.  And then you've blow your year.

All of that would be moot if they were replacing Pelfrey with him - that would be worth the chance you end up burning a year of time.  But some low leverage bullpen work (he's not stepping in to be the closer or even one of the top set up guys, he's going to be a middle innings guy barring injury) isn't worth it. 

 

I guess the equivalent would be this: let's pretend last years Cubs made a run at the playoffs.  They were brought Kris Bryant up for the run and he hit well. The next year, would they have been able to stick him in the minors for not just the 17 days they did this year but for 51 days?  They would've been crucified in the press and booed by fans - it never could happen.  They'd have wasted a year of team control.  And that scenario is actually decent for the Cubs - Bryant plays a pivotal role as a starter.  Berrios wouldn't be starting or even closing games - he'd just be another bullpen arm.  Its akin to bringing Bryant up to pinch run down the stretch.

 

Look I'd love to see the young man play but the smart thing to do is to play the risk reward game well and save that year.  Berrios isn't going to make the difference as a pen arm.   He might as a starter next year or at the end of team control.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On that front, I think you're selling out next year in order to accomplish not much this year.  If he does great and gets 34 games in this year, you have to leave him in the minors that much longer next year - which becomes more difficult to sell to fans and teammates.  As is, he can have a great spring and be up by the end of April - basically you just need someone to do a few turns in the rotation and then he steps in.  But if he plays this year and does well, the tempatation/expectation is going to be to have him on the roster opening day.  And then you've blow your year.

Remember, 34 days is the max, if they call him up Sep. 1 and let him finish the season (meaning, he's good and useful).  If they let him finish in Rochester first, it may only be 27 days.  If they give him a couple MLB appearances and decide he's fatiguing and option him to shut him down, it could be as little as 6 days or whatever.

 

And if you are absolutely committed to getting that extra year of control, you have to keep him in the minors for ~12 days regardless in 2016.  You can't risk that being ~18 days to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle this September?  I think your risk-reward calibration is off.

 

Look I'd love to see the young man play but the smart thing to do is to play the risk reward game well and save that year.  Berrios isn't going to make the difference as a pen arm.

Royals fans are sure glad you weren't counseling their team on Brandon Finnegan last year.  And Rays fans about David Price in 2008.  Two young pitchers who made quite a difference as just "a pen arm" in September and October (one in the wild card game, no less).

 

If that's the "risk reward game" surely there are some examples of MLB teams holding back pitchers similar to Berrios in health, talent, and experience for service time reasons in a pennant race?  I can think of a ton of hitters getting the service time treatment (not generally in pennant races, though) but not any pitchers with Berrios's profile.

 

I think you are over-thinking this extra year of control and exaggerating its importance.  TR certainly hasn't shown much care for service time with even more elite prospects than Berrios (Mauer and Liriano).  Buxton was only called up due to Hicks' injury (twice), and Sano wasn't called up until almost a month past the Super-2 threshold had passed.

 

Given that, there's probably a decent chance that Berrios could make the team next spring anyway -- I don't think the Twins care all that much about service time.  If he makes the team to begin April 2016, wouldn't you feel silly for not having a "free" tryout for him in September 2015?

Edited August 28, 2015 by spycake

[TRex]

 

Royals fans are sure glad you weren't counseling their team on Brandon Finnegan last year.  And Rays fans about David Price in 2008.  Two young pitchers who made quite a difference as just "a pen arm" in September and October (one in the wild card game, no less).

 

 

I really appreciate how much work you put into your posts, and the background research you do before you post.

 

In thinking about Finnegan, I was wondering if he is an example of what you hope Berrios will bring to the Twins pennant drive (especially if you would plan on shutting him down for the playoffs)? In scouting the box scores, it doesn't look like Finnegan had much of an impact on the KC stretch run at all (nor does it look like he was given many opportunities):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=finnebr01&t=p&year=2014

He appeared in 7 games, accumulating 7 innings. He didn't appear in back-to-back games, and had only one hold in the two opportunities he was given (got a BS/L on the other). 

 

Don't get me wrong, I think he did well, but he doesn't appear to have been a difference maker. I think Finnegan would be an excellent example for 'let's get Berrios up so he can get some experience', but not as good for demonstrating that 'young pitchers can make quite a difference'.

 

And, just on principle, I don't think it is fair to compare our 6-foot nothing 21 year old with David Price, a 23 year old, Howser-winning, first overall draft pick who signed an MLB contract (i.e. he was already in his second year on the 40-man roster)!

Edited August 28, 2015 by TRex

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I too noticed that Finnegan didn't have an extended impact, back when I was researching Tyler Jay and the fast-track suggestions.  Finnegan was on a team with a much better bullpen -- they didn't really need him in September.  The regular season was primarily about acclimation and evaluation for him.

 

But in the wild card game (which is 100% in any playoff path of the Twins, unlike the Royals last year who had a shot at the division), Finnegan was a critical piece when the game went to extra innings, allowing them the freedom to use their best bullpen options early in a do-or-die game.

 

Given our staff, Berrios could potentially help us in that way earlier than the wild card game (although since our path to the postseason is 100% thru the wild card game, it wouldn't hurt to have him available then too).  And Berrios could contribute either in the pen or in a start (which Finnegan was not prepared to do).  If he's effective, I also wouldn't necessarily shut him down for the playoffs -- pacing him needs to be part of the plan.

 

I wasn't necessarily comparing Berrios to Price either as pitchers or in pedigree, but he is another example of a September/October difference making rookie out of the pen.  You don't have to be a #1 overall pick or super-elite prospect to be a difference-maker down the stretch -- you just have to be a really good pitcher.  Berrios is by far our best shot at adding such a pitcher to an otherwise shaky staff at this critical juncture.  He doesn't even need to make a Price 2008 level difference to have more than a marginal impact of the 2015 Twins season.