Article: Twins Minor League Report (8/26): Jose, We Can See.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins best pitching prospect pitched his best game at the highest minor league level with the General Manager in attendance. But was it good enough to earn a call to the big leagues?

 

The Twins are in hot pursuit of a wild card spot and played another good game Wednesday night in Tampa Bay… in front of the GCL affiliate.

 

It’s that time of the year where the organization is coming around full circle. What else happened on Wednesday? Well, Ethan Mildren was promoted to Fort Myers and Sam Clay was promoted to Cedar Rapids.

 

But what about those games…?RED WINGS REPORT

Rochester 6, Syracuse 0

Box Score

 

The story - as it is every time he walks up the hill - is The Machine, Jose Berrios.

 

On Wednesday, Berrios completed seven shutout innings on 98 pitches (65 strikes), striking out a season-high 12 batters (one off of his career-high, done last June as a member of the Miracle) and walking only one. He allowed three hits - consecutive hits to lead off the second inning - but escaped a no-out, runners-on-second-and-third jam with no damage, as seen in this video:

 

 

What else is there to say really? He’s arguably the best pitcher in the entire organization right now. He could help the Twins chase a playoff berth. The issue, ultimately, is the innings. Berrios has thrown over 155 innings this season after setting a career-high (140) last year. Without knowing how many innings the Twins will allow him to throw, you have to weigh that versus giving up a full year of service on the back end of his original contract. (My opinion: If the Twins are still within a game or two in ten days, Berrios will make his Twins debut - possibly in the bullpen - on September 5.)

 

Danny Santana and James Beresford (who deserves to come up in September as well) both led the offense with three-hit games. Kennys Vargas (who hit his 9th home run) and Josmil Pinto each drove in two runs. Oswaldo Arcia, batting 8th, hit his 12th home run.

 

Rochester improved to 68-64, but is on the brink of elimination.

 

CHATTANOOGA CHATTER

Chattanooga 4, Tennessee 8

Box Score

 

The Lookouts fell to 26-31 in the second half. (But still qualify for the Southern League playoffs due to being first-half champions.)

 

Jorge Polanco and Heiker Meneses each had two hits. Adam Walker, who leads all of AA in home runs and RBIs, hit his 29th bomb and is the first player in the minor leagues this season to drive in 100 runs. Travis Harrison hit his fifth of the season. Max Kepler, who entered the day leading AA in batting average (.337), went 0-3 and is now hitless in his last three games. (WHAT?!) He’s now batting .334.

 

Aaron Slegers struggled, allowing six hits, four walks and two home runs - totaling six runs - in four innings. Nick Burdi struck out three in two scoreless innings. D.J. Johnson allowed a run in two innings and Brandon Peterson allowed a run in the ninth inning.

 

MIRACLE MATTERS

Ft. Myers - OFF DAY

 

KERNELS NUGGETS

Cedar Rapids 5, Peoria 7

Box Score

 

The Kernels jumped to an early lead, but couldn’t hold on and dropped to 72-56.

 

The offense accounted for 10 hits, paced by three hits from Edgar Corcino, who doubled and drove in a run. Five different Kernels doubled: Corcino, Rafael Valera, T.J. White, Max Murphy and Austin Diemer. Alex Real hit his 3rd triple.

 

Sam Clay started after being promoted. He struck out two in five innings. He gave up six runs (three earned) on nine hits and a walk. Jared Wilson allowed a run in two innings of work and Michael Theofanopoulos allowed three hits in two scoreless innings of work.

 

E-TOWN E-NOTES

Elizabethton 2, Johnson City 4

Box Score

 

In a game of two-run innings, the E-Twins came up short. The loss drops them to 31-30 and into a tie in second place of the Appalachian League West.

 

LaMonte Wade paced the offense with two hits. Kamran Young drove in his 21st run. Jermaine Palacios got another hit, but also committed his 14th error.

 

Dereck Rodriguez struck out five but gave up four runs in six innings. All runs occurred on two-run home runs off of the bat of Allen Staton. Anthony Mciver struck out three in two scoreless innings.

 

GCL TWINS TAKES

GCL Twins 4, GCL Rays 2 (Game 1)

Box Score

 

GCL Twins 2, GCL Rays 6 (Game 2)

Box Score

 

In the first game, the GCL Twins used stellar pitching performances by Jose Martinez (4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 K) and Max Cordy (3 IP, H, 2 BB, 4 K) to propel them to victory. The offense strung together timely hits, getting four runs on six hits. Aaron Whitefield drove in his first run and stole the first base of his professional career.

 

In game two, there were six hits again, but only two runs. Bryant Hayman had two hits, including a double, his 7th. The pitching was subpar. Rich Condeelis struck out four in three innings, allowing only one run before the wheels fell off. Moises Gomez game up three runs and got only two outs. Callen Pearce gave up two runs, and also got only two outs. Vadim Balan was pretty awesome in his pro debut - six batters, five outs, four strikeouts.

 

TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY

 

Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Jose Berrios, Rochester

Twins Daily Minor League Hitters of the Day – Edgar Corcino, Cedar Rapids

 

THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS

 

Rochester vs Syracuse (6:05 CST) - RHP Michael Bowden

Chattanooga vs Tennessee (6:15 CST) – RHP D.J. Baxendale

Ft. Myers vs Bradenton (6:05 CST) – TBD

Cedar Rapids vs Kane County (6:35 CST) – LHP Randy Rosario

Elizabethton vs Kingsport (6:00 CST) - TBD

GCL Twins vs GCL Rays (11:00 CST) - TBD

 

Feel free to leave any questions or comments below!

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Not worried about Kepler. Hasn't been striking out at all. Just bad luck and his Babip coming a little back to earth. I do agree that the bullpen is probably the best route for Berrios. Keeps his innings down while still allowing him to contribute.

[Secondary User]

I know it's been saiid here, but anyone know the typical innings increases for starting pitchers?  15% 20%?

[DaveW]

Berrios should be called up by Sunday.

[sane]

Number of innings is not the issue for Berrios. If he pitches stressful innings as a reliever, it will endanger his arm more than starter innings.

I think he should be pitch VERY few innings, until (and if) the Twins make the playoffs, then he can be used in the playoffs.

[scottz]

Berrios: the kid just wants it. August 31 call-up, so as to be playoff eligible if they make it.

[TNLooky2015]

Congrats to ABW II on becoming the Chattanooga Lookouts Home Run Record Holder in a season.  Also a shout out on becoming the first minor leaguer to 100 RBI for the 2nd time in the last 3 years.  29 & 100 - 

 

http://www.clipsyndicate.com/video/play/5939315?wpid=10957 …

 

Video of Record of HR

[Sweetwater]

Berrios is so studly.

[sane]

I know it's been saiid here, but anyone know the typical innings increases for starting pitchers?  15% 20%?

"But all our data shows that these strategies really make no difference in preventing injury.

The study looked at injury rates based on the number of innings pitched and five levels of yearly increases ranging from 10 to 50 innings. A year-over-year increase of 30 innings pitched is often used as the limit for the number of innings a young starting pitcher is allowed to pitch in any given season. The researchers found no consistent correlation between injuries and the number of innings pitched or rate of yearly increase"

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150406121354.htm

[ThejacKmp]

I hate to be the naysayer here but it would be insane to add Berrios this year and lose his age 29 year on the back end.  He's an elite talent and a potential #1 starter - 1 more year in the Buxton/Sano prime would be way more valuable than 15-20 innings in the pen down the stretch (i don't see who the Twins would be willing to replace in the rotation and there's the matter of innings).

 

It would be different if the Twins were competing for the division title with a full playoff series - you would be thinking more World Series and Berrios could help.  But this is a team that is playing for a chance in the wild card game. It's agonizingly hard not to use him because we want the playoffs so badly but we've got to be smart about this. A full season of Berrios at 29 (knock on wood he's great) takes priority over 15-20 innings in the pen.

 

Go Twins!

[clutterheart]

 

I hate to be the naysayer here but it would be insane to add Berrios this year and lose his age 29 year on the back end.  

 

Stuff like this is only important if the player is marginal or if he struggles and goes up and down.  If he is the pitcher he looks to be Twins will sign him and buy out his last year of arbitration well before his age 29 season. 

[clutterheart]

Is Trey Cabbage hurt?  He has not played since Aug 13

[Brock Beauchamp]

If Berrios doesn't get the call this season, is he a unanimous top ten prospect on major lists?

 

I'm leaning toward "yes". It's almost impossible to doubt the kid at this point.

[HitInAPinch]

 

"But all our data shows that these strategies really make no difference in preventing injury.
The study looked at injury rates based on the number of innings pitched and five levels of yearly increases ranging from 10 to 50 innings. A year-over-year increase of 30 innings pitched is often used as the limit for the number of innings a young starting pitcher is allowed to pitch in any given season. The researchers found no consistent correlation between injuries and the number of innings pitched or rate of yearly increase"
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150406121354.htm

The data is interesting, but is based on a group of players.  And in my book, that doesn't count for much more than interesting stats.  Coaches watch their players and make judgement calls.  Number of innings pitched is nothing more than a guideline.

 

Berrios has pitched only 15 more innings than last year, so I don't believe the end is near.  Just not sure I'd want to take the chance and suffer the rath of TD'ers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"But all our data shows that these strategies really make no difference in preventing injury.
The study looked at injury rates based on the number of innings pitched and five levels of yearly increases ranging from 10 to 50 innings. A year-over-year increase of 30 innings pitched is often used as the limit for the number of innings a young starting pitcher is allowed to pitch in any given season. The researchers found no consistent correlation between injuries and the number of innings pitched or rate of yearly increase"
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150406121354.htm

It sounds like they're taking a "feel" approach with Berrios, which I believe is the right call. The Twins have never mentioned an innings limit for Jose, at least not as far as I know.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

If Berrios doesn't get the call this season, is he a unanimous top ten prospect on major lists?

 

I'm leaning toward "yes". It's almost impossible to doubt the kid at this point.

I'm not all that big on "prospect" lists.  They're still unproven prospects.

That being said:  level after level, Berrios had proven himself.  I don't know if it will be a cursory callup, but I'd like to see him get at least a little action against MLB batters.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I hate to be the naysayer here but it would be insane to add Berrios this year and lose his age 29 year on the back end.  He's an elite talent and a potential #1 starter - 1 more year in the Buxton/Sano prime would be way more valuable than 15-20 innings in the pen down the stretch (i don't see who the Twins would be willing to replace in the rotation and there's the matter of innings).

 

It would be different if the Twins were competing for the division title with a full playoff series - you would be thinking more World Series and Berrios could help.  But this is a team that is playing for a chance in the wild card game. It's agonizingly hard not to use him because we want the playoffs so badly but we've got to be smart about this. A full season of Berrios at 29 (knock on wood he's great) takes priority over 15-20 innings in the pen.

 

Go Twins!

 

I generally agree with postponing Free Agency, but the Twins are in a playoff race right now. IF they believe he can help them get there, they can call him up. 

 

I can't think of (any?) many top-notch Twins players that the team hasn't signed to an extension beyond their free agency timeline going back 20 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I generally agree with postponing Free Agency, but the Twins are in a playoff race right now. IF they believe he can help them get there, they can call him up. 

 

I can't think of (any?) many top-notch Twins players that the team hasn't signed to an extension beyond their free agency timeline going back 20 years.

Yeah, this. If it's April 1st and you have 162 games in front of you and a competent rotation without Berrios, you consider keeping him down for all of 20 days so you can grab an extra year of service time.

 

If it's September 1st and you're in the middle of a playoff race, you say "to hell with that service year" and assemble the best possible roster in Minnesota.

 

If Berrios struggles, there's nothing preventing the Twins from sending him down in 2016 and getting that extra service year.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Stuff like this is only important if the player is marginal or if he struggles and goes up and down.  If he is the pitcher he looks to be Twins will sign him and buy out his last year of arbitration well before his age 29 season. 

 

Yes but if they have him for another year they can buy out that year of arbitration.  The number of years left matters because he'll hit free agency at some point and he gets much more expensive to sign (and is potentially gone given the Twins distaste for long contracts to pitchers).  To put it in another perspective. how much would you have loved to have one more year of Johan Santana at the end of that contract?  It seems a cart before the horse thing to compare Berrios to Santana but that is the best case scenario we have to consider.

The other key to consider is that the number of years of team control dramatically effects the team's leverage in negotiations.  The Twins are unlikely to make a move to sign Berrios after this year and you've then blown a year of getting to know him.  The later into a player's years of control you wait to make that offer, the more you end up paying and the less likely a player is to include a couple of years of free agency for stability. 

15-20 innings of relief are not worth 180-200 innings of starting plus millions of dollars they could spend in other places.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I generally agree with postponing Free Agency, but the Twins are in a playoff race right now. IF they believe he can help them get there, they can call him up. 

 

I can't think of (any?) many top-notch Twins players that the team hasn't signed to an extension beyond their free agency timeline going back 20 years.

 

1) How about Brian Dozier?  The Twins just bought out his years of control in order to stabilize costs, they got none of his free agent years.  It was a good deal based on how he's played this year but if they'd had another year of control (or made the move earlier) they might have had the leverage to ( a ) drop the cost per year considerably or ( b ) get him to throw in a year of free agency on the end in order to keep the salaries higher.  Those years may seem like they don't matter but they really really do.  You really want that extra year of control when you're approaching Berrios about a contract in 2 years.  It might mean you save tens of millions of dollars over the contract or get to buy out a year of free agency relatively cheaply.

2) I understand the playoff angle but how much does Berrios help that?  He's not likely to be starting down the stretch and certainly wouldn't be starting the Wild Card game.  Even if you make the Wild Card game (not a given clearly) you then only have roguhly a 50% chance (and likely less as the Twins will not be favored, won't have a shut down pitcher and will be the road team) of making it to a longer ALDS series where a Berrios-type might make a difference.  And that's not even taking into consideration the fact that if the Twins make it that far, they'd already be able to move 1 or 2 starters to the pen.  Is Berrios in the pen that much better than Pelfrey in the pen?  Is that worth a year of team control and the millions of dollars that it could save the Twins?  Heck no.
 

The Twins should let the future be the (near) future and ride the guys who have gotten them where they are.  Only way I'd bring Berrios up is if there were 2 injuries in the starting rotation and they needed him to start (I say 2 because Hughes will be back soon).

Edited August 27, 2015 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yeah, this. If it's April 1st and you have 162 games in front of you and a competent rotation without Berrios, you consider keeping him down for all of 20 days so you can grab an extra year of service time.

 

If it's September 1st and you're in the middle of a playoff race, you say "to hell with that service year" and assemble the best possible roster in Minnesota.

 

If Berrios struggles, there's nothing preventing the Twins from sending him down in 2016 and getting that extra service year.

 

I just can't buy that it's that simple.  You don't just assemble the best roster, you need to be calm and make reasonable judgements based on risk vs. benefit.  The Twins are risking a lot (a year of control, millions of dollars and maybe health depending on where you come down on that) for very little benefit (a power arm at the back of the bullpen).  The benefits just don't outweigh the risks, and it's not close.  We're all a little starved of playoff experience these last few years and I get the temptation to push balls to the wall but we aren't the Tigers.  We have a bright future with many years of playoff contention.  We can't risk that future to move the bar 1% towards a chance to play a sudden death Wild Card game.

And if he struggles this is all a moot point but if you believe in this guy like we should and do, you have to plan for him not to struggle.

Edited August 27, 2015 by ThejacKmp

[Seth Stohs]

 

1) How about Brian Dozier?  The Twins just bought out his years of control in order to stabilize costs, they got none of his free agent years.  It was a good deal based on how he's played this year but if they'd had another year of control (or made the move earlier) they might have had the leverage to ( a ) drop the cost per year considerably or ( b ) get him to throw in a year of free agency on the end in order to keep the salaries higher.  Those years may seem like they don't matter but they really really do.  You really want that extra year of control when you're approaching Berrios about a contract in 2 years.  It might mean you save tens of millions of dollars over the contract or get to buy out a year of free agency relatively cheaply.

 

OK, there's one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just can't buy that it's that simple.  You don't just assemble the best roster, you need to be calm and make reasonable judgements based on risk vs. benefit.  The Twins are risking a lot (a year of control, millions of dollars and maybe health depending on where you come down on that) for very little benefit (a power arm at the back of the bullpen).  The benefits just don't outweigh the risks, and it's not close.  We're all a little starved of playoff experience these last few years and I get the temptation to push balls to the wall but we aren't the Tigers.  We have a bright future with many years of playoff contention.  We can't risk that future to move the bar 1% towards a chance to play a sudden death Wild Card game.

And if he struggles this is all a moot point but if you believe in this guy like we should and do, you have to plan for him not to struggle.

Health concerns are completely separate from this argument about service time. No matter the situation in Minnesota, if Ryan feels Berrios is hitting a wall, he has to shut him down. Period.

 

At some point, the Twins need to stop worrying about 2022 at the expense of 2015. Like I said, if it's April 1st, yeah, you play Jose in Rochester for 3-4 weeks and then call him up to grab that extra service year because "why not?"

 

But every. win. matters. right now. If Berrios can fill a role and help the Twins squeak out even one more win without bringing up any long-term concerns about his arm, you make that move because one win could be the difference between making the playoffs or missing by a game.

 

And, again, the Twins can send Berrios back down if he struggles in 2016, getting back that extra service year. The vast majority of Twins prospects bounce back and forth a few times before sticking in Minnesota. I hope Berrios isn't one of those guys but I wouldn't bet against it.

 

On top of all that, don't you think Berrios will benefit from learning what it feels like to compete against the best talent in the world in crucial situations during a playoff run?

[Steve Lein]

 

Congrats to ABW II on becoming the Chattanooga Lookouts Home Run Record Holder in a season.  Also a shout out on becoming the first minor leaguer to 100 RBI for the 2nd time in the last 3 years.  29 & 100 - 

 

http://www.clipsyndicate.com/video/play/5939315?wpid=10957 …

 

Video of Record of HR

 

Very cool!

 

Just a note of correction, though. Walker is the first player to hit 100 RBI in a single league this season.

 

A.J. Reed, one of the top contenders for MiLB Player of the Year awards, has 112 between A+ and AA.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

Health concerns are completely separate from this argument about service time. No matter the situation in Minnesota, if Ryan feels Berrios is hitting a wall, he has to shut him down. Period.

 

At some point, the Twins need to stop worrying about 2022 at the expense of 2015. Like I said, if it's April 1st, yeah, you play Jose in Rochester for 3-4 weeks and then call him up to grab that extra service year because "why not?"

 

But every. win. matters. right now. If Berrios can fill a role and help the Twins squeak out even one more win without bringing up any long-term concerns about his arm, you make that move because one win could be the difference between making the playoffs or missing by a game.

 

And, again, the Twins can send Berrios back down if he struggles in 2016, getting back that extra service year. The vast majority of Twins prospects bounce back and forth a few times before sticking in Minnesota. I hope Berrios isn't one of those guys but I wouldn't bet against it.

 

On top of all that, don't you think Berrios will benefit from learning what it feels like to compete against the best talent in the world in crucial situations during a playoff run?

 

1) Agreed on health. That was more of a throw-in.

 

2) I'm doing this more from a "if he doesn't struggle" perspective because if you go from a struggle perspective than you gain nothing from bringing him up now (he struggles) so it's kind of a moot point.  This whole conversation is premised on Berrios being an above average major leaguer with superstar upside.

 

3) At some point you need to play for 2015 but the million dollar question that we disagree on is "Where is that point?" I just don't think that Berrios helps you enough this year (even if he does get you 1 extra win, which is unlikely in that short of a period of time WAR wise) to justify losing a year of him later. If the Twins were the Royals, I might want to bring him up because a World Series is in the mix and you do everything to way that scale. The Twins are not there.  They have an outside shot at playing in a sudden death game that they will likely not be favored to win in order to get the chance to make the "real" playoffs.  Berrios is unlikely to meaningfully impact that one way or the other so it's not worth the very real cost of a year of service time.*

 

4) The Twins aren't going to be a flash in the pan, this isn't going to be his only chance to make a playoff run.  He might even benefit from coming up early in the season when expectations and reprecussions aren't so high (though I will say that everything you read on this kid make you think he'd have no issues with the pressure). 

 

 

* I feel very differently about Max Kepler coming up.  Get that kid up once minor league playoffs are over. His situation is a bit different because the Twin have an obvious need he can fill (ugh to Shane Robinson and Torii starting games and even with Hicks back, Kepler is an ideal platoon partner) and I think that he's likely to start next year in the minors since Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario are all likely to make the team (Arcia because of no options).  Thus, he's way more likely to have some time back in the minors to make up for some of that service time.**

 

** That last part, by the by, is the best argument for bringing up Berrios now.  If you think he'll start next year in the minors, then they can always just hold him down there longer next year and gain back that service time.  I like to think he's going to force his way onto the team next year though.  He's done everything and the upside is so tantalizing.  Hopefully Nolasco goes somehow and we go with Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Berrios?   If we kept Nolasco, I'd even favor wasting May in the pen in order to get Berrios a spot to shine.

Edited August 27, 2015 by ThejacKmp

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I hate to be the naysayer here but it would be insane to add Berrios this year and lose his age 29 year on the back end.  He's an elite talent and a potential #1 starter - 1 more year in the Buxton/Sano prime would be way more valuable than 15-20 innings in the pen down the stretch (i don't see who the Twins would be willing to replace in the rotation and there's the matter of innings).

 

It would be different if the Twins were competing for the division title with a full playoff series - you would be thinking more World Series and Berrios could help.  But this is a team that is playing for a chance in the wild card game. It's agonizingly hard not to use him because we want the playoffs so badly but we've got to be smart about this. A full season of Berrios at 29 (knock on wood he's great) takes priority over 15-20 innings in the pen.

 

Go Twins!

Minor nitpick, Berrios is only 21.  So, if he came up today and never went back down, he'd be eligible for free agency after his age 27 season.  So the "extra year of control" would be his age 28 season.

 

That said, there is no reason the Twins couldn't call him up Sep. 1, and then option him to AAA to begin 2016, then recall him on or after May 20th or so and still get that extra year of control.  If that was so important to them.

 

But, do you know of any teams that have played such service time games with pitchers?  It's much less common than it is for position players, and I think that's for a good reason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That said, there is no reason the Twins couldn't call him up Sep. 1, and then option him to AAA to begin 2016, then recall him on or after May 20th or so and still get that extra year of control.  If that was so important to them.

Responding to my own post, if the Twins recalled him Sep. 1st and didn't like how he adjusted to MLB or saw some warning signs of fatigue, I think they could option him back to the minors so he wouldn't even get the full 34 service remaining in 2016.

 

For example, optioning him on Sep. 16 would leave him with only 15 days service time for 2015, so they  could call him up as early as May 1st next year and still get that extra year of control.  (And by my count, that would only mean 19 days on "optional assignment" for 2015, so the Twins would still retain the full 3 "option years" to use on Berrios in 2016 and beyond.)

 

Even though we're only fighting for a wild card game right now, I think you'd have to be crazy to not at least give this a try in 2015.  As demonstrated, you can always option Berrios later to save service time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

** That last part, by the by, is the best argument for bringing up Berrios now.  If you think he'll start next year in the minors, then they can always just hold him down there longer next year and gain back that service time.  I like to think he's going to force his way onto the team next year though.  He's done everything and the upside is so tantalizing.

I think you might be exaggerating Berrios' upside here too.  He could be quite good very soon, but he's probably a #20 range MLB prospect with a career minor league ERA around 3.  He's probably closer to Matt Garza level prospect than elite like Giolito or Urias now, or Strasburg, Price, Felix, etc. in the past.  He could take things to another level eventually, a few guys certainly do, but you can't always hold back assets thinking only of their best-case scenario.

 

That means two things for your argument:

 

1 ) his age-28 FA season probably isn't as unobtainable in a contract extension as you suggest.  Even if does ascend to elite, it might take him a couple years (as it did Pedro Martinez and others).

 

2 ) it probably won't be all that difficult to justify him starting 2016 in the minors for 4-6 weeks.  I doubt he's elite that quickly.  We somehow used Santana and Liriano out of the bullpen for multiple months when they were apparently ready to be elite MLB starters, I am pretty sure we could send Berrios to the minors for a month.  (This might actually be prudent if we want to conserve his innings a bit yet in 2016, with an eye toward possible postseason competition.)

Edited August 27, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1) How about Brian Dozier?  The Twins just bought out his years of control in order to stabilize costs, they got none of his free agent years.  It was a good deal based on how he's played this year but if they'd had another year of control (or made the move earlier) they might have had the leverage to ( a ) drop the cost per year considerably or ( b ) get him to throw in a year of free agency on the end in order to keep the salaries higher.

This is an argument for aggressively pursuing an extension with a player before they are a mere year away from arbitration, like Dozier was this past winter.

 

We will still have plenty of time to do that with Berrios regardless of when we call him up, unless you think he will immediately pitch like prime Pedro Martinez his first year in MLB (which even Pedro didn't do until his 5th year in MLB).

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think you might be exaggerating Berrios' upside here too.  He could be quite good very soon, but he's probably a #20 range MLB prospect with a career minor league ERA around 3.  He's probably closer to Matt Garza level prospect than elite like Giolito or Urias now, or Strasburg, Price, Felix, etc. in the past.  He could take things to another level eventually, a few guys certainly do, but you can't always hold back assets thinking only of their best-case scenario.

 

That means two things for your argument:

 

1 ) his age-28 FA season probably isn't as unobtainable in a contract extension as you suggest.  Even if does ascend to elite, it might take him a couple years (as it did Pedro Martinez and others).

 

2 ) it probably won't be all that difficult to justify him starting 2016 in the minors for 4-6 weeks.  I doubt he's elite that quickly.  We somehow used Santana and Liriano out of the bullpen for multiple months when they were apparently ready to be elite MLB starters, I am pretty sure we could send Berrios to the minors for a month.  (This might actually be prudent if we want to conserve his innings a bit yet in 2016, with an eye toward possible postseason competition.)

 

All the more reason to wait on this year. If it takes him awhile to ascend to elite (and you're right, I'm putting cart way before the horse on that one, he may never make it) then the Twins are going to need to wait to see how he develops before committing. As we saw with a later-developing Dozier, that can make it harder to get a good deal since a player is close to free agency. This is all the more reason to wait on Berrios this year and thus have an extra year at the end of team control when he is performing at his peak, not less. 

The service time thing is only part of it. Outside of injuries in the rotation that let him start, he just isn't going to have enough of an impact on this year's race to justify accruing the service time.

Edited August 27, 2015 by ThejacKmp