Article: Twins Prospect Max Kepler Continues To Impress

[nicksaviking]

 

Credit goes to Twins scout Andy Johnson. Per an article in the Wall Street Journal: 

 

"Norway-based scout Andy Johnson had spotted Max at a tournament when he was 14"

 

Man, that article just brings up more questions!  A Norway-based scout? That has to be pretty unique.

 

The leauge has a page in the Internation Baseball Federation website though:

 

http://www.ibaf.org/en/nation/04110913-dbbd-4066-be73-e130a4d8b3e3

 

"Winningest team in the adult league is Oslo Pretenders, with 16 Series Championships and 18 National Championships."

 

The Oslo Pretenders website:

 

http://www.oslopretenders.com/#!player-profiles/cam6

 

Not sure that there's many guys on that roster that looks like they're under 35, and I'd love to hear the story that brought the team the Japanese player.

 

Hopefully the scout is now a German-based or perhaps Netherlands-based scout.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Plus 4 inches, but otherwise, yeah.

You know, Kubel might not have been as tall and handsome as Kepler, but...he was much uglier.

[Loosey]

As stale as the Twins have been the last 4 years they really have an exciting future core coming up.  If If most of these guys reach their potential we could be in for a fun next 5-10 years.  Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Sano, May, Berrios, Duffey.  I can't remember having young excitement like this before.  Even in the early 2000's, those guys were good, but there was nowhere near the level of expectations this group has.

[howieramone2]

Just another example of how The Twins Way works.

[jimbo92107]

The transition from the 2nd to the 3rd GIF is very revealing. In GIF 2, Kepler's toe touch doesn't do much to load up on his rear foot. His swing releases a small amount of load energy too soon, resulting in a slap swing with not much power.

 

The 3rd GIF shows a much better load move onto his drive leg. This not only provides much more power, but it also helps keep his shoulder and torso closed, which allows him to wait a click longer and drive the ball against lefties.

 

The leg kick does three good things. It provides power from extra loading up, it turns the shoulders, torso and hips to avoid stepping in the bucket against lefties, and it allows you to check your swing before the bat head comes around, like Sano does.

 

Miguel Sano does this so smoothly because he's been doing it since he was a kid. Max Kepler is just learning the kick-load move, so you can see it develop. I'd love to see Kepler get a September call-up, but next spring I'd like to see him start in AAA, so he can get more accustomed to the check swing part of that move.

 

You can actually see Sano's power in the way he checks his swing. Keeping the bat tightly cocked on a check swing reveals just how tight his snap is when he does let it go. If Kepler learns to check his swing like Sano, he will start popping a lot more baseballs over the fence. Saving the snap is one of the Big Secrets.

[Parker Hageman]

Miguel Sano does this so smoothly because he's been doing it since he was a kid.

 

 

Sano has a toe-tap.

 

 

 

[Willihammer]

Yeah Sano's swing more resembles the second photo.

 

Its more proof that you have to tailor approaches by batter IMO. Dozier and Sano use a toe tap and it works brilliantly. Kepler abandoned the toe tap in favor of a leg kick and the results speak for themselves. Its amazing how differently kids respond to different things.

[Parker Hageman]

Its more proof that you have to tailor approaches by batter IMO. Dozier and Sano use a toe tap and it works brilliantly. Kepler abandoned the toe tap in favor of a leg kick and the results speak for themselves. Its amazing how differently kids respond to different things.

 

 

Right. To be clear, the toe tap isn't necessarily bad. Sano, Bryant, Abreu, Trout all use the toe-tap. They are all strong individuals as well. The kick can act as a good timing mechanism, like Hicks needed, or it can be a strong gathering/load mechanism (like Jimbo pointed out in the second paragraph) like we see with Kepler or both. 

 

I am a big advocate of using a leg kick and getting athletic with a swing but it is not for everyone. Part of why it is working for Kepler right now is that he gets what pitchers are doing with him. He is able to combine the physical tools with the mental side of the game. 

 

[John Bonnes]

I"m often hesitant to call a guy up to the Bigs after only one breakthrough season, but that K/BB ratio really gives me confidence that he knows what he's doing at the plate right now. I don't really know how to do that with this lineup right now, but I'm excited for Kepler's future. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

One advantage of keeping Kepler in Chatanooga is he gets to play in the Southern League postseason.

 

Does that matter? Dunno, but it's a consideration.

There still could be as many as 3 weeks left in the MLB season when the AA playoffs are over for Chattanooga.

 

I think you have to give him a cup of coffee at that point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There still could be as many as 3 weeks left in the MLB season when the AA playoffs are over for Chattanooga.

I think you have to give him a cup of coffee at that point.

I don't see why not. May as well let him get a taste of flying from city to city instead of busing it. Bonus points if the Twins are still in contention.

[nytwinsfan]

The "problem" is that the Twins (1) don't like to platoon, (2) have at least three other good to great young outfielders, and (3) have Mauer and Sano at 1B and DH (with Vargas probably taking over DH or 1B if Plouffe is traded and Sano takes over 3b).  So unless the Twins decide to Platoon, one of Rosario, Hicks, Buxton is traded, or Plouffe is traded and the Twins make Kepler a 1B, I don't see a spot for Kepler.  Sure, there could be injuries next year, but you can't count on that and you have to hope it doesn't happen. It would be good to see him this September so that if trades happen this offseason the Twins have some (albeit still limited) sense of his ability.

[Willihammer]

IMO Arcia then Rosario are first in line. Kepler is third. For now he's an awesome depth piece with options that can be exercised in '16 and again in '17 (if I'm reading the Organization Chart page correctly). Things will happen over the next 2 years and it will  be good to be able to pull someone like him up when they do.

[nytwinsfan]

 

IMO Arcia then Rosario are first in line. Kepler is third. For now he's an awesome depth piece with options that can be exercised in '16 and again in '17 (if I'm reading the Organization Chart page correctly). Things will happen over the next 2 years and it will  be good to be able to pull someone like him up when they do.

 

Arcia is not an outfielder. Sorry, but he will never be anything other than an emergency OF for the Twins again, and thank goodness for that. (he might be a DH though).

[Seth Stohs]

 

Keep him down for the playoffs, then a week off before heading out to Arizona. 

 

Nah, he's been to the AFL the last two years... I think he gets called up and then gets to spend his offseason however he wants... though he could play in VZ or something.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I know this is one...albiet huge...blossoming year for Kepler.  But when I read stuff like this, when I read everything he's done this year, when I read scouting reports, when I look at numbers, when I examine all-around ability-potential-athleticism, I can't help myself....I start thinking he is a #3 hitter of the future for the Twins.

 

I think that is very realistic. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

IMO Arcia then Rosario are first in line. Kepler is third. For now he's an awesome depth piece with options that can be exercised in '16 and again in '17 (if I'm reading the Organization Chart page correctly). Things will happen over the next 2 years and it will  be good to be able to pull someone like him up when they do.

Oh, you guys and your Arcia talk! I don't know whether to laugh or cry anymore.

 

[bluechipper]

 

Arcia is not an outfielder. Sorry, but he will never be anything other than an emergency OF for the Twins again, and thank goodness for that. (he might be a DH though).

I think that might be a bit over the top. Eduardo Escobar started 27 games in the OF this year, where he was twice as bad as Arcia has been.

 

The Twins now having 3 solid left-handed hitting corner OFers to find somewhere to play in the next year or two should make for some interesting competition (and hopefully no more Shane Robinson starts).

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Sano has a toe-tap.

So does Buxton.

[nytwinsfan]

I think that might be a bit over the top. Eduardo Escobar started 27 games in the OF this year, where he was twice as bad as Arcia has been.

So because Kennys Vargas would be twice as bad at SS as Joe Mauer, does that mean we should move Mauer to SS?

[Turd Furgeson]

Looking at Hicks monthly splits I'm starting to lose confidence in his resurgence. He had a 1.000 OPS in July but a .600 OPS in August and of course still the extreme lefty/righty splits. I do think it will be Hicks and Kepler that end up fighting for one of the corner outfield spots next year if Kepler can keep improving off of this great season he's having. 

[bluechipper]

 

So because Kennys Vargas would be twice as bad at SS as Joe Mauer, does that mean we should move Mauer to SS?

No, it shows that the Twins were willing to put a mediocre-hitting shortstop in left field, which makes it unlikely that they would rule out a guy who is a superior fielder out there.

[nicksaviking]

 

Arcia is not an outfielder. Sorry, but he will never be anything other than an emergency OF for the Twins again, and thank goodness for that. (he might be a DH though).

 

There's a difference between not playing the outfield well and not playing it at all. 

 

If the Twins are going to consider moving Arcia, they're going to have to put him back out there.  If the Twins don't show a willingness to put him in the OF they'll get nothing for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Looking at Hicks monthly splits I'm starting to lose confidence in his resurgence. He had a 1.000 OPS in July but a .600 OPS in August and of course still the extreme lefty/righty splits. I do think it will be Hicks and Kepler that end up fighting for one of the corner outfield spots next year if Kepler can keep improving off of this great season he's having. 

Hicks had a .217 BABIP in August. That's really all you need to know about Hicks' August. He had just 16 hits but six of those hits were doubles or homers. He only drew one walk but given Aaron's history, that doesn't concern me a whole lot. He's going to be a somewhat streaky player, I think... At least until he's able to show a little consistency from the left side of the plate.

 

By comparison, Hicks was truly awful in 2013 and 2014 (as we all know). Here were his BABIP stats:

 

2013: .241

2014: .300

 

Even during his disastrous 2013 season, his BABIP was .025 higher than it was in August.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Hicks had a .217 BABIP in August. That's really all you need to know about Hicks' August. He had just 16 hits but six of those hits were doubles or homers. He only drew one walk but given Aaron's history, that doesn't concern me a whole lot. He's going to be a somewhat streaky player, I think... At least until he's able to show a little consistency from the left side of the plate.

 

By comparison, Hicks was truly awful in 2013 and 2014 (as we all know). Here were his BABIP stats:

 

2013: .241

2014: .300

 

Even during his disastrous 2013 season, his BABIP was .025 higher than it was in August.

Agreed that I would not read too much into the August numbers, especially because there were a lot of RHP he faced.  The real difference is not by months, but by handedness of the pitcher.  Despite all the talk that he has figured out how to be decent against RHP, his OPS on the year is still .634 against them. At most it has gone from disastrous to poor. That might cut it as a split against RHP for a CF with good defense on a different team (one without Byron Buxton), but it won't cut it for this current team. Aaron Hicks plays good defense and destroys LHP. And for that, he will probably always have a spot on a major league team. But it is questionable whether he has a future with the Twins unless it is as at least a partial platoon player. Sure, there is some chance he will figure out RHP enough to have a .670 to .700 OPS, in which case he might be able to be a plus defense, below average hitting corner outfielder. But I think that is unlikely. He's been in the majors three years now, and still hasn't figured out RHP.

Edited August 27, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed that I would not read too much into the August numbers, especially because there were a lot of RHP he faced.  The real difference is not by months, but by handedness of the pitcher.  Despite all the talk that he has figured out how to be decent against RHP, his OPS on the year is still .634 against them. At most it has gone from disastrous to poor. That might cut it as a split against RHP for a CF with good defense on a different team (one without Byron Buxton), but it won't cut it for this current team. Aaron Hicks plays good defense and destroys LHP. And for that, he will probably always have a spot on a major league team. But it is questionable whether he has a future with the Twins unless it is as at least a partial platoon player. Sure, there is some chance he will figure out RHP enough to have a .670 to .700 OPS, in which case he might be able to be a plus defense, below average hitting corner outfielder. But I think that is unlikely. He's been in the majors three years now, and still hasn't figured out RHP.

He has been in the majors for three seasons but only 800 PAs. That's what really matters. The last 180 of those PAs have been pretty good.

 

And while his RHP split is a pretty bad .634, he had ~90 PAs (roughly 35% of his 2015 PAs) with a sub-.550 OPS against RHP. That means he's been somewhere around .700 since the call-up. Still not great but somewhat promising going forward.

 

But I agree with your general point that Hicks isn't the best fit for the Twins right now. Given their other options, Hicks in a corner spot isn't the best use of his talents.

[BoomBoom]

Max is having an awesome season and should get that September Call Up.  I would love for someone to ask the Rookies in MN now (Rosario; Sano; Buxton; & Duffy;) , who they think is next in line for a promotion based on what they've seen as former teammates.  

 

What former teammate has impressed you the most, who isn't in MN right now?  I think that is a great question for a reporter to ask IMO.