Article: Nolasco Stuck In No Man's Land

[Nick Nelson]

Yesterday I posed a question for readers about Trevor May, noting his spectacular numbers as a reliever and pondering whether the Twins should view him as a solution to their bullpen needs going forward.

 

The comments section featured a lively discussion and there wasn't much consensus on the best course of action. One thing did appear to to be unanimous, however, and has for some time: No one seems to want Ricky Nolasco in the 2016 rotation, blocking May or any other talented youngster.The distaste for Nolasco amongst Twins fans is certainly understandable. As we all know, his contract has been an unmitigated disaster up to this point. In his first season with the club after becoming the highest-paid free agent in franchise history, he went 6-12 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, both career-worst marks.

 

This year, his numbers didn't look any better on the surface before he went down with an ankle injury that ended his season after just two months. In seven starts, he had a 5.53 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

 

However, there were some positive signs hidden within those bloated numbers, and I'm not talking about his irrelevant 5-1 win/loss record. In 32 2/3 innings, Nolasco had a solid 28-to-10 K/BB ratio, and he was showing slightly improved velocity on his fastball. His FIP checked in at a shiny 2.82.

 

His main problem was that he was giving up a ton of hits, but the .394 BABIP looks awfully flukish when you consider that he gave up only one home run and 13 total extra-base hits in those seven starts. Nolasco wasn't getting pounded, he was giving up singles in bunches, with an unsustainably low 59.7 percent strand rate. That kind of misfortune tends to even out over extended time, but the righty never had the chance for normalization to set in because he has been on the disabled list since the end of May.

 

His ankle issues have been frustrating, undoubtedly for him as much as anyone. It was apparently an old injury that resurfaced, and Nolasco took a cortisone shot before ultimately going under the knife in July to try and correct it.

 

While he's unlikely to throw another pitch this season, Nolasco will have a full offseason to heal up and return next year. At that point, his quality peripherals, along with his track record and his not-all-that-advanced age (he'll turn 33 in December), offer plenty of reason to believe that he can rebound and return to being the useful starter that the Twins thought they were signing in the first place.

 

That's why all the talk I keep seeing about Nolasco being a "sunk cost," and the suggestions that he should simply be cut outright this winter, strike me as a little ridiculous. He is owed $25 million after this season. I know it's not our money, but does it really seem wise to just flush it down the drain when we've barely had a chance to see what Nolasco can do when he's right physically?

 

It's not, and it's not realistic. Nolasco will be here at the start of the 2016 season. If things get off to a similarly brutal start, then at that time I could perhaps see the Twins taking the rather drastic step of cutting ties and eating many millions of dollars. But they won't do so before then, nor should they.

 

However, it is not unthinkable that another club could take interest in the veteran starter during the offseason and flip another bulky contract for his, or take on a share of what he's owed with the Twins picking up the rest. There were some rumblings of the Twins and Padres working on something with Nolasco and James Shields leading up to the deadline, though nothing materialized.

 

If you're looking to see a Twins rotation next April that doesn't include Nolasco – and who could blame you, since there figure to be several more trustworthy options available – that might be your best bet.

 

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[kab21]

He will certainly be here for spring training but it would be a shame if he was gifted a rotation spot because of his sunk/committed cost.

[KScott]

When reading the intro to this article with the Trevor May lead in, I was expecting the suggestion of a swap of roles. To which I thought that'd be intriguing, does he have the make up of a reliever? If so, that is what I want to see of Nolasco, shore up the bullpen and let May get down to business as a front of the rotation guy.

[Twodogs]

Proof this year, you cant have enough starting pitchers.  With all of the guys we had going into this season the Twins have Duffy now starting?  So I'd say lets not rush anything until we know how everyone is going to perform.  Personally, the pitcher I am worried about is Santana.  He has been a PED guy all this time, (Possibly) Now that he has been caught he will be on the radar and will have to stay clean.  I question whether his arm holds up over a full season without the use of PED's?  Fact is that Nolasco should for the most part be all healed up by next year and actually be pretty well rejuvenated with only parts of the last two seasons pitched.  So we really should just wait and see.  

 

Here is what the Twins have coming back for next year

Hughes

Nolasco

Santana

Gibson

May

Milone

Duffy

 

I dont see pelf coming back, I can easily see Santana coming up injured, Hughes is injured right now.  Duffy is too young to count on right now, have to see him come out in Spring Training.  That leaves Nolasco, who should be completely healthy, Gibson, May, Milone.  Berrios may take a little time to get used to coming up, so next year could be a year like May or even Duffy are having this year for Berrios.  I don't think cutting Nolasco would be very smart right now. 

[h2oface]

When Nolasco is written about, "quality peripherals" invariably are mentioned. Fact is, Nolasco is not a "useful starter". He never seems to get the results the peripherals suggest he is capable of, and it was a bad signing, unless you are conditioned to accept that a win one lose one pitcher with a 4-5 ERA is useful. Santana, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and even the Hughes extension (when he had 2 years left on his contract) was misguided, in my opinion, at the time and now. I am so tired of mediocre free agents being signed. 

[Platoon]

Proof this year, you cant have enough starting pitchers.  With all of the guys we had going into this season the Twins have Duffy now starting?  So I'd say lets not rush anything until we know how everyone is going to perform.  Personally, the pitcher I am worried about is Santana.  He has been a PED guy all this time, (Possibly) Now that he has been caught he will be on the radar and will have to stay clean.  I question whether his arm holds up over a full season without the use of PED's?  Fact is that Nolasco should for the most part be all healed up by next year and actually be pretty well rejuvenated with only parts of the last two seasons pitched.  So we really should just wait and see.  

 

Here is what the Twins have coming back for next year

Hughes

Nolasco

Santana

Gibson

May

Milone

Duffy

 

I dont see pelf coming back, I can easily see Santana coming up injured, Hughes is injured right now.  Duffy is too young to count on right now, have to see him come out in Spring Training.  That leaves Nolasco, who should be completely healthy, Gibson, May, Milone.  Berrios may take a little time to get used to coming up, so next year could be a year like May or even Duffy are having this year for Berrios.  I don't think cutting Nolasco would be very smart right now.

 

That is seven names that will strike fear into baseball fans, sadly they will mostly be Twins fans. Santana and Nolasco will get 40% of the starts. Then which Hughes will appear? The bad Hughes gets you to 60% of mostly hopelessness! Whoever thought we would look at Santana's exclusion from the playoffs as a good thing!

[HitInAPinch]

Is it "No man's land" or "Just no man, just noooooo..."    

[DaveW]

They need to find a way to trade one of Santana or Nolasco. One in the rotation isn't an issue. Two very much is. I would take shields here in a heartbeat.

[PopRiveter]

"When Nolasco is written about, "quality peripherals" invariably are mentioned. Fact is, Nolasco is not a "useful starter". He never seems to get the results the peripherals suggest he is capable of"

 

Well stated. I'll go a step further. FIP, specifically, can be pretty misleading when used independently. Nolasco gets hit pretty well (opponents' .276/.320/.437) but FIP only accounts for home runs and walks, so all the singles, doubles, triples, successful bunts, sac flies, etc. are disregarded. 

 

He's a prime example of the limitation of this particular stat. Measured by FIP, he's a 3.80 pitcher, but in real baseball, he's a 4.50 pitcher.

 

For some pitching styles, the peripherals do a nice job of predicting success/failure, but for Nolasco's entire career he's underperformed his peripherals. These measures clearly aren't a reliable guide for him. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Twins have a few really glaring issues at Catcher, Short Stop, and the bullpen. The Twins could really help themselves out if they can find a taker for one or two Nolasco, Santana, Milone, or even Phil Hughes. I'm guessing the last two would get more in return. Gibson should be considered available as well.

 

Berrios might be pitching in the majors quite a bit next year, especially if one of the four veterans are traded away.

 

Don't forget that Alex Meyer could possibly have a rebound season next year as well.

 

There's May, Meyer, Duffey, Berrios - before you even get to the veteran guys. Depth like that is really nice. I wouldn't hold my breath on Meyer, but at least two of the young guys and at least three of the veterans will be fighting for the 5 starting spots in 2016. I'm hoping someone gets moved to bring in a catcher or a SS that can be a bridge to Polanco or Gordon.

 

 

[Blackjack]

There's no such thing as too much pitching. The Twins just need to be a little quicker at making a change when the starters under perform. 

[Shane Wahl]

 

When reading the intro to this article with the Trevor May lead in, I was expecting the suggestion of a swap of roles. To which I thought that'd be intriguing, does he have the make up of a reliever? If so, that is what I want to see of Nolasco, shore up the bullpen and let May get down to business as a front of the rotation guy.

 

This. I think this is absolutely in order. Obviously, that kind of money for a middle reliever (let's not set the bar too high) is terrible, but the money is going to be spent.

[spinowner]

Minority opinion here. I still give Nolasco the benefit of the doubt. His overall performance has certainly been poor but there are two things to mention. One, the injuries. I'm inclined to think that his health was a significant contributing factor in the results he got over the last two years. Two, he has had a (small) handful of games where he looked very sharp. I know it's hard for some (or many) people to accept but I think he does deserve an opportunity in spring training and the early season to show us whether there's a chance. I'm not expecting Cy Young pitching but as many have said it doesn't hurt to have extra starters. We took a similar track with Pelfrey and wound up getting far more from him than many people thought we would.

Trading Nolasco right now would be very unlikely to fetch anybody worthwhile. If one truly feels that trading a starter is the thing to do I think Hughes would probably generate the best net return based on the way things stand today. If Nolasco does wind up pitching well next spring I certainly would shop him at that time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's not, and it's not realistic. Nolasco will be here at the start of the 2016 season. If things get off to a similarly brutal start, then at that time I could perhaps see the Twins taking the rather drastic step of cutting ties and eating many millions of dollars. But they won't do so before then, nor should they.

This is my feeling as well. They'll give Ricky one more shot and if he stumbles again, I think they'll consider removing him from the roster.

 

When healthy, he's not a great pitcher but he's a serviceable one. Personally, like many Twins fans, I hold nothing but contempt for the guy. I wish he was off the roster but I'm not ready to kick him to the curb for nothing, either.

[Mike Sixel]

Every opportunity for him is probably NOT one for Berrios......I get the depth thing, I do. But if you keep your better player in AAA, just in case of injury, is that really the best idea?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Every opportunity for him is probably NOT one for Berrios......I get the depth thing, I do. But if you keep your better player in AAA, just in case of injury, is that really the best idea?

Well, no matter what the rotation looked like, it'd be nice to keep Jose in Rochester through the middle of April no matter what. That will convert his age 29 season into a team-controlled year.

 

And I believe it's a solid strategy to game the controlled years in that fashion, particularly for pitchers. It's different if you have a guy at third who plays a single position. At some point, you either need to release/bench the existing third baseman and rotate in the new kid.

 

But the rotation? 20% of an MLB roster is the starting rotation. The likelihood of a guy underperforming or getting injured early in the season is high. It's pretty easy to rotate in a kid who you feel is ready at almost any time from mid-April onward. All you need is one guy out of five to have some kind of setback in the early going. That's not only common, it's kinda expected in today's game.

 

And that's not even including the option of bringing a young pitcher up through the bullpen.

[DaveW]

Berrios should be starting opening day next year. Service time be damned, they already "saved" a year with Sano and Buxton, they can pay a few extra bucks for Berrios when the time calls for it.

Edited August 26, 2015 by DaveW

[Mike Sixel]

Berrios should be up now, in the bullpen or rotation. They are legit playoff contenders, that should be the focus right now, not 7 years from now.....

[troyhobbs]

I'm not for cutting Nolasco but I wouldn't put him in the rotation just because of his salary either. Maybe he can find something as a RP or if some other sucker wants to make a trade for him, even better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Berrios should be up now, in the bullpen or rotation. They are legit playoff contenders, that should be the focus right now, not 7 years from now.....

I'm fine with Berrios getting the call now, my post about service time was under the assumption he wouldn't appear with the Twins this season.

 

I believe the Twins denied Jose's request to play winter ball so I suspect they're planning to shut him down relatively soon. I don't think he's going to make an appearance this season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm fine with Berrios getting the call now, my post about service time was under the assumption he wouldn't appear with the Twins this season.

I believe the Twins denied Jose's request to play winter ball so I suspect they're planning to shut him down relatively soon. I don't think he's going to make an appearance this season.

 

Ya.......ya......probably right....

[John Bonnes]

Listen, I agree that Nolasco will likely get another (hopefully healthy) chance. And I'm even optimistic that it might work out. 

 

But we're also got a numbers game going on here. Nolasco, Hughes and Santana are taking three spots. That leaves two spots for Milone, May, Duffey and Berrios, right? Which likely means some pretty unhappy people in April when Duffy and Berrios are in Rochester, or May is in the bullpen. (And it feels like I'm missing someone....)

 

So while it isn't crazy to think Nolasco will be back, I can understand the frustration. It keeps depth, but does hurt future development of some important arms. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If I'm Terry Ryan, most of the rotation is on the auction block this winter. Nolasco, Santana, Gibson, Milone.

 

Two of those guys are basically unmovable. Gibson is a good pitcher under team control. I'd prefer to keep him but would let him go for the right catcher or prospect.

 

Which leaves Milone. I'd probably try to move him for a prospect. That shouldn't be difficult. He's a career 99 OPS+ guy with several years of control.

 

Something has to give in the rotation and with the amount of mediocre vets under team control/contract, Milone seems the guy most likely to move for something of value while not crippling the 2016 rotation.

 

If you can move Duffey, have at it... But I don't see that happening.

 

That allows you to enter 2016 with Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, Gibson, May. Call up Berrios the moment one of them falters and never look back.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Which leaves Milone. I'd probably try to move him for a prospect. That shouldn't be difficult. He's a career 99 OPS+ guy with several years of control.

 

 

Whoa!  Can he play catcher?

[Willihammer]

Hughes' 2014 was an outlier. The Twins need to have a heart to heart with him this offseason and ask him to move to relief.

 

I'd have a heart to heart with Nolasco too. His body does not seem up to the task of starting anymore. And even if it were, the results are spotty, at best. Tell him to relieve too.

 

Duffey to Rochester staying stretched out in case of injury/ineffectiveness.

 

Santana-May-Gibson-Berrios-Milone to start the year.

Edited August 26, 2015 by Willihammer

[DJL44]

Long relief. I think Nolasco has better stuff than Blaine Boyer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Whoa!  Can he play catcher?

Took me a minute to get that.

 

Whoops.

[DocBauer]

I absolutely hate the idea of spending that kind of money on a middle reliever...or set up man should Nolasco find a comfortable home in the bullpen. But I think relief might be the best option for he and the Twins should he be brought back. For seeming physical limitations on his body if nothing else.

 

I didn't hate the Nolasco signing when it was made, so I can't go back now and scream about it being a bad deal when it was solid and market value when it happened. But sometimes, bad luck or karma, things just don't work out right for a player and a team. Witness Pavano and the Yankees for a recent reference that deals with our beloved Twins.

 

I believe the Twins should be as agressive as can be to move Nolasco this off season. Probably back to the NL where he has most of his experience. Just call it bad luck, a deal and fit that didn't work out, and everyone needs to try to walk away from it. Toss in some cash to cover the remaining 2 years, maybe a level C prospect to get a B prospect in return, and everyone gets on with life.

 

Hugh, Santana, Gibson, May, Milone, Berrios and Duffey all strong possibilities, we just don't have room for Nolasco at this point.

 

Now...the whole San Diego and Shields trade idea is a different animal. And not because Shield is owed more, and for a year longer, but is a better pitcher. (provided he doesn't suddenly lose it or break down) But if you make the move for Shields, you are suddenly back to too many bodies/arms again. Now what? You are, more than likely, not going to be able to move Santana as well. Would you dare trade one of the youngster? I think not. Milone? 

 

So again...in theory, if you make the Shield deal...then what?

[DaveW]

 

Listen, I agree that Nolasco will likely get another (hopefully healthy) chance. And I'm even optimistic that it might work out. 

 

But we're also got a numbers game going on here. Nolasco, Hughes and Santana are taking three spots. That leaves two spots for Milone, May, Duffey and Berrios, right? Which likely means some pretty unhappy people in April when Duffy and Berrios are in Rochester, or May is in the bullpen. (And it feels like I'm missing someone....)

 

So while it isn't crazy to think Nolasco will be back, I can understand the frustration. It keeps depth, but does hurt future development of some important arms. 

You forgot Gibson.

 

So that leaves one spot for Milone, May, Duffey and Berrios. All four of which are better starting options at this point then Santana or Nolasco.

[Nick Nelson]

I did think about bringing up the idea of shifting Nolasco to the bullpen, but it seems like a longshot since he's made 1 relief appearance in the last 7 years and has never gained much experience in the role. Could still happen though.

 

Hughes to the bullpen is an interesting idea, as he was an absolutely dominant reliever for the Yankees back in '09. But I suspect he'll get quite a bit more leash as a starter based on his 2015 season and his contract.