Article: Trevor May Is Thriving In The Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

It was fairly evident in spring training that the Twins might have some issues this year with right-handers in the bullpen. Rolling into the season with a declining Casey Fien, a mediocre Blaine Boyer and a handful of unproven youngsters, the unit lacked reliable options.

 

Indeed, righty relief has been a persistent problem for Minnesota, and the team made a deadline move to address it with the acquisition of Kevin Jepsen.

 

Yet, the most impactful addition to the bullpen has come from the inside. Trevor May has been a monster in his new role.The above graph from Brooks Baseball provides a visualization of May's pitch velocities over the course of the 2015 season. You can see that since the 25-year-old switched gigs upon Ervin Santana's early-July return to the rotation, he's added substantial heat to each of his offerings – most notably the fastball, which has recently been sizzling in at more than 95 MPH.

 

The increased gas has unsurprisingly coincided with heightened effectiveness for all of May's pitches, and that has been reflected in his results. Over the past calendar month, he has made 12 relief appearances and hasn't allowed a single run. The only damage that's been dealt against the righty during that span was in a spot start against Cleveland, when he gave up a couple runs in three innings.

 

Every time May trots out to the mound in the late innings, he looks more and more comfortable. His numbers are growing increasingly dominant as he acclimates to his new duties. Here in August, he has faced 33 batters as a reliever and allowed only five hits, with 13 strikeouts and one walk.

 

It's becoming quite clear that May is one of those starting pitchers that uncovers a new level of performance pitching in shorter stints. Such players are not all that rare. Kansas City's Wade Davis is a familiar example. But of course, Davis had exhausted his opportunities as a starter, delivering 64 starts worth of mediocrity in Tampa before the Rays finally decided to try him in the pen. That hasn't been the case for May. Most would agree that his demotion was undeserved, and you can make a pretty good argument that he's pitched better as a starter this year than anyone currently in the rotation.

 

And so the Twins face an interesting conundrum going forward. Right-handed relief will probably still be a prioritized need in the offseason as they gear up for true contention efforts in 2016, and May is looking like their best bet. He has the makings of a lights-out setup guy in front of Glen Perkins.

 

Meanwhile, the rotation is already shaping up to be a bit crowded with Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey and maybe Tommy Milone all in play.

 

As is always the case, May can be a far more valuable player as a quality starter than as an excellent reliever. It seems ridiculous to give up on his arm in a role where it can make a far greater impact, and it also seems quite unfair to him. He'd prefer to start and has done nothing to forfeit that chance other than pitching his ass off in relief.

 

But with all things considered, one can see the appeal of committing to him as a late-inning weapon and dramatically lessening some of the club's ongoing bullpen concerns.

 

What say you?

 

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[Larsbars08]

It's great to know that he can play that role if need be. However until he proves that he can't be a starter he should be a lock to make the rotation next year. Pelfrey and Milone shouldn't be starters next year, and in a perfect world May and Berrios should round out the rotation next year. May deserves every chance to prove himself as a starter. Nolasco has been a flop and frankly is a sunk cost at this point.

 

I think it's likely that the starting 5 next year out of Spring Training will be Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and May. Despite the contract, Nolasco should have the tightest leash. I assume Berrios will have a spot as soon as the Super 2 deadline passes. 

 

Duffey seems like a great depth pitcher to have, assuming his last two starts are more indicative than the first. 

[blairpaul715]

I have no problem with May being in the pen this yr, and maybe next yr too, if we dont find other quaility relievers.......he was mostly a 6 inning pitcher, and did it pretty well, but we had no or little quality to follow him coming out of the pen, and I think he was a much better bullpen option than Pelfrey, but i guess we wont know for sure since Pelfrey never relieved, but May has strikeout ability were Pelfrey not as much so...........but unless we find or develop a couple more starters by next yr, i prefer May in the starting rotation long term as i think he has the makings of a #3 starter.

[nater79a]

Would be interesting to see at least two or three more quality starts out of Tyler Duffey to see if he is a viable option for a rotation spot in '16.  If he is, then maybe you can think long and hard about using May as a  power  arm in the 'pen. 

 

Also, if May and Duffey look like solid rotation pieces going forward, do you put Gibby on the block this winter?

[darin617]

Trevor May belongs in the rotation. short & sweet.

[sploorp]

I could never understand why the front office drafts relievers when all the team's successful bullpen guys have been converted starters.  There must be some starters they have their doubts about that they could try out in the pen.  Just a few?

 

Nolasco is the one who can't seem to put up innings.  Put him in the bullpen and see if we can get at least a little value from him.  Maybe he can get a bit more velocity AND make it through a whole season without getting hurt.  That's a lot of money to pay for a bullpen arm, but it's even more to pay for a starter who can't get batters out.

 

On that note, I wouldn't mind them resigning Pelfry if I knew for certain they were going to put him in the bullpen and keep him there.  It seems like he looks pretty decent until the second or third time through the order.  A bullpen gig might start looking pretty good in February if he still hasn't signed with anybody.

[jimmer]

I don't know why anyone would want Pelfrey in the pen.  Guy can't strike people out.  Don't we have enough of that in our bullpen?

Edited August 25, 2015 by jimmer

[jimbo92107]

 

I don't know why anyone would want Pelfrey in the pen.  Guy can't strike people out.  Don't we have enough of that in our bullpen?

Same theory of added velocity. Pelfrey's 92 to 93mph heater plus two mph makes him a mid-90's guy for one or two innings. Combine that with his fork ball, you might have a dominant middle inning reliever.

[jimmer]

 

Same theory of added velocity. Pelfrey's 92 to 93mph heater plus two mph makes him a mid-90's guy for one or two innings. Combine that with his fork ball, you might have a dominant middle inning reliever.

Yeah, except May was already striking out more than 7 per 9 as a starter (the most of any of our starters when demoted).  He was already a K guy. Pelfrey is 88 out of 89 qualifying starter in Ks. The one guy behind him has one less start and 10 less innings pitched and he's only 3 behind him Pelfrey.

Edited August 25, 2015 by jimmer

[woody knows all]

May really struggled to get through 6 innings of MLB batting. I think maybe the Twins have found either a true bullpen specialist or possibly a closer for the next few years.  If they need a starter that would be great, but right now it is pretty crowded.  Trevor and I do hope I am wrong, has never proven at the major league level to be better than a 4th or 5th guy.  Strikeouts great, but also a lot of walks.

[CampQ]

Why does May as starter have more inherent value than May as reliever? That is to say why is the perceived value of starters so much greater than that of relievers (except Mariano Rivera, Matt Capps, and other bullpen gods)? I assert that pitching roles are mere convention and that most excellent relievers would have been what this forum has often projected May to be:a middle of the rotation starter. Nobody ever said on TD that I remember reading that he was a staff ace to be. It seems that we have lots of pitchers in the same class as may.

Caveat: I'm a philistine

[Blackjack]

The Twins have plenty of starters, they need relief help, leave him in the pen thru 2016.

 

By then the 'excess' starters will work themselves out of a job, some of the big relief arms in the minors should be coming up, and hopefully by this time next year hopefully we'll be seriously contending -- May's arm will be needed in the pen.

[Twins7]

Why does May as starter have more inherent value than May as reliever? That is to say why is the perceived value of starters so much greater than that of relievers (except Mariano Rivera, Matt Capps, and other bullpen gods)? I assert that pitching roles are mere convention and that most excellent relievers would have been what this forum has often projected May to be:a middle of the rotation starter. Nobody ever said on TD that I remember reading that he was a staff ace to be. It seems that we have lots of pitchers in the same class as may.

Caveat: I'm a philistine

 

Just pure innings totals... A starter pitches more than double the innings compared to a reliever. Having 2-3 dominant relievers is huge for a team; it can add a bunch of wins in close games. So, I'm in favor of May in the bullpen this year, to provide that lock-down option in the pen here for the stretch. But, if we can get that performance from another option next year (Meyer? Burdi? Jones? Chargois?) May is best for us as a starter. He has the stuff to give us 175 innings at a 3.5 era, which would be huge.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why does May as starter have more inherent value than May as reliever? That is to say why is the perceived value of starters so much greater than that of relievers (except Mariano Rivera, Matt Capps, and other bullpen gods)? I assert that pitching roles are mere convention and that most excellent relievers would have been what this forum has often projected May to be:a middle of the rotation starter. Nobody ever said on TD that I remember reading that he was a staff ace to be. It seems that we have lots of pitchers in the same class as may.
Caveat: I'm a philistine

A good reliever pitches 70 innings.

 

A good starter pitches 210 innings.

 

That's why starters have more inherent value. They spend more time on the field.

 

If May's ceiling was middle of the rotation starter - and let's not diminish that role, it's really valuable to a team - I'd have fewer issues moving him to the pen... but May has looked better than that this season. He could be a fringe #2, very good #3 for several years. A good #2/3 is going to bring 2-4 wins to the team per season... Only a handful of relievers can match that in 70 innings and Trevor May isn't one of them.

[nytwinsfan]

Why can't the Twins put Santana or Hughes in the pen? Is there a rule that if you pay someone more than $10 million a year they can't be a set-up man or middle-inning reliever? Seriously, the money Ryan invested in them is a sunk cost. Play them where they will help the Twins best, and if that means May, Berrios, Duffy, Gibson, and Hughes starting with Santana in the pen, then so be it.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Why does May as starter have more inherent value than May as reliever? That is to say why is the perceived value of starters so much greater than that of relievers (except Mariano Rivera, Matt Capps, and other bullpen gods)? I assert that pitching roles are mere convention and that most excellent relievers would have been what this forum has often projected May to be:a middle of the rotation starter. Nobody ever said on TD that I remember reading that he was a staff ace to be. It seems that we have lots of pitchers in the same class as may.

Caveat: I'm a philistine

If a reliever were used for more innings, you might be right, but relievers rarely have as much value (WAR) as starters, even though they are often used in higher leverage situations. You just pitch many fewer innings when you have to pitch every or every other day.

[Platoon]

May could pitch in next years pen, until a Burdi or Jay comes up. That moves May to the rotation, and by then it will be time to move Milone out or jettison Ricky. By the way, Milone will be back, a little Burdi told me.

[laloesch]

 

May really struggled to get through 6 innings of MLB batting. I think maybe the Twins have found either a true bullpen specialist or possibly a closer for the next few years.  If they need a starter that would be great, but right now it is pretty crowded.  Trevor and I do hope I am wrong, has never proven at the major league level to be better than a 4th or 5th guy.  Strikeouts great, but also a lot of walks.

 

May did not REALLY struggle to get through 6 innings.  He is not a true bullpen specialist or possibly a closer.  He is a starter.  PERIOD.

[kab21]

I think too much is made of this MOR starter is more valuable than an excellent setup guy talk.  The Twins should figure out who there 7 best pitchers are and slot them into 4 starter spots and 3 RP'er spots.

[laloesch]

May will be a starter in 2016.  Pelfrey will be gone at seasons end and Nolasco will spend the rest of the season on the disabled list before the Twins dump him this off season.  The Twins will not pick up Milone's option either. 

 

 

Next season it will be Hughes, Gibson, Santana, May and Duffey /Berrios.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

May really struggled to get through 6 innings of MLB batting. I think maybe the Twins have found either a true bullpen specialist or possibly a closer for the next few years.  If they need a starter that would be great, but right now it is pretty crowded.  Trevor and I do hope I am wrong, has never proven at the major league level to be better than a 4th or 5th guy.  Strikeouts great, but also a lot of walks.

 

His walks/9 are 1.87 this season. Dramatic, career-changing improvement in that area.

[dougkoebernick]

I think it is way too early to throw in the towel on Ervin Santana. History has shown that he will be worth his contract. Here's an interesting link to the salaries of MLB starting pitchers - it's not like Terry Ryan went nuts and started handing out obscene contracts for no reason. 

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/cap-hit/starting-pitcher/

[adjacent]

I guess we have to put Perkins and his neck into the equation. That cortisone shot is just a band-aid to finish the year. If Perkins is not fully healthy next year, May might be needed as a closer. And he has the stuff to be one

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I guess we have to put Perkins and his neck into the equation. That cortisone shot is just a band-aid to finish the year. If Perkins is not fully healthy next year, May might be needed as a closer. And he has the stuff to be one

It'd be better if Molitor had the gumption to remove the closer title from the bullpen entirely and use the pitcher best suited to get a guy out at a crucial time, no matter the inning.

[spinowner]

I'm not going to spend the time to look back, but I'd bet it's very rare for a team to get to the World Series without at least one lefty in the 5-man rotation. (I'm not referring to the WS itself because teams usually go with three starters, or occasionally four.)

[spinowner]

 

It'd be better if Molitor had the gumption to remove the closer title from the bullpen entirely and use the pitcher best suited to get a guy out at a crucial time, no matter the inning.

This point is well taken, but the argument for having a designated closer is that it makes for a better-managed bullpen. Pitchers have a better idea of the type of situations in which they'll be used and adapt to those roles. Not saying which way is better, just saying.

[sorney]

 

I could never understand why the front office drafts relievers when all the team's successful bullpen guys have been converted starters.  There must be some starters they have their doubts about that they could try out in the pen.  Just a few?

 

Nolasco is the one who can't seem to put up innings.  Put him in the bullpen and see if we can get at least a little value from him.  Maybe he can get a bit more velocity AND make it through a whole season without getting hurt.  That's a lot of money to pay for a bullpen arm, but it's even more to pay for a starter who can't get batters out.

 

On that note, I wouldn't mind them resigning Pelfry if I knew for certain they were going to put him in the bullpen and keep him there.  It seems like he looks pretty decent until the second or third time through the order.  A bullpen gig might start looking pretty good in February if he still hasn't signed with anybody.

Drafting relievers - while my initial thought would be to totally agree that it's dumb to draft a bunch of relievers since the best relievers tend to be failed starters, I at least give them credit for trying to turn college relievers into starters since they *supposedly* have less wear and tear on their arms....if nothing else, just to see if they can find a different way to develop starting pitching.  With such a high attrition rate with pitchers, it was at least worth a shot.  Since no other teams seem to be doing it, it's probably not a wise idea (not because others aren't doing it, but because the Twins are rarely out in front in finding new ways to develop talent)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is a fascinating question. If you are a manager would you rather have a starter you can use just once every fifth day, and who is going to surrender an unknown number of runs over an unknown number of innings? Or would you rather have a guy who you can use twice in those five days, on days and innings of your choosing, who you are confident will not allow any runs? 

 

Yet moving from starter to reliever was clearly a demotion in this case. Half the rotation was in line for a demotion before May, but somehow May made the most sense. Maybe pay Trevor May as a starter but use him as a reliever?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This point is well taken, but the argument for having a designated closer is that it makes for a better-managed bullpen. Pitchers have a better idea of the type of situations in which they'll be used and adapt to those roles. Not saying which way is better, just saying.

I understand and appreciate that, but everybody else in the bullpen seems to do fine without having a dedicated role. I don't see why the closer would be any different.

 

I wouldn't use the "closer" in any inning before the eighth on a regular basis but the closer role should be more flexible than it is today.

 

Sometimes, that eighth inning is more crucial than the ninth and the best guy should be out there to handle that situation.

[halfchest]

I do believe May will get one more shot at starting mainly because as people have said he did nothing to pitch himself out of the rotation other than not being a highly paid veteran and no one else pitched themselves out of the rotation.  Had Hughes injury come a bit sooner he likely would have slotted right back into a starting role.

 

It's almost comical that his ERA was starting to come more in line with his advanced metrics like FIP xFIP right before he was demoted.  He had a nice run of four very good starts in June right before the demotion but looking at his splits he actually had better fip and xfip earlier in the year.

 

At this point, it makes sense to keep him in the bullpen for this season which I don't think anyone is questioning.  between Jepsen, May, Perkins, and now Cotts we have an adequate and as we saw last weekend sometimes dominant pen.  While we need our starters to keep it up I'll be happy knowing we have a good shot of keeping a lead after the 6/7th innings.