Article: Maybe Someday I'll Learn

[Seth Stohs]

Following a sweep in New York against the dreaded Yankees, many Twins fans - admittedly myself included - were ready to write off the 2015 season. It was the start of a ten-game road stretch against three teams with playoff hopes remaining. However, after an unlikely four-game sweep in Baltimore, the Twins remain in contention for a wild card berth.It was something that happened frequently in the Ron Gardenhire-led era. When the Twins had a shot at making the playoffs, they played some of their best baseball. Maybe it was that "One-Day-At-A-Time" mantra that Tom Kelly preached. Maybe it was the fire of Gardenhire. Maybe it was having some of the right players on the field for the season's final months.

 

Like many Twins fans, I often get excited and hopeful when things are going well, but when things start to go awry, I'm ready to play the realist. This year, that meant talking about how the Twins weren't really expected to compete yet. They were expected to finish dead last in the American League. 2016 was when this team was supposed to start playing competitive games in August.

 

And then that rough stretch of games out of the All-Star break that moved them from 10 games above .500 to a game below .500. That culminated with that dreadful performance in the Bronx.

 

And yet, baseball is a funny game, and funny things happen. An offense that struggled to score runs began the series in Baltimore with a 15-run performance. After that, they showed a great toughness winning three close games. In fact, instead of being the team whose bullpen was giving up leads late in the game, the Twins were the team overcoming a deficit in the late innings.

 

In fact, the Twins bullpen was terrific in Baltimore. Glen Perkins wasn't available for the first three games of the series, but he pitched on Sunday. Kevin Jepsen was remarkable in that closer's role. Trevor May pitched three straight games for the first time and was absolutely dominant. Even Casey Fien was terrific, returning to the 2013 and 2014 form that made him so good. Adding Neal Cotts to the equation makes the bullpen deeper.

 

The bullpen was a strength in that series and now they get a day off before starting a three-game series with the Rays in St. Petersburg. After that, they head home to play the Houston Astros, another playoff team. It doesn't get easier.

 

What else? This team is being led by some young fellas. Tyler Duffey set the tone for the series with a tremendous performance in Thursday's blowout. He showed Twins fans what he is capable of doing. Miguel Sano continued to bash American League pitching by delivering a couple of home runs in the series and driving in runs. Eddie Rosario continues to impress in left field and came up with some big hits and a big sacrifice fly on Friday. Byron Buxton played great defense. His bat still hasn't come on strong, but he came up with the big, game-winning hit in Saturday's game.

 

Remember the year that the Twins were in contention and Justin Morneau got hurt about as the calendar turned to September? Michael Cuddyer moved onto first base and put up crazy numbers for the final three or four weeks of the season. Maybe this year it will be Miguel Sano who leads the charge? There's no way to know what will happen. Maybe unlikely veterans like Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter will be hot for the final five or six weeks.

 

Will the Twins make the playoffs? I don't know. I don't claim to know. The odds still aren't in their favor. But if there's one thing that I've learned in the last dozen years or so, when the Twins have had a chance, they have stayed resilient.

 

And as we've said many times, with baseball, you just never know what could happen. Might as well enjoy the ride!

 

Click here to view the article

[Shane Wahl]

It is so weird. And while there are some major "what ifs" regarding the bullpen (what if Fien is really back? What if Jepsen basically is the same as Fien? What if Cotts and O'Rourke are used effectively? What if Perkins' bit of rest gets him back), it suddenly looks different. Those five (when used properly) plus May give me a bit of hope there again.

[Craig Arko]

The really scary thing is the strong possibility the Wild Card game will be held in either NY or Toronto. Still, just getting there at all will be quite remarkable.

[Mike Sixel]

I admit I didn't see that sweep coming.......

 

The year has largely been a success to me at this point, still playing meaningful games this late in the year, and probably for much of the next month.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would have been nice to finally slay the Yankee dragon, but following it with a 4 game road sweep in Baltimore is a nice consolation for the moment.

 

It's a weird year -- at times, they seem to fall apart (in Oakland, Toronto, and New York since the break), but each time they've bounced back to win some more, although never quite at a sustained dominant clip so you never know if more wins are forthcoming.  But either way, they've hung in there!

Edited August 24, 2015 by spycake

[twinsnorth49]

It's crazy, I still don't know what to expect every time they take the field. At this point they could go get swept by the Rays and I honestly don't know if I'd be surprised, disappointed yes, but not surprised.

If anything they've been resilient, that's a good thing going into 2016.

[blindeke]

Sano high-fiving Robinson is funny. Do you think he weighs 2X as much?

[Thegrin]

When you follow a team, season after season, good seasons and bad, the small things become a big deal.  We can all be thankful that the Twins have played interesting baseball this year regardless of the results.  And after all ... is results really the only reason we are fans ?  

[troyhobbs]

It's a resilient team that is fun to watch. If Santana doesn't pick it up maybe they should bump him to the pen and get May back in the rotation.  Santana couldn't be used in the playoffs anyway so could behoove them to start stretching out May if they stay in the hunt.

[TheLeviathan]

Say whatever you want about them, but they are a plucky bunch.  They have no business being here and refuse to go away.

 

That's a great thing for our young cornerstones to experience.

[mickeymental]

well, as noted over at the strib site ... twins bullpen in baltimore: 15.2 ip, 4 bb, 16 k, 5 h, 0 r. last week terry ryan was the dumbest guy in town, today he's the smartest. this upcoming week? nobody knows. baseball is a funny game.

[dougkoebernick]

Thank you for posting what I've been thinking - but in a much better way! Go Twins.

[luckylager]

[Loosey]

And just think how happy we would all be if those 2 games in NY didn't end up the way they did.  The Twins easily could have taken 2 of 3 from NYY but whatever witchcraft the Yankees have on the Twins came into effect that series.  If they even win one of those games they would be 5-2 on this road trip and a half game out of WC.

 

But even give the fact we are talking about the playoffs and  saying things lilke "if we had just won that one game" on August 24th is exciting after the previous 4 years.

Edited August 24, 2015 by Loosey

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I want to see what happens when Hicks is back and September call ups are made. I see a team that suddenly has lots of options and match ups that could make an impact.

 

My nomination for impact players down the stretch is a Hicks, Rosario, Buxton outfield that dominates defensively and provides a spark offensively. Moving Hunter into spot starts and pinch hitting duties provides that dangerous bat in late inning situations.

[dxpavelka]

Just need another 5 week run like the one we went on 4 months ago.  Look back 4 months and tell me which team you'd rather have:  That team that went on that monster run or the current team.  4 months ago when we got hot we DID NOT have Sano, Buxton, Hicks (I know, we don't have him now either, but it sounds like he'll be back right at 15 days) or Rosario or Jepson or Duffy or Santana (still think he'll pitch some big games down the stretch).  We still had Danny Santana playing short & Vargas trying to DH.  This team SHOULD be better than the best squad we've put on the field all year and fully capable of playing good enough ball to make a serious run.  Whether or not that will happen nobody knows but at least it could be fun.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is so weird. And while there are some major "what ifs" regarding the bullpen (what if Fien is really back? What if Jepsen basically is the same as Fien? What if Cotts and O'Rourke are used effectively? What if Perkins' bit of rest gets him back), it suddenly looks different. Those five (when used properly) plus May give me a bit of hope there again.

Yeah, while we were all gnashing our teeth over the pen, it's possible it turned into an acceptable pitching unit... Though obviously, it would have been nice to see this happen in mid-July when the Twins were well over .500.

 

I don't have many concerns about the pen any more. I think it'll be good enough to get the job done, though I don't have a lot of faith in it becoming above average any time soon.

[Jham]

 

Just need another 5 week run like the one we went on 4 months ago.  Look back 4 months and tell me which team you'd rather have:  That team that went on that monster run or the current team.  4 months ago when we got hot we DID NOT have Sano, Buxton, Hicks (I know, we don't have him now either, but it sounds like he'll be back right at 15 days) or Rosario or Jepson or Duffy or Santana (still think he'll pitch some big games down the stretch).  We still had Danny Santana playing short & Vargas trying to DH.  This team SHOULD be better than the best squad we've put on the field all year and fully capable of playing good enough ball to make a serious run.  Whether or not that will happen nobody knows but at least it could be fun.   

 

Never thought about it that way...  Would this team beat that team in a 7 game series?  Out of the players that weren't new additions, I can really only say that Zuke, Duensing, Esco, Milone, and maybe May are performing better than earlier this year.  Other than that, pretty much every other player on the team is playing worse, and in Dozier, Pelfrey,  Perk, and Hunter's case,  much worse.  (Mauer's been worse as far as driving in runs, but he has been hitting pretty dreadfully the whole season).  

 

I think I'd take our prior team playing really well over the current team playing poorly plus new guys playing well.  However, I like the potential of this team much MUCH more.

 

*Is Nolasco actually a good player?  ERA 5.51, FIP: 2.82, xFIP 4.00 .9 WAR in only 7 starts (5-1).

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

*Is Nolasco actually a good player?  ERA 5.51, FIP: 2.82, xFIP 4.00 .9 WAR in only 7 starts (5-1).

That's why I don't like fWAR for pitchers, particularly ones like Nolasco, whose real-world results underperform his FIP/xFIP every. frickin'. year.

 

Nolasco has pitched 1500 MLB innings and his FIP/xFIP are .7 runs under his career ERA. At that point, it's not statistical noise... FIP/xFIP are not properly evaluating Nolasco's talent level.

[Jham]

 

That's why I don't like fWAR for pitchers, particularly ones like Nolasco, whose real-world results underperform his FIP/xFIP every. frickin'. year.

 

Nolasco has pitched 1500 MLB innings and his FIP/xFIP are .7 runs under his career ERA. At that point, it's not statistical noise... FIP/xFIP are not properly evaluating Nolasco's talent level.

 

So so true...  Maybe someday I'll learn!

 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, that team was amazingly luck in May......no one consistently beats a team with that much good sequencing luck. But, I think if you look at the talent on the two teams, this one is more talented by quite a bit.

[big dog]

I couldn't even watch the last NY game.  Completely swore off the Twins.  That lasted about 40 hours.  Now I'm back.  Now I'm posting during work again.  I'll probably break into a house to steal something I can pawn so I can buy a Sano jersey before long.  As I told my wife last week, for about the 500th time, it's just stupid how much of my life outlook depends on that most recent Twins score.

 

"Hi, my name's Jeff, and I'm a twinsoholic."

 

(crowd:) <Hi, Jeff>...

 

 

[Blake]

Hah, Seth is worried? I'm on the hook for the White Sox game threads in a week or so. I still have no idea what I'm going to say and the Twins are not making it any easier for me to find the trenchant/pithy commentary needed for my effort.

 

I may pick on the White Sox, but, honestly? Low hanging fruit.

[biscuit]

I'm thinking it might help just a tiny bit if Brian Dozier started getting a hit here and there.  He's been monsterly unwatchable for the last 5 weeks.  Looks like a pattern for him.  Maybe he needs to play only half seasons.

[John Bonnes]

 

The really scary thing is the strong possibility the Wild Card game will be held in either NY or Toronto. Still, just getting there at all will be quite remarkable.

 

And an (unlikely) win in either place would:

a. be unbelievably delicious

b. slay a dragon that could get this team over the hump against both for the next decade

c. be the kind of win that revs us a playoff run.

 

I'm actually really looking forward to this possibility. 

[brvama]

Yes, baseball is a funny game. As difficult as it is after a 4 game sweep of the Orioles, I have to try to temper my enthusiasm because we really don't know what comes next. So, I continue to remind myself, as Mike stated, that this is a successful year and to enjoy it all.

[h2oface]

It is beginning to look like two - or at least one - barely deserving teams may be playing in the wild card play in game. It may as well be our Twins! I found it interesting that Perkins declared that in his warm ups for the all star game he first started feeling his problem. It is when I had suspected. He was getting shelled in the all star game. It was quite a contrast between Perkins and Chapman.

[JB_Iowa]

Like every good ride this one has had uphills and downhills. But not a lot of flat, smooth ride.

[DocBauer]

Seth, while I enjoy everything you write, and being of a like and similar mind I agree with most of what you write, this one of my most favorite offerings you have presented.

 

Being a "Twins-holic" for more than 40 years, it's easy to fall in to traps of disappointment. No offense to anyone here, but when you read articles/posts of shared consternation here on TD at times, it's not hard to slip in to the doldrums of disappointment at times.

 

And while I absolutely do not wish to toot my own horn...which would be silly as I don't have the retrospect of Joshua's success much less the finish to this current season...but I have posted on several occasions as to how much fun I've been having this season as a Twins fan, minus the first 8 games, and even talked a few weeks ago in my "don't worry be happy" post about such.

 

The Twins were, for the first 8 games of the season, just about the worst baseball team I have ever seen. Then they started to play well and win. Then they slipped. Then they got on a nice streak before the all-star game. Then, for whatever reason, they pretty much stunk again. They lost all 3 games against the evil empire in NY, but they SHOULD have two, if not all three. I know there is, in reality, not much to be said for moral victories. There is something evil and maddening in "almost" in sports. But there is also something redeeming in that "almost" that gives you belief.

 

Our Twins may not be as good as they appear at times, but they are also not as bad as they have appeared at times. What and who are they? A rebuilding team in transition who has guts, and talent, and budding talent as well as budding possibility, who are GAMERS in the best sense of the word.

 

How will this season end up? I don't know. But I credit Molitor and his coaching staff...pretty much all former ML players...for a team that keeps on competing and won't give up.

 

As for me....I'm having a blast!!

[theBOMisthebomb]

This is why we play the games. Dream scenario is to sneak into that second WC spot, travel to New York and stun the Yankees in a one game playoff.