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Your worst (and realistic) offseason nightmare


kab21

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Reusse announced last night on Sports Show that Hunter will not be back -  his  decision not Twins.  He wants to play another year, every day, and doesn't want to block Rosario, Buxton, Hicks

 

Best news I've heard today! 

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Reusse announced last night on Sports Show that Hunter will not be back -  his  decision not Twins.  He wants to play another year, every day, and doesn't want to block Rosario, Buxton, Hicks

 

I'm guessing that was just conjecture as I can't find any link to this announcemnt and surely it would be fairly big news.

 

I also find it hard to believe that an active ballplayer who currently is playing everyday would openly speculate that he would not be playing everyday next year.  It seems like common sense to those of us not in the forest, but ballplayers seem to always have blinders on regarding playing time until it actually starts to disappear.

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I'm guessing that was just conjecture as I can't find any link to this announcemnt and surely it would be fairly big news.

 

I also find it hard to believe that an active ballplayer who currently is playing everyday would openly speculate that he would not be playing everyday next year.  It seems like common sense to those of us not in the forest, but ballplayers seem to always have blinders on regarding playing time until it actually starts to disappear.

 

 

It certainly could be just conjecture, but I also wouldn't put it past a guy like Reusse, forever a ball guy, getting an inside scoop like that. Heck, even Lavelle E. Neal and Berardino could know that too and saving it for the inevitable Torii Hunter puff pieces written all throughout September. 

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I'm guessing that was just conjecture as I can't find any link to this announcemnt and surely it would be fairly big news.

 

I also find it hard to believe that an active ballplayer who currently is playing everyday would openly speculate that he would not be playing everyday next year.  It seems like common sense to those of us not in the forest, but ballplayers seem to always have blinders on regarding playing time until it actually starts to disappear.

Yup.

 

For those wondering, "The Sports Show" is a local Sunday night roundtable discussion in which Reusse participates with other local sportswriters.  This was almost certainly just Reusse's conjecture, as a direct on-the-record quote from Torii on the subject would have made Reusse's newspaper column or regular weekday afternoon radio show.

 

Unfortunately I can't watch/listen to confirm anything as the show's web site seems mostly abandoned:

http://sportsshowonline.com/

 

It would be highly unusual for a player to say, at this point in the season, that he's not re-signing with his current team but he's not necessarily retiring either.

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Major injury to Buxton, Sano, or Berrios tops all for me, even more than this catching debacle.

 

1. Such an injury

2. Not trading for a young good catcher

3. Re-signing Hunter

4. Re-signing Pelfrey

5. Re-signing Milone

6. Not trading Plouffe (probably related to 2).

Why would resigning Milone be a nightmare? To me, not resigning Milone is the nightmare scenario.

 

Tommy Milone is under team control through 2018. Letting him walk is the worst kind of asset management: giving away a valuable piece for nothing in return.

 

If you don't want Tommy Milone on the team in 2016, fine... But you trade him during the offseason, you don't let him walk for nothing. Milone has an fWAR of 5.4 in roughly three full seasons of play. While he won't command a big return in trade, he's the type of player you can easily shuffle off to another team for a middling prospect in the low minors.

 

On the topic of Milone, Ryan doesn't get enough credit for pretty soundly winning that trade. Fuld is a decent role player, sure... But Milone is more valuable, controlled for one year longer, and five years younger. Considering how the Twins acquired Fuld in the first place - and that they replaced him with the same player in Shane Robinson using the same process - getting Milone for Fuld was a really savvy move by the front office.

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All these guys traded for mediocre relievers...

 

Kennys Vargas traded to Boston, hits 40+ homers per year for the next 12 years.

Arcia to Cleveland, becomes Nick Swisher 2.0.

Nolasco DFA'd, signs with Angels, wins a Cy Young.

Meyer traded to Washington, wins 15 games, averages 1 walk per 9.

Pelfrey traded to Dodgers, becomes their best setup man.

AB Walker traded to Padres, becomes Chili Davis 2.0.

 

Nightmares don't have to be likely. I remember being chased all over town by a T-Rex when I was a kid. Woke up and thought, "Damn, that would make a great movie."

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Adding another middle of the road pitcher to a 3-4 year deal. I'm OK with taking one on if they can trade someone else, but they can't add to that number.

 

I think best case for C and SS is a veteran on a one year deal to split time with Suzuki.

 

I hope they think a little deeper than just re-signing their veteran free agents, but they at a point where their best move might be to do less.

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This isn't exactly a "nightmare" for me but I would be a little disappointed if we didn't add one more solid bullpen arm. The rest of what we have on the Twins current roster and coming through the minors gets a little more experienced and comes in to next year a little bit improved. Not saying we should do next to nothing to improve. I'm just saying that if we do nothing we will still be an improved squad next year IMO.

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Reusse announced last night on Sports Show that Hunter will not be back -  his  decision not Twins.  He wants to play another year, every day, and doesn't want to block Rosario, Buxton, Hicks

Interesting. That does open up the 4th OF spot for Max Kepler, who can platoon with the other OF's, plus with Mauer at 1B. Actually, that opens up 2 spots, because Kepler is a better version of Robinson.

 

Torii Hunter has worn down a lot this season, and lately his top speed running from home to 2nd looks like what he used to consider jogging speed. He's been getting by in Right with veteran wiles, but when he's got to run down a ball in front of him, it's getting to be a real adventure. Also, his arm at this point is no stronger than Robinson's, which is a big step down, and at the plate he's been struggling to compensate for slower bat speed.

 

Hunter still has great game in his head, but the body is losing steam. One more year maybe, as a platoon OF for somebody, then he's about done.

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Terry Ryan retires from GM but keeps a consultant role within the organization and they hire someone from within.

 

But really, one nightmare for me is they declare May is a full-time member of the bullpen and no longer a starter.  Even though he has been great in the role.  Due to this they do not address bullpen other than the obligatory 34 year old veteran they sign for 2 years and $4 mil.  

 

 

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This isn't exactly a "nightmare" for me but I would be a little disappointed if we didn't add one more solid bullpen arm. The rest of what we have on the Twins current roster and coming through the minors gets a little more experienced and comes in to next year a little bit improved. Not saying we should do next to nothing to improve. I'm just saying that if we do nothing we will still be an improved squad next year IMO.

 

I agree with this too. I don't expect huge changes but it would be nice to add another good bullpen arm.

 

Not a nightmare but I do think there will be one big trade for the Twins this offseason - lots of pieces that could move. 

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You guys are setting yourself up for a lot of disapointment if you think that the Twins are going to get a catcher. They like Suzuki and the pitchers like throwing to him, barring a major injury, in my opinion he'll be the starting catcher next year.  The Twins aren't known for making major trades, and especially won't do it for a position that they think they have filled.

 

They might trade for a better backup or sign a marginal free agent catcher but I think a more likely scenario is Turner or Garver playing themselves into a 50-50% playing time ratio with Suzuki by this time next year. 

I pretty much agree with you, but believe they will find a young major league ready backup so Suzuki can at least get more time off. The following season when Suzuki is gone, Turner should be ready as a backup. If I'm not mistaken, we have 4 picks in the first two rounds of the 2016 draft, so depth may well be addressed at that time.

 

A desperate team would have dealt Polanco, Kepler, or Berrios at the deadline, but listening to TR, he had no interest in dealing even Arcia or Vargas. Right now our favorite team is positioned to go in a lot of different directions.

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Adding another middle of the road pitcher to a 3-4 year deal. I'm OK with taking one on if they can trade someone else, but they can't add to that number.

 

I think best case for C and SS is a veteran on a one year deal to split time with Suzuki.

 

I hope they think a little deeper than just re-signing their veteran free agents, but they at a point where their best move might be to do less.

I was about to write this too, mainly someone like Pierzynski(doesnt have to be him) who will take enough at bats away from Suzuki , so he doesnt automatically vest for 2017.

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I'd be most disappointed if the front office felt like none of our prospects had progressed enough to warrant a legitimate full-time shot at a starting job next year.  I'm not sure if Berrios or Meyer would be enough to bring a legit starter into the fold via trade.  So, they're gonna have to be the staff.  I don't want to see Pelfrey or Nolasco back on this team next year.  Is Polanco ready to be an everyday player?  I hope he can play shortstop because that's our biggest pressing need.   We have to hope that Vargas and Arcia find a rejuvenation similar to what Hicks has found because if not, I wouldn't be against trading them...if the return was what we needed of course.  I know someone above was totally against it but if Berrios and Meyer come along well as starters, would there be something wrong with making May the closer-in-training as Perkins's career winds down?  I mean, the Royals have had pretty good success with 3 fireballers in their pen and all the starters have to do is get to the 6th inning.  I'd love for the Twins to be able to get thru 6 or 7 and have a pair of shutdown closers on the back end.  But overall, if the kids that are coming up from AAA aren't ready for next year, I think it's going to set back the timeline a bit.

 

 

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I'm guessing that was just conjecture as I can't find any link to this announcemnt and surely it would be fairly big news.

 

I also find it hard to believe that an active ballplayer who currently is playing everyday would openly speculate that he would not be playing everyday next year.  It seems like common sense to those of us not in the forest, but ballplayers seem to always have blinders on regarding playing time until it actually starts to disappear.

For the first time I can ever remember, Patrick actually left the set during the program and MMax explained his absence by saying that Pat was working on a scoop.  Pat came back very late in the show and that was his big announcement.

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For the first time I can ever remember, Patrick actually left the set during the program and MMax explained his absence by saying that Pat was working on a scoop. Pat came back very late in the show and that was his big announcement.

Turns out Reusse had a nosebleed, and the Hunter thing is still just a rumor:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/1500ESPN_Reusse/status/635666406181175296

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Turns out Reusse had a nosebleed, and the Hunter thing is still just a rumor:

https://mobile.twitter.com/1500ESPN_Reusse/status/635666406181175296

 

I can't imagine that if Hunter wanted to play next year, he would willingly and openly walk away from a potential suitor when there may be few, if any.  This would make a lot more sense if we also find out that Hunter's camp approached the Twins about an extension and were rebuffed with Ryan citing the reasons that Hunter later tried to play off as his own to Reusse. 

 

"My job here is done.  I've taught the kids everything I know and now I'm leaving for the sake of the future development of the young players and the betterment of the team!" sounds pretty atruistic.

 

http://cowboylands.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/opening-scene-shane.jpeg

 

Shane, come back!

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Not trying to be contrary, but for me it would be letting the Big Pelf walk. He along with Milone have been very solid this year and I am hoping they are both a part of 2016's team.

 

I would love to see Dozier traded for a starting catcher with Rosario sliding to 2b or Polanco taking over 2nd.

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Not trying to be contrary, but for me it would be letting the Big Pelf walk. He along with Milone have been very solid this year and I am hoping they are both a part of 2016's team.

I would love to see Dozier traded for a starting catcher with Rosario sliding to 2b or Polanco taking over 2nd.

 

As much as I have appreciated Pelfrey's season....he has pitched nearly a full run better than his xFIP and much of his success has been based on him giving up less HR and less HR/9 than he has in his career.  He will be 32 in the offseason and pretty much his last chance to get a multi- year deal.  It would very disheartening to see him come back on a 3 year deal with the veterans the Twins already have, as well as they young guys who very much shot be in the running for a spot.

 

I would hate to see Dozier lead.  He's locked up, becoming a fan favorite, both and the emotion he shows is unmatched by anyone on the team, at least IMO.

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Trading Dozier would be very disappointing since it would be a signal that the team prefers to stay in a continual rebuilding mode.  This would not be a terrible move if you do it when you are in an obvious tear it down rebuild mode but the Twins aren't at that spot.

 

One of my worst nightmares is that the Twins trade Kepler, Plouffe or someone else because of perceived depth for whatever they can get at C, SS or RP (NO!).  This is an almost guaranteed way to lose the trade.

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Smoked carp fish tacos

Palm trees in CF

Replacing the Budweiser deck with Mystery Beer Night.

 

Actually, I kind of like that third idea!

 

But seriously....

 

*Doing nothing at catcher.

*Re-signing Pelfrey for just about any reason. (OK, I won't snap completely if it's for the pen)

*Signing another mid-rotation starter to eat up innings and create depth. (Which might...SHUDDER...keep May in the bullpen)

*Going status quo with the bullpen

*TR reading too much Twins Daily, has a mid-life/late career crisis and decides to become the next Trader Jack or Billy Beane because he just must. Because that's what GM's do when their team is sooo close.

 

No...seriously...this team is really moving in the right direction. It needs to be supplemented here and there, but that's it. About the worst thing that could be done is become reactionary and try to do TOO MUCH.

 

What do I think is realistic to expect?

 

*One nice veteran RHRP to work with Jepsen for the 8th inning. (Please don't let TR get complacent)

*One nice veteran bat...switch is the dream but will settle for LH...to PH, occassionally DH or take the field every 5th-7th day, and provide leadership. Thome-lite but with better wheels???

*Flyer on another LHRP option, on the cheap.

*Investigate trade options for a young catcher. Find everyone asks/demands too much, and signs a veteran to joint Suzuki and create some sort of platoon/quasi-platoon.

 

Nightmare and reasonable expectation.

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So many nightmare scenarios include not upgrading the catcher position.  The reality is there are just not that many great catchers out there.  How much would it be worth to go from a below average catcher like Suzuki to an average catcher? Willing to give up multiple prospects?

 

Kurt Suzuki's line this year: .238/.293/.313.  65 wRC+

 

These two have been discussed a lot of the boards this year.

 

.241/.310/.347  78 wRC+ 

 

.237/.269/.360  70 wRC+

 

Both are better defenders and have thrown out about 10% more runners this season.  

 

I know both of these guys are having very down years, but when taking out the names and just looking at numbers, it's pretty telling.  This season unless you have one of a small handful of catchers you pretty much have an average-below average backstop.

 

 

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My biggest nightmare would be Terry Ryan not replaced as GM. I guess you would call that a recurring nightmare........ At least my recurring nightmare of Gardenhire/Anderson ended this year!

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