Trea Turner Promoted

[Too Much Twins]

Does this make anyone else who follows the drafts feel a little queasy? I'm not typically one for petty grumbles here. Just makes me sick knowing how much better I'd sleep at night if we could pencil in Turner for at least adequate SS play for the next few years. And I'm relatively high on Gordon; I just don't expect any realistic contributions for at least 3+ years.

 

Turner was thought of as a top 5 pick heading into draft season, but had some leg injuries (one of his best tools is speed) and an up and down draft year. I still was pulling for him and was quite surprised when he fell to 13. 

[nicksaviking]

There were a lot of Turner proponents here. I wish I could say I was one of them. I listened to the late spring scouting reports that questioned if his swing would cause him to be a below average hitter even though he hit like few others in college, and I listened to the later reports that even questioned his glove.

 

He sure seems like a guy where over thinking the process was a dumb move. Or if you're into conspiracies, a situation where anonymous scouting reports were used to tank his value. I'm not into conspiracies though.

[bluechipper]

Looking back, I'm a bit disappointed in the pick, but at the time of draft I was concerned with the relatively low ceiling that Turner had. He looks like he could be a .270 hitter with a lot of speed, and hopefully Nick Gordon can turn into the same type of player at the higher levels; it's just going to take an extra 2 to 3 years.

[drock2190]

Meh its whatever.

 

Remember Gordon Beckham? Man, he was something else for that 1st year but is trash ever since.

[twinsfanstreif]

I was a big Turner proponent early on but as time went on he looked more and more like Levi Michael, there was always an upside with him but there was some risk involved as well. Let's not forget that Gordon has some really good long term value and we always knew it was gonna take some time with him. Up to the draft I moved off of Turner and on to Nola, That would have also been a good pick but in the end Gordon might end up being better than both. Think of the 2012 draft, Zunino, Gausman, and Wacha all made it up quick, while they are all decent no one would argue that Correa and Buxton were better picks, I even think Giolito might be better in the long run. Give it some time

[jimmer]

I was always high on Turner.  I was hoping that if we were going middle IF, it should have been Turner. Look forward to seeing how he does in the same way I wanted Brandon Crawford, who took awhile in the majors to become a very good one.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I was a big Turner proponent early on but as time went on he looked more and more like Levi Michael, there was always an upside with him but there was some risk involved as well. Let's not forget that Gordon has some really good long term value and we always knew it was gonna take some time with him. Up to the draft I moved off of Turner and on to Nola, That would have also been a good pick but in the end Gordon might end up being better than both. Think of the 2012 draft, Zunino, Gausman, and Wacha all made it up quick, while they are all decent no one would argue that Correa and Buxton were better picks, I even think Giolito might be better in the long run. Give it some time

 

It's not just about the long term though, right? Turner is probably going to provide value the next two years, while Buxton and Sano are here.....there is value in that.

 

I predicted Gordon, and liked (still do) the pick. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be nice to have the current value from Turner (assuming he provides it).

[James]

Turner looks like he could possibly provide some value right now, giving the assumption that he would have developed into the same player had he been in the Twins system the entire time.  There's really no way to know that part for sure. 

 

Let's assume he would have developed into the same player.  He would probably be a nice piece at SS for the Twins right now.  But I don't think you can judge the entire draft just because he made it to the big league team quickly.  It could be that Gordon turns out to be a much better SS, possibly a better player overall.  I don't think you can say the Twins picked the wrong player until we see how things turn out.  It could end up being that Turner was the best player of the draft, which would mean that 11 other teams besides the Twins picked the wrong player, and San Diego screwed up by trading him to Washington.  We'll just have to see how things play out. 

[Willihammer]

Pre-draft favorites change every year. Turner was always a "speed" and "gap power" guy which is a low ceiling for #5 IMO and coupled with a leg injury I was glad the Twins passed on him. You have to draft for BPA, not need, esp. at 5.

 

It is interesting to look back though. 2014 was thought to be a strong HS pitching class but the early returns suggest that the college arms (Nola, Freeland, Newcomb) and college bats (Schwarber, Zimmer, Conforto, Gillaspie) were stronger. Aiken, Kolek, and Touki have basically been busts so far while Holmes is looking like the only real HS arm to improve his stock unless I'm missing someone. FWIW I would have taken Kolek, Touki, Holmes, Freeland in that order.

[biggentleben]

 

Pre-draft favorites change every year. Turner was always a "speed" and "gap power" guy which is a low ceiling for #5 IMO and coupled with a leg injury I was glad the Twins passed on him. You have to draft for BPA, not need, esp. at 5.

 

It is interesting to look back though. 2014 was thought to be a strong HS pitching class but the early returns suggest that the college arms (Nola, Freeland, Newcomb) and college bats (Schwarber, Zimmer, Conforto, Gillaspie) were stronger. Aiken, Kolek, and Touki have basically been busts so far while Holmes is looking like the only real HS arm to improve his stock unless I'm missing someone. FWIW I would have taken Kolek, Touki, Holmes, Freeland in that order.

 

I guess I wouldn't consider Touki a bust, consider that homerism if you'd like, but watching nearly every one of his starts since he was traded has really shown an incredible amount of talent.

[jimbo92107]

 

Aiken, Kolek, and Touki have basically been busts so far while Holmes is looking like the only real HS arm to improve his stock unless I'm missing someone. FWIW I would have taken Kolek, Touki, Holmes, Freeland in that order.

A bit early to declare Kolek a bust.

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150720&content_id=137643248&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

Kolek is 19 now, was drafted based solely on his 100mph high school heater. It takes years for some guys to transition from thrower to pitcher, especially when they grew up blowing the ball by everybody. Now he's got to learn better command of the fastball, plus other decent pitches to mix in. He's in a position similar to our own HS phenom, Kohl Stewart. Both were drafted for their natural talents. Now, they have to build themselves into professional pitchers.

[Willihammer]

I love off days.

[blairpaul715]

 

I love off days.

When we are winning, NOT ME!!!!!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But I don't think you can judge the entire draft just because he made it to the big league team quickly.  It could be that Gordon turns out to be a much better SS, possibly a better player overall. 

Yes, this. I care less about the "when" than the "how".

 

Whoever turns out to be the better player was the right choice. Given how controlled years are fixed, I don't really care if those years come in 2015 or 2018, only that those years are quality.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, this. I care less about the "when" than the "how".

 

Whoever turns out to be the better player was the right choice. Given how controlled years are fixed, I don't really care if those years come in 2015 or 2018, only that those years are quality.

 

You might care if Sano and Buxton aren't here when Gordon is in his prime........there is more certainty in the present than the distant future, as you know.....

[James]

 

You might care if Sano and Buxton aren't here when Gordon is in his prime........there is more certainty in the present than the distant future, as you know.....

If Sano and Buxton turn out to be the players everyone thinks they will be, I would hope that the Twins would be getting them to sign an extension.  If Gordon is up by 2018, Sano and Buxton should still be under team control and with the team anyway.  

 

You're right.  I'd like to see Gordon have productive years with the big league club while Sano and Buxton are with the team.  I'd also rather have a constant flow of good players on the team, even if some of them leave for free agency as well.  It's a tough call to make, but I feel like drafting the best player available is generally the best call.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You might care if Sano and Buxton aren't here when Gordon is in his prime........there is more certainty in the present than the distant future, as you know.....

The 2018-2022 Twins will also need good players. If a player is good enough, there's always room for him on a team.

 

Draft the player you feel is going to bring the most to the field and call it a day. Don't try to get cute with attempting to project needs 24+ months into the future or worry about when a player will hit the field at the detriment of how good he'll be when he gets there.

 

It'd be nice to have Turner on the 2015 Twins but in 2019, there's a decent chance we'll be happier to see Gordon on the field. Time will tell.

 

The last time the Twins appeared to draft for need was Levi Michael. That... was a mistake. Though in defense of the Twins, no one drafted after him in the first or supplemental round has had a positive impact on their respective MLB clubs.

[Mike Sixel]

Where did I say change the draft strategy.....I said you might care if one is here next year and the next year and the next year as much or more than you care about a year where you might be dead, or Sano might be hurt, or whatever.

[TheLeviathan]

Do the Nats really know why the hell they called him up?

 

Talk about an organizational dumpster fire right now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do the Nats really know why the hell they called him up?

 

Talk about an organizational dumpster fire right now.

 

There was discussion they might call him up a month ago, so it isn't JUST that they are a dumpster fire right now......

 

Gardy should be their manager next year.....

[biggentleben]

 

There was discussion they might call him up a month ago, so it isn't JUST that they are a dumpster fire right now......

 

Gardy should be their manager next year.....

 

There was a discussion when Ian Desmond was hitting sub-.200, but he's been the hottest hitting shortstop in all of baseball for about 6 weeks, so that doesn't work - and the crazy thing is that his mediocre defense has been grading out at above average in that same time. Turner is expected to provide just below elite defense at the position, so he'd still likely be an upgrade, but then does Desmond's bat respond the same way if he's moved off of short?

[James]

 

Where did I say change the draft strategy.....I said you might care if one is here next year and the next year and the next year as much or more than you care about a year where you might be dead, or Sano might be hurt, or whatever.

You're right.  You never did call for a change in draft strategy, so we shouldn't imply that you were doing that.  

 

I'd say though, that it is probably just as likely that Sano could be hurt next year rather that a few years from now Gordon might be up.  Sure, Sano will be older, but he still should be pretty much in his athletic prime, so I don't think there is a huge risk either way.  

 

Would I like to have Turner right now?  Possibly.  It would help out with the current SS situation.  Would I rather have Turner than Gordon? I don't know about that.  Who knows, Gordon might really click and end up on the super fast track to the majors.  There are just so many unknowns.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's a bit unfortunate Gordon took time to adjust to low A ball. Since July 1st, his OPS is around .790.

 

It would have been nice to see him get a few reps in Ft. Myers before the end of the season and potentially make 2016 a two-level season. There's still a chance of that happening, though.

 

Maybe most importantly, we've seen his extra base power manifest a little since early in the season.

 

April-June: 11 XBH, 66 games

 

July-August: 16 XBH, 43 games

[Willihammer]

 

Comment From What do you make of Trea Turners ability to hit .300 in the minors. His BABIP was really high and he strikes out too much to do that in the pross right?

Trea Turner or JP Crawford?

11:31 

Kiley McDaniel: Crawford: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Turner has always been a contact guy that projects for .270 or so on talent, but his speed could allow the BABIP to play the average up a bit higher. Ideally, the K rate is below 20% and the BABIP is around .320 in the big leagues, but I’d say look for .250 or .260 in the early going with a few too many K’s.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're right.  You never did call for a change in draft strategy, so we shouldn't imply that you were doing that.  

 

I'd say though, that it is probably just as likely that Sano could be hurt next year rather that a few years from now Gordon might be up.  Sure, Sano will be older, but he still should be pretty much in his athletic prime, so I don't think there is a huge risk either way.  

 

Would I like to have Turner right now?  Possibly.  It would help out with the current SS situation.  Would I rather have Turner than Gordon? I don't know about that.  Who knows, Gordon might really click and end up on the super fast track to the majors.  There are just so many unknowns.  

 

All good points, especially that last sentence!