Article: Twins Acquire LHP Neal Cotts from Brewers

[Brock Beauchamp]

It can be both later than we'd have liked and still a fine move now.

Yeah, this. It's a fine move but it irritates me Ryan didn't start patching the pen in early July.

[Mike Sixel]

It is odd, to me, because it is weeks later than it should be. I still think this is about the injury, not thinking the pen is bad. Otherwise the logic is a bit off.

[spinowner]

 

88 wins is the lowest amount a team has gotten through with as a wild card since they started sending two from each league. That would require the Twins going 27-13 the rest of the way. Anybody think that's happening? Cotts is an improvement over Duensing (if that's even who they plan on replacing) but this team isn't playing nearly.700 baseball for 40 games.

 

 

Well, the Angels are on pace to claim that spot with only 83.5 wins, so it is possible we won't need 88.

I'd be surprised if there's been a season with more parity than this year's AL. There are currently 12 teams that are within 5.5 games of the postseason and 14 within 7. I'd love to see about a 6-way tie for the final wild card spot just to watch the powers that be pull out their hair dealing with how difficult that makes the postseason schedule. Can you imagine how much spin the commissioner's office would have to generate for night games in the north in November? Wonder if Rob Manfred would do a Bowie Kuhn and wear shirt sleeves in 40-degree weather?

[Winston Smith]

I think they DFA Mauer and Hunter, add Cotts and bring Everyday Eddie out of retirement going with a 15 man pitching staff.

[spinowner]

Has anyone found out who was dropped from the 40-man?

[USAFChief]

I'd be surprised if there's been a season with more parity than this year's AL. There are currently 12 teams that are within 5.5 games of the postseason and 14 within 7. I'd love to see about a 6-way tie for the final wild card spot just to watch the powers that be pull out their hair dealing with how difficult that makes the postseason schedule. Can you imagine how much spin the commissioner's office would have to generate for night games in the north in November? Wonder if Rob Manfred would do a Bowie Kuhn and wear shirt sleeves in 40-degree weather?

I think the "powers that be" would be OK with that scenario. In fact, I think they'd welcome it.

[USAFChief]

It can be both later than we'd have liked and still a fine move now.

Concur.

[Riverbrian]

 

It can be both later than we'd have liked and still a fine move now.

 

Perfectly Put Levi.

 

Thank God someone is coming. 

 

It's like Dinner at 9PM... Too Bad it wasn't at 6PM but I'm absolutely starving now so Thank You!!!

[Danchat]

 

Has anyone found out who was dropped from the 40-man?

We had an open spot after DFA'ing Fryer.

[bird]

 

Which young guys got experience recently? Achter and O'Rourke are both about 27 years old, and could have gotten that experience earlier in the year. Graham has been getting experience all year, as has May.
 

 

But which young guys would you have called up from AAA or AA, for either the purpose of getting them experience or winning an extra 2-3 games?  I can't think of a single reliever down there that performed well enough to warrant a call-up (Burdi/Reed/Jones?) or who wasn't given a shot (Meyer/Tonkin?), other than perhaps Berrios.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I was being a little sarcastic. And I agree.

 

But, it ain't over 'til it's over ... but whatever at this point.

Their odds after two wins has risen to 5%, so let's get our irrational hopes right!

 

Also, right now, the Orioles odds of making the WC are 18.5, so if the Twins beat them today and tomorrow, my god the baseball world will be on edge!

Edited August 22, 2015 by ScrapTheNickname

[Dantes929]

 

88 wins is the lowest amount a team has gotten through with as a wild card since they started sending two from each league. That would require the Twins going 27-13 the rest of the way. Anybody think that's happening? Cotts is an improvement over Duensing (if that's even who they plan on replacing) but this team isn't playing nearly.700 baseball for 40 games.

First of all the Twins played .741 baseball in May so there is some reason to think it is in the realm of realistic possibility especially since we now have Sano and Buxton and whatever help we might get from Jepsen, Cotts and maybe Berrios.    There is more talent on the field.    Secondly, there is no telling what it will take just based on short recent history.    I am ok if they win 25 or even 24 and take my chances.    Do I think it will happen.   Probably not but I am guessing most teams that have played .700 ball for 40 games did not think it would happen before it did.      Beat the Orioles tonight would be a good start..   

[Otto von Ballpark]

It can be both later than we'd have liked and still a fine move now.

Agreed, better late than never. Although it does feel like they are still misjudging the pen, if this is primarily a reaction to Perkins.

[Nakathome Plaza]

But which young guys would you have called up from AAA or AA, for either the purpose of getting them experience or winning an extra 2-3 games?  I can't think of a single reliever down there that performed well enough to warrant a call-up (Burdi/Reed/Jones?) or who wasn't given a shot (Meyer/Tonkin?), other than perhaps Berrios.

Taylor Rogers,

Lester Oliveros,

Mark Hamburger,

Pat Dean,

Cole Johnson,

Brandon Peterson

[Dantes929]

 

Their adds after two wins has risen to 5%, so let's get our irrational hopes right!

I see baseball prospectus has them at 6%.         Their odds of making the playoffs are about 10 times greater than the 87 team had of winning the WS.   Probably not going to happen but would be a lot of fun if it did and the chances are why I watch.    If it was 100% I wouldn't bother.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But which young guys would you have called up from AAA or AA, for either the purpose of getting them experience or winning an extra 2-3 games? I can't think of a single reliever down there that performed well enough to warrant a call-up (Burdi/Reed/Jones?) or who wasn't given a shot (Meyer/Tonkin?), other than perhaps Berrios.

Think we are talking about different things. I was responding to a post that suggested our delayed bullpen trades meant some young guys got experience in the meantime. I don't think that happened, thus there was no benefit to delaying these bullpen acquisitions.

[spinowner]

 

But which young guys would you have called up from AAA or AA, for either the purpose of getting them experience or winning an extra 2-3 games?  I can't think of a single reliever down there that performed well enough to warrant a call-up (Burdi/Reed/Jones?) or who wasn't given a shot (Meyer/Tonkin?), other than perhaps Berrios.

 

 

Taylor Rogers,
Lester Oliveros,
Mark Hamburger,
Pat Dean,
Cole Johnson,
Brandon Peterson

None of those players is on the 40-man, nor is Berrios. While there are a few players on the 40-man that I think we can say goodbye to during the off-season I'd be hesitant to do that now.

[sploorp]

 

88 wins is the lowest amount a team has gotten through with as a wild card since they started sending two from each league. That would require the Twins going 27-13 the rest of the way. Anybody think that's happening? Cotts is an improvement over Duensing (if that's even who they plan on replacing) but this team isn't playing nearly.700 baseball for 40 games.

They won't have to go 27-13.  They are only 2 1/2 games behind the Angels and play a three game series with them at Target field.  All they have to do is kick the crap out of the Angels at Target Field and play decent ball in the others.

[Otto von Ballpark]

None of those players is on the 40-man, nor is Berrios. While there are a few players on the 40-man that I think we can say goodbye to during the off-season I'd be hesitant to do that now.

You'd be hesitant to drop Aaron Thompson from the 40-man right now? Any particular reason?

[stringer bell]

 

They won't have to go 27-13.  They are only 2 1/2 games behind the Angels and play a three game series with them at Target field.  All they have to do is kick the crap out of the Angels at Target Field and play decent ball in the others.

Two back of the Angels with four at TF in September. They are tied with Tampa, 1.5 behind Baltimore and Texas. That is a lot of teams to wade through, but doable.

[Thrylos]

He missed from half of 2009 to half of 2012 not only because of Tommy John surgery (that healed pretty well actually and signed with the Pirates in 2010,) but 4 (FOUR!) leg and hip surgeries, including some nasty staph infections.  And he became a different pitcher when he pitched with the Rangers, than previously.  I took a look at the teams the Twins play and their record against Cotts.  (That and a lot of additional analysis, including his health issues is here.)  

 

My bottom line rating of this trade, from there, taking into consideration a lot of factors is:

 

Not sure what this trade was about, other maybe for Terry Ryan to be able to say that he did something.  The Twins clearly have better internal options, including the departed AJ Achter who has held opposing RHBs to a .176/.176/.353   line.   Depending on who the player to be named later is, this trade can be rated from "Blah" to a "Disaster", and really does nothing for the Twins in their pursuit of a wild card spot.

[Danchat]

 

He missed from half of 2009 to half of 2012 not only because of Tommy John surgery (that healed pretty well actually and signed with the Pirates in 2010,) but 4 (FOUR!) leg and hip surgeries, including some nasty staph infections.  And he became a different pitcher when he pitched with the Rangers, than previously.  I took a look at the teams the Twins play and their record against Cotts.  (That and a lot of additional analysis, including his health issues is here.)  

 

My bottom line rating of this trade, from there, taking into consideration a lot of factors is:

 

Not sure what this trade was about, other maybe for Terry Ryan to be able to say that he did something.  The Twins clearly have better internal options, including the departed AJ Achter who has held opposing RHBs to a .176/.176/.353   line.   Depending on who the player to be named later is, this trade can be rated from "Blah" to a "Disaster", and really does nothing for the Twins in their pursuit of a wild card spot.

It's pretty clear now that TR does not think any of our guys at AAA are realistic options. The Twins have to use veteran-only pitchers like Jepsen, Cotts, Duensing, and Fien. 

 

Achter and Tonkin need to be given more chances and more rope. It seemed whenever Boyer, Duensing, and Fien struggled, they were clearly on a long leash and were given every single oppurtunity (and more) to rebound. When a young pitcher struggles here, they get yanked immediately, it seems. (Meyer, Thielbar, Achter, Tonkin) 

 

With all of that said, I'm still happy we made this trade. It's just too late - this move should have happened in July, not in late August.

 

I was hoping the Twins would discover some future solutions in the bullpen this season - but we haven't. The only positives I see here are Pressly (let's hope his injury won't affect how well he threw) and May (he really should go back to the rotation in '16).  So since the Twins didn't really find any new relievers this season, it looks like TR will return to his dumpster diving in the offseason and find his new Boyer, Stauffer, Roenicke, Gray, or heck, even re-sign Neal Cotts.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

They won't have to go 27-13.  They are only 2 1/2 games behind the Angels and play a three game series with them at Target field.  All they have to do is kick the crap out of the Angels at Target Field and play decent ball in the others.

I think a 86-76 record will easily make the second wild card spot. To do that the Twins would need to go 25-15. (.625).

 

With each loss the possibility of such a scenario shrinks substantially at this point in the season, of course. It would be like a walk home grand slam in the 9th when you were down by 7. It can be done, but rarely is.

[bird]

 

Taylor Rogers,
Lester Oliveros,
Mark Hamburger,
Pat Dean,
Cole Johnson,
Brandon Peterson

 

First, let's eliminate the old, the injured, the mediocre, and the guys who started in A-ball. That leaves Taylor Rogers, who has been mediocre at best recently. This is not a list of prospects who would have added a win, and most would have added a loss or three.

Edited August 22, 2015 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

Think we are talking about different things. I was responding to a post that suggested our delayed bullpen trades meant some young guys got experience in the meantime. I don't think that happened, thus there was no benefit to delaying these bullpen acquisitions.

 

 

Ah, you're right about that.

[Thrylos]

 

I was hoping the Twins would discover some future solutions in the bullpen this season - but we haven't. The only positives I see here are Pressly (let's hope his injury won't affect how well he threw) and May (he really should go back to the rotation in '16).  So since the Twins didn't really find any new relievers this season, it looks like TR will return to his dumpster diving in the offseason and find his new Boyer, Stauffer, Roenicke, Gray, or heck, even re-sign Neal Cotts.

 

I hope that TR is not with the Twins come the next off-season.

 

The Twins can and should be creative with their bullpen.  I would argue that they can sign one free agent starter (Zimmerman) and one free agent reliever (Soria) and have the best bullpen in the majors, and a pretty darn good rotation.  How?  

 

They need to realize that they have a guy with 2.06 ERA, 0.971, and 70K in 56.7 IP as a reliever starting for them.  They should make Phil Hughes their closer, have Soria and Perkins as the set up men and Jepsen and Pressly and O'Rourke (as their lefty specialist) and that makes for a darn nice pen. 

 

Zimmerman, May, Gibson, Nolasco, Santana (if they cannot trade those 2, and if they can, insert Berrios and Meyer.)    Heck, you might not want to go after Zimmerman and replace him with Berrios or Meyer, and still be alright.  And Duffey at the wings...

 

2 players or even a single player, and a bit thinking outside the box, all it will take.   And keep the likes of Milone and the rest away.

But this front office and thinking outside the box, do not belong in the same sentence...

[Reider]

I don't understand the "it's too late" crowd. The Twins are 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with 40 games to go. It's not "too late" to make the playoffs! Of course, the move could have happened sooner, but it was still a good move!

[drjim]

 

Think we are talking about different things. I was responding to a post that suggested our delayed bullpen trades meant some young guys got experience in the meantime. I don't think that happened, thus there was no benefit to delaying these bullpen acquisitions.

 

Other than no bullpen guys (of consequence)* moved until the week before the deadline. There was no benefit to delaying the acquisitions, but no opportunity either.

 

I think they were a bullpen arm acquisition short at the deadline but to say they should have acquired a bullpen guy in May or June doesn't take into account how the trade market works.

 

*The best guy traded was David Carpenter - really no better than Blaine Boyer.

[Platoon]

Well, the Angels are on pace to claim that spot with only 83.5 wins, so it is possible we won't need 88.

The problem isn't how many games back, currently 2.0 per the Trib, it's that there are 4 teams in front of them. Angels, Baltimore, Texas and Tampa Bay. That means if you're going to play mediocre baseball, like 83.5 baseball, you need all 4 to also play mediocre baseball. One sneaky team going out on a hot streak, and you are toast. It doesn't mean the Twins can't/won't win the WC, it just makes the odds infinitesimally smaller!

[Thrylos]

 

The problem isn't how many games back, currently 2.0 per the Trib, it's that there are 4 teams in front of them. Angels, Baltimore, Texas and Tampa Bay. That means if you're going to play mediocre baseball, like 83.5 baseball, you need all 4 to also play mediocre baseball. One sneaky team going out on a hot streak, and you are toast. It doesn't mean the Twins can't/won't win the WC, it just makes the odds infinitesimally smaller!

 

Interestingly enough, the Twins have games with each of those teams.  The Rays are tied with the Twins and the other 3 are tied for the second WC sport with 2 games (in the L column) ahead of the Twins.  

 

Toronto is 6 and the Yankees 7 games ahead of the Twins (one in the lead of the East and the other leading the WC race; those opportunities were swept away.)

Edited August 22, 2015 by Thrylos