Ichiro chasing 3000 hits

[2wins87]

Everyone loves a good milestone chase, and everyone should love Ichiro Suzuki too.

 

For several years now we've been able to speculate on the rest of Ichiro's career and project him somewhere very close to 3000 hits.  It's never seemed clear cut either way which is fun.  At the end of July, however, it was not looking good.  He was sitting at 2901 hits, but was batting under .250 with only 57 hits on the year.  It seemed probable that it would take him another 2 seasons to reach 3000, and his performance didn't make it likely that many teams would be interested in having him on their roster next year.

 

But August has been different.  August has been vintage Ichiro.  He's already collected 20 hits while hitting at a .351 clip.  Right now he stands at 2921 career hits and I'd say it looks pretty probable that he'll get to 3000.

 

Here's my math:

I'll assume that Ichiro stays pretty hot for the rest of the season.  The Marlins will play him pretty often for the rest of August so he should have no problem getting 25-35 more at bats before rosters expand on September 1st.  After that his playing time will probably drop off a bit, but if he's still hitting well he should still get 40-50 more at bats.  If he finishes the final month+ hitting .300 and gets 80 more at bats he'll have 2945 hits at the end of the year.  If he plays another year hitting around .270, he'll only need to get a bit over 200 ABs to reach 3000 hits.  His overall line this year should be good enough that some team is willing to sign him next year and play him enough to get there; maybe the Marlins, maybe the Mariners, maybe someone else.

 

It's still not a sure thing, but I'd put the odds at around 80% now, maybe even a little higher.  Do you think he'll get to 3000?  

[nicksaviking]

I thought Johnny Damon was going to be a lock to get it after being less than 300 hits away coming off his age 37 season in which he still had a .743 OPS.  He wanted stupid money though the following year and didn't catch on until after the season started.  He was rusty, and it was over.

 

For Ichiro, it seems like getting to 3000 is his goal.  And while it doesn't seem that teams actually do sign players just for the milestone publicity, Ichiro might be different.  I don't know if his Japanese fan base is just as rabid as in his hayday, I suspect it is much, much less, but I'll bet his country starts paying a lot of attention when he approaches the goal.  Some team is going to buy into that.  Should be the Mariners. 

[James]

 

I thought Johnny Damon was going to be a lock to get it after being less than 300 hits away coming off his age 37 season in which he still had a .743 OPS.  He wanted stupid money though the following year and didn't catch on until after the season started.  He was rusty, and it was over.

 

For Ichiro, it seems like getting to 3000 is his goal.  And while it doesn't seem that teams actually do sign players just for the milestone publicity, Ichiro might be different.  I don't know if his Japanese fan base is just as rabid as in his hayday, I suspect it is much, much less, but I'll bet his country starts paying a lot of attention when he approaches the goal.  Some team is going to buy into that.  Should be the Mariners. 

I think someone will sign next year for sure, and I think he will end up getting to 3000 hits.  I hope he does.  He's still good enough to get some at bats, and he hasn't been holding out for more money.  I think he just wants to play baseball.

 

As far as his Japanese fanbase, I can't comment on it for sure.  But, I was in Japan in 2010 and Ichiro was all over the place.  TV commercials, posters, etc.   He was still a giant star over there.  He was still playing pretty well at that point though.  There was even a point when I was asked if I knew any Japanese sports stars by some school children.  When I said "Ichiro" they all got incredibly excited.  These kids were definitely not old enough to remember seeing him play in Japan.  I don't know if he still draws the TV ratings from Japan that he once did, but I have a feeling that he's still a big name there.