Article: Are The Twins Drowning In Bad Contracts?

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Also frustrating is when you commit to three #3/#4/starting to look back of the rotation guys for 10+ million each, you could just spend 20 million/year on an ace type pitcher and hope you scrounge a Tommy Milone type player to fill out the rotation. We lucked out on that one. Milone is not dazzling but his numbers are very similar to our 12 million dollar prize free agent arms. Plus, by avoiding committing to the free agent crap shoot, you don't switch May to bullpen since he has the best K rate by far and he's young and could develop into a legit pitcher. Maybe you spend some of that money on bullpen help since that has proved to be a huge hole down the stretch and easily predicted with the scrap heaps of arms we cart out there.

 

This year was going to be tough since our best prospects Berrios and Duffey were not ready, although they are starting to seem ready now, late season.  Going forward I'd like to see Berrios, Duffey, May, Gibson, and whoever between Pelfrey and Hughes is sucking less at the time rather than the supposed "#3" arms Nolasco and Santana. The Twins will probably continue to maroon their most talented arm May in the bullpen they so woefully neglected.

 

Probably the reason for the dearth of farm system talent for starters over the past decade or so has a lot to do with the Twins maddening preference for control type guys with weak stuff but low walk rates. I'm fine with a guy or two like that on the staff but a whole staff of low K rate dudes is doomed to fail.  They also inexplicably have wasted a lot of high picks on college relievers. None have panned out that I recall.  They had some honest bad luck, too, but their strategy invited it since converting relivers to starters is a dicey propositon for a high pick and picking guys with average stuff in the first place lowers their ceiling.

 

Nice first post, welcome aboard.

[Doug T]

 

The reasons that Hughes, Nolasco,  Pelfrey, and Santana were signed was that the Twins did not provide (develop) ML-quality pitchers from their organization and Ryan's dumpster-diving (Diamond, Albers, Deduno, DeVries, etc. were failures and that Ryan and the rest of the Front Office constantly put the blame of losing on the failure of the starting rotation.  Fans, advertisers, broadcasters, and other stakeholders complained long and loud enough to convince Executive Management to spend money to a provide ML-quality rotation. Given the constraints of budget, the willingness of "top" pitchers to sign with Minnesota (or not sign),  those four were signed to be the backbone of the rotation (Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Santana).

 

Why wasn't the Twins organization successful at producing ML-quality starting pitchers?  Many threads and beaucoup posts have been made on that subject.   There is no need for repeating them here.  The posts that "over-priced veterans" are blocking superior pitchers is "beer-talk".  

I dunno the difference of mid to back of rotation type pitchers is pretty minimal. in career ERA/FIP/WHIP/Kper9. Is there really that much difference?

 

Pelfrey 4.45/4.20/1.473/5.1

Santana 4.21/4.30/1.287/7.2

Nolasco 4.50/3.80/1.320/7.3

Hughers 4.34/4.06/1.283/7.4

Diamond 4.43/4.46/1.405/4.2

[Vanimal46]

 

I dunno the difference of mid to back of rotation type pitchers is pretty minimal. in career ERA/FIP/WHIP/Kper9. Is there really that much difference?

 

Pelfrey 4.45/4.20/1.473/5.1

Santana 4.21/4.30/1.287/7.2

Nolasco 4.50/3.80/1.320/7.3

Hughers 4.34/4.06/1.283/7.4

Diamond 4.43/4.46/1.405/4.2

 

Love the avatar picture. On my computer screen you are REALLY into watching a video ad...

[Kwak]

 

Also frustrating is when you commit to three #3/#4/starting to look back of the rotation guys for 10+ million each, you could just spend 20 million/year on an ace type pitcher and hope you scrounge a Tommy Milone type player to fill out the rotation. We lucked out on that one. Milone is not dazzling but his numbers are very similar to our 12 million dollar prize free agent arms. Plus, by avoiding committing to the free agent crap shoot, you don't switch May to bullpen since he has the best K rate by far and he's young and could develop into a legit pitcher. Maybe you spend some of that money on bullpen help since that has proved to be a huge hole down the stretch and easily predicted with the scrap heaps of arms we cart out there.

 

This year was going to be tough since our best prospects Berrios and Duffey were not ready, although they are starting to seem ready now, late season.  Going forward I'd like to see Berrios, Duffey, May, Gibson, and whoever between Pelfrey and Hughes is sucking less at the time rather than the supposed "#3" arms Nolasco and Santana. The Twins will probably continue to maroon their most talented arm May in the bullpen they so woefully neglected.

 

Probably the reason for the dearth of farm system talent for starters over the past decade or so has a lot to do with the Twins maddening preference for control type guys with weak stuff but low walk rates. I'm fine with a guy or two like that on the staff but a whole staff of low K rate dudes is doomed to fail.  They also inexplicably have wasted a lot of high picks on college relievers. None have panned out that I recall.  They had some honest bad luck, too, but their strategy invited it since converting relivers to starters is a dicey propositon for a high pick and picking guys with average stuff in the first place lowers their ceiling.

You assume said "ace" would sign with the Twins.  Why would he sign?  The Twins were awful and were among the most unlikely teams to be in post-season play.  The Twins also have a history of "Not spending to add that extra player"  to truly make the team a WS contender.  That's why the Twins were forced to sign "middle talent" and "lesser talent" veterans.  

[Mike Sixel]

You assume said "ace" would sign with the Twins. Why would he sign? The Twins were awful and were among the most unlikely teams to be in post-season play. The Twins also have a history of "Not spending to add that extra player" to truly make the team a WS contender. That's why the Twins were forced to sign "middle talent" and "lesser talent" veterans.

Do we know that? I don't think we do. Money talks. If they offer it, players will sign, imo.

[Kwak]

No, they don't the "better" team just matches the offer--and the player signs.  It's not like an auction, the player weighs in "other" factors:  the team, the location, outside income, "fitting in", etc.  Consider Mauer, he "always wanted to be a Minnesota Twin", his hometown team.  Do you really think an extra million would sway him to Boston, CA, NY, or PHL ?  I don't.  Perkins is likewise.  he could have 'shopped-around" especially considering that it would have easy for him to perceive he was screwed by the Twins--he didn't.  An extra million might have worked on Perkins contract, but at Joe's $23MM/ year--not a chance.  The type of pitcher discussed--"top shelf", "ace", #1, whatever would be priced around Mauer annual salary.  An extra MM is chump change when comparing a WS contender and the Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

Your examples are awfully cherry picked. Two guys that grew up here and never reached free agency.

[kab21]

 

We say that now, but are they any different than Edwin Jackson? This time next year when Nolasco's deal is down to a year and change, I'm guessing there will be plenty of thought going into DFA'ing him if he still has a 5+ ERA and no other team will come near him. And this time in 2017 there would be no doubt he'd be DFA'd under these same circumstances.

 

Jackson was DFA'd in his 3rd season with the Cubs after pitching over 300 horrible innings and 58 GS.  Santana has made 9 starts after missing half of a season due to a suspension.  Hughes has had an up and down season but he has only had moments when he was dreadfully awful (Jun/Jul were fairly good).  There is no way that either of these guys would have been DFA'd by any team in the majors.  I could see a team stashing one of them in the bullpen for the remainder of the year but nobody would give up on either of them at this point.

 

Nolasco OTOH has looked terrible for 2 seasons both of which were hampered by injuries.  He is getting close to Edwin's level.

Edited August 21, 2015 by kab21

[twinssouth]

If the Twins have the LA Dogers $300M mindset, then no they are not drowning in bad contracts. But, we know that's not the case, so yes, they will be drowning in bad contracts if they don't give roster space to better young pitchers like Duffy and Berrios or have a chance to make a trade for a young stud.

 

 

 

It's the years of contract that is the problem. If Santana is so great, why hadn't he already been on a multi year deal. These guys have been mediocre to poor, who in right mind would take on that contract. Next year, assuming the Twins can't move one of them, we'll have

 

Hughes

Santana

Nolasco

Milone

And, only 1 open spot for Mays, Duffy, Berrios and I'm holding out hope for Meyers

 

 

Who has fueled the turnaround so far? It's all the young guys. The high priced vets haven't done jack squat

[whydidnt]

 

If the Twins have the LA Dogers $300M mindset, then no they are not drowning in bad contracts. But, we know that's not the case, so yes, they will be drowning in bad contracts if they don't give roster space to better young pitchers like Duffy and Berrios or have a chance to make a trade for a young stud. It's the years of contract that is the problem. If Santana is so great, why hadn't he already been on a multi year deal. These guys have been mediocre to poor, who in right mind would take on that contract. Next year, assuming the Twins can't move one of them, we'll have Hughes Santana Nolasco Milone And, only 1 open spot for Mays, Duffy, Berrios and I'm holding out hope for Meyers Who has fueled the turnaround so far? It's all the young guys. The high priced vets haven't done jack squat

The Twins 2015 Salary is still $16M below the league average, even with these contracts. They also likely have higher than average revenue.Money is not the issue. There is no guaranty that May, Duffy, Berrios and Myer are going to perform better than the guys you mentioned, and especially in the short term it's very likely that at 2-3 of the four aren't going to perform well. That's just the nature of pitching prospects. My point is just that while the contracts aren't great, they really are only an anchor if the Twins voluntarily let them be, they still have plenty of money to spend IF they want to.

 

It's not the money, or the years, it's how the Twins decide to deploy their resources. If they allow money already committed to a guy like Nolasco to shade their judgement, then they get what they deserve, but they have the resources to overcome the mistake if they want. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

what bothers me most about this is the amount of people screaming to sign more pitchers (and still are I might add) yet simultaneously being upset about bad contracts.  Ervin Santana was a favorite here at TD for the last two seasons.  We got him now, and suddenly it's a bad contract.  This is why FA is not a good idea.  These contracts are untradeable and guaranteed.  The worst part is that it's keeping younger guys out of the rotation.  May is out right now b/c of this.  Next year, either May, Berrios, Duffey, or quite possibly all of them won't be in the starting rotation despite the fact that they have all shown promise as 3 spots are locked up with these bad contracts and Gibson and Milone being deserving as well. 

 

At least Milone is very tradable, though I'll be thrilled if the return is nothing more than a real good reliever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

what bothers me most about this is the amount of people screaming to sign more pitchers (and still are I might add) yet simultaneously being upset about bad contracts. Ervin Santana was a favorite here at TD for the last two seasons. We got him now, and suddenly it's a bad contract. This is why FA is not a good idea. These contracts are untradeable and guaranteed. The worst part is that it's keeping younger guys out of the rotation. May is out right now b/c of this. Next year, either May, Berrios, Duffey, or quite possibly all of them won't be in the starting rotation despite the fact that they have all shown promise as 3 spots are locked up with these bad contracts and Gibson and Milone being deserving as well.

 

At least Milone is very tradable, though I'll be thrilled if the return is nothing more than a real good reliever.

Is anyone really asking that we sign more starters? I haven't really seen that, except trying to flip Nolasco for an upgrade like Shields.

 

I think plenty of people voiced reservations about committing that many resources to #3 upside starters. Each deal wasn't so bad on its own, but they probably needed to draw the line at some point, maybe put the resources towards a run at an ace if none was developed internally.

[whydidnt]

 

what bothers me most about this is the amount of people screaming to sign more pitchers (and still are I might add) yet simultaneously being upset about bad contracts.  Ervin Santana was a favorite here at TD for the last two seasons.  We got him now, and suddenly it's a bad contract.  

Really? I'm not sure it's the same people. I know there were people clamoring for the Twins to add good pitchers, but don't think they are the ones complaining about the contracts now. Some of us didn't complain about the signings because the Twins had plenty of money to spend, but I was among those that wished they had aimed higher.

 

From my perspective the 3 guys you mentioned, May, Berrios and Duffey (especially Duffey) are all question marks as well. I can almost guaranty that at least one of those guys will never be a quality major league starter, just based upon the history of young pitchers. One of the veterans is likely to get hurt as well, so the "blocking" everyone is concerned about probably won't turn into an issue. We can point to May this year, but that is much on the Twins desire to have him in the pen, then anything else.