Article: Are The Twins Drowning In Bad Contracts?

[Vanimal46]

Not sure how much else can be added to this conversation.. TR did cash in initially on Suzuki and Hughes with good, team friendly contracts. It's just frustrating that the FO took the bait and doubled down after Hughes' career year, and Suzuki's career high 1st half. 

 

I think we can all admit that we would be talking about Nolasco and Santana under performing their annual contract rate eventually. I just figured we would get at least a good year out of them before we got to this point of being frustrated with them. 

[hybridbear]

Even the instances of success, namely the original contracts for Suzuki and Hughes, have been tainted by doubling down after strong (and unprecedented) first impressions, which unsurprisingly have not turned out to signal transformative career turnarounds.

Terry Ryan should be fired for all these bad contracts. Why couldn't the Twins have hired Dombrowski...

 

These contracts are sunk costs now. If the players aren't performing, like Mauer, tell them you will either cut them outright or they can renegotiate their contract. The Hughes deal was terrible, as was the Suzuki contract.

[birddog]

TR was damned if he didn't, damned when he did. We all agreed with his FA signings at the time figuring at worst they could be traded for some value if they performed at their normal level. Indeed a mistake to give new contracts to Hughes and Suzuki, so I see everyone's "buy high". We had to give Kendrys away when he put up Punto type of stats--but we all lauded his signing. He has shown in KC the player TR thought he was getting. I think TR has been much more unlucky than bad. I pray his luck changes during the offseason. 

[jmlease1]

I was opposed to the Nolasco deal at the time, mostly because I just didn't see him as that high value of a player, moving from the NL to the AL and other than eating a lot of innings he'd really only had one particularly good season. But it wasn't a crazy deal...unfortunately he hasn't been healthy.

 

The Suzuki contract was a classic instance of buying high on a guy that the team should have known was going to decline/revert. That's a bad one with some questionable thinking behind it. And it was repeated with Hughes...guy has one excellent season and the team changes course like that's the new normal. Now, I still think the Hughes contract will pay off fine for the team, despite his struggles this year (it's not an outrageous amount for a starting pitcher, his age is good, etc) but it wasn't necessary. Under his old contract he was a massive discount. Now he's a push.

 

As has been said before, Santana's deal is a market one. His suspension was a bad one, but I can't bash the team for it. And we were all pretty happy with his first couple of starts, weren't we? Right now we may just be looking at small sample size issues there, so I'm not panicking on Santana.

 

But it is pretty notable how poorly the top paid players on this roster are playing. (people aren't talking about Torii Hunter in this context either, but he and his $10M contract have fallen off the cliff too.)

 

The Twins need to ensure they don't vest Suzuki's contract for 2017 by playing him too much in 2016 and get out from under it. Nolasco was showing signs of viability before this latest injury disaster (FIP of 2.80, K/9 back up to 7.7) so if he can get healthy he should be fine in the back of the rotation for the next 2 years; possibly over-priced, but not absurd. We don't have to worry too much about his vesting for 2018; if he hits 400 innings over the next 2 seasons after this one a) it'll be a miracle, and a sign that he's actually worth the money. 

 

There's no real solution for Mauer except to hope he gets his bat speed back and starts really hitting again. Unless he moves back to catcher...where we need the help...

 

I will say this: all the twins contract decisions, with the exception of Suzuki, make sense in a vacuum. (sorry, doubling the pay of a 30 year-old coming off a season that was better than anything he'd had in the previous 5 was just a mistake. the "all-star" season was a fluke)

[adjacent]

"The Twins are tied to Nolasco, Santana and Hughes through 2017 for a total of almost $75 million, with the latter two deals running even longer. The monetary aspect is less bothersome than the lengthy commitments, because having these three vets entrenched limits the club's flexibility to plug in youngsters or seek out other options."

I am not sure I agree with this premise. I think the best players and pitchers are the ones who have to play in the field or as pitchers, regardless of contracts. The thinking that if you are paying big money to a player, he has to play, no matter ho bad he is playing, it what lead to things like the May mess, the Nolasco mess, the Mauer mess, and so on.

In the end, you lose more money playing bad players, even when they have big contracts, because fans get tired, and either don't go to the park or turn off the TV.

[chaderic20]

I've never understood the philosophy of, "We're paying this guy X amount of money, so he has to be the starter/closer/whatever-role".  Why does a player's salary determine their playing time?  Shouldn't their talent and performance determine that.  Why double your mistake on a bad contract by insisting on playing someone over a clearly better substitute just because they make more money?

Like others have said, you've already spent the money, there's nothing you can do about that.  Now your goal is to win ballgames, so use your players in whatever role will best help you achieve that goal.

I'd rather have an overpaid bench warmer and be winning games, than run out a clearly subpar team while my best players sit on the bench or in the minors just to try to save face on a bad contract.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I am not sure I agree with this premise. I think the best players and pitchers are the ones who have to play in the field or as pitchers, regardless of contracts. The thinking that if you are paying big money to a player, he has to play, no matter ho bad he is playing, it what lead to things like the May mess, the Nolasco mess, the Mauer mess, and so on.

 

 

I've never understood the philosophy of, "We're paying this guy X amount of money, so he has to be the starter/closer/whatever-role".  Why does a player's salary determine their playing time?  Shouldn't their talent and performance determine that.  Why double your mistake on a bad contract by insisting on playing someone over a clearly better substitute just because they make more money?

Theoretically you guys are right and I doubt many here would disagree with you. But in reality... You have to know that's how it's going to be, right? Few teams would simply bail on these kinds of investments and the Twins almost certainly aren't one of them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Definitely agree on Nolasco. With Santana, I don't think the question is whether TR overpaid, but whether it was a smart/necessary contract in the first place. If they planned on extending Hughes in the same offseason, it meant locking into three of those "#3 type" veteran starters long-term, and that diminishes a flexibility. It'd be one thing if at least one of those guys was a true top-of-the-rotation starter, but as we're seeing, they're not. 

This pretty much sums up my thoughts. I was super-high on the Hughes signing. I questioned the extension and received quite a bit of flak for it. I was moderately high on the Nolasco signing and felt it was necessary at the time. I wasn't entirely on board with the Santana signing because, like you, I wondered exactly how many #3 starters the Twins thought they needed this offseason.

 

In the end, I can't single out any of those deals and say "this was terrible" but when combined, they hamstrung the Twins quite a bit going forward.

[whydidnt]

Regarding Nolasco and Santana. I didn't hate the signings at the time, but I sure didn't love them either. Ryan paid close to or a little more than market rate. However, to me rather than spending 12-13 on each of these guys and 6 to Pelfrey, etc, I would have much rather combined the salaries and brought in a true stud that you could likely count on. My problem is that the organization always tends to think small. The exception being the Mauer deal, and that was a special circumstance. Rather than competing for the 3rd-4th best FA pitcher, go for one of the top 2. If your going to blow a pile of money, you might as well be sure you are getting quality. 

 

At some point the GM has to be responsible for the decisions he makes, right? When does that happen with Ryan. I'm having a hard time finding to many "good" decisions being made regarding the major league roster over the last couple of years. 

 

[chaderic20]

 

Theoretically you guys are right and I doubt many here would disagree with you. But in reality... You have to know that's how it's going to be, right? Few teams would simply bail on these kinds of investments and the Twins almost certainly aren't one of them.

Yes, I do know that's how it's going to be, and that's part of why it's so frustrating.  There is a clearly better way of doing things, but the Twins (and most other teams) refuse to do it.  And the only reason seems to because "That's not how things are done."

Might some veteran get offended or upset that he got benched?  Sure, but I bet he'll gladly take his playoff share and the possibility of getting a ring.

[Tibs]

 

Yeah its pretty obvious they are. 

 

You guys should play OOTPB and manage the Twins. I remember eating Nolasco's contract, trading prospects with Santana, Suzuki and Hughes just to get their salaries off of the books.

 

Then I won it all in 2020!

 

But yeah, the Twins certainly screwed themselves over. Always buying high, selling low, 9 times out of 10.

I love that game. Not to get too off topic, but I had some funny unfortunate things happen to me my first year managing the Twins. Hicks and Nolasco had career ending labrum injuries. I acquired Brandon Guyer and he broke his finger in January during the offseason from being mugged while his house was robbed in the middle of the night. Talk about some interesting programming.

[savvyspy]

The Mauer contract is the most defensible but is absolutely killing this team right now. Its not so much the money as he does nothing for you at first base defensively and he's Doug Mientkiewicz offensively.

 

Nolasco was clearly damaged goods which is a miss but happens.

 

They are the only FO in the league that would have extended Dozier and got nothing for it but that hasn't hurt us yet.

 

Suzuki should be a fireable offense but obviously won't be because there is no expectation of winning with this team.

 

Honestly the Twins are no better or worse at signing free agents than they are at anything else. They can't manage a roster, are embarrassing at the trade deadline, try to invent starting pitching out of relief pitching prospects, and let their best talent sit in the minors longer than every other team for no apparent reason.

 

This is all just the "Twins Way" and will never change until this entire organization is cleaned out from the owners to the front office to the scouts and coaches. Its all just rotten to the core.

 

In the meantime we can enjoy Sano 

[kab21]

One could actually say that none of these contracts are killing the Twins right now.  They are bad contracts but what players have the Twins not been able to sign because of lack of payroll? 

 

They could have a cheaper team but it wouldn't be any better.

[jimmer]

 

One could actually say that none of these contracts are killing the Twins right now.  They are bad contracts but what players have the Twins not been able to sign because of lack of payroll? 

 

They could have a cheaper team but it wouldn't be any better.

Yeah, the contracts aren't killing this team one bit.  By the time we need the money to sign the players we hope deserve big contracts, all the big contracts will be gone.  What's killing this team is lack of proven MLB quality talent.

[tobi0040]

 

The Hughes and Suzuki extensions are the worst, IMO. He missed on Nolasco, maybe on Santana. That can happen.

But when he gets lucky and hits on cheap pickups, he immediately turns assets into liabilities. That is worse, to me, since it sort of points to a lack of understanding what he has, and how to take advantage of it.

 

I am tracking.  But I wanted to add that sometimes when he initially misses, he doubles down and extends liabilities.

 

See Pelfrey.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Of their six highest-paid players – Mauer, Santana, Nolasco, Torii Hunter, Hughes and Kurt Suzuki – not one has even been an average performer this year.

 

How do you count average?  I don't disagree about the rest, but Mauer has an OPS+ of 95, which is "average" within the error margin (albeit his contract is much above average), and Nolasco got hurt and pitched only 7 games, while having a (much) above average 2.80 FIP. 

 

The rest, yeah, but we knew it when those signings and extensions happened.

I'd add Perkins to the fire too.  The Twins are tied to him for another 2-3 seasons, he is the wrong size of 30, and reached his peak 2 seasons ago...

[stringer bell]

The three pitcher signings all look pretty bad at this point. Hughes is the youngest and had a fine season for the Twins in 2014. I would guess he is the most likely to "play up" to the money in his contract. Nolasco has been ineffective and snakebit. He was on his way to having an okay year and then felled by an old ankle injury. Santana has spent the least amount of time with the team and his numbers are poor. In one of Santana's starts, he set down the Angels after the Twins had lost four straight games. He had the chance to salvage the Yankee series, but gave up his second homer of the game and got the loss. Today was a big chance for Ervin to be a stopper and earn some of that big contract, but he instead took the loss.

 

Those three contracts just about guarantee that the Twins won't pursue any big-ticket starters this offseason.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Bench Mauer or send him back to catcher and drop him to ninth in the order. That pathetic play - the non-collision at first with CC is a perfect summary of Joey's pathetic season. No guts and wimping out and worst of all not hustling 100 percent. Hard to believe this wuss was almost a QB at FSU.

[SwainZag]

 

Bench Mauer or send him back to catcher and drop him to ninth in the order. That pathetic play - the non-collision at first with CC is a perfect summary of Joey's pathetic season. No guts and wimping out and worst of all not hustling 100 percent. Hard to believe this wuss was almost a QB at FSU.

 

What's with this non-collision?  I missed this.

[Ncgo4]

Next year we'll have Sano, Hicks, Rosario, Arcia (likely) and Kepler all starting. The average age will be about 23 and that, my friends will be fun. All this assumes, of course, that none of these are traded for a 34 year old 3rd position starting pitcher. It also leaves us sans a catcher or SS that's serviceable.

 

I love Kool Aide and I'm drinkin' it.

[theBOMisthebomb]

What's with this non-collision? I missed this.

[theBOMisthebomb]

First inning of the A-Rod grand slam game. He avoided contact and just looked all around pathetic. Not a key play by any means but representative of Mauer's season.

[nicksaviking]

 

One could actually say that none of these contracts are killing the Twins right now.  They are bad contracts but what players have the Twins not been able to sign because of lack of payroll? 

 

They could have a cheaper team but it wouldn't be any better.

 

It's not the money, it's the roster spots.  I don't care about signings, I care that the best players for now and/or the future won't or perhaps already haven't gotten on to the field because of these long term deals. 

 

If Hughes or Santana pitched as poorly as they have and had Pelfrey's contract they'd already be in the pen, traded or DFA'd.

[bird]

 

a lot of the talent came from when Smith was GM too.

 

 

jimmer, you need to tell me and my pal mike wants wins what either Smith or Ryan had to do with this other than to heed the advice of the five dozen people sourcing and developing the talent and building the relationships with the international agents.

[whydidnt]

 

jimmer, you need to tell me and my pal mike wants wins what either Smith or Ryan had to do with this other than to heed the advice of the five dozen people sourcing and developing the talent and building the relationships with the international agents.

Well, as the GM, both Smith and Ryan are the one's making the final decision on not only who they sign or trade, but also on who they hire to advise them. At the end of the day, that means they have A LOT to do with who is playing for the team and how much they are paid. What's the point of having a GM if they aren't accountable for the team on the field?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, as the GM, both Smith and Ryan are the one's making the final decision on not only who they sign or trade, but also on who they hire to advise them. At the end of the day, that means they have A LOT to do with who is playing for the team and how much they are paid. What's the point of having a GM if they aren't accountable for the team on the field?

Yes, this. It's like saying Obama doesn't really matter because his advisors are the ones negotiating and forming legislation.

 

For good or bad, the guy at the top gets the credit or blame, if only because he's the one hiring the people doing the daily legwork.

[kab21]

 

It's not the money, it's the roster spots.  I don't care about signings, I care that the best players for now and/or the future won't or perhaps already haven't gotten on to the field because of these long term deals. 

 

If Hughes or Santana pitched as poorly as they have and had Pelfrey's contract they'd already be in the pen, traded or DFA'd.

Players guys like Santana or Hughes would not have been DFA'd regardless if they were paid the minimum.  That is the absolute extreme in knee jerk reactions considering how well they have done in the past.

[Kwak]

The reasons that Hughes, Nolasco,  Pelfrey, and Santana were signed was that the Twins did not provide (develop) ML-quality pitchers from their organization and Ryan's dumpster-diving (Diamond, Albers, Deduno, DeVries, etc. were failures and that Ryan and the rest of the Front Office constantly put the blame of losing on the failure of the starting rotation.  Fans, advertisers, broadcasters, and other stakeholders complained long and loud enough to convince Executive Management to spend money to a provide ML-quality rotation. Given the constraints of budget, the willingness of "top" pitchers to sign with Minnesota (or not sign),  those four were signed to be the backbone of the rotation (Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Santana).

 

Why wasn't the Twins organization successful at producing ML-quality starting pitchers?  Many threads and beaucoup posts have been made on that subject.   There is no need for repeating them here.  The posts that "over-priced veterans" are blocking superior pitchers is "beer-talk".  

[Doug T]

 

Definitely agree on Nolasco. With Santana, I don't think the question is whether TR overpaid, but whether it was a smart/necessary contract in the first place. If they planned on extending Hughes in the same offseason, it meant locking into three of those "#3 type" veteran starters long-term, and that diminishes a flexibility. It'd be one thing if at least one of those guys was a true top-of-the-rotation starter, but as we're seeing, they're not. 

Also frustrating is when you commit to three #3/#4/starting to look back of the rotation guys for 10+ million each, you could just spend 20 million/year on an ace type pitcher and hope you scrounge a Tommy Milone type player to fill out the rotation. We lucked out on that one. Milone is not dazzling but his numbers are very similar to our 12 million dollar prize free agent arms. Plus, by avoiding committing to the free agent crap shoot, you don't switch May to bullpen since he has the best K rate by far and he's young and could develop into a legit pitcher. Maybe you spend some of that money on bullpen help since that has proved to be a huge hole down the stretch and easily predicted with the scrap heaps of arms we cart out there.

 

This year was going to be tough since our best prospects Berrios and Duffey were not ready, although they are starting to seem ready now, late season.  Going forward I'd like to see Berrios, Duffey, May, Gibson, and whoever between Pelfrey and Hughes is sucking less at the time rather than the supposed "#3" arms Nolasco and Santana. The Twins will probably continue to maroon their most talented arm May in the bullpen they so woefully neglected.

 

Probably the reason for the dearth of farm system talent for starters over the past decade or so has a lot to do with the Twins maddening preference for control type guys with weak stuff but low walk rates. I'm fine with a guy or two like that on the staff but a whole staff of low K rate dudes is doomed to fail.  They also inexplicably have wasted a lot of high picks on college relievers. None have panned out that I recall.  They had some honest bad luck, too, but their strategy invited it since converting relivers to starters is a dicey propositon for a high pick and picking guys with average stuff in the first place lowers their ceiling.

[nicksaviking]

 

Players guys like Santana or Hughes would not have been DFA'd regardless if they were paid the minimum.  That is the absolute extreme in knee jerk reactions considering how well they have done in the past.

 

We say that now, but are they any different than Edwin Jackson? This time next year when Nolasco's deal is down to a year and change, I'm guessing there will be plenty of thought going into DFA'ing him if he still has a 5+ ERA and no other team will come near him. And this time in 2017 there would be no doubt he'd be DFA'd under these same circumstances.