Article: Are The Twins Drowning In Bad Contracts?

[Nick Nelson]

In his second season with the Twins, and his first since signing a five-year, $58 million extension during the offseason, Phil Hughes has taken a major step backward. He has allowed the most hits and homers in the league. His fastball velocity has dipped while his K-rate has bottomed out. There's been talk of dead arm, and now he's on the shelf with a bad back after his worst start in a Twins uniform.

 

Not exactly the signs you like to see from a 29-year-old with four more guaranteed years left on his deal. But sadly, Hughes' contract isn't the ugliest one the Twins are presently shackled to. Far from it.As we all know, there's been plenty of lamentation surrounding Joe Mauer's contract, and the gripes carry more legitimacy now that the former MVP has gone from undeserving whipping boy to actual liability.

 

But Mauer is at least in the lineup everyday, typically batting third and producing enough to stay afloat. While he is undoubtedly overpaid at this point, Mauer has been providing some modicum of value to the team and has an elite track record to fall back on.

 

That's more than can be said of the pitchers signed to the two largest free agent contracts in franchise history over the past two offseasons – contracts that have up to this point turned out so disastrously that it almost defies belief.

 

Ricky Nolasco inked a four-year, $49 million deal in November of 2013. Since then, he has given the Twins 191 innings with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. This year he has been limited to seven starts and it appears that he won't return due to a nagging ankle injury.

 

The prized free agent signing of the past offseason, Ervin Santana, has overshadowed Nolasco in terms of money and misfortune. His four-year, $55 million pact eclipsed Nolasco's as the most lucrative ever for the Twins, and his has gotten off to an even worse start. While the injuries for Nolasco have been frustrating, it's hard to fault a guy for getting hurt; meanwhile, the trouble that kept Santana off the field was self-induced, as he missed the first 80 games this year due to a steroid suspension.

 

Since returning, Santana has delivered one of the worst stretches of performance in his career. He has given up nine homers in eight starts and his substandard 13.8 percent strikeout rate is radically out of line with his norm. The hope was that his return in early July would further stabilize a rotation that had been surprisingly effective in the first half, but instead, Santana's lousy output has coincided with a complete meltdown for the unit as a whole.

 

The Twins are tied to Nolasco, Santana and Hughes through 2017 for a total of almost $75 million, with the latter two deals running even longer. The monetary aspect is less bothersome than the lengthy commitments, because having these three vets entrenched limits the club's flexibility to plug in youngsters or seek out other options.

 

In general, the Twins are mired in questionable contracts. Of their six highest-paid players – Mauer, Santana, Nolasco, Torii Hunter, Hughes and Kurt Suzuki – not one has even been an average performer this year. All but Hunter are locked in to return next year and at this point there's not a whole lot of reason to believe any will be above average then, either.

 

Granted, this is a snapshot being taken at a time that is hopefully the low point for this collective group. It's hard to imagine that Santana and Hughes will continue to struggle to this degree, although the potential injury implications of their plummeting strikeout rates are concerning.

 

Either way, there's no denying that Terry Ryan's forays into free agency now that he finally has the financial freedom that was never available to him in his past tenure have been roundly brutal. Even the instances of success, namely the original contracts for Suzuki and Hughes, have been tainted by doubling down after strong (and unprecedented) first impressions, which unsurprisingly have not turned out to signal transformative career turnarounds.

 

Certainly there's been a lot of bad luck at play, but to what extent are Ryan and the front office culpable for all these repeatedly floundering contracts?

 

While the salaries shouldn't be all that disturbing to the standard fan – it's not our money – the long-term commitments to what's looking like a whole lot of veteran mediocrity, for a young rebuilding team, could be very damaging from a competitive standpoint. That's a problem.

 

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[Jham]

I think Hughes has to go back to the pen when he comes back from the DL.  He's experienced there, and he's worn down.  Come back next year and go Hughes into Perk.

[Otwins]

With all the young talent they have this is not as big of a problem as it could have been. Too bad the money wasn't well spent as they would be in terrific shape if that happened. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think Hughes has to go back to the pen when he comes back from the DL.  He's experienced there, and he's worn down.  Come back next year and go Hughes into Perk.

 

I might be reading this wrong... are you saying that he stay in the bullpen going forward, beyond this year? I can see him working in the bullpen this year if they are completely out of it... but not going forward. That's a lot of money for an 8th inning guy.

[DaveW]

The best contract Ryan has signed in the past few years has been the Dozier one, and that one isn't even that great since it didn't buy out any free agent years and at best saves the twins a few million dollars.

 

Every other contract has been pretty much between "meh to poor"

 

But it hasn't doomed the Twins, it is part of the reason but not the full reason, they still have payroll flexibility but refuse to pull the trigger on any legitimate trade. Those two things combined have doomed this franchise to one of the biggest laughing stocks of the league these last 5 seasons.

[USAFChief]

The Hughes and Suzuki extensions are the worst, IMO. He missed on Nolasco, maybe on Santana. That can happen.

 

But when he gets lucky and hits on cheap pickups, he immediately turns assets into liabilities. That is worse, to me, since it sort of points to a lack of understanding what he has, and how to take advantage of it.

[troyhobbs]

Ryan obviously knows enough about baseball to get some talent in the system (having really high draft picks helps) but not sure he has a clue about how to build a winner. Those contracts could easily hold the team back the next few years and probably will.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Hughes and Suzuki extensions are the worst, IMO. He missed on Nolasco, maybe on Santana. That can happen.

But when he gets lucky and hits on cheap pickups, he immediately turns assets into liabilities. That is worse, to me, since it sort of points to a lack of understanding what he has, and how to take advantage of it.

 

I agree with this actually. I liked the Nolasco and Santana contracts when they were signed. I still believe Santana will be fine. I liked the original Hughes contract, and the Suzuki one was fine, but they didn't need to extend either of them. 

[drock2190]

Yeah its pretty obvious they are. 

 

You guys should play OOTPB and manage the Twins. I remember eating Nolasco's contract, trading prospects with Santana, Suzuki and Hughes just to get their salaries off of the books.

 

Then I won it all in 2020!

 

But yeah, the Twins certainly screwed themselves over. Always buying high, selling low, 9 times out of 10.

[Rosterman]

It is frustrating because the Twins listened to the fans and spent the money, but were forced to essentially overpay for mid-level pitchers, either in dollars or length of contract. Face it, players aren't knocking down the doors to play here, and the Big Guys assume that the Twins won't spend the dollars (see internal free agents who have moved elsewhere). At least if you end up overpaying your internal free agents, you are, in a ways, rewarding them for jobs well cone.

 

You never know how longterm contracts will work out, but you do have to go 2-3 years at lesat for above average players these days. You can land a one-year on someone looking for a rebuild year (or pull a Pelfrey maybe). 

 

Faced with the problem of promoting prospects too soon, or waiting too long, the Twins are...well, I'm happy they are giving us pretty good ball this year for a solid team that plays together but the reality is that there really aren't a lot of players with more than a year's expeience to get overtly excited about.

 

The money is just money. You spend it. It doesn't carry over from season to season if you don't spend it. Yes, it can prevent you from spending down-the-line, but if the player can walk and toss, you can probably flip him for a prospect or another overpaid hunk of sludge.

 

[Jham]

 

I might be reading this wrong... are you saying that he stay in the bullpen going forward, beyond this year? I can see him working in the bullpen this year if they are completely out of it... but not going forward. That's a lot of money for an 8th inning guy.

 

Half serious, half tongue in cheek.  The money is spent.  I see Hughes as the most likely to be a good bull pen guy, other than May.  You could also say, we're not paying Perkins much to be an elite closer, so maybe we should move him to 8th, and Hughes in for the save.  I don't really care.  I want the bull pen fixed.  I don't want Hughes AND Perkins to run out of gas 2 consecutive years (Hughes maybe had just enough gas, recall he didn't want 1 extra out for like a quarter mil).  It would still be cheaper than having Hughes AND signing an 8th inning guy.  So yeah, maybe I'm talking myself into it.  On the other hand, it's pretty late, and I'm pretty mad still about the last 2 losses...

Edited August 19, 2015 by Jham

[Kwak]

The thread says "bad contracts", the posts say "bad players".  Those are different items.  FWIW,  I think Nolaco will make a "Pelfrey-like" comeback/turnaround next season.  Santana will... (get better at drugs?) improve a bit.  All would benefit from some serious PT before and during the season so they don't tire so much.

[Mike Sixel]

Mauer is producing value? Compared to what? Not first basemen.

[Jham]

Wait what about Molitor's contract?  Oh but managers can be fired...  but probably not after a season...  TK and Gardy both made the playoffs in their first years...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Agree, these free agent contracts have not exactly worked out for the best.

[carlito_b]

Terry Ryan has become the master of buy high and sell low.. For a team that's supposed to building for the future signing as bunch of replacement level players to four year contracts was really smart.. Let's just block all of our prospects its not like we have a top five farm system or anything

[howeda7]

The Hughes extension was totally unnecessary. I didn't hate it that much at the time, and still don't. But it was done at least a year earlier than needed.

[jimmer]

 

Ryan obviously knows enough about baseball to get some talent in the system (having really high draft picks helps) but not sure he has a clue about how to build a winner. Those contracts could easily hold the team back the next few years and probably will.

a lot of the talent came from when Smith was GM too.

[beckmt]

Bottom line to the problem is that the bullpen guys with stuff were starting in AA and expected to be here by now.  This has not happened, and will not happen this year.  Year has been a surprise and I am happy to be watching meaningful games at this time.  If it falls apart, there will be one last high draft pick next June(Twins are only about 5-6 games from the worst record in the American league).  Also best minor league pitchers will be a year closer to being here.  TR expected to have at least one of the bullpen guys be here by now(overevaluation, yes, big error, no).  Calm down and give it another year.   Other issue is that other teams know the Twins system and are asking for guys that would be in their teams top 10.  Ryan may have to pull one big trade, but looks like the time is this winter.  Would expect a catcher to be teams biggest need. And yes Twins may have to eat money to get some of the bad contracts off the books.

[Badsmerf]

These bad contacts are starting to pile up. To me, that is why you spend money on elite players, like Mauer was. Paying for mediocrity is dumb, because it's easy to find. Hughes shouldn't have been extended, Suzuki either, or Pelfrey (although he has pitched well and might still get traded). The Nolasco signing has been a disaster. Luckily, a few bad contacts can be overcome.

[Boom Boom]

I might be reading this wrong... are you saying that he stay in the bullpen going forward, beyond this year? I can see him working in the bullpen this year if they are completely out of it... but not going forward. That's a lot of money for an 8th inning guy.

The money is spent already. TR should do what he can to improve the baseball team.

 

Not that I necessarily agree with Hughes as a reliever next season. I'm referring more to the Mauer contract. If there's a first base option in the system that can outhit him, the bad contract shouldn't keep Mauer on the field instead.

[nicksaviking]

 

In general, the Twins are mired in questionable contracts. Of their six highest-paid players – Mauer, Santana, Nolasco, Torii Hunter, Hughes and Kurt Suzuki – not one has even been an average performer this year. All but Hunter are locked in to return next year and at this point there's not a whole lot of reason to believe any will be above average then, either.

 

And the youngest of the bunch is 29-years-old.

 

Maybe it was getting rid of the PEDs, maybe it was getting rid of the "greenies" maybe it's just pure Darwinism, but this is clearly a young man's game.  The overwhelming odds show that you want players who are on their first contract.  If you don't have enough internal young players who can help, it seems one of the best alternatives for getting them is by signing free agent vets to tradable 1-2 year contracts. 

 

It's not even about the money, that's six freakin' spots on the 25 man that are inflexible, and in most of their cases there's no real solution other than cutting them, and that's not happening.

[HitInAPinch]

Only response I have is:  DUH.

 

Like Rosterman posted:   You wanted changes, you wanted signings, you got them.  Problem is:  this is not really a good team.   This is and average/below average team with a few average/maybe above average players.   They've had to added players from the MiLB to boost this team to the average level [sano, Hicks, Rosario, etc.].  No above average player wants to be a MN Twin.   You'll have to bribe them with a ton of money to get them here.

 

OK, I got another response:  TIME TO GET REALISTIC. 

Edited August 19, 2015 by HitInAPinch

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

BUY HIGH! BUY HIGH!

 

The Suzuki extension was horrible. Here was a guy outperforming his career norms by a wide margin with rumors swirling about the Twins potentially trading him (like any smart, forward-thinking FO would do). But what do they do? They extend him, and he has since tanked.

 

The Hughes deal is looking like another overreaction and misread of a performance that far outweighed his career norms.

 

I can't blame TR for the Nolasco and Santana deals. I'm hoping there was no way of knowing Nolasco would be so horrible. But the move was at least acceptable at the time and fans could see some logic. As for Santana, I think it was foolhardy to believe he'd be able to hit the ground running midyear after the long layoff and perform up to his contract against guys with a 3-month headstart. I'm hoping he'll be fine under the regular schedule next year.

 

Mauer's deal is Mauer's deal. It was the ultimate "BUY HIGH" deal. MVP year, power numbers way askew from career  average, one year before FA. Nothing can correct the $/year remaining. All that can be done is to let his perfromance determine playing time, spot in lineup, etc. rather than size of contract.

[Blackjack]

Its unbelievable that the Twins didn't have Santana pee in a bottle and get drug tested BEFORE they signed him to a contract or that MLB doesn't allow them to cut players that test positive for PED's.

 

The Twins needed to improve their starting pitching in order to improve, the did that by signing Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana, and they had to sign them to longer terms in order to get them to sign. It is what it is. With injuries, they don't have have too much starting depth. It'll work out. 

 

Would people rather see all the AAA starters here instead?? That would make for a long season!!!

[Seth Stohs]

 

And the youngest of the bunch is 29-years-old.

 

 

The overwhelming odds show that you want players who are on their first contract.  If you don't have enough internal young players who can help, it seems one of the best alternatives for getting them is by signing free agent vets to tradable 1-2 year contracts. 

 

It's not even about the money, that's six freakin' spots on the 25 man that are inflexible, and in most of their cases there's no real solution other than cutting them, and that's not happening.

 

Which goes back to why signing free agents is rarely a wise investment. That's always been the case. The reality, for whatever reason, is that after age 31 or 32, players don't get better. You get value from guys within that first six seasons. That's why it's so vital to build from within and have that be the core. They're getting close to having that again. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Its unbelievable that the Twins didn't have Santana pee in a bottle and get drug tested BEFORE they signed him to a contract

I'm pretty sure that's against the CBA's rules.

[Seth Stohs]

 

BUY HIGH! BUY HIGH!

 

The Suzuki extension was horrible. Here was a guy outperforming his career norms by a wide margin with rumors swirling about the Twins potentially trading him (like any smart, forward-thinking FO would do). But what do they do? They extend him, and he has since tanked.

 

The Hughes deal is looking like another overreaction and misread of a performance that far outweighed his career norms.

 

I can't blame TR for the Nolasco and Santana deals. I'm hoping there was no way of knowing Nolasco would be so horrible. But the move was at least acceptable at the time and fans could see some logic. As for Santana, I think it was foolhardy to believe he'd be able to hit the ground running midyear after the long layoff and perform up to his contract against guys with a 3-month headstart. I'm hoping he'll be fine under the regular schedule next year.

 

Mauer's deal is Mauer's deal. It was the ultimate "BUY HIGH" deal. MVP year, power numbers way askew from career  average, one year before FA. Nothing can correct the $/year remaining. All that can be done is to let his perfromance determine playing time, spot in lineup, etc. rather than size of contract.

 

Agree on all counts. Extending Suzuki made no sense. Extending Hughes just wasn't necessary. 

 

But I really liked the Nolasco deal at the time. He's always been a solid starter whose performance and peripherals were always better than his ERA showed. I thought it was a good risk.

 

I still like the Santana deal. I don't have much problem with that. The reality is that #3 type of starters gets $12-13 million a year. And after how bad things were, I didn't have a problem with them grabbing some starters with a lot of experience. 

 

And again, the Mauer contract was never going to make sense from a "baseball" sense, but it made complete sense from a business sense. He was elite, and that's what happens. Players get paid for what they've done, knowing that those years 5-8 aren't going to be as good as those pre-free agency deals have been.

[Nick Nelson]

 

But I really liked the Nolasco deal at the time. He's always been a solid starter whose performance and peripherals were always better than his ERA showed. I thought it was a good risk.

 

I still like the Santana deal. I don't have much problem with that. The reality is that #3 type of starters gets $12-13 million a year. And after how bad things were, I didn't have a problem with them grabbing some starters with a lot of experience. 

Definitely agree on Nolasco. With Santana, I don't think the question is whether TR overpaid, but whether it was a smart/necessary contract in the first place. If they planned on extending Hughes in the same offseason, it meant locking into three of those "#3 type" veteran starters long-term, and that diminishes a flexibility. It'd be one thing if at least one of those guys was a true top-of-the-rotation starter, but as we're seeing, they're not. 

[markos]

 

Mauer is producing value? Compared to what? Not first basemen.

Yes and no. From a straight WAR perspective, he is basically replacement-level, which would indicate that he isn't providing any value. However, the Twins are 20th in the majors for production at first-base. The position is really weak this season, and there are a lot of teams (Cle, Oak, StL, Col, Mia, Sea, TB, Pit, Hou, Was, Phi) who would be better off is Mauer had been their everyday firstbaseman for the season. So it is by no means great, but there is value in being better than many of one's peers at a position. 

 

Contrast the Mauer at first with Hunter in RF. One can argue that Mauer and Hunter have been equally valuable (or not valuable) this year, with maybe Hunter being slightly better by certain metrics. However, only two teams have been worse than the Twins at RF this season - KC and the Cubs.