Ah, yes. I glanced at 2013, not 2014. 

That's what I suspected.  He was fine through 2011-2013.  But the trend the last two seasons has been troubling (especially when he wasn't a Miller-level elite K guy to begin with).

 

That's what I suspected.  He was fine through 2011-2013.  But the trend the last two seasons has been troubling (especially when he wasn't a Miller-level elite K guy to begin with).

The dropoff is strange and the overall decline is troublesome.

 

In the first half of the season in years past, Perkins was a 12 k/9 guy for the first half of the season. That dropped to mere mortal levels in the second half of those seasons.

 

But now he's missing fewer and fewer bats overall. He is well into red flag territory the way he has consistently dropped in K rate... I haven't looked into velocity but I suspect the two elements are in lock-step decline.

Perk has admitted himself that he does not hit it real hard in the offseason.   Well as he gets older, he probably should re-evaluate that approach.   These declining numbers in the 2nd half suggest he is getting tired.   If you are in better shape, you may have more gas in the tank in the 2nd half.

Perkins needs to be demoted to a 7th or 8th inning set up man until he regains his form and confidence.  If he is unable to regain it, send him to the minors for a couple of weeks.  Pick up the velocity on the fast ball, work on location, and get a breaking ball to break down and away. 

 

Taking out two relief pitchers who were pumped and throwing bullets and substituting a guy who started falling apart in the all star game and has never really recovered is just managing by formula instead of good situational strategy.

 

Perkins looks like he's barely getting by with some kind of injury. Pulled oblique, sore elbow, maybe both. He's been throwing a bare minimum number of sliders, I think because that hurts more than throwing his fast ball. At the same time, his accuracy with the heater has degraded, again I think because he's nursing some kind of injury.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins swap Perkins for Trevor May for a while. May has got better stuff right now than Perk does, and May is as sturdy as a horse.

 

Perkins needs to be demoted to a 7th or 8th inning set up man until he regains his form and confidence.  If he is unable to regain it, send him to the minors for a couple of weeks.  Pick up the velocity on the fast ball, work on location, and get a breaking ball to break down and away. 

 

Taking out two relief pitchers who were pumped and throwing bullets and substituting a guy who started falling apart in the all star game and has never really recovered is just managing by formula instead of good situational strategy.

Maybe a demotion would help. But who's going to close? I know most people here would say May, but I'm not sure if Molly would trust him like that - May's been in maybe 3 high leverage situations as a reliever!

 

So then... Jepsen as closer?

 

Every year Perk's strikeount numbers plummet in the 2nd half.  Even if in past years he has held on to his other attributes, his diminishing strikeouts were bound to become a problem.

 

This isn't new.  If there's anything we can take away from this, it's to trade him come the deadline next year after he regains his value. 

People have been say how great Perkins was after going 28-0 in saves.  A lot of those save were of the weak kind: 

 

"A relief pitcher is awarded a save when he meets all three of the following conditions:

    He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and
    He is not the winning pitcher; and
    He qualifies under one of the following conditions:
        He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or
        He enters the game, regardless of the score, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat, or on deck; or
        He pitches for at least three innings. (The word "effectively" has been removed from the MLB rules.)

 

Allowing Perkins to pad his stats is what's killing him.

Edited August 18, 201511 yr by HitInAPinch

Perk has been swimming in a pen that stinks. At some point, he's gunna stink too.

 

Perk has admitted himself that he does not hit it real hard in the offseason.   Well as he gets older, he probably should re-evaluate that approach.   These declining numbers in the 2nd half suggest he is getting tired.   If you are in better shape, you may have more gas in the tank in the 2nd half.

I really don't get how a closer wears down over the course of a season, even though apparently some do.  At best they may pitch 3 times per week and throw 20 pitches per outing.  So 60 pitches per week max.  If I had a gun to my head I would bet some sort of injury comes out soon. 

 

People have been say how great Perkins was after going 28-0 in saves.  A lot of those save were of the weak kind: 

 

"A relief pitcher is awarded a save when he meets all three of the following conditions:

    He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and
    He is not the winning pitcher; and
    He qualifies under one of the following conditions:
        He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or
        He enters the game, regardless of the score, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat, or on deck; or
        He pitches for at least three innings. (The word "effectively" has been removed from the MLB rules.)

 

Allowing Perkins to pad his stats is what's killing him.

 

Perkins game-entering leverage index for the season is 1.81.  Andrew Miller's is 1.62.  Perkins has 11 one-run saves, and 10 two-run saves.  Miller has 12 and 6, respectively.

 

The save is the wrong stat to use to praise Perkins, but it's also a bad stat to use to criticize him.

I hate to be pessimistic, but I 100% agree with Nick. It's too late this year, but hoping Perkins regains form next year, deal him at the break when his value is highest. If we expect to contend in the next few years, we simply cannot rely on a guy who, despite his talent, has routinely proven incapable of standing up to the 162-game slate.

 

And regarding Gibson, he needs to stop trying to locate every damn pitch and just trust his stuff. This year it feels like he's behind on almost every batter.

Perk has not been good since the All-Star break, but it seems like many of his worst efforts were when the score was tied, not in save situations. It seems no matter who the closer is, Kimbrel and Chapman included, they aren't the same pitcher unless it is a save opportunity. I would like to see the stats of the best closers in save and non-save situations to see how it varies.

 

We can't trade Perk now with his value down and the Twins "in contention". Ryan wouldn't trade him next year near the all-star break if the Twins are contending. If he peddles him it has to be during the off season, but as someone who watched Ron Davis it can get a whole lot worse than what Perkins has given us.

Just look at last year and see how he wore down. He is clearly not capable of pitching the entire season.

 

 

Just look at last year and see how he wore down. He is clearly not capable of pitching the entire season.

If I'm not mistaken he was shut down with injury last year, unless you can pin point the exact time he was injured, it might just not be a regular wearing down.  

Perkins has been the shining light of a suspect bullpen. A lot of pressure is on him as the man at the end. A tick down in confidence, maybe a mph down in velocity and just a few inches in location make a lot of difference.

 

Perkins game-entering leverage index for the season is 1.81.  Andrew Miller's is 1.62.  Perkins has 11 one-run saves, and 10 two-run saves.  Miller has 12 and 6, respectively.

 

The save is the wrong stat to use to praise Perkins, but it's also a bad stat to use to criticize him.

 

8.10 ERA

7.80 FIP

2.100 WHIP

.383/.420/.702 Opponent slash line (that's 1.122 OPS)

 

Perkins in the second half.

 

Please feel free to defend any of these...

 

 

*as far as that "shinning light" goes, Perkins seems more and more like a polished .....

 

Edited August 19, 201511 yr by Thrylos

Continue the Perkins issue here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19763-wetmore-perkins-to-get-cortisone-shot/?p=389542