The Revere Experiment: Range vs Arm

[spideyo]

Can we just trade Span for Rick Ankiel and be done with this topic for good?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think they're talking about the triple.

 

FWIW, I was listening to the Tiger radio b'cast on the way to work, and they made it sound like a triple all the way.

 

It was, by the time the OF got to it, he was rounding 2nd.

[Mike Sixel]

Sorry, I also agree range is more important than arm, but I've always felt that. Revere's play is merely adding evidence that it is true.

[TheLeviathan]

Its real simple... Bens arm does suck but Runners are advancing the extra base on Francouer and they are advancing on Ben Revere. They advance based upon where the ball is and where the fielder is.

I'm going to reiterate my point and then just hit this one. The rest of this post is...baffling....is the best way I can say it.

 

What I responded to was your claim that even when you watch games, and someone takes a base on Revere, you "won't" see it even when it happens. Essentially that you will cover your eyes, plug your ears, and sing "la-la-la" to avoid acknowledging this aspect of his game. That's pretty irrational. Hard to take you seriously.

 

Speaking of hard to take seriously....did you just use the statistic of outfield assists to judge whether or not people were taking extra bases on Revere? You do realize that doesn't work right? Your argument was "Well, Revere's outfield assist total is close to Francouers....therefore people are taking the same number of extra bases between these two fielders." That is a really fundamental misunderstanding of the argument and the stat. Almost comically fundamental. It's like arguing David Wright is as fast as Michael Bourn because they've both been caught stealing the same number of times.

[Riverbrian]

I'm going to reiterate my point and then just hit this one. The rest of this post is...baffling....is the best way I can say it.

 

What I responded to was your claim that even when you watch games, and someone takes a base on Revere, you "won't" see it even when it happens. Essentially that you will cover your eyes, plug your ears, and sing "la-la-la" to avoid acknowledging this aspect of his game. That's pretty irrational. Hard to take you seriously.

 

Speaking of hard to take seriously....did you just use the statistic of outfield assists to judge whether or not people were taking extra bases on Revere? You do realize that doesn't work right? Your argument was "Well, Revere's outfield assist total is close to Francouers....therefore people are taking the same number of extra bases between these two fielders." That is a really fundamental misunderstanding of the argument and the stat. Almost comically fundamental. It's like arguing David Wright is as fast as Michael Bourn because they've both been caught stealing the same number of times.

OF assists was brought to point out how often the Rocket Arms are stopping the advancing runner but OK... Let's forget that if you like.

 

I acknowledge this part of his game. His arm is below par and I e said it. I see runners advancing on Revere. I believe that they would have advanced on (insert other OF'er here) cuz arm strength isn't the only answer... but let's forget that as well... I take it back.

 

Lets just say... Get to the ball quick and get it in quick. Problem solved. Or is that unreasonable. lol...

[TheLeviathan]

OF assists was brought to point out how often the Rocket Arms are stopping the advancing runner but OK... Let's forget that if you like.

They don't show that because that stat only reflects how often a runner is caught trying to advance. It has NOTHING to do with how often they successfully advance.

 

I have no problem with the idea that Revere's range helps him. I'm not expert enough to judge his outfield routes so I don't touch that. His arm is an issue and it will cost the Twins runs and games. His range and his offense (since it has improved more than I ever thought it could) I believe are more than making up for that as of today.

[Riverbrian]

They don't show that because that stat only reflects how often a runner is caught trying to advance. It has NOTHING to do with how often they successfully advance.

 

I have no problem with the idea that Revere's range helps him. I'm not expert enough to judge his outfield routes so I don't touch that. His arm is an issue and it will cost the Twins runs and games. His range and his offense (since it has improved more than I ever thought it could) I believe are more than making up for that as of today.

I understand exactly... What outfield assist means. My point is that runners are advancing on Everybody and they go when they feel safe regardless of the cannon and they feel safe to advance based more on where the ball is as opposed to who is throwing. My opinion... Not yours... I get that.

 

We really don't have a stat that suggests how often runners feel adventurous based on who is holding the ball in the OF. I believe that getting to the ball quicker makes up the arm strength difference more than you might think but we will have to agree to disagree I guess.

 

Will his arm cost the Twins runs or Games... Yes it will. So will Spans some day and Willingham. Doesn't happen enough to worry about. We currently do not have Francouer or Cuddyer in our OF... That is also something to point out.

 

Too much is made of his arm.

[TheLeviathan]

My point is that runners are advancing on Everybody and they go when they feel safe regardless of the cannon and they feel safe to advance based more on where the ball is as opposed to who is throwing. My opinion... Not yours... I get that.

This is not an opinion. Outfield assists do...not...prove..that! They only demonstrate the success of gunning down guys advancing. If you want to post a stat on successfully taking bases - do so. But again, you're trying to argue Bourn is as fast as Wright by posting caught stealing. That isn't what the stat shows! I've been fairly kind on what is a completely ridiculous argument.

[Riverbrian]

This is not an opinion. Outfield assists do...not...prove..that! They only demonstrate the success of gunning down guys advancing. If you want to post a stat on successfully taking bases - do so. But again, you're trying to argue Bourn is as fast as Wright by posting caught stealing. That isn't what the stat shows! I've been fairly kind on what is a completely ridiculous argument.

I'm being played here. Not continuing. Carry on. I spend too much time on this site.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm being played here. Not continuing. Carry on. I spend too much time on this site.

You're not being played - you used a statistic wrong, was pointed out to you delicately, and then you tried to use it the wrong way again!

 

Outfield assists only demonstrate success at gunning down. They don't show success against runners advancing.

[Milkman]

I'm being played here. Not continuing. Carry on. I spend too much time on this site.

 

RB, if you could provide stats showing the rate at which these outfielders are getting assists then we would be closer to a stat that would be benefitial. Honestly there is no way we are ever going to know the excact impact of Revere in RF because there is no way to know the intent of the runner. Would a different RF cause a runner to not attempt advancing on a given play? Well in that case that RF has no chance at an assist and in your argument this would essentially go against the RF.

[chopper0080]

I am an out of town Twins fan so I don't see many games and would rather pose a question to consistent viewers than make too many guesses. To my knowledge, the ball in target field carries further to left field than it does to right field. Using this assumption, this would mean there are more playable balls hit to right field vs left field ala more balls travel over the fence in left field and more plays are made at the warning track in right field. Because of this, it would make more sense to me to have a player with better range in right field because he will able to get to more balls as there are more playable balls hit to that area. My question to those on the board is, is this true?

 

If it is, my thoughts would be why isn't Revere in CF and Span in RF? Both have plus range and Span has the better arm, so why wouldn't you flip the two? You would not be sacrificing as much in range as you would by moving Willingham over, and would benefit from having the better arm in RF.

 

Honestly, I don't think it will matter too much longer as I see Span being traded either this season or during next offseason for an arm for the bullpen which would move Revere to CF. If a trade like this happened, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins pursue a player like Nate Schierholtz from SF who has the reputation of being a plus outfielder but has been made expendable by the Giants moves lately.

[snepp]

You can't move Span, he's "the centerfielder." Hurt feelings would ensue.

 

 

And as far as potential trades go, Span looks a little more enticing if he's playing center every day.

[Steve Lein]

Not even a discussion, the range wins over arm in every plane of existence. However, that doesn't mean he's a "good fit" in RF either. That's the one spot where you can't take a "maximum" advantage of his range nor minimize the effects of his arm.

 

3) His other problem, that to date he has fixed, is his ability to get on base. I'm not convinced that major leaguers will not adjust to him a bit, but based on what I saw of him this week, the kid should be able to consistently hit around the .300 mark as long as he takes good at bats like he did this series and continues to make good solid contact on the ball.

 

If Revere can consistently hit around or above .300, the "ability to get on base" shouldn't be discussed, because he's obviously doing it. There are a lot of teams that would kill to have a .318/.348 table setter in the 1 or 2 spot, even a .300/.330. Believe me, Ben tries to take pitches and draw walks, but he makes too good of contact with his swing. Someone pull up swing and miss statistics for me, I'd bet he's very far below the league average for missing on his cuts. If he takes a hack, he's putting the ball in play. It's not always good, solid contact obviously, but to me it seems it's rare where he doesn't get enough of the bat on the ball where he doesn't put it in fair territory. He has struck out in only 7.7% of his AB's, which if you wanted to know, is exactly half of Joe Mauer's 15.4% rate this year. Is there such a thing as too good of a "contact hitter"? If you're wanting Revere to draw more walks, I think your answer to this question is by default "Yes", no matter how you argue it because of that ability, he's just not one to foul a bunch of pitches off.

[Steve Lein]

I am an out of town Twins fan so I don't see many games and would rather pose a question to consistent viewers than make too many guesses. To my knowledge, the ball in target field carries further to left field than it does to right field. Using this assumption, this would mean there are more playable balls hit to right field vs left field ala more balls travel over the fence in left field and more plays are made at the warning track in right field. Because of this, it would make more sense to me to have a player with better range in right field because he will able to get to more balls as there are more playable balls hit to that area. My question to those on the board is, is this true?

 

No, that's not how it works. RF line is 328 feet, gap 367. LF line is 339 ft, gap 377. The deepest part of the field is just to the LF-side of dead center. It's the fact that there's a bunch more open ground to cover that allows you to take advantage of the range. Also, there are far more Right-handed hitters than left-handed, and batters tend to pull the ball more than push, thus by default and years upon years of proven data, far more balls are hit toward LF than RF. It's not about how the ball carries.

[snepp]

thus by default and years upon years of proven data, far more balls are hit toward LF than RF.

This data should be posted.

[DaveW]

This data should be posted.

Yeah, I'd be curious to see that as well but wouldn't be shocked since there quite a few more Right handed hitters then lefties.

[mnfireman]

According to baseball reference, Revere is right at league average for runners advancing the extra base, even with his very much below average arm. He has turned my opinion of him around. Congrats young master Revere and may you have continued success.

[Steve Lein]

Wow, I feel like my saying more balls are hit to LF than RF should be a known fact about the game of baseball to anyone who understands the fundamentals of it and basic understanding that there are twice as many RH hitters in the league than LH.

 

Anyway, here's some concrete numbers (it is from 2003, but it displays the point): http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/004551.php

 

This guy tallied every hitter in the league up to that point in the season who had over 200 batted balls in play. The percentage equates to the players propensity to pull the ball vs. push it. A value of 50% means on average, the player is hitting the ball to dead center. Notice in a list of 264 players, only NINE of them hit the ball the other way more than pulled. If you believe in the thought that 2/3 of players in MLB bat right-handed (which I guarantee it's very close to), that means 176 of those players are Right handed vs 88 left-handed. That's twice as many guys who tend to hit the ball toward LF more often than RF. That's all the math I feel like doing for the day...

 

/EndOfDiscussion

[Thrylos]

Hard to determine how good someone's arm is... Accuracy is another thing as well. For fun:

Fangraphs lists the "ARM" stat in their advance fielding stats (and it is one of the composites that make the UZR). Revere's this season is zero, which is league average. Last season was -3.9. Josh Willingham's this season is -0.6 and Span's 0.6, while last season, Span's was -1.8. So, really, gut feelings and suspicions aside, Revere's arm is not lacking that much in this OF... At some point, when Young, Gomez and Cuddyer were the OFs, the Twins did have strong arms out there. Not any more.

[snepp]

/notendofdiscussion

 

You do realize of course that small bit of minimally useful data includes all balls in play, a huge percentage of which never make it to the outfield in the first place. Or that ground balls are much more likely to be pulled than a fly ball is, and that balls hit to the opposite field are more likely to be a fly ball.

 

Total chances by corner outfielders (putouts + assists + errors).

 

Year / LF / RF

2012 04723 04954

2011 09794 10156

2010 09463 10253

2009 09866 10284

2008 09668 10464

2007 10065 10468

2006 09823 10516

2005 09831 10337

2004 09532 10566

2003 09956 10305

 

That's roughly 5.5% more "total chances" for right fielders over the last 10 years than left fielders. Obvious problems with TC, it doesn't tell us anything about how many balls were actually hit to them, just balls they were able to make a play on. It also doesn't account for quality of fielders, though I suspect that over a large enough sample the difference is minimal.

[Airmonos]

From baseball-reference.com

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01-field.shtml#advanced_fielding_rf::none

 

This might fall along the lines of small sample size, but in 51 chances this year, he has 24 holds (47.1%) and the league average is 46%. I don't think Ben Revere's arm is what is causing problems for the Twins this year.

[Guest USAFChief]

/notendofdiscussion

 

You do realize of course that small bit of minimally useful data includes all balls in play, a huge percentage of which never make it to the outfield in the first place. Or that ground balls are much more likely to be pulled than a fly ball is, and that balls hit to the opposite field are more likely to be a fly ball.

 

Total chances by corner outfielders (putouts + assists + errors).

 

Year / LF / RF

2012 04723 04954

2011 09794 10156

2010 09463 10253

2009 09866 10284

2008 09668 10464

2007 10065 10468

2006 09823 10516

2005 09831 10337

2004 09532 10566

2003 09956 10305

 

That's roughly 5.5% more "total chances" for right fielders over the last 10 years than left fielders. Obvious problems with TC, it doesn't tell us anything about how many balls were actually hit to them, just balls they were able to make a play on. It also doesn't account for quality of fielders, though I suspect that over a large enough sample the difference is minimal.

If you just go by putouts, which would be almost 100% fly balls (or line drives), it's even more pronounced. Over the last 10 years, for example, the AL leader in putouts for right fielders has averaged 7% more putouts than the AL leader for left fielders.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/PO_lf_leagues.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/PO_lf_leagues.shtml

[snepp]

If you just go by putouts, which would be almost 100% fly balls (or line drives), it's even more pronounced.

I thought about doing that, but I already had a bunch of the total chances looked up. Laziness ensued.

[Guest USAFChief]

I thought about doing that, but I already had a bunch of the total chances looked up. Laziness ensued.

Either way, it seems pretty clear more balls are hit in the air to right than left.

[Guest USAFChief]

Not even a discussion, the range wins over arm in every plane of existence. However, that doesn't mean he's a "good fit" in RF either. That's the one spot where you can't take a "maximum" advantage of his range nor minimize the effects of his arm.

 

I agree his arm hurts the team a bit more in right field vs left.

 

However, I do not understand the theory that Revere's range is somehow "worth more" in left field. Does Revere somehow run slower in right field? Does his range shrink?

 

Revere will get to "x" number of balls in the air, and that number doesn't change based on which side of the center fielder he's standing, unless you think Revere's "range" extends past the confines of right field but not left field. Which is, uh, preposterous.

[Oxtung]

I agree his arm hurts the team a bit more in right field vs left.

 

However, I do not understand the theory that Revere's range is somehow "worth more" in left field. Does Revere somehow run slower in right field? Does his range shrink?

 

Revere will get to "x" number of balls in the air, and that number doesn't change based on which side of the center fielder he's standing, unless you think Revere's "range" extends past the confines of right field but not left field. Which is, uh, preposterous.

Right field is smaller, albeit only slightly, at TF. So there is some reason to think his range is worth more in left field. The statistics about where most balls are hit to is interesting and could override the small difference in dimensions but none the less there is still a difference and that means an argument can be made that Revere's range plays better in left.

 

Another difference in right is the high wall. That could keep more balls in play and therefore require more throws back into the infield from distance. I suspect the number of balls hit off the wall is quite low however it is another small piece of information that can be used in this discussion about his arm vs. range.

[amjgt]

If there was ever a night that exemplified the importance of OF defense WAY beyond arm strength, tonight was the night.

[Curt]

I agree his arm hurts the team a bit more in right field vs left.

 

However, I do not understand the theory that Revere's range is somehow "worth more" in left field. Does Revere somehow run slower in right field? Does his range shrink?

 

Revere will get to "x" number of balls in the air, and that number doesn't change based on which side of the center fielder he's standing, unless you think Revere's "range" extends past the confines of right field but not left field. Which is, uh, preposterous.

Regarding the size of the field making a difference in the value of a fielder's range, look at the extremes.

 

1. Left field is a 3 x 3 foot square. Revere has no advantage over Willingham here because Willingham can get to any ball hit to left field in the same amount of time as Revere. Neither has to move.

 

2. Move the left-field fence out to six hundred feet. Willingham never gets off the bench because there will be two or three inside the park homers a game with him out there. Revere and other speedsters become much more valuable because he/they can cover the larger area in less time... perhaps only two or three inside the park homers a week.

 

The cop whose beat is a couple of blocks can easily walk it. The highway patrolman is completely ineffective without a car.

[Curt]

Regarding fielding chances in left and right field...

 

Using 2012 YTD data, about 70% of all plate appearances are against right-handed pitchers but the split on plate appearances by right-handed and left-handed batters is much closer, 53% to 47%.

 

[TABLE]

[TD=width: 86]Batter[/TD]

[TD=width: 86]Pitcher[/TD]

[TD=width: 86]Pct of PA[/TD]

R

R

33%

L

L

10%

R

L

20%

L

R

37%

[/TABLE]

 

If we assume that the ball is hit to the opposite field more often in lefty vs. lefty and righty vs. righty situations than when the pitcher and batters are opposite-handed, there would be much more opportunity for the opposite field to be right field (33% vs 10%).