Article: Engelb Vielma Is Making Noise

[Boone]

It’s time people start paying attention to Engelb Vielma. Having turned 21 a month ago, Vielma has been the starting shortstop for the Miracle this season. Always known as a top flight defensive prospect, the diminutive Vielma has done little to discourage that perception in his first two seasons of professional ball.in the Midwest League in 2014, Vielma posted a .636 OPS (a wRC+ of 84) and so far in 2015 his OPS sits at .648 (wRC+ of 99). Certainly, this represents a modest improvement, but it is nothing to get excited about. However, taking a closer look at Vielma’s monthly splits, it becomes clear that he has made some significant in-season improvements as a hitter.

 

 

The first thing that sticks out is how dreadful Vielma was in April and May—combined his OPS was .463—and how solid he has been since, posting an OPS of over .770 for three straight months. But overall, looking at five straight months of data like this has some flaws: for one, the sample sizes are relatively small; and two, it’s a little more difficult to pick up on trends' patterns. My solution to this is to create three, 3-month splits (April-June, May-July, June-August), similar to rolling periods used in the financial industry. Let’s take a look:

 

As you can see here, Vielma has made some pretty tremendous strides. This is especially true when looking at his plate discipline: his BB% has increased over each of these splits and his K% has fallen, leading to a consistent improvement in his BB/K ratio. Furthermore, while Vielma only improved modestly in these three categories from the 1sfirst split to the second, he has seen a dramatic improvement from the second split to the third split. And while Vielma’s isolated power has improved less consistently, his OPS has also improved by leaps and bounds.

 

Overall, Vielma’s numbers have improved—albeit rather modestly—from a year ago. Once again, he is walking more (6.1% to 6.3%) and striking out less (15.5% to 14.6%), which has certainly contributed to the modest increase in OPS (.636 to .649). And while this increase is small (and his power has decreased), it has been done in the context of a much difficult environment for hitters.

 

Clearly, Vielma has made terrific in-season improvements as a hitter. Combined with his modest overall improvement from a year ago, this suggests that he should be ready to begin 2016 in AA, despite rather mediocre season-long numbers.

 

Another important development for Vielma has been his base-stealing. As a player who has very limited power—and has shown no signs of developing any more—being able to create extra runs on the base paths will be necessary for Vielma to establish himself as a valuable offensive player. While I don’t have any statistics regarding Vielma’s ability to take an extra base after a hit, he has shown dramatic improvements as a base-stealer this year. In 2014, Vielma stole 10 bases on 16 attempts in 112 games. So far in 103 games this year, he has stolen 29 bases in 39 attempts. Not only has he stolen nearly 3 times as many bases as last season, Vielma has also greatly improved his success rate from a dreadful 62.5% (well below the 2014 Midwest League average of 68%) to a respectable 74% (well above the 2015 Florida State League average of 67%).

 

With Nick Gordon on his heels and Jorge Polanco ahead of him (not to mention Brian Dozier), Engelb Vielma will have a hard time becoming a starter for the Twins. But as a player who is stellar defensively, emerging as a base-stealer, and improving as a hitter, he has firmly established himself as a legitimate prospect worth watching.

 

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[rukavina]

good recognition.  he's 21.   he is an elite defensive shortstop, the best in the twins system.  my guess is that he will be a starting shortstop for someone in 3-4 years.

[clutterheart]

he has firmly established himself as a legitimate prospect worth watching.

 

 

He has?  Why?  He has always been a no bat good glove guy and this season isn't so different.  

His numbers is 2014:  .266/.313/.323  BABIP .313

His numbers is 2015:  .280/.325/.323  BABIP .327

 

The difference between this year and last is a few more hits are squibbing though.  He started the year cold and he is now getting back to his career norms.  He has had a nice end of the year but he needs to do it for a season.

 

He is an interesting prospect.  Speed + good D.  But 3 months of nice hitting doesn't mean you ignore his career stats.  If you look around at other systems, lots of teams have good glove no hit guys.  

I see him as organization filler, hopefully you are right and I am wrong.

[Tibs]

Maybe he and Nick Gordon should be lifting partners in the offseason

[Tibs]

 

He has?  Why?  He has always been a no bat good glove guy and this season isn't so different.  

His numbers is 2014:  .266/.313/.323  BABIP .313

His numbers is 2015:  .280/.325/.323  BABIP .327

 

The difference between this year and last is a few more hits are squibbing though.  He started the year cold and he is now getting back to his career norms.  He has had a nice end of the year but he needs to do it for a season.

 

He is an interesting prospect.  Speed + good D.  But 3 months of nice hitting doesn't mean you ignore his career stats.  If you look around at other systems, lots of teams have good glove no hit guys.  

I see him as organization filler, hopefully you are right and I am wrong.

Vielma deserves a bit more credit than this. Hitting .351 since the start of June deserves some more recognition than "nice hitting".

[Seth Stohs]

 

He has?  Why?  He has always been a no bat good glove guy and this season isn't so different.  

His numbers is 2014:  .266/.313/.323  BABIP .313

His numbers is 2015:  .280/.325/.323  BABIP .327

 

The difference between this year and last is a few more hits are squibbing though.  He started the year cold and he is now getting back to his career norms.  He has had a nice end of the year but he needs to do it for a season.

 

He is an interesting prospect.  Speed + good D.  But 3 months of nice hitting doesn't mean you ignore his career stats.  If you look around at other systems, lots of teams have good glove no hit guys.  

I see him as organization filler, hopefully you are right and I am wrong.

 

No one is saying that you need to ignore the past stats, but give the guy a little credit for moving up to a new league, experiencing the expected struggles and really coming on the last couple of months. He's made some sort of adjustment.

 

If he can post .650-.680 OPS all the way up, and eventually into the big leagues, with his defense, that makes for a pretty solid player.  Definitely one to watch. No one is saying he should be a top ten prospect, maybe not even top 20, but definitely one to watch. 

[Han Joelo]

Nice write up. I especially like the way you looked t the "rolling" three month splits.

[Steve Lein]

Thanks for writing this. I mentioned this about him in my 8/16 MiLB report.
 

Keith Law was super high on him two years ago, had him at #11 for Twins prospects.

 

We know he's the best defensive SS in the system, and it's probably not all that close.

 

But he entered June hitting under .200 and is now at .280. That's flat-out an amazing turnaround.

 

Nearly .350 in June, nearly .340 in July, and around .380 in August. That certainly should make anyone notice.

[Shane Wahl]

I would expect the same initial struggles at AA with the stick, but I imagine he can figure it out. Certainly not one to be rushed unless the Twins are playoff-bound next year and need a defensive SS for the playoffs.

[nicksaviking]

Very interesting monthly splits.  Clearly something happened in June, BABIP sure wouldn't explain the one time spike in BB% and dip in K%.  Just playing assumptions, his approach changed in June.  It sure looks like someone told him that he needs to start taking more pitches, which as a weak hitting middle infielder is something that likely seemed like common sense.

 

It looks like the numbers reverted closer to previous levels after June.  So what does that mean?  In the first part of the year he was swinging at everything, in June he swung at nothing but in doing so he started to learn to wait for better pitches to hit? 

 

Could all just be a fluke, but at least it's a fluke in a positive direction.

[Badsmerf]

Ahhh, I lost my post. Now I have to go through this again.

 

I think the argument here is that he is a "legitimate" prospect. To that statement, I couldn't disagree more. Sure, he has had a nice few months bringing his AVG up. But AVG is a small part of a hitter. His ISO is nearly stagnant, which suggests he isn't hitting the ball any better than he was early, just that more hits are falling. As a comparison, lets look at Nick Gordon, and his progress this season.

 

April      .267 .305 .347 15K 4BB    .08 ISO

May      .204 .305 .233 23K 13BB   .029 ISO

June     .293 .370 .341 11K 8BB     .048 ISO

July      .309 .349 .423 19K 7BB      .114 ISO

August .358 .393 .509 7K 3BB        .149 ISO

 

I realize Gordon is a top draft pick, and considered a better prospect. My point isn't to compare the two, rather, the progression. As you can see, Gordon has shown some amazing progress through the year. Most importantly, his plate discipline and ISO increase with his AVG. So not only is he getting more hits, he is driving more balls. 

 

Vielma still could have a future in the MLB. There are tons of examples of guys like him that hit just enough while playing excellent defense to stick around. His move to AA next year will be a pretty good test for him. 

[Boone]

 

I think the argument here is that he is a "legitimate" prospect. To that statement, I couldn't disagree more. Sure, he has had a nice few months bringing his AVG up. But AVG is a small part of a hitter. His ISO is nearly stagnant, which suggests he isn't hitting the ball any better than he was early, just that more hits are falling.

To some extent, you are accurate.  However, I would like to point out that Vielma's plate discipline has improved significantly.  When you strike out less and walk more, your average and OBP will increase (all else being equal). So an increased BABIP is only part of the story here.

 

Secondly, to your point about his ISO being "stagnant". While the .006 increase from the 1st split to the 3rd appears small, it’s actually fairly sizeable when considered as a percentage (16% to be exact). That's the same as someone with an ISO of .100 increasing to .116, or an ISO of .200 increasing to .232—certainly enough to make you wonder if harder contact is being made.  We should do the same with Vielma.

 

Regardless, at this point I think it's safe to say that his .794 OPS the last 2.5 months as well as his .568 OPS during the first 3 are probably inaccurate representations of his ability.  What we have seen is that Vielma is capable of making adjustments in the middle of a season, an important ability.

 

So even if his true self is the .650 OPS he posted in the middle split (which is also his year-long number), that is just about average for a FSL shortstop (based on wRC+).  Combined this with his youth, defense, baserunning/bastealing, and the aforementioned ability to make midseason adjustments, I think this makes Vielma a legitimate prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Secondly, to your point about his ISO being "stagnant". While the .006 increase from the 1st split to the 3rd appears small, it’s actually fairly sizeable when considered as a percentage (16% to be exact). That's the same as someone with an ISO of .100 increasing to .116, or an ISO of .200 increasing to .232—certainly enough to make you wonder if harder contact is being made.  We should do the same with Vielma.

No.  It's easier to increase a .037 ISO by 16%, because it is already so low, than it is to increase .200 by 16%.  The difference in the former is literally 1 extra base over 167 AB like Vielma had in the first sample.  The difference in the latter would be about 5-7 extra bases in the same sample.

 

A common example of this is batting average.  A hitter who is 0-for-19 will increase his AVG by .050 with a hit in his next AB.  Another hitter who is 9-for-19 will only increase his AVG by .026 with that same lone hit in his next AB.

[nicksaviking]

 

 Another hitter who is 9-for-19 will only increase his AVG by .026 with that same lone hit in his next AB.

 

Man, let's sign that guy who is 9-for-19.  That would be a revelation right about now!

 

 

[John Bonnes]

So to summarize:

1. He is the youngest players on the team,

2. playing a premium defensive position at a (reportedly) very high defensive level and

3. has a 636 OPS in a league with a 650 average OPS and....

4. plate discipline that is trending in the right direction....

5. at a position where the Twins seem to be short on solid options.

 

That sounds legitimate to me. I don't know if we're talking someone who is going to make a national prospect list, and he might need to fend off the guy behind him, but that seems like someone who could have a major league career, even as a starter. 

[Mike Sixel]

I just don't want a bottleneck. They both need promoting next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

"Engelb Vielma Is Making Noise"

 

Probably just him pronouncing his first name.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We know he's the best defensive SS in the system, and it's probably not all that close.

I hear stuff like this about Vielma but is he really that much better than Gordon?

 

I'm not arguing, it's an honest question.

[John Kelsey]

 

I hear stuff like this about Vielma but is he really that much better than Gordon?

 

I'm not arguing, it's an honest question.

 

After watching neither of them play ever, I can say definitively that he is. 

[Steve Lein]

 

I hear stuff like this about Vielma but is he really that much better than Gordon?

 

I'm not arguing, it's an honest question.

 

Yes, I would say he's better defensively than Gordon. He's got a good amount of "flash" that Gordon doesn't, and that's your difference.

 

Is also what makes Gordon rate "above average" on scouting scales, and Vielma "Plus" to "Plus-Plus" when it comes to defense.

 

After watching neither of them play ever, I can say definitively that he is. 

 

I've watched both of them play. Multiple times, and in multiple locations.

 

Come down to spring training with us sometime, or go to the MiLB's field near to us in Minnesota. You'll see things!!!