Article: Passing The Torch

[tobi0040]

 

Your assumptions are: 

1. Hicks BABIP against LHP must go down
2. Hicks hitting against RHP stays the same.

I dispute both points. 

 

Statistics are a single point in time:  per AB, per game, per month, per season, etc.  It's not totally unrealistic that Hicks can sustain that BABIP.  Limited AB's from his natural swing against a limited number of LHP's. 

 

#2: That's an assumption that he can not improve.  Hicks has improved this year and I see no reason why that suddenly stops.  Just like I don't assume what Buxton can be based on 11 games at AAA.

 

1. Miguel Cabrera has a career BABIP of .348. Evenly split .348 vs. right and left handers

2. Miguel Cabrea >>>>>>> Aaron Hicks

 

Aaron Hicks will not over any length of time have a BABIP of .417 in any matchup

 

 

Edited August 17, 2015 by tobi0040

[Linus]

 

1. Miguel Cabrera has a career BABIP of .348. Evenly split .348 vs. right and left handers

2. Miguel Cabrea >>>>>>> Aaron Hicks

 

Aaron Hicks will not over any length of time have a BABIP of .417 in any matchup

Correct.  But he is still figuring things out so its possible that he will continue to improve as a left handed hitter and make for a fine defense-first right fielder or a valuable trade chip as a CF.

[Loosey]

I think the team really has to give Kepler a taste of the Majors this season.  Buxton should be up as soon as possible to continue his development.  My opinion on the 4 outfielders the Twins should be carrying next year would be Buxton, Hicks, Rosario and Kepler if he proves the real deal.

 

Kepler can play 1st as well so that spells Mauer, which is good.  If Plouffe is traded Sano gets majority of 3B reps and a position opens up for a "thumper" DH in Arcia or whichever non-fielding hitter performs the best.

[tobi0040]

 

Correct.  But he is still figuring things out so its possible that he will continue to improve as a left handed hitter and make for a fine defense-first right fielder or a valuable trade chip as a CF.

 

I agree he has room to improve and is adding value now.  Still could in the future.  But the .417 number is going to fall a ton.

[Badsmerf]

 

Your assumptions are: 

1. Hicks BABIP against LHP must go down
2. Hicks hitting against RHP stays the same.

I dispute both points. 

 

Statistics are a single point in time:  per AB, per game, per month, per season, etc.  It's not totally unrealistic that Hicks can sustain that BABIP.  Limited AB's from his natural swing against a limited number of LHP's. 

 

#2: That's an assumption that he can not improve.  Hicks has improved this year and I see no reason why that suddenly stops.  Just like I don't assume what Buxton can be based on 11 games at AAA.

I'm not disputing the advances Hicks had made, simply that he is more deserving of playing time in CF than Buxton. I think Hicks still has a chance to be nice CF for a team. His splits are just so incredibly drastic, that it would be difficult for me to hand over RF to him in 2016 with a back-up option. However, I assume Kepler is that option so the Twins are set. 

 

Hicks has improved against RHP this season, and that is encouraging. If he has a nice year going at the deadline next year maybe he can be flipped for something of value to a team in need of a CF. I don't however, believe he should be getting in the way of Buxton's playing/development time in CF for the rest of this season. Buxton proved he is healthy in AAA, that should be good enough. 

 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

I want Buxton here in place of a pitcher. I also think that Hicks should play left field, not right. I believe Rosario would be the superior right fielder immediately and with time Hicks would be a little better in left than Eddie. Plouffe is an everyday third baseman, who has played a few games at first to accommodate the phenom. It makes far more sense to trade him for value than make him into a guy who moves all over the field.

 

I presume, without another OF being signed, that Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton have the lead for the three starting position next year. The other outfielder to start ST would be the out of options Arcia, with Kepler being given a shot to join the club, but most likely starting in AAA.

[tobi0040]

 

without another OF being signed

 

I sincerely hope we won't be adding an OF this off-season.  Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Walker, etc.  Just no.

[HitInAPinch]

 

1. Miguel Cabrera has a career BABIP of .348. Evenly split .348 vs. right and left handers

2. Miguel Cabrea >>>>>>> Aaron Hicks

 

Aaron Hicks will not over any length of time have a BABIP of .417 in any matchup

 

Miguel Cabrera is not a switch hitter.  Miguel Cabrera is not Aaron Hicks

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm not disputing the advances Hicks had made, simply that he is more deserving of playing time in CF than Buxton. I think Hicks still has a chance to be nice CF for a team. His splits are just so incredibly drastic, that it would be difficult for me to hand over RF to him in 2016 with (without?) a back-up option. However, I assume Kepler is that option so the Twins are set. 

 

Hicks has improved against RHP this season, and that is encouraging. If he has a nice year going at the deadline next year maybe he can be flipped for something of value to a team in need of a CF. I don't however, believe he should be getting in the way of Buxton's playing/development time in CF for the rest of this season. Buxton proved he is healthy in AAA, that should be good enough. 

 

OK, you weren't exactly saying what I thought you were saying.  My apologies. 

 

I don't have the evidence in front of me, but I speculate that you will see somewhat similar splits with all switch hitters.  Simply because there aren't that many ambidextrous people out there and even fewer in the MLB.  Ken Brett is the last I can remember.  

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

I want Buxton here in place of a pitcher. I also think that Hicks should play left field, not right. I believe Rosario would be the superior right fielder immediately and with time Hicks would be a little better in left than Eddie. Plouffe is an everyday third baseman, who has played a few games at first to accommodate the phenom. It makes far more sense to trade him for value than make him into a guy who moves all over the field.

 

I presume, without another OF being signed, that Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton have the lead for the three starting position next year. The other outfielder to start ST would be the out of options Arcia, with Kepler being given a shot to join the club, but most likely starting in AAA.

You've got me really curious about that statement.  I haven't seen that much of either in the field.  Is Rosario's arm better than Hicks?  Or is it that Rosario has a better understanding of  positioning, angles and situational play?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You've got me really curious about that statement.  I haven't seen that much of either in the field.  Is Rosario's arm better than Hicks?  Or is it that Rosario has a better understanding of  positioning, angles and situational play?

I'd put Hicks in RF because more balls are hit to right. Both Rosario and Hicks have good range and arms but I'd give the nod to Aaron in both categories. Therefore, he gets the more premium defensive position.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'd put Hicks in RF because more balls are hit to right. Both Rosario and Hicks have good range and arms but I'd give the nod to Aaron in both categories. Therefore, he gets the more premium defensive position.

Is that true? I've always believed more balls are hit to LF because there are far more right-handed hitters. I'd be curious to see an overall distribution chart though.

Either way, I do agree Hicks seems like a more natural fit in right, mainly because of his arm (not that Rosario's is too shabby).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is that true? I've always believed more balls are hit to LF because there are far more right-handed hitters. I'd be curious to see an overall distribution chart though.

 

Either way, I do agree Hicks seems like a more natural fit in right, mainly because of his arm (not that Rosario's is too shabby).

I always assumed more balls went to left as well but apparently, the inverse is true.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/4/3/5576220/right-field-skill-position

[Steve Lein]

 

I always assumed more balls went to left as well but apparently, the inverse is true.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/4/3/5576220/right-field-skill-position

 

Interesting side conversation...

 

That article doesn't match data I've pulled before but I don't remember exactly the data set I was looking at. Can't remember if it was all balls hit to the OF, or all batted balls in general. Either way, my percentages came out to 22.5% toward LF, 57.1% toward CF, and 20.4% toward RF...

 

Other interesting data for that particular year, was that RH-hitters "pulled" (to LF) 26.5% of all batted balls, and "pushed" (to RF) 16.2% of them. 

 

LH-hitters "pulled" (to RF) 25.9%, and "pushed" (to LF) 17.3%.

 

Anyway, I don't know why you'd want Hicks in LF and Rosario in RF, though. Hicks has a significantly better arm, which is why RF makes the most sense for him. The longest throw in the field you have to consider when it comes to an arm is RF to 3B (i.e.: a LF-er is almost never throwing the ball to 1B).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting side conversation...

 

That article doesn't match data I've pulled before but I don't remember exactly the data set I was looking at. Can't remember if it was all balls hit to the OF, or all batted balls in general. Either way, my percentages came out to 22.5% toward LF, 57.1% toward CF, and 20.4% toward RF...

 

Other interesting data for that particular year, was that RH-hitters "pulled" (to LF) 26.5% of all batted balls, and "pushed" (to RF) 16.2% of them.

 

LH-hitters "pulled" (to RF) 25.9%, and "pushed" (to LF) 17.3%.

 

Anyway, I don't know why you'd want Hicks in LF and Rosario in RF, though. Hicks has a significantly better arm, which is why RF makes the most sense for him. The longest throw in the field you have to consider when it comes to an arm is RF to 3B (i.e.: a LF-er is almost never throwing the ball to 1B).

There was a really long thread on this topic 1-2 years ago here on TD. Posters did a lot of research and I recall we pretty definitively decided RF received more balls, though I could be misremembering. I went into the conversation thinking LF would be the clear winner, which is why I remember the thread.

 

Any posters remember that thread?

[h2oface]

 

What?!?!?  What have you got against Hicks?  Has he not consistently continued to develop this year into a player that is deserving of regular playing time in CF?

 

ATM:  Buxton is well deserving of a Sept call-up.  Reasons:

1. You don't take a player on an incredible hot streak away from an MiLB affiliate prior to their playoffs.  As an organizational man, would you want a lot of empty seats in Rochester?  How mad would the locals be?
2. 11 games, 47 AB's.  Not sure on what sample size is appropriate..........

This has been a great discovery year for the Twins, giving them a clear picture of what they have and what they need.  I don't really expect them to be in the hunt after this next set of series.  Let Buxton hang out in Rochester and pad his stats.  In Sept, since there's a lot more roster room, bring him up with ABW, Kepler, among others.  They're the one's that get to rotate, for what he has done this year, Aaron Hicks is the deserving starter.

 

A short stint in Rochester, to me, does not mean that Buxton is a Red Wing with obligations. I like getting him up to qualify for the post season if it still looks like it has a possibility of happening. I mean, if minor league playoffs was the priority, then why not send him to Chattanooga? He was there longer. Doesn't he owe them more? See....... the only thing that really matters is the MLB team. Rochester has Arcia and Vargas and Santana. That ought to be enough.

 

In regard to who plays centerfield - if Buxton is the best of two exceptional choices defensively, then what does it matter if Hicks is in right? Hicks knows what the future is looking like, and best to get on with it sooner than later.

 

When is comes to sample size - might as well take the small samples of hotness and use them instead of waiting the the fall. That great small sample could be generated in the show instead of AAA.

Edited August 17, 2015 by h2oface

[HitInAPinch]

 

A short stint in Rochester, to me, does not mean that Buxton is a Red Wing with obligations. I like getting him up to qualify for the post season if it still looks like it has a possibility of happening. I mean, if minor league playoffs was the priority, then why not send him to Chattanooga? He was there longer. Doesn't he owe them more? See....... the only thing that really matters is the MLB team. Rochester has Arcia and Vargas and Santana. That ought to be enough.

 

In regard to who plays centerfield - if Buxton is the best of two exceptional choices defensively, then what does it matter if Hicks is in right? Hicks knows what the future is looking like, and best to get on with it sooner than later.

 

When is comes to sample size - might as well take the small samples of hotness and use them instead of waiting the the fall. That great small sample could be generated in the show instead of AAA.

Well, the MiLB is the lifeblood of the MLB.  Especially for the Twins.  It's the ONLY blood.  So you really do need to keep those cities happy.

 

I find it a little hard to believe that Hicks would just rollover for Buxton to take over CF. 

 

And remember what happened in the previous 2 shots by Hicks and the brief stint by Buxton.  I don't believe Buxton is quite ready for the MLB, but getting pretty darn close.

[SwainZag]

 

Well, the MiLB is the lifeblood of the MLB.  Especially for the Twins.  It's the ONLY blood.  So you really do need to keep those cities happy.

 

I find it a little hard to believe that Hicks would just rollover for Buxton to take over CF. 

 

And remember what happened in the previous 2 shots by Hicks and the brief stint by Buxton.  I don't believe Buxton is quite ready for the MLB, but getting pretty darn close.

 

Hicks isn't going to have a choice.  If Buxton and Hicks are on the same team in the same outfield, Buxton will be in Center.

[stringer bell]

I would like to see the more aggressive Rosario in right. There is slightly less area in right, and Eddie has played a dozen or so games in right, so he is more experienced playing the multi-surface wall. As for throwing, I don't think the difference is great and what difference there is in strength is made up for by his accuracy and aggressiveness in charging balls.

[Linus]

 

I sincerely hope we won't be adding an OF this off-season.  Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Walker, etc.  Just no.

I have to respectfully disagree.  Counting on a small number of relatively unproven players without back up options is how you end up with black holes.  All of the options you listed are still unproven: some less than others but others with no basis for counting on them for the big club next season.  I see no reason not to sign a veteran outfielder so long as they know that the kids are going to get the first chance.

[Badsmerf]

There was a really long thread on this topic 1-2 years ago here on TD. Posters did a lot of research and I recall we pretty definitively decided RF received more balls, though I could be misremembering. I went into the conversation thinking LF would be the clear winner, which is why I remember the thread.

 

Any posters remember that thread?

I remember it. I do remember the same conclusion as well. I believe it came to light when Revere was in rf. I recall the same conclusion, but I don't think Gardy deserves credit for the decision to put Revere there.

 

I don't remember who presented the data, just reading it.

[tobi0040]

 

I have to respectfully disagree.  Counting on a small number of relatively unproven players without back up options is how you end up with black holes.  All of the options you listed are still unproven: some less than others but others with no basis for counting on them for the big club next season.  I see no reason not to sign a veteran outfielder so long as they know that the kids are going to get the first chance.

 

Here is where it gets tricky.  I whole-heartedly agree with you.  If we signed a veteran guy to be the 4th OF that was cheap, had a low ceiling but could step in if other guys flamed out that would in theory be a good idea.

 

The reality is you can't give this franchise guys like Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, or Shane Robinson.  They have repeatedly proven to trust veterans more than prospects, even when the prospects are playing better.  Robinson has 160 AB's this year and literally nobody has been injured in front of him. We kept Pelfrey in the rotation over May and Berrios.

 

Up until a few weeks ago Robinson had a .610 OPS.  Since 6/1, Hunter has a slash line of .205/.261/.384/.645 and has received 240 AB's.  Pelfrey and Milone are seeing double the innings of May.

 

Just No.

 

 

Edited August 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[Vance_Christianson]

 

 If we are moving Plouffe off of 3B, I would have to assume he has more value to the Twins in a trade rather than moving him to a crowded OF situation, especially with a long contract looming or more than likely 6+M in arbitration or a 1 year deal.

Plouffe would strictly be a super utility type player for us next year. He can give the 3 musketeers a day off once in awhile, Sano, and Mauer, and it won't affect our lineup for once, and when he isn't doing that then he can play DH. Injuries happen, so why not keep some good depth like Plouffe. Good attitude, hard worker, great clubhouse guy, sweet beard, hot wife, etc.... I'd spend $6mil or so a year on him no problem. Do it for just 2016, and by then guys like Kepler, Walker, Michael, Harrison should be really close or ready to go in 2017.

I'd rather have Plouffe as my DH/Utility anyday over Arcia, Vargas, Pinto, and Hunter. Just my 2 cents.

[tobi0040]

 

Plouffe would strictly be a super utility type player for us next year. He can give the 3 musketeers a day off once in awhile, Sano, and Mauer, and it won't affect our lineup for once, and when he isn't doing that then he can play DH. Injuries happen, so why not keep some good depth like Plouffe. Good attitude, hard worker, great clubhouse guy, sweet beard, hot wife, etc.... I'd spend $6mil or so a year on him no problem. Do it for just 2016, and by then guys like Kepler, Walker, Michael, Harrison should be really close or ready to go in 2017.

I'd rather have Plouffe as my DH/Utility anyday over Arcia, Vargas, Pinto, and Hunter. Just my 2 cents.

 

I think Plouffe would likely provide more value via trade than in a super utility role. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think Plouffe would likely provide more value via trade than in a super utility role. 

Yeah, he's not Ben Zobrist. If a guy with Trevor's bat (and glove at third) can't play an up the middle position, it's probably better to trade him than try to rotate him around the diamond.

 

He has a decent bat for third. His glove is good at third. Neither his bat nor his glove are as valuable doing down the defensive scale.