AA and AAA

[Badsmerf]

  shanewahl said:

I agree with the idea, but it just hasn't worked so far (of late). Parmelee's 2012 season is a damn disaster. What a waste. Same with Tosoni and even Revere last year. I am flabbergasted by the notion that Dozier, Parmelee, Solarte, Benson, and Herrmann were better off in 2011 not getting promoted to AAA at the beginning of August so they could see the next level of pitching and build towards facing MLB pitching this year. Christ, Solarte was lost either because of the Twins being stupid or his awareness that the Twins promote so damn slowly and inappropriately at times.

 

Would anyone seriously look at this organization and say that Dozier, Parmelee, and Benson wouldn't have benefitted from 100 PAs at AAA last year?

No. The jump just isn't that significant. Pitchers are more polished, but with less stuff in many cases. Parmelee's 2012 season is not a disaster. The Twins have misused him and he is killing it in AAA. Still plenty of potential to be a solid big leaguer (blocked by Morneau for now). Dozier is starting to show signs of adjusting well to MLB pitching, and only had 116 PA in AAA. Benson was up with the Twins, getting much more valuable experience.

 

There is just more talent in AA. AAA is the staging level. When you have a prospect that is ready (via Dozier 2012) they go to AAA until a spot opens up. Or, prospects (Revere 2012) are sent down to refine something and get called back up when they have done it. When one of the AA guys gets called up to AAA we can take it as a sign the Twins think they are close to being ready. Of course you have the fillers and fringe prospects too, but I think we can sort through that well enough.

[Shane Wahl]

  Badsmerf said:

No. The jump just isn't that significant. Pitchers are more polished, but with less stuff in many cases. Parmelee's 2012 season is not a disaster. The Twins have misused him and he is killing it in AAA. Still plenty of potential to be a solid big leaguer (blocked by Morneau for now). Dozier is starting to show signs of adjusting well to MLB pitching, and only had 116 PA in AAA. Benson was up with the Twins, getting much more valuable experience.

 

There is just more talent in AA. AAA is the staging level. When you have a prospect that is ready (via Dozier 2012) they go to AAA until a spot opens up. Or, prospects (Revere 2012) are sent down to refine something and get called back up when they have done it. When one of the AA guys gets called up to AAA we can take it as a sign the Twins think they are close to being ready. Of course you have the fillers and fringe prospects too, but I think we can sort through that well enough.

You claim to disagree but then make my point. You mention Parmelee and Revere. Revere went back to AAA in 2012 and is remarkably different now. Parmelee was wasted in MLB before being in his rightful spot right now. The "staging" level seems pretty damn important!

[Clyde]

  shanewahl said:

You claim to disagree but then make my point. You mention Parmelee and Revere. Revere went back to AAA in 2012 and is remarkably different now. Parmelee was wasted in MLB before being in his rightful spot right now. The "staging" level seems pretty damn important!

Perhaps it is worthwile for a high ceiling prospect to jump to the majors from AA. If they work out like Mauer, great. If it works like Mourneau, Cuddyer and Kubel, that is fine They also went AA, majors, back down to AAA. They would have a clearer pictue of whaat they need to work on to succede at the major league level. Appears to be working for Revere after a second trip.

[diehardtwinsfan]

this conversation is getting ridiculous... can a guy skip AA? Yes, it happens, typically with the best prospects, some succeed and some fail... Is AAA a bit harder than AA. Yes. Is it wise to skip AAA? It depepnds. Can AAA help? Most certainly.

[Pius Jefferson]

  diehardtwinsfan said:

this conversation is getting ridiculous... can a guy skip AA? Yes, it happens, typically with the best prospects, some succeed and some fail... Is AAA a bit harder than AA. Yes. Is it wise to skip AAA? It depepnds. Can AAA help? Most certainly.

Is that you Brett Favre?

[diehardtwinsfan]

shh

[drjim]

  shanewahl said:

You claim to disagree but then make my point. You mention Parmelee and Revere. Revere went back to AAA in 2012 and is remarkably different now. Parmelee was wasted in MLB before being in his rightful spot right now. The "staging" level seems pretty damn important!

I guess I don't see how Hicks and Arcia are ready for this level yet. They are doing fine at AA but they clearly have things to work on and they aren't quite forcing the issue. There is nothing wrong with having them put on more polish at AA. Herrmann is probably ready for AAA, but there isn't exactly a place for him on the Twins and won't be at the start of next season either. He'll bump up out of spring next year and be ready to roll if someone gets hurt.

 

I don't really get the idea of making the minors some huge race to the top. Just because you can read some numbers and think they have done something for a couple of months at a level doesn't mean quite as much on the ground. Twins are definitely conservative in general, but they'll push a guy when he is proven to be ready, not push a guy until the point where he fails.

[70charger]

  Pius Jefferson said:

Is that you Brett Favre?

 

Heh.

 

I think the ultimate point here is that trying to make comparisons using different players is a fool's game. Some are simply better players than others; some need less development than others; etc. If you make comparisons looking at the same players' AA stats versus their AAA stats, I think you're making a better comparison, but even that is muddied by the fact that, once ready for AAA, players are usually better than they were at AA. The statistical argument to be made here is probably at the PhD level. I'm the first to admit that I'm not at that level.

 

By impressions, I think AAA is a higher level of ball. Most players, with a few stars (and some need-based callups) excepted, need AAA, and they're commensurately better there than at AA. Some players top out at AAA/Quad-A to be sure, but that seems more like a comparison to the majors.

[Rosterman]

I think the Twins have to consider if they wish to 40-man Bigley or not, which is why he is AAA bound for a month.

[Shane Wahl]

I just wish that they would promote and give 100+ at bats this year to these guys instead of what they did to Parmelee, Tosoni, and Revere before,

[Seth Stohs]

  Rosterman said:

I think the Twins have to consider if they wish to 40-man Bigley or not, which is why he is AAA bound for a month.

They haven't really considered it the last two years, and I really don't think the the Twins will consider adding Bigley this offseason either. They already have to add guys like Hicks and Gibson and more. Bigley is up in AAA right now because he wouldn't play ahead of any of the prospects at AA. (Hicks, Arcia, Benson or Tosoni)