Article: Did Miguel Sano's Homers Cause Perseid Meteor Showers?

[Seth Stohs]

Each night this week, before I went to bed, I would go outside. In the clear, dark night, I looked up into the sky and saw the Perseids meteor shower. On Monday and Tuesday nights, there were quite a few in the sky, maybe one every couple of minutes.

 

This morning, I woke up a little before 4:00 a.m. Nature called, so I went outside which is why it’s so nice living in the country. In the fifteen minutes that I was out there, I bet I saw 100 meteors flying through the sky. While standing out there, I couldn’t help but wonder which flying objects in the sky were Miguel Sano home runs.

 

On Wednesday night, Sano launched two home runs well over 400 feet. He now has seven home runs in 135 plate appearances. He is hitting .295/.409/.571 (.980) with ten doubles, seven homers and 25 RBI.Of course, seeing that performance brought me back to the first time I saw Miguel Sano homer. In 2012, I saw six Beloit Snappers games. It was their final season as the Twins Midwest League affiliate. It was my third year of going to some games there, and since then, I have been going to see games in Cedar Rapids.

 

 

That 2012 Snappers lineup was very interesting. Eddie Rosario batted third. Miguel Sano batted fourth. Kennys Vargas batted fifth. Eddie Rosario was playing second base. In my opinion, he was a good athlete, but it was clear that second base wasn’t going to be a good option. Miguel Sano was at third base. In the first two games I saw him play, I saw his struggles on defense. On one play, there was a bounding ground ball that he had to charge, he pushed the ball nearly to the first base dugout. I also saw him drop a pop-up. It wasn’t pretty.

 

When I went back to Beloit a couple of months later for four games, Rosario looked competent at second base. Miguel Sano looked really good at third base. He looked much more prepared before each pitch. He displayed softer hands and made all the plays. He always displayed a very powerful arm.

 

I saw him taking ground balls at shortstop during batting practice and asked his coach, Tommy Watkins, about it. Watkins told me that they encouraged him to take grounders at short and to move around in the outfield during batting practice. Why? To remind him that he is a great athlete, that he can move his feet, and that he can still do those things at third base.

 

The sixth Snappers game I saw, Sano had not yet hit a home run. I wondered if I just wouldn’t see one. However, in either his second or third at-bat, he displayed his tremendous power. He launched a drive to right-center field. In Beloit, there was a tall sign behind the wall. The ball traveled over that sign. Opposite field. It was the kind of raw power that we had heard about, but to see it from the then-19-year-old was impressive. To that point, I had seen him hit some vicious line drives for hits and line outs. The talent was clear, but to see that kind of home run power was remarkable.

 

 

People in Cedar Rapids told me that they rarely see home runs travel over their batter’s eye in center field. They said that Sano and Vargas each did it that year when they played the Kernels in Cedar Rapids.

 

He spent that full season with the Snappers and hit 28 home runs in the regular season, plus two more in the playoffs. He had hit 20 home runs in the short season in Elizabethton a year earlier, one less than teammate Eddie Rosario’s league-leading 21. In 2013, he began the season in Ft. Myers, and the day after the Miracle clinched the first-half division title, he (and Rosario) were promoted to AA New Britain. In all that season, Sano hit 35 home runs.

 

At Twins Fest in January 2014, Sano was doing a media session. He answered several questions about his elbow and his size and such. I prefaced a question to him by saying “You hit 30 homers in Beloit, and then hit 35 home runs last year…” Sano looked at me and a big smile came upon his face. I continued, “What is your goal for 2014? 40?”

 

The smile grew as he said, in much-improved English, “Maybe 45. Maybe 50.” He also talked about how important it was for him to take a lot of walks too.

 

With Sano, it doesn’t come across as bragging. He is clearly a kid who knows that he is immensely talented and he has big goals for himself. He doesn’t just want to be good. He wants to be great.

 

It was clear to me after that day that Miguel Sano would be a superstar. Not just an all-star, but a superstar. He has the immense talent as the baseline, but he has the personality that fans will love.

 

Of course, he missed the 2014 season after having Tommy John surgery. We had no idea how he would come back in 2015, or how long it would take to shake off the rust. He began the season back at AA, this time in Chattanooga. He struggled. Manager Doug Mientkiewicz gave Sano two straight games off (April 26 and 27) as a ‘mental break’ because of his struggles. After going 0-3 on May 1, Sano was hitting .150/.292/.333 (.625) with 20 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances.

 

From May 2nd through June 29^th, Sano hit .320/.403/.611 (1.014) with 16 doubles and 11 home runs. He also reduced his strikeout rate. On June 30^th, he was called up to the Twins.

 

And he has continued to hit ever since. He hit .455 (10-22) in his first seven games, including at least one hit in each game. He also has 45 strikeouts in 135 plate appearances, which is awful. However, he also has 23 walks to go with the ten doubles and seven home runs.

 

It will be fascinating to see how Sano’s career turns out. Obviously the strikeout rate will need to be reduced. However, after needing to make adjustments through each level of the Twins minor league system, he is at the pinnacle of the game. He will have to prove that he can continue to make adjustments and improve. The type of plate appearances that he is having, despite the strikeouts, is encouraging. He can do it.

 

We almost forget that before the 2014 season, Miguel Sano was a top ten prospect according to Baseball America. He was ranked as the top third base prospect in baseball, ahead of the Cubs’ Kris Bryant. Now fully healthy and recovered, Sano is reminding us all of why.

 

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I wish I had started going to the Twins Midwest League affiliate sooner. The first year that I went was 2010. I went to Beloit and watched them play two games against, ironically, the Cedar Rapids Kernels. The Kernels were led by 18-year-old outfielder Mike Trout, who was clearly the best player on the field. Aaron Hicks was the Snappers centerfielder. The two starting pitchers I saw were Edgar Ibarra and Michael Tonkin. The first game we saw, Brian Dozier was the shortstop. Following the game, he was promoted to Ft. Myers. Danny Santana was promoted and started at shortstop that next night. He had three errors and went 0-5 with three strikeouts, but even then his tools and athletic talent were on display.

 

In 2011, I saw starts from Tonkin, AJ Achter and Ryan O’Rourke.

 

2012 is when I saw six games, two early in the season and four late in the season. Aside from Rosario, Sano and Vargas, Danny Ortiz and Nate Roberts (and his mustache) were on the team.

 

 

 

In 2013, the Twins moved their affiliate to Cedar Rapids and then provided them with a stacked roster. I was there for their first three games and then for two or three games later in the season. Taylor Rogers was the opening night starter. Tyler Duffey threw seven innings of a no-hitter in his first start for them. JO Berrios joined the rotation a month after the season began because he had pitched out of the Puerto Rico bullpen in the WBC and needed to be stretched out. Jorge Polanco was the first player from this team to make the big leagues. Byron Buxton joined him in June. When Buxton was promoted to Ft. Myers, Max Kepler joined the team. Travis Harrison, Dalton Hicks and Adam Brett Walker provided a ton of power.

 

 

Kohl Stewart was the headliner for the 2014 Cedar Rapids team, but I saw Lewis Thorpe make a start there. Stephen Gonsalves arrived later too. I was there for Nick Burdi’s professional debut.

 

I was there for Opening Day this year and the Kernels first three games this year. Nick Gordon stood out as the top prospect, but there is a lot of talent on this roster.

I mention this because it is fun for me to see the future and see the talent. I can then see beyond the box scores and do my own scouting on the Twins prospects.

 

 

So can you. The Kernels also do a great job of entertaining fans between innings and with fireworks shows after a number of the games. They have 12 more home games on their schedule before they will play at least one home playoff game. If you have a chance to get to a couple of them, you’ll enjoy it. I’m still hoping to get down there for another series this year… maybe.

 

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[twinssouth]

Sano is something to watch. Even his fly outs are exciting. One night I saw him, he went 0 for 4 and every ball was hammered to deep left or center, ball literally going into orbit. Takes for ever for the ball to come down, we're all like where's the ball. What a great game last night.

[Dman]

Sign Sano to an extension before it is too late.  Need to keep this guy in a Twins uniform as long as possible.

[HitInAPinch]

The 1st HR was impressive.  Low and inside, Sano calmly turned on it.  After that, the Ranger pitchers were really throwing a lot of meatballs.  Yum, Yum :-)

[Craig Arko]

Better have somebody good to protect him or he won't be seeing many meatballs in the future.

[USMCTwin]

 

Better have somebody good to protect him or he won't be seeing many meatballs in the future.

 

This.  IIRC both times he hit HR's last night they had first base open.  I know he's a rookie that strikes out quite a bit and I am not sure I would advocate intentionally walking him, but I sure would consider pitching around him.

[DRizzo]

How long before we see Sano hit one deeper than Stanton did at the 2014 Home Run Derby? Is it completely unrealistic to think he might HIT the scoreboard in left field one day?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Better have somebody good to protect him or he won't be seeing many meatballs in the future.

I was really hoping that somebody would be Arcia or Vargas.  Walking Sano would force the opposing team to throw strikes to Arcia or Vargas.  Not sure either is up to the task yet.  Dozier may be a better choice right now.  He's still feeding on high fastballs [or so it seems]. 

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Our family is on our way to Iowa in a little over a week. We'll catch the Kernels in Clinton on Sunday afternoon, and then take in one or more home games the following week. 

 

For campers--a hint: Maquoketa Caves State Park is less than an hour from Cedar Rapids, and forty-five minutes from Dyersville, home of the "Field of Dreams" site. The park is annually regarded the best campground in Iowa, with amazing limestone caves and hiking trails that pass through the unique rock formations. We're also planning a day trip to Des Moines for an Iowa Cubs game--Ernie Banks Jersey Day!! 

[Halsey Hall]

I was so looking forward to seeing Sano in the bigs since the first day I met him when he was 16 years old. It really hurt when he lost a season, but now he's here and even doing better than I had imagined.  Time fly's.  He'll be around for a long time and could set some hard to reach records. Seeing this is really satisfying. 

[bird]

Thanks for looking back on your trips to see A-ball, Seth. In looking at the current Kernels roster, I'm struggling to get very excited about players there other than perhaps Gonsalves and Gordon, and even those two don't evoke the kind of optimism for me that guys like Berrios, Polanco or Rosario did.

 

You say they have a lot of talent, and their record shows it, but I'm curious about who you think is emerging as possible MLB regulars in the future outside of those two guys.

[nytwinsfan]

Hate to be the downer on this delightful morning after quite the show, but Sano's BABIP is sitting at an unsustainable .419 right now. He is going to need to reduce his strikeouts a bit if he is going to keep up anywhere near this level of production. I only mention this because nobody else has.

 

All of that being said, he is barely 22, just coming off a full year of injury, and visually is taking fantastic at bats with excellent strike zone judgment. I have little doubt he will make adjustments and improve his K rate. I also think his batted ball profile, which so far has been heavily line drives and fly balls, is probably built for a higher BABIP than the average player, but there is no way it remains above .400 or in the high .300s in the long-run.

[John Kelsey]

I heard one of his home run balls last night hit the roof over at First Ave. 

[drock2190]

Those that are worried about Babip is ridiculous. His Babip was like .600 a couple weeks ago, it's still leveling off.

 

He's not a Danny Santana who's value comes from his batting average. Expect him to hit in the .260 range or so in the long run which is perfectly acceptable.

[hybridbear]

 He also talked about how important it was for him to take a lot of walks too.

This is very good to hear. I hope he can continue to refine his pitch recognition & strike zone feel to reduce his K rate while continuing to have a high OBP due to walks.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Those that are worried about Babip is ridiculous. His Babip was like .600 a couple weeks ago, it's still leveling off.

He's not a Danny Santana who's value comes from his batting average. Expect him to hit in the .260 range or so in the long run which is perfectly acceptable.

 

Agreed, a .260 batting average is acceptable, but it would also drop his OBP .40 points and his slugging like .60 or .80 or something. And given his current BABIP, if his BABIP were to come down to a still pretty high .350, that would probably drop him closer to .250 or .240.  All that being said, if you read what I said, I'm clearly not "worried" about his BABIP. I am just pointing out that his current production (which is top 5 hitter in baseball level) is not sustainable with his current BABIP. I just don't want some people to filp out when he likely ends the year at around a .255/.370/.500 hitter, which is obviously still fantastic.  I know most people won't, but some will. It is good to know what to reasonably expect.

Edited August 13, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Seth Stohs]

 

Thanks for looking back on your trips to see A-ball, Seth. In looking at the current Kernels roster, I'm struggling to get very excited about players there other than perhaps Gonsalves and Gordon, and even those two don't evoke the kind of optimism for me that guys like Berrios, Polanco or Rosario did.

 

You say they have a lot of talent, and their record shows it, but I'm curious about who you think is emerging as possible MLB regulars in the future outside of those two guys.

 

I would say that Gonsalves ranked similarly to Berrios coming into his MWL season... and Gonsalves's MWL performance was much better than Berrios's. 

 

Gordon is a better prospect than Polanco was during that season... but Polanco's prospect status really took off that year in Cedar Rapids. I think Gordon has a higher upside than Polanco, but he's also got a lower floor. A ways to go.

[dxpavelka]

Sano nami.

 

[dougkoebernick]

A couple of years ago I went to Cedar Rapids after getting some insight from Seth - it was a beautiful ballpark that felt much older than it actually is. My family thoroughly enjoyed it!

[jimbo92107]

 

Hate to be the downer on this delightful morning after quite the show, but Sano's BABIP is sitting at an unsustainable .419 right now. He is going to need to reduce his strikeouts a bit if he is going to keep up anywhere near this level of production. I only mention this because nobody else has.

 

All of that being said, he is barely 22, just coming off a full year of injury, and visually is taking fantastic at bats with excellent strike zone judgment. I have little doubt he will make adjustments and improve his K rate. I also think his batted ball profile, which so far has been heavily line drives and fly balls, is probably built for a higher BABIP than the average player, but there is no way it remains above .400 or in the high .300s in the long-run.

I don't think BABIP takes into account the velocity of the ball off the bat. Sano hits the ball so hard, it reduces the time for fielders to get their glove on the ball. The same thing is now starting to happen for Aaron Hicks since he developed his new kick and bat wave. The ball is coming off his bat harder, too. But not as hard as off Sano's bat... ;-)

[headcheese]

heres a link to an article on sano I saw on fangraphs... kinda interesting

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-miguel-sano/