Article: Successful Season Without Making The Playoffs?

[Tom Schreier]

I’m trying to be realistic. Our expectations in that clubhouse should be to make the postseason.

— Twins GM Terry Ryan, 11/4/14

The Minnesota Twins set the tone shortly after hiring Paul Molitor as Ron Gardenhire’s successor. Molitor came out and said that he wanted to win immediately, general manager Terry Ryan said that he expected the team to make the postseason.This after four-straight 90-loss seasons, but before the signing of Ervin Santana and Torii Hunter. “I’m coming here to win,” said Molitor back in November. “I think that it’s very important to lay that out there, right from the start.”Halfway through the season it looked like the postseason was a distinct possibility. The Twins entered the All-Star break at 49-40, sending Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier to represent the team in Cincinnati. Perkins, a converted starter who was perfect in save situations up until that point, and Dozier, a converted shortstop who has been immaculate in the field and productive as the team’s leadoff man, were two shining examples of the Twins’ patience in developing prospects and adjusting on the fly. Additionally, Trevor Plouffe was mashing at the plate and handling the hot corner with ease, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario and Torii Hunter had shored up the outfield, and the pitching staff — led by, ahem, Mike Pelfrey — was holding its own. The fact that Joe Mauer’s slow start was overshadowed by the team’s overall success told you everything you needed to know about the Twins up until that point.

 

It was obvious at the trade deadline that Minnesota had to shore up a bullpen that was relying on Aaron Thompson, who had been sent down after two strong months, and a slew of other pitchers on the wrong side of 30 — Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer and Casey Fien — to get by up until that point. Kurt Suzuki had regressed from his All-Star status last year, hitting .230 and having trouble throwing out runners and blocking stray pitches. The shortstop position was held together by a rotating cast of characters — Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana. Still, the Twins had built a buffer between themselves and the rest of the AL, and if they got off to a good start to the second half, they might have even been able to challenge the Kansas City Royals for the division lead.

 

Instead of vying for the AL Central title, the Twins now are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs, losing six series (and splitting one) since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays revamped their roster by adding David Price and Troy Tulowitzki at the deadline and are now chasing the New York Yankees for the AL East crown. The Houston Astros are driving Twins fans mad, as they were similarly awful along the same timeline as Minnesota, but were declared future World Series champs by Sports Illustrated. They appear to be unfazed by the magazine’s hex, however, adding Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez at the deadline in an attempt to stave off Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the AL West. Even the Texas Rangers made a splash, acquiring Cole Hamels from the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

With the Baltimore Orioles also in the mix for a wild card spot following a strong start to the second half, the Twins suddenly are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture. They relinquished their wild card spot during their series in Toronto, which was infuriating to fans who watched the Blue Jays beef up their roster while the Twins made a relatively minor deal to get Kevin Jepsen, a decent reliever. But it wasn’t just the Jays who have turned Minnesota into a .500 team: The A’s beat them 14-1, the Angles 7-0, the Yankees 7-2, the Pirates 10-4, the Mariners 6-1, the Jays 9-3, the Indians 17-4 — essentially a route per series. And that’s not including New York coming from behind to win after being down 5-0 in game 2 of that series — a possible turning point in the season — or Minnesota losing 8-1 in Cleveland on Sunday.

 

After that 17-4 loss, in which the Twins resorted to using Shane Robinson as a reliever despite a nine-man bullpen, many fans and pundits pronounced the team dead (including Cold Omaha’s Sam Ekstrom on The Wake Up Call). Depending on who you ask, Minnesota is either wasting money or not spending enough of it. In truth, the Twins were smart not to sell the farm at the deadline, allowing the team to keep its window of success open longer by not acting shortsightedly. Jose Berrios and Byron Buxton still have something to offer to this club, even if neither is a shortstop or catcher. And, really, Alex Meyer could provide a valuable arm in the pen next year even if at one point he was projected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

When it comes to the bullpen, player development is holding back the Twins. Everyone knew that Duensing and Fien were aging last year, and Blaine Boyer, 34, was not a long-term solution. Hope resided in prospects like Nick Burdi, Zach Jones and, to a lesser extent, Tyler Jay. All three are in their 20s, all three have stuff, but none are close to surfacing as a major leaguer. Lester Oliveros, the player to be named later in the Delmon Young trade, is 27 but hasn’t pitched in the majors this year, and Michael Tonkin, a 30th round pick in 2008, has been given opportunity, but never stuck.

 

At the major league level, Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham will likely factor into the bullpen equation in the future, given that they have stuff and are in the prime of their careers, but both need to prove they can be reliable in high-leverage situations. Ryan O’Rourke is a lefty-killer who could become a value pick (13th round, 2010), as could A.J. Achter (46th round, 2010) if they can stick in the majors. All four players are in their mid-20’s. Perkins, 32, likely will be the exception to the rule in that he should pitch well into his 30’s, and appears to be getting out the rut he was in following the All-Star break.

 

While the bullpen should be able to be fixed internally, the Twins will likely have to go outside the organization to fill their need at catcher. Josmil Pinto is battling concussion symptoms and wasn’t a great defensive player to begin with. Chris Herrmann has shown flashes, but hasn’t been consistent enough to challenge for the starting job, and Suzuki has regressed — likely due, at least in part, to the heavy beating he’s taken at that position over the years.

Minnesota could build support in the offseason by acquiring Matt Wieters, the Orioles catcher who likely will be available in free agency, but offering a large contract to a 6-foot-5, 29-year-old catcher runs the same risk they had with Mauer — he gets hurt or wears down and ends up at first base for the last half of the deal. The Twins may have to take that risk, however, given that the second-best catching prospect in the organization, outside of Pinto, is Mitch Garver: a 24 year old in High-A.

 

Whether or not the shortstop solution comes from within the organization is up for debate. Minnesota appears to be grooming Jorge Polanco for the position, but whether or not he will stick at shortstop is up for debate. “That will be up to him,” says Ryan. “A done deal? Well, we thought Plouffe was a done deal once, and we thought Cuddyer was a done deal once. You know it’s up to the player: Can you handle it or can you not?”

 

If Polanco doesn’t end up being a major league shortstop — a la Dozier and Plouffe — in the near future, Minnesota will end up having to go outside for that position, too. There’s always an outside chance that Nunez, Escobar or Santana make a second-half surge, but given the amount of playing time they’ve had and the fact that none of them has taken over a spot that’s clearly up for grabs, that seems unlikely.

 

The pitching staff has struggled lately, but Minnesota can’t afford to use more resources there. Pelfrey will likely be off the books next year, and the team must hold out hope that Nolasco will be better when healthy. Trevor May should be back in the rotation, and Berrios hopefully will challenge for a spot — creating a culture of competition that should be good for the rest of the players on the staff.

 

As far as whether or not this season will be deemed a success, playoff berth or not, that’s probably best judged in the years to come. As much as Twins fans have become impatient after four 90-loss seasons — and reasonably so — there’s reason to believe that the best has yet to come. The pitching staff isn’t this bad. The outfield is suddenly stacked. There’re young arms to replenish the bullpen. The Twins constantly claim that money is not an issue, which should mean they’ll invest in a catcher, at the very least, in the offseason. Mauer’s inability to catch will be overlooked if the team is winning, he’s productive with the bat, and there’s a premier free agent to help out behind the plate.

 

Keep in mind, most people that follow the Twins thought this would be a 75-win season. It was a logical conclusion, one that would show the team was moving in the right direction. Instead they’ve increased expectations — not a bad thing by any means — and must live up to them. Because, even though 75 wins is an improvement from where the Twins were, the goal, as always, should be to play meaningful games throughout the year. “As everybody in this game should be pointing towards the playoffs, we are too,” Ryan said back in November. “I expect to get into the playoffs every year. Why [else] should we take the diamond?”

 

This article was originally published on the Cold Omaha section of 105TheTicket.com.

Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.

 

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[Thrylos]

There are no playoffs in baseball (unless two teams are tied at the end of the season and have to have a playoff game or more to determine who goes to the post-season.)

 

You have Ryan's quote up there:

 

His expectations are to make it to the post-season.  If the Twins do not, he does not meat expectations, so there is not way it can be a success.

 

Can spin it as a "success", but...

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

This team won 72 games last season and most of us predicted a win total between 72-81.

 

Yeah, this season can be a success without making the postseason. We can also be disappointed the front office didn't push for the postseason a little harder in July.

[twinsnorth49]

It's almost mid August and I still give a rats ass, and probably will into September.

 

I'd call that a success considering my expectations

[troyhobbs]

They didn't have to "sell the farm" to improve the roster. Everyone knows that would've been stupid but there had to have been something in between selling the farm and Kevin jepsen.

[jmlease1]

Most of the national prognosticators had the Twins clocking in at 70-72 wins, so even if the Twins don't make the playoffs there's a lot of reasons to find success in a season if they can land around .500, especially after so many 90-loss seasons in a row.

 

The additional wins are nice, but we're also finally seeing some prospect development come to fruition. That's where the real success of the season is going to come.

 

The OF looks to have a real future, both offensively and defensively. None of them are perfect yet, but Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton would be a phenomenally good defensive alignment. Hicks and Rosario are both showing they can hit MLB pitching and with Buxton's skill you have to believe he'll adapt as well.

 

Sano has been terrific. Yes, we'll have to watch the K's, but the power is awesome, the patience is there and there's no question his bat plays in a big way.

 

May and Gibson have been developing nicely as pitchers as well. You have to feel confident in them as young parts of the rotation.

 

Finding young players who can actually play is a huge part of the success for this season. And figuring out who can't is a part of it too. We know we don't have answers at SS & C. we know the bullpen needs to be stabilized with more consistent arms.

 

Next year the expectations are going to be higher, and they should. but this season is showing some real growth.

 

Now, about Nolasco...

[Kwak]

Post-season play a prerequisite for success?  Of course Not--if this was April!  It's August now, and it appears that post-season play is "a bridge too far".  But was it really?  I don't think it was given the situation at the ASB.  

 

Why weren't there plenty of "good" options for the bullpen?  The Twins draft RPs every year, and sign several more candidates every off-season.  The BP should have been a strength for the Twins--not a bleeding ulcer.  

 

The Twins have preached (and lived!) a policy of "no walks" by the pitching staff.  Yet, the hitters are very free-swinging and pull-oriented,  more HRs at the expense of OBP.  I like HRs too, but a hitter has to balance his abilities and the situation's needs.  There aren't very many Twins that have a "power-hitter's body"--yet most of them act as if they do!  Why hasn't management stepped-in to change attitudes?  In fact, it looks as if management is actively championing the "big fly" given its rewards to Plouffe and Dozier (and I should include Hunter!). 

[stringer bell]

 

.  

 

 

The Twins have preached (and lived!) a policy of "no walks" by the pitching staff.  Yet, the hitters are very free-swinging and pull-oriented,  more HRs at the expense of OBP.  I like HRs too, but a hitter has to balance his abilities and the situation's needs.  There aren't very many Twins that have a "power-hitter's body"--yet most of them act as if they do!  Why hasn't management stepped-in to change attitudes?  In fact, it looks as if management is actively championing the "big fly" given its rewards to Plouffe and Dozier (and I should include Hunter!). 

Disagree here Kwak. Dozier became an All-Star precisely because he is able to generate so many extra-base hits. Yes, i hope he moderates just a bit next year and starts using all fields more, but he's good because he hits homers and doubles. Plouffe was all or nothing in the year that he hit 24 homers. He's been a better player the last two years because he is using all the field, especially with two strikes.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If the team was in third place in the division all season, made a big late push in August and September fueled by the youngsters, but came up a bit short. Yes it would be a successful season.

 

On the other hand, being firmly in second place and the third best team in the AL for half the season, then fading quicklb while missing the post season, would not be.

 

There's still time to make a big push in August and September, but looks unlikely given the state of pitching.

[jimmer]

We got to see a bunch of youngsters, we will likely still play some meaningful games in September.  This season, for me, has been successful. We are slowly moving in the right direction.  One of my biggest issues is that it seems they have decided that May is a bullpen guy.  It is unfortunate because I think he's easily a #3 pitcher (at worse) and those guys have real value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We got to see a bunch of youngsters, we will likely still play some meaningful games in September.  This season, for me, has been successful. We are slowly moving in the right direction.  One of my biggest issues is that it seems they have decided that May is a bullpen guy.  It is unfortunate because I think he's easily a #3 pitcher (at worse) and those guys have real value.

I find that frustrating as well but I'm pretty sure they've openly said at the latest, May will be in the rotation by 2016. That tempers my frustration a bit.

[Dantes929]

 

Post-season play a prerequisite for success?  Of course Not--if this was April!  It's August now, and it appears that post-season play is "a bridge too far".  But was it really?  I don't think it was given the situation at the ASB.  

 

Why weren't there plenty of "good" options for the bullpen?  The Twins draft RPs every year, and sign several more candidates every off-season.  The BP should have been a strength for the Twins--not a bleeding ulcer.  

 

 

First, I don't consider it a bridge too far.    1.5 games back is too far?  On this day in 2006 they were 8.5 games back.  1.5 games can change in two days.    Of course it can go farther south as well but competitive doesn't mean come close and lose it means come close and either win or lose and so far I am happy that the Twins have been competitive.

Of course I would like the pen to be stronger but has the lack of moves really been the culprit here.   Since the all star game our all star closer has blown 4 games.    Should the Twins have tried to upgrade what was the best closer in baseball in the 1st half?    Lack of scoring and a bad stretch of starting pitching was the main culprit so far post ASB.   In fact the pen just won two more games for them this past weekend.   The pen gets slammed but they just pitched 7 innings giving up just one run (Perkins).   IMO the relief corps has struggled most when the game was likely lost anyway and have held strong numerous occasions when the Twins were very close after short starts by the rotation.     I would like better but it can't all be laid on them.   There was a post a week ago about how the Twins rotation were all above and in some cases well above 5 ERA since the break and the Twins scored an average of 2.6 runs in the losses.

[Vanimal46]

When you look at this season overall, sure this was a successful year. Considering most of us had them in the 75-85 win range, they're hopefully going to achieve that while staying relevant in the WC chase. I'm a believer in expectations changing during the season, and there were some things that were not changed that IMO could have made this season even better. And those are the frustrations we've noted all year:

 

- The couple weeks prior to the ASG my expectations grew as the team had the 2nd best record in the AL completely unexpectedly. Instead of building on that momentum, very minimal changes were made to the roster.

 

- Trevor May demotion: He was finding his groove as a starter, until E. Santana came back and caused a disruption in the rotation. I didn't feel he should be the odd man out then, and the 1 month disappearance from high leverage action was mind boggling. 

 

- World's longest leashes for unworthy veterans: Tim Stauffer got 3 months worth of paychecks for....reasons. Duensing, Boyer, Robinson all still getting more playing time than I would like. 

 

So overall there's been good, and bad, with this season. Who knows, they could get hot in September like they did in May, but I think this season could have been even better with some aggressive moves earlier this season. 

[Major League Ready]

The team making the playoffs, especially the wild card has very little to do with how I would measure success for this season.  After four consecutive 90 loss seasons, success in my opinion is measured in the development of players capable of producing a winner.

If Sano had gotten a chance and demonstrated he can play 3B. I would say he would be the most important “success” this year.  Hicks and Rosario are items 2 & 3 making this season a success even if Hicks is traded for a SS or C.  His improvement will have netted that important asset.  I would add Trevor May to the success list at the ML level.  Gibson also looks to be part of the solution as opposed to part of the problem.

 

I also see this year as a success because some important assets have performed well in the minors.  At the top of that list is Kepler, Berrios, and perhaps Polanco.  We need top of the rotation guys in the worst way and Berrios has made progress toward being a top of the rotation SP.  Kepler’s athleticism and plate discipline make me inclined to believe he can be an elite player at the ML level.  This will be even more important if Hicks is moved for a C or SS.  Regardless, the advancement of these four young players is very important to the team’s future and Dozier's continued good play has to be considered part of the success of this season.

 

Things that fall into the category of not contributing to building a contender were the acquisition of Ervin Santana and the extension of Phil Hughes.  Ricky Nolasco and his contract is a bigger problem than the other two unless he amazes us and comes back to perform like a mid-rotation SP.    I would sure like to have that 38M/yr to invest in a front of the rotation SP in 2017 which is the first season I think they are legit contenders.   Take what’s left over and the $10M to Hunter and invest that in a SS or Catcher.  I sure hope they can dump at least one of Nolasco, Santana, or Hughes.  Nolasco   would be my first choice to go.  At least then you have room for May, Berrios and Gibson.

 

There are also a number of prospects that had poor seasons.  At the top of that list is Arcia and the bullpen arms that were looking like set-up men and closers of the future.   Those bullpen guys were looking like a major strength going forward.  Now, not so much.  Let’s hope a couple of them bounce back in 2016.

[jimmer]

 

I find that frustrating as well but I'm pretty sure they've openly said at the latest, May will be in the rotation by 2016. 

 

 

 

 

I wish I could easily accept what they say as true.

[jimbo92107]

 

They didn't have to "sell the farm" to improve the roster. Everyone knows that would've been stupid but there had to have been something in between selling the farm and Kevin jepsen.

Even the relatively modest move of giving up Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepsen could come back to haunt the Twins. Hu looked like a very good developing pitcher with a neat assortment of pitches and excellent control. Not to mention all the lost Dr. Who/Hu jokes and references to Hu's on First... Damn!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Even the relatively modest move of giving up Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepsen could come back to haunt the Twins.

I just don't see that happening. Yes, it's possible Hu has a decent career in MLB - though I doubt that will be the case - but given the Twins' plethora of options, I don't think it will impact the MLB club much, if at all.

 

As we saw with Duffey over the weekend, the Twins aren't lacking back of the rotation pitching options going forward. Losing Hu wasn't the problem, the return of Kevin Jepsen was the problem.

 

Hu is the type of player the Twins shouldn't hesitate to trade if it helps the MLB team compete.

[jimbo92107]

This has already been a very successful season. Aside from competing realistically for the first half...

 

We found out that

- Brian Dozier's monster 2014 was no statistical fluke.

- Aaron Hicks indeed could fix his power problems at the plate, and even his weaker lefty swing is looking much better.

- Eddie Rosario is a keeper, just as Molitor thought.

- Paul Molitor is a pretty good manager, and Tom Brunanski is a pretty good hitting coach.

- Trevor Plouffe keeps getting better at 3rd base.

- Torii Hunter is indeed a great mentor, helping all the young outfielders, building team morale, instilling professionalism, and providing some great play himself.

- Trevor May is a very versatile, very talented young pitcher that gets better in every role.

- Kyle Gibson is rounding into a solid mid-rotation starter.

- Tyler Duffey's last name has an Extra E, just like an advertisement for urine fetish sex in New York. "The extra E is for extra pee!"

- Tommy Milone on a good day can shut down anybody; on a bad day, not so much.

- Bert Blyleven, master of the curve ball, has no better idea of the difference between a curve and a slider than any of us hackers. Vertical break?? Then I guess Randy Johnson never threw a curve ball! Come on Bert, only a few guys actually get the ball to break 12 to 6!

- Tyler Duffey likes pitching to the Indians more than the Blue Jays. So far.

- Molitor likes shifts, bunts, and shifts. Did I mention shifts?

- Neil Allen is a pretty good pitching coach, but he still hasn't gotten anybody to throw nothing but change-ups for a whole inning. Somebody's got to do it. History beckons. Double. Dog. Dare.

- Byron Buxton needs protective gloves when he runs the bases, and a crash helmet in the field.

- Miguel Sano has a really good arm at 3rd. Not much else to say....a nice smile, too.

- Kurt Suzuki is a very positive, friendly, upbeat, hard-working catcher. Unfortunately, he's no Pudge Rodriguez.

- Joe Mauer...sigh.

 

There's a few other things, but I'm tired now. Twins should call up Stewart Turner for defense, then work with him on his Cuban Kick and Dominican Bat Wave. Then move Mitch Garver to AA. Why are so many American players so stiff at the plate? Loosen up, Gringos; listen to some salsa!

 

Call up Buxton, Vargas, Berrios and Kepler in September. That pretty much completes the band, except for drummer. Who can play drums?

Edited August 17, 2015 by jimbo92107