Article: Gleeman & The Geek, Ep 209: Buxton Gets Arcia'd

[John Bonnes]

Aaron and John get together for a special midweek episode and talk about Byron Buxton disappearing from the Twins' immediate plans, the possibility of trading Trevor Plouffe, Max Kepler's breakout season, Kurt Suzuki being skeptical of numbers, buying a mattress from Casper, clearing the 2016 outfield logjam, Terry Ryan's job security and getting the meat sweats at Iron Door Pub. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below.   

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Sorry Bonnes, but I completely agree with Gleeman about playing Buxton (or Kepler) instead of Shane Robinson. I also agree about Hicks and Rosario not needing to play every day so that Buxton can play 4-5 times a week. I don't think Rosario and Hicks sitting once a week will hurt their development.

 

8 ABs a week from Shane Robinson is a pretty big deal. It really is.

[Shane Wahl]

Yeah, that Shane Robinson is going to last this entire year on the roster is a total joke and a half. Buxton in AAA is comical.

[John Bonnes]

Well, like Aaron and I, we're going to need to agree to disagree. I don't want Buxton on this roster as a fourth outfielder until he can't be a full time outfielder in the minors. It s a disservice to Buxton.

 

[Seth Stohs]

I haven't listened, but ... I'm with Bonnes on this one... Buxton just missed like 6-7 weeks... he should be playing every day in AAA. 

 

Shane Robinson is a guy that can play once or twice a week, and play really good defense, and probably go 2-8 most weeks. Buxton will be up very soon (within 16 days, I'm sure), and he'll play a lot. Robinson being on the roster hurts nothing. Especially if we claim to believe that outfield defense is important. 

[LaBombo]

"... clearing the 2016 outfield logjam..."

 

Logjam?    Really?

 

Before even talking about 2016, let's remember what happened the last time the Twins 'cleared a logjam' in the outfield.    Span and Revere were sent packing to clear room for Aaron Hicks.    And individual merits aside, the trades, taken separately, appeared to at least make sense in that they sought to use organizational depth to address a weakness.

 

But as a result of them both being traded before Hicks' MLB debut, Twins fans were treated to a revolving door of journeymen in center.    And they mostly followed two half seasons of Hicks looking either comatose or swarmed by yellow jackets at the plate, and like a performance artist using center field as a stage for an interpretative dance retelling of the voyages of Magellan.

 

 

That said, there's one other issue with clearing the logjam:     THERE IS NO !@*%  LOGJAM!!!!!!!!

 

Hunter and Robinson are gone.      I can't even imagine how that's a discussion. 

 

Buxton in center and Arcia and Rosario at the corners.     Hicks backing up Buxton and giving either corner guy a day off against a tough lefty.

 

An infielder who owns an outfield glove as the 5th OF, because teams with a bullpen big enough to form a marching band don't get to have a real 5th OF.

 

If that's too thin of an outfield, sign a DH bat (probably right-handed) who can play a tolerable corner outfield occasionally.      That's essentially what Hunter is now anyway, though the Twins don't realize it or refuse to acknowledge it.

 

And most of all, repeat after me:    There.     Is.     No.     Logjam. 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2015 by LaBombo

[Seth Stohs]

I should add to my previous comment... when Byron Buxton has more than 3 games under his belt... and I expect him called up within the 20 days... call him up and play him every day... However. 

 

Buxton's the future. Buxton should play CF nearly every day. platoon Rosario and Hicks in LF... let the other play RF whenever Hunter gets a day off... let Robinson then become the 5th Outfielder who is used in emergencies. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Shane Robinson is a guy that can play once or twice a week, and play really good defense, and probably go 2-8 most weeks. Buxton will be up very soon (within 16 days, I'm sure), and he'll play a lot. Robinson being on the roster hurts nothing. Especially if we claim to believe that outfield defense is important. 

Hurts nothing?  What's more useful?

 

A) Hunter, Hicks, Rosario, or Buxton available to start, pinch hit, pinch run, or be defensive replacements (all but Hunter on the latter two)

 

or 

 

B ) Hunter, Hicks, Rosario, and Robinson available to start (preferably not Robinson), pinch hit (all but Robinson), pinch run, or be defensive replacements (again, all but Hunter on the latter two)

 

Keep enough guys around on the bench or in the bullpen who "hurt nothing" by themselves, can, in fact, hurt.  I don't mind Buxton getting a few more reps in AAA at the moment but there's no question he would make the team better.

Edited August 12, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

let Robinson then become the 5th Outfielder who is used in emergencies. 

I'm not sure an emergency 5th outfielder is the best use of a roster spot in that scenario, especially if Molitor continued to give him at least a start a week to "keep him fresh".

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm not sure an emergency 5th outfielder is the best use of a roster spot in that scenario, especially if Molitor continued to give him at least a start a week to "keep him fresh".

 

Or drop him at that time (though it'll almost be September). Once Buxton gets a few more games under his belt, then they can make that decision.

[nytwinsfan]

 

"... clearing the 2016 outfield logjam..."

 

Logjam?    Really?

 

Before even talking about 2016, let's remember what happened the last time the Twins 'cleared a logjam' in the outfield.    Span and Revere were sent packing to clear room for Aaron Hicks.    And individual merits aside, the trades, taken separately, appeared to at least make sense in that they sought to use organizational depth to address a weakness.

 

But as a result of them both being traded before Hicks' MLB debut, Twins fans were treated to a revolving door of journeymen in center.    And they mostly followed two half seasons of Hicks looking either comatose or swarmed by yellow jackets at the plate, and like a performance artist using center field as a stage for an interpretative dance retelling of the voyages of Magellan.

 

 

That said, there's one other issue with clearing the logjam:     THERE IS NO !@*%  LOGJAM!!!!!!!!

 

Hunter and Robinson are gone.      I can't even imagine how that's a discussion. 

 

Buxton in center and Arcia and Rosario at the corners.     Hicks backing up Buxton and giving either corner guy a day off against a tough lefty.

 

An infielder who owns an outfield glove as the 5th OF, because teams with a bullpen big enough to form a marching band don't get to have a real 5th OF.

 

If that's too thin of an outfield, sign a DH bat (probably right-handed) who can play a tolerable corner outfield occasionally.      That's essentially what Hunter is now anyway, though the Twins don't realize it or refuse to acknowledge it.

 

And most of all, repeat after me:    There.     Is.     No.     Logjam. 

Yes, really.  You really can't imagine Hunter not being gone is even a discussion? Have you met Terry Ryan? I agree that we shouldn't re-sign him, I'm just not so sure Ryan would never do it. The possibility of Hunter being back is one that has to be considered, whether we like it or not.

 

But even aside from Hunter, Arcia and Kepler are both in the picture for next year, so that is at least five potential outfielders, all of whom are potentially starting quality. And the Twins don't like to platoon or keep young non-everyday players on the 25-man roster.  So that is the reason Gleeman and Bonnes raised the logjam. You can say there shouldn't be a logjam if the Twins had better management, but I think there clearly is going to be a logjam under current management, unless someone or someone(s) are traded, or Arcia, Hunter, and/or Kepler are moved to different positions and others moved to make room for them there. Thus I think it is a very legitimate topic to discuss.

[LaBombo]

 

Buxton's the future. Buxton should play CF nearly every day. platoon Rosario and Hicks in LF... let the other play RF whenever Hunter gets a day off... let Robinson then become the 5th Outfielder who is used in emergencies. 

 

Is there an announced or assumed impending roster move to reduce the bullpen to 7 pitchers?    If not, there's no place for Robinson, or any other 5th OF, for that matter.

 

13 pitchers    =>    12 position players.     Just for accounting purposes, not lineup construction, that's...

 

Eight regulars.

 

Sano at DH.    Nine.

 

Hermann/Fryer/ficus plant at backup catcher.    Ten.

 

Hicks as fourth outfielder.    Eleven.

 

Thing-uardo One or Two as backup infielder.    Twelve.

 

And that's it, until the Twins feel confident enough to lose a reliever or until the rosters expand, yes?

Edited August 12, 2015 by LaBombo

[Seth Stohs]

I do think that Buxton getting more big league reps would make the Twins better.

 

I think that Shane Robinson is a fine 5th OF.

 

I think Buxton will be a star in this game for a long time. I don't think think him getting an extra 10-12 games in AAA after missing 6-7 weeks. 

[LaBombo]

 

 

Yes, really.  You really can't imagine Hunter not being gone is even a discussion? Have you met Terry Ryan? I agree that we shouldn't re-sign him, I'm just not so sure Ryan would never do it. The possibility of Hunter being back is one that has to be considered, whether we like it or not.

 

But even aside from Hunter, Arcia and Kepler are both in the picture for next year, so that is at least five potential outfielders, all of whom are potentially starting quality. And the Twins don't like to platoon or keep young non-everyday players on the 25-man roster.  So that is the reason Gleeman and Bonnes raised the logjam. You can say there shouldn't be a logjam if the Twins had better management, but I think there clearly is going to be a logjam under current management, unless someone or someone(s) are traded, or Arcia, Hunter, and/or Kepler are moved to different positions and others moved to make room for them there. Thus I think it is a very legitimate topic to discuss.

 

My post was intended to reference the construction of a competitive roster.    If Ryan chooses to do pursue another goal, the Twins will be of relatively little interest to me anyway.    And bringing a player who has contributed at replacement level in the second half of 2015 back for his age 41 season is not fielding a competitive roster.

 

Put in a TD forum context, if Hunter is part of an ongoing discussion on this board in spring training 2016, it should only be a discussion about Ryan's fitness to continue as GM, or the Twins' bleak future with the Pohlad family as owners.

 

That leaves Kepler.    I'm a big fan, and hoping he continues his ascent to the majors in 2016.    But he has just 400 plate appearances above A ball, and in them he has benefited from a whopping .375 batting average on balls in play.    That's about as sustainable as a nationwide transportation system run on whale oil.

 

And yes, knocking fifty or sixty points off his slash line still gives numbers that show a breakout year, albeit a less remarkable one.    But that's not enough to bother with wringing hands now about what to do with him next year if he kills AA and AAA pitching for half a season.

 

If Kepler does, he either replaces Arcia or Rosario if one of them struggles, or the Twins trade one of the three in-season, knowing their needs and strengths better than they did in the offseason.

 

Worst case is that Kepler proves himself ready for the majors by some point next season but spends the rest of it in AAA anyway, at age 23.    Sub-optimal to be sure, but hardly a major personnel gaffe.

Edited August 12, 2015 by LaBombo

[nytwinsfan]

 

My post was intended to reference the construction of a competitive roster.    If Ryan chooses to do pursue another goal, the Twins will be of relatively little interest to me anyway.    And bringing a player who has contributed at replacement level in the second half of 2015 back for his age 41 season is not fielding a competitive roster.

 

Put in a TD forum context, if Hunter is part of an ongoing discussion on this board in spring training 2016, it should only be a discussion about Ryan's fitness to continue as GM, or the Twins' bleak future with the Pohlad family as owners.

 

That leaves Kepler.    I'm a big fan, and hoping he continues his ascent to the majors in 2016.    But he has just 400 plate appearances above A ball, and in them he has benefited from a whopping .375 batting average on balls in play.    That's about as sustainable as a nationwide transportation system run on whale oil.

 

And yes, knocking fifty or sixty points off his slash line still gives numbers that show a breakout year, albeit a less remarkable one.    But that's not enough to bother with wringing hands now about what to do with him next year if he kills AA and AAA pitching for half a season.

 

If Kepler does, he either replaces Arcia or Rosario if one of them struggles, or the Twins trade one of the three in-season, knowing their needs and strengths better than they did in the offseason.

 

Worst case is that Kepler proves himself ready for the majors by some point next season but spends the rest of it in AAA anyway, at age 23.    Sub-optimal to be sure, but hardly a major personnel gaffe.

Ok, that's pretty reasonable and I mostly agree. The only place I might disagree, which Gleeman point's out, is that if we are going to have a logjam at some point next year, the time to trade Plouffe might be this winter, not next spring.  Because Plouffe might be at the height of his value now, it might be tougher to trade him for as much value in May or June when teams have already set their rosters, and because it might be tough to switch Sano from DH to 3B midseason. And whether or not Plouffe is with the team will help moot any future logjam, since Kepler and/or Arcia could partly or fully shift to 1B/DH if Plouffe leaves, leaving an extra spot in the 3B/DH/1B trifecta.

Edited August 12, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[wickedslider]

 

Ok, that's pretty reasonable and I mostly agree. The only place I might disagree, which Gleeman point's out, is that if we are going to have a logjam at some point next year, the time to trade Plouffe might be this winter, not next spring.  Because Plouffe might be at the height of his value now, it might be tougher to trade him for as much value in May or June when teams have already set their rosters, and because it might be tough to switch Sano from DH to 3B midseason. And whether or not Plouffe is with the team will help moot any future logjam, since Kepler and/or Arcia could partly or fully shift to 1B/DH if Plouffe leaves, leaving an extra spot in the 3B/DH/1B trifecta.

Somehow I don't see Arcia as any type of decent 1st baseman. Do you really think he is going to dig out those one hoppers consistently? Vargas, I could see more so than Arcia, at 1B.

[John Bonnes]

Regarding the logjam

1) I don't really expect the Twins to do anything, in part because...

2) I don't really know if it's that wise. 

 

The biggest concern is whether Sano can play 3B. It seems odd that Aaron suggested this, because I think he's been one of the biggest skeptics on this point. And I wonder if the Twins, even if they were convinced he probably could play 3B, aren't wondering why the hell they would mess with a good thing, especially the way Sano has been hitting as DH.

 

The other concern is that it's projecting a lot of guys to either take the next step or not regress. Mauer could continue his drop off. Kepler could need more time. Arcia could never take the step we hope to see and ultimately be a platoon only guy. Rosario and his K/BB rate could take Danny Santana's path. 

 

So I come back to the conclusion I came to on the podcast - you take a good offer if it comes along and addresses a bigger need. But I'm not trying to get rid of Plouffe. He's just one option.  

[USAFChief]

I

The proof is in the pudding. ..who wasn't absolutely thrilled with having Robinson lead off the 9th today, down a run?

 

Honestly, if this was 1968, and teams carried 5 outfielders, this might be explained away. But it isn't.

[LaBombo]

 

I
The proof is in the pudding. ..who wasn't absolutely thrilled with having Robinson lead off the 9th today, down a run?

 

 

But he's small, sort of fast, and has no power.    How is that not an ideal leadoff hitter?

 

Oh, that's right, you stipulated that the situation in question was not taking place in 1968.    Never mind.

[Ncgo4]

In order to have a log jam you need logs. Robinson and Hunter aren't logs, they're dead wood, certainly as regards next year. Hunter should be kept around for his clubhouse presence, to mentor and to relieve the youngsters occasionally and to pinch hit.

 

Also, Mauer should be "rested" for the rest of this season, Plouffe to 1st, Sano to 3rd so we can really find out if he can play there and Max Kepler to DH. If the season is gone as the Twin's action at the trade deadline indicated they think it is, then let's us see what we just might have for next year.