Article: Coming Soon: Jose Berrios

[Nick Nelson]

This season we have already seen two of Minnesota's "Big Three" prospects debut in the majors, with Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano both taking the big step.

 

It's beginning to look very likely that we will see the third in a Twins uniform in the near future – perhaps as soon as this weekend.After delivering his best outing yet for Rochester on Saturday, firing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, Jose Berrios now sports numbers in Triple-A that are equally impressive to the ones he posted in Double-A before being promoted. And when I say equal, I mean almost eerily identical:

 

Berrios at AA: 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, .232 BAA

Berrios at AAA: 7 GS, 44.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, .232 BAA

 

Despite becoming the youngest pitcher in the International League at age 21, Berrios has transitioned without skipping a beat. He has completed seven innings in four of his last five starts and has a 1.59 ERA during that span. He's big-league ready.

 

The Twins currently have an opening in their rotation with Tommy Milone on the disabled list and Tyler Duffey back in Triple-A after one bad start. Milone is expected to come off the disabled list when he's eligible on Sunday, but that leaves the Twins needing a spot starter on Saturday (or before), unless they want to start Kyle Gibson on short rest, which seems inadvisable considering how he's pitched lately.

 

Calling Berrios up to make one start doesn't really make sense, since it would mean adding him to the 40-man roster (there is currently a vacancy) and burning an option to send him back down, but it's easy to see a scenario where the Twins simply keep him around. His workload will soon become a consideration (he's currently at 135 innings, nearly eclipsing last year's career-high 139), so there's benefit in transitioning him into a temporary long relief role for the time being.

 

And the Twins do look like a team that's going to be needing another starter soon, even with Milone set to return and fill out the rotation. Phil Hughes has been suffering from dead arm, with velocity dropping and results reflecting. Mike Pelfrey has been throwing batting practice for about two months. Milone had a 7.98 post-break ERA prior to landing on the shelf.

 

There are big-picture arguments against calling Berrios up this year, mostly relating to the control of his service clock. But he's an impact player, and while you can make a good case that the fledgling Twins should already be throwing in the towel, they likely feel an obligation – to their players and their fans – to make a legitimate push as long they're within the range of contention. Berrios might be the only prospect left in the system that could actually make a meaningful difference in the team's fortunes the rest of the way.

 

So I think a Berrios appearance this week seems like a pretty good bet. He's done everything that could be asked of him in the minors, and while he would become the youngest pitcher to start a game in the big leagues this year, there are plenty of indications that he's up to the challenge.

 

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[walt-o-meal]

I'm excited to see Berrios in the majors. 

 

But the question is, how many innings do you have him throw this year?  His character and talent are not things to gamble with.

[Seth Stohs]

If we subscribe to the philosophy that a pitcher shouldn't work more than 20% more innings from one year to the next... that puts him at about 168-170 innings for this year. That's about 35 more innings, or five more starts if he pitches like he has. 

 

The Twins say they don't really have a limit for him, but I know they would be careful. I think they generally watch these guys pretty carefully. IF they look like they're tiring, they'll shut him down.

 

Tyler Duffey threw six, one-hit innings tonight and used just 69 pitches. Could he pitch on short rest on Saturday?

[Vanimal46]

I hope you're right on the prediction, I'd love to watch him pitch... Call me a skeptic, but I can't see it happening in mid-August at the risk of burning an option year. More likely to see him in September and start the option years in 2016.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Tyler Duffey threw six, one-hit innings tonight and used just 69 pitches. Could he pitch on short rest on Saturday?

I don't think they can recall him within 10 days of sending him down unless someone goes on the DL. 

[troyhobbs]

Technically its probably not worth burning an option but if he's mlb ready then options be damned. I'd bring him up in one last desperation move to restore some short lived hope in twins territory

[nicksaviking]

I'm less concerned with running out of options with pitchers than batters. A batter who ends up needing more seasoning than expected doesn't make sense to hide on the bench where he'll never play. You can stick a pitcher in the bullpen though. Not really any different than how almost all Twins Rule V picks are pitchers they hand mop up duty to.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't think they can recall him within 10 days of sending him down unless someone goes on the DL. 

 

Was optioned after starting last Tuesday... 8/4... Saturday would be 8/15. 

[jimbo92107]

I can't wait to see Berrios. The kid sounds like a real competitor with great stuff.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I just don't see the Twins calling up Berrios. I think they SHOULD, but gut says they find a reason to keep him down, or a better reason to start someone else. I am not against starting Duffey, like Seth mentioned.

 

I think Berrios is both better, more ready, and deserves it more, but I also know better to think that is the way it has or will be done. Would be at least interesting to see how Duffey responds to the pounding he took in Toronto, and being shipped back and forth. Test his metal, and see what he's made of I guess. Just wish he was sitting closer to 93ph than 92. Anyone know where he was "sitting" when he was in the bullpen? 

[h2oface]

 

Tyler Duffey threw six, one-hit innings tonight and used just 69 pitches. Could he pitch on short rest on Saturday?

 

Like Tonkin, Duffey seems to lack "the right stuff", blinded by the bright lights. Let's see if Berrios can take the spotlight run with it, instead of look like a deer in the headlights. Duffey had his chance to debut, the only chance he can have to debut. The people in charge said he was the most ready. If that is the case, the Twins are really in trouble. Let's see if Berrios can show them they were wrong. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Didn't May just go 3 or 4 innings out of the pen recently? If so, I suspect he's in line to move back. That would be what was needed to stretch him out with the hopes of going 5 or 6.

[twinssouth]

I can't wait to see Berrios. The kid sounds like a real competitor with great stuff.

 

 

Totally agree. Hard to believe he's only 21 when watching him. Outstanding mound presence, doesn't seem to get rattled, holds runners with the best of them. FO needs to see what they have with Pelfrey gone next year. They were probably smart not having him start in Toronto against that line up. I'd bring him up and finish the year with the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Calling Berrios up to make one start doesn't really make sense, since it would mean adding him to the 40-man roster (there is currently a vacancy) and burning an option to send him back down

Like Buxton, Berrios will only burn an option if he's sent back down for 20 or more days in 2015.  So if he started Saturday, was optioned out Sunday, we could recall him on or before September 4th and not burn an option.  (Not perfect, as the Rochester season goes through Sep. 8, but we could keep him around for a few more days before optioning him too -- I notice Achter is still on the active roster...)

 

For guys who figure to be in the mix for next year's opening day roster anyway, it's a great idea to get them MLB experience when opportunities are available beginning in August.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If we subscribe to the philosophy that a pitcher shouldn't work more than 20% more innings from one year to the next... that puts him at about 168-170 innings for this year. That's about 35 more innings, or five more starts if he pitches like he has. 

 

The Twins say they don't really have a limit for him, but I know they would be careful. I think they generally watch these guys pretty carefully. IF they look like they're tiring, they'll shut him down.

 

Tyler Duffey threw six, one-hit innings tonight and used just 69 pitches. Could he pitch on short rest on Saturday?

 

There is zero evidence that rule is real. The links studying the actual effect and debunking it as not true at all are all over if you want to find them.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Like Tonkin, Duffey seems to lack "the right stuff", blinded by the bright lights. Let's see if Berrios can take the spotlight run with it, instead of look like a deer in the headlights. Duffey had his chance to debut, the only chance he can have to debut. The people in charge said he was the most ready. If that is the case, the Twins are really in trouble. Let's see if Berrios can show them they were wrong. 

 

I would say that it's WAYYYY too soon to make that kind of statement about Duffey. I'd say his struggles were about nerves, but also about pitching to the hottest offensive team in baseball. He didn't do too much worse than the veterans in that series. 

 

If Berrios does debut this weekend against Cleveland, we'll see what happens, but it's just one game. 

 

I think both Berrios and Duffey are very mature and very talented. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Was optioned after starting last Tuesday... 8/4... Saturday would be 8/15. 

 

According to Jeremy Nygaard, Duffey was optioned on the 6th, so he would not be eligible to start on the 15th without someone going on the DL.

[Mike Sixel]

Do we have any evidence from the Twins that this is imminent, or are we just hoping? It would be great to see him up here this year.

[gil4]

 

Like Tonkin, Duffey seems to lack "the right stuff", blinded by the bright lights.

 

A transition time is normal.  Neither has been given enough opportunity to say they won't make the transition.

[USAFChief]

Didn't May just go 3 or 4 innings out of the pen recently? If so, I suspect he's in line to move back. That would be what was needed to stretch him out with the hopes of going 5 or 6.

May has never gone more than 2 IP since moving to the pen. The last time he went more than 1 inning was July 22nd. That ship has sailed for 2015, I think.

 

Btw, he hasn't been scored on since that last 2 inning outing, his WHIP is down as a reliever over starter by more than .1, and his K/BB has doubled. He's been 96 or better every outing.

 

I would give serious consideration to letting him stay in the pen.

[zenser]

I have good tickets to the game Saturday.  Bring up Berrios! 

[tobi0040]

 

May has never gone more than 2 IP since moving to the pen. The last time he went more than 1 inning was July 22nd. That ship has sailed for 2015, I think.

Btw, he hasn't been scored on since that last 2 inning outing, his WHIP is down as a reliever over starter by more than .1, and his K/BB has doubled. He's been 96 or better every outing.

I would give serious consideration to letting him stay in the pen.

 

Personally, I think May is a top 3 starter in terms of talent.  Unless he is remarkably better in the pen, I think he has to start for us.  At 24 and 25 he had an FIP of 4.77 in his first cup of coffee last year and a 3.16 this year.  He has fanned 8+ batters per 9. 

 

The guy just needs to start.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

There is zero evidence that rule is real. The links studying the actual effect and debunking it as not true at all are all over if you want to find them.

 

I don't necessarily believe it either, but there are some who do and it is a theory. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Do we have any evidence from the Twins that this is imminent, or are we just hoping? It would be great to see him up here this year.

 

There has been no evidence either way. They haven't really hinted to anything.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Personally, I think May is a top 3 starter in terms of talent.  Unless he is remarkably better in the pen, I think he has to start for us.  At 24 and 25 he had an FIP of 4.77 in his first cup of coffee last year and a 3.16 this year.  He has fanned 8+ batters per 9. 

 

The guy just needs to start.

 

They've said he's going to stay in the bullpen the rest of this year and will start again next season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They've said he's going to stay in the bullpen the rest of this year and will start again next season.

 

I'm glad he'll start again next year. No idea why this is a good idea this year, but it is what it is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Ryan kind of owes it to the fans to give Berrios a shot. He's their best option to salvage the rotation right now.

 

Bring him up. The kid just dominates wherever you put him.

 

I'm not concerned about Jose's options. Like Sano and Buxton, he's approaching the kind of elite prospect status where options aren't a big concern. If he stays in Rochester, he's a top 15, maybe top 10 prospect on some lists this offseason.

[Dantes929]

Perhaps the reason Milone landed on the shelf was also the reason for the post ASG high ERA.    Gibson did just fine last night in stopping the bleeding with a run better than a quality start.      While I was against the 6 man rotation because we had 5 guys doing really well when Santana was activated it makes more sense now if Hughes is dead armed.    Very annoyed that May is out of the rotation for the season and hope Ryan is good for his work that he will be back next year. 

 

In the meantime there is no reason not to bring Berrios up.   If the Twins are fading out of the race as many believe then bringing Berrios up is the equivalent of bringing May up last year.   Get his feet wet and start him next year.    If he does great then maybe he is the shot in the arm the Twins need to go on another good streak and be relevant for the rest of this year.    

 

I also hope the plan is to bring Buxton back.   I would be very happy not to see Escobar, Robinson or Nunez in the outfield again this year.   Buxton, Rosario and HIcks makes me happy.

[hybridbear]

while you can make a good case that the fledgling Twins should already be throwing in the towel, they likely feel an obligation – to their players and their fans – to make a legitimate push as long they're within the range of contention

The Twins should not make desperation moves to try to reach the playoffs this year. Their focus should be on the development of their young players. Players like Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Vargas, Santana, Kepler, Berrios, etc should be kept at whatever level will best prepare them for success at the ML level. The coaching staff should focus on helping those players prepare for life as a potential everyday player on the Twins. And the FO should be figuring out what to do with Mauer, Plouffe & others who may not fit in the long-term picture.

[Nick Nelson]

 

According to Jeremy Nygaard, Duffey was optioned on the 6th, so he would not be eligible to start on the 15th without someone going on the DL.

Yep, they waited a couple days to send him down. Nothing about the timing of this makes sense to me unless they planned on calling up Berrios. They must have known they were going to need an extra starter this week.