Article: Switching Gears

[Jham]

 

Concur, a day late and a dollar short for the 5th straight year.

Can't wait to hear the rhetoric defending this year.
"We were a competetive team, we took a lot of strides, blah, blah, blah"

Head still stuck in sand.

 

We've gotten into this position by wasting the years prior.  We're obsessed with catching lightening in a bottle (Perkins, Dozier) and hoping that our talent will mesh into something serviceable.  Adding veterans during a rebuild should have provided opportunities to trade guys away, and groom younger guys.  But we've refused to add notable FA, and failed to trade players at their peaks.  Rather than continually trying to get more talent, we've contently waited around for talent to bloom.  

 

This "immense young talent" we speak of doesn't include a catcher, an ace, or possibly even a lock-down reliever or shortstop.  Who are we waiting for who figures to be a huge upgrade over what we have on the field now?  Polanco maybe?  Pinto doubtfully?  We have a bunch of average players and no stars.  Will May and Berrios have better years next year than Pelf and Milone had this year?  Mauer can't be moved.  Once Bux and Kepler are up, how do the cupboards look?

 

 

[jimbo92107]

You guys do realize that Nolasco will have a fantastic comeback season next year, right? Twins give up on an injured pitcher, he goes anywhere else, he shines.

 

Same thing could happen to Arcia. Send him to Boston, watch him become another home run hitter of historic dimensions, tho Boston would much rather have Vargas.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

We've gotten into this position by wasting the years prior.  We're obsessed with catching lightening in a bottle (Perkins, Dozier) and hoping that our talent will mesh into something serviceable.  Adding veterans during a rebuild should have provided opportunities to trade guys away, and groom younger guys.  But we've refused to add notable FA, and failed to trade players at their peaks.  Rather than continually trying to get more talent, we've contently waited around for talent to bloom.  

 

This "immense young talent" we speak of doesn't include a catcher, an ace, or possibly even a lock-down reliever or shortstop.  Who are we waiting for who figures to be a huge upgrade over what we have on the field now?  Polanco maybe?  Pinto doubtfully?  We have a bunch of average players and no stars.  Will May and Berrios have better years next year than Pelf and Milone had this year?  Mauer can't be moved.  Once Bux and Kepler are up, how do the cupboards look?

 

This is why I don't understand what's wrong with trading Perkins and Dozier.  The supposed rebuild we've been in the last few years was not done properly.  Five years is plenty of time to have every single position solidified with good prospects or young major leaguers.  TR didn't do that.  We have Sano, a few pitchers, and Buxton, Rosario, etc. in the outfield.  No SS, C, 1B, or bullpen.  We also have a surplus of 4-5 starters who are not going anywhere.  We have Dozier, Plouffe, and Perkins who are good players, but will be good while the team is not (which to me is useless, but some may want an all star on the team at all times). Trade all 3 and continue building for '18 or '19.

 

I know the thought of being bad for a few more years sucks as a fan of the twins, but if we really want to stack young talent together and make multiple deep playoff runs the rebuild should continue and that could start by moving Dozier, Plouffe and Perkins.

[Clear Lake Twinsfan]

One name missing from Seth's list of Twins veterans who could be dealt in August is Kevin Jepson.  Would he clear waivers?  Would he bring a return comparable to or better than what we gave up to get him?  

[ashbury]

One name missing from Seth's list of Twins veterans who could be dealt in August is Kevin Jepson.  Would he clear waivers?  Would he bring a return comparable to or better than what we gave up to get him?  

No.

 

And, no.

[OleJC]

I have a very hard time believing we would need a king's ransom for Plouffe and (especially) Escobar. Plouffe is a solidly above average 3B in both hitting (closer to average) and fielding.  (top 20% in most ratings) But we have a 3B prospect that has the potential to be a top 3 bat and who is every bit as athletic (albeit raw) as Plouffe was coming up at 3rd. If Plouffe could learn it, so can Sano. If we can upgrade our Catching or Shortstop positions or bring in top tier prospects, I think you jump at it.

 

As for Escobar...come on. He's a .240 hitter who can't even get on base anywhere near 30% of the time. When he walks, it's almost by accident. His best plays defensively are when he knocks the ball down, which for most guys at SS would involve them throwing someone out to complete it. Demand a big return for him?...if the Willmar Stingers offered us Eddie Estrada we'd be getting a good deal!

[Vanimal46]

Yep, very few on the list push the needle up in significant trade negotiations during this season... This offseason Plouffe would be the best option to use as a feature piece in trade talks for position upgrades. Preferably for younger, near MLB-ready talent at C or SP if they go that route.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Hunter is going to keep playing until he has negative value. I hope the Twins aren't the team paying for that season. It could be next year.

 

THIS season isn't over yet.

[h2oface]

 

You guys do realize that Nolasco will have a fantastic comeback season next year, right? Twins give up on an injured pitcher, he goes anywhere else, he shines.

 

Same thing could happen to Arcia. Send him to Boston, watch him become another home run hitter of historic dimensions, tho Boston would much rather have Vargas.

Are you channeling the thought process of Terry Ryan now? Fear of trading the wrong redundancy paralyzes one from taking any action? I thought this year, the second of the 4 year contract, was supposed to be the "comeback season" for Nolasco. 

[jimbo92107]

 

Are you channeling the thought process of Terry Ryan now? Fear of trading the wrong redundancy paralyzes one from taking any action? I thought this year, the second of the 4 year contract, was supposed to be the "comeback season" for Nolasco. 

Naw, I'm just reflecting the trendy pessimism of about half the guys here. As soon as some "broken" player leaves the Twins, he has a career year. Should have used the /snark tag... ;-)

Edited August 12, 2015 by jimbo92107

[nokomismod]

This is why I don't understand what's wrong with trading Perkins and Dozier.  The supposed rebuild we've been in the last few years was not done properly.  Five years is plenty of time to have every single position solidified with good prospects or young major leaguers.  TR didn't do that.  We have Sano, a few pitchers, and Buxton, Rosario, etc. in the outfield.  No SS, C, 1B, or bullpen.  We also have a surplus of 4-5 starters who are not going anywhere.  We have Dozier, Plouffe, and Perkins who are good players, but will be good while the team is not (which to me is useless, but some may want an all star on the team at all times). Trade all 3 and continue building for '18 or '19.

 

I know the thought of being bad for a few more years sucks as a fan of the twins, but if we really want to stack young talent together and make multiple deep playoff runs the rebuild should continue and that could start by moving Dozier, Plouffe and Perkins.

Even though this is going to be unpopular with the casual fans, I believe this is the best option for a return to a good baseball team. The Twins just don't have enough talent that is close to being ready at several key positions, and this luke warm rebuild is never going to progress when the best players on the team are guys like Dozier and Plouffe. Trade them when they have value and build young with Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Berrios, May, and hopefully some good return at catcher, SP, and maybe SS from the previously mentioned trades. Edited August 12, 2015 by nokomismod

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is why I don't understand what's wrong with trading Perkins and Dozier.  The supposed rebuild we've been in the last few years was not done properly.  Five years is plenty of time to have every single position solidified with good prospects or young major leaguers.  TR didn't do that.  We have Sano, a few pitchers, and Buxton, Rosario, etc. in the outfield.  No SS, C, 1B, or bullpen.  We also have a surplus of 4-5 starters who are not going anywhere.  We have Dozier, Plouffe, and Perkins who are good players, but will be good while the team is not (which to me is useless, but some may want an all star on the team at all times). Trade all 3 and continue building for '18 or '19.

 

I know the thought of being bad for a few more years sucks as a fan of the twins, but if we really want to stack young talent together and make multiple deep playoff runs the rebuild should continue and that could start by moving Dozier, Plouffe and Perkins.

Whoa, whoa, whoa... I'm sorry but you're 100% wrong about rebuilds.

 

1. First things first, this isn't the fifth year of the rebuild. Ryan returned to the Twins as GM before the 2012 season. This makes it the fourth year of the rebuild and the Twins continue to toy with .500 this season. 2011 forced the Twins to rebuild, it wasn't a rebuild season.

 

2. Had the Twins not been on the unfortunate side of the luck donkey in 2014, they'd probably be a few games better in 2015. Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Rosario all had unfortunate setbacks last season. Four of your top five prospects. No team makes it through a season like that without setting back their time table.

 

3. Rebuilds typically take 4-5 years to complete. How long do you think it takes a high ceiling prep player to reach the majors? If he debuts as a 22 year old after being drafted as an 18 year old, well... I'm pretty sure you can do the math on that one. And that's only applicable to prep players who were drafted in the first season of the rebuild. Expecting a team to debut solid prospects at every position after four seasons of a rebuild is sheer lunacy and completely unreasonable.

 

Friedman was hired by the Rays before the 2004 season and started implementing his new player development strategy. He took over the GM role before the 2006 season. The Rays had a contender in 2008. Five seasons... and this was building a team that had drafted in the top five of baseball for its entire existence.

 

The Astros pushed the big red "EXPLODE" button before the 2011 season. Their first competitive season since that rebuild started? 2015. Five seasons.

 

Epstein took over the Cubs roughly the same time Ryan returned to the Twins. The Cubs' first competitive season? 2015. Four seasons.

 

Before the 2008 season, Neal Huntington took over a Pirates team that hadn't seen a winning season since Teddy Roosevelt created the National Parks system. The Pirates returned to contention in 2013. Six seasons.

 

I do not understand where people get the idea that a rebuild is a failure if it's not successful within 36 months of its implementation. Baseball moves at a glacial pace, folks. You better learn patience with this sport or it's going to drive you to an early grave.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa... I'm sorry but you're 100% wrong about rebuilds.

 

1. First things first, this isn't the fifth year of the rebuild. Ryan returned to the Twins as GM before the 2012 season. This makes it the fourth year of the rebuild and the Twins continue to toy with .500 this season. 2011 forced the Twins to rebuild, it wasn't a rebuild season.

 

2. Had the Twins not been on the unfortunate side of the luck donkey in 2014, they'd probably be a few games better in 2015. Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Rosario all had unfortunate setbacks last season. Four of your top five prospects. No team makes it through a season like that without setting back their time table.

 

3. Rebuilds typically take 4-5 years to complete. How long do you think it takes a high ceiling prep player to reach the majors? If he debuts as a 22 year old after being drafted as an 18 year old, well... I'm pretty sure you can do the math on that one. And that's only applicable to prep players who were drafted in the first season of the rebuild. Expecting a team to debut solid prospects at every position after four seasons of a rebuild is sheer lunacy and completely unreasonable.

 

Friedman was hired by the Rays before the 2004 season and started implementing his new player development strategy. He took over the GM role before the 2006 season. The Rays had a contender in 2008. Five seasons... and this was building a team that had drafted in the top five of baseball for its entire existence.

 

The Astros pushed the big red "EXPLODE" button before the 2011 season. Their first competitive season since that rebuild started? 2015. Five seasons.

 

Epstein took over the Cubs roughly the same time Ryan returned to the Twins. The Cubs' first competitive season? 2015. Four seasons.

 

Before the 2008 season, Neal Huntington took over a Pirates team that hadn't seen a winning season since Teddy Roosevelt created the National Parks system. The Pirates returned to contention in 2013. Six seasons.

 

I do not understand where people get the idea that a rebuild is a failure if it's not successful within 36 months of its implementation. Baseball moves at a glacial pace, folks. You better learn patience with this sport or it's going to drive you to an early grave.

 

All of those teams you mentioned have done a better job than the twins.   Do any of them have Hughes, Nolasco, Santana and Mauer sitting on their roster while they expect to win?   Some of you people are feeding everyone that next year and the year after are in our window to contend.   That is a pipe dream.  You don't win anything with 3 average at best starters being paid big bucks and a below average first baseman making 23 million.  I blame no one for Mauer's collapse and contract issues but himself because he was paid fairly at the time.

 

We're well past the first 36 months of this poorly attempted rebuild, so not sure where you came up with that number.

 

Everyone is so caught up in the positives of the twins that they fail to see the underlying issues that are going to expose themselves in the next few years: no elite pitching, overpaid veterans, no C, no SS, no BP, and TR still running the show.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

All of those teams you mentioned have done a better job than the twins.   Do any of them have Hughes, Nolasco, Santana and Mauer sitting on their roster while they expect to win?   Some of you people are feeding everyone that next year and the year after are in our window to contend.   That is a pipe dream.  You don't win anything with 3 average at best starters being paid big bucks and a below average first baseman making 23 million.  I blame no one for Mauer's collapse and contract issues but himself because he was paid fairly at the time.

 

We're well past the first 36 months of this poorly attempted rebuild, so not sure where you came up with that number.

 

Everyone is so caught up in the positives of the twins that they fail to see the underlying issues that are going to expose themselves in the next few years: no elite pitching, overpaid veterans, no C, no SS, no BP, and TR still running the show.

 

Do we have gaps, absolutely.  But how many teams in the league right now would trade their best 3 players for Sano, Berrios, and Buxton?  I would venture 20 at least.

 

And how many can look out the next 2-3 years and say they have elite pitching, a great shortstop, a great pen,, a good catcher, no overpaid veterans, etc? Very few, if any.

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Do we have gaps, absolutely.  But how many teams in the league right now would trade their best 3 players for Sano, Berrios, and Buxton?  I would venture 20 at least.

 

And how many can look out the next 2-3 years and say they have elite pitching, a great shortstop, a great pen,, a good catcher, no overpaid veterans, etc? Very few, if any.

 

I do not disagree on our big three.

 

However, I bet every decent organization has a plan to deal with all of the issues stated above.

 

The very few teams that have all of those pieces are going to win championships and we will continue to have decent pieces and glaring gaps.  We will eventually fill these gaps only to come to the realization that Dozier, Perkins, etc. are now not good any more and therefore we have different gaps.  This is the twins way... an unending cycle of gaps. 

 

The twins need to figure out that you have to have no gaps to win championships.  Some GM's have figured this out, TR has not.

[SwainZag]

 

I do not disagree on our big three.

 

However, I bet every decent organization has a plan to deal with all of the issues stated above.

 

The very few teams that have all of those pieces are going to win championships and we will continue to have decent pieces and glaring gaps.  We will eventually fill these gaps only to come to the realization that Dozier, Perkins, etc. are now not good any more and therefore we have different gaps.  This is the twins way... an unending cycle of gaps. 

 

The twins need to figure out that you have to have no gaps to win championships.  Some GM's have figured this out, TR has not.

 

How many teams have zero gaps and continually are winning championships?  

[tobi0040]

 

How many teams have zero gaps and continually are winning championships?  

 

How many "continually win championships"?

 

Since 2001, Boston (3), Giants (3), Cards (2) have won more than one. Boston had nine years between their first and third and it had been a while prior to that.  Five years for the Cards.   Not sure if that counts as "continually", but that would be 10% of the league. 

 

I would just caution, if that is the bar the odds of being satisfied are really low.

 

Edited August 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[Everyday Eddy]

 

How many teams have zero gaps and continually are winning championships?  

 

Are you serious?

 

Giants, Cards, Tigers had their upswing but fell short, Angels are always good, Rays had their strong run.

 

Clearly no team can be perfect evey year, but there are definitely methods to put together championship organizations.  Most GM's probably laugh at what TR has done with his implementation of awful veteran contracts .

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

All of those teams you mentioned have done a better job than the twins.   Do any of them have Hughes, Nolasco, Santana and Mauer sitting on their roster while they expect to win?   Some of you people are feeding everyone that next year and the year after are in our window to contend.   That is a pipe dream.  You don't win anything with 3 average at best starters being paid big bucks and a below average first baseman making 23 million.  I blame no one for Mauer's collapse and contract issues but himself because he was paid fairly at the time.

 

We're well past the first 36 months of this poorly attempted rebuild, so not sure where you came up with that number.

 

Everyone is so caught up in the positives of the twins that they fail to see the underlying issues that are going to expose themselves in the next few years: no elite pitching, overpaid veterans, no C, no SS, no BP, and TR still running the show.

Have those teams actually done a better job than the Twins? Given they all had 4+ years to enact a plan and see it to fruition, we can't answer that question definitively.

 

This offseason will see the four year mark pass. Right now, the Twins are a fringe contender. Hopefully, they hit the four year mark running next season. Do I wish some things had been done differently? Of course... But you're the one placing expectations on the team that follow an unrealistic timeline, not me.

 

I just listed four of the most successful rebuilds of the past decade and none of them took less than four years to see results. On top of that, most of those teams were mediocre to terrible well before the rebuild was enacted. It's a lot easier to rebuild a team quickly if you have high draft picks for 2-3 years before a formal rebuild even starts. The Twins were a 94 win team in 2010. They didn't receive their first high draft pick until June of 2012.

[tobi0040]

 

Are you serious?

 

Giants, Cards, Tigers had their upswing but fell short, Angels are always good, Rays had their strong run.

 

Clearly no team can be perfect evey year, but there are definitely methods to put together championship organizations.  Most GM's probably laugh at what TR has done with his implementation of awful veteran contracts .

 

None of the teams mentioned have avoided bad veteran contracts.

 

Boston - How does the Sandoval and Ramirez contract not end up bad? They gave John Lackey $90M. Carl Crawford?

 

Tigers - Verander anyone?  Prince/Kinsler? Victor.

 

Angles - The Pujols deal has been bad and will not get better over the next 7-8 years.  They paid Hamilton $85M to not play for them.

 

Giants - Barry Zito?  Lincecum?

 

Cards - They offered Pujols $200m+ and 10 years and got lucky

Edited August 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Have those teams actually done a better job than the Twins? Given they all had 4+ years to enact a plan and see it to fruition, we can't answer that question definitively.

 

This offseason will see the four year mark pass. Right now, the Twins are a fringe contender. Hopefully, they hit the four year mark running next season. Do I wish some things had been done differently? Of course... But you're the one placing expectations on the team that follow an unrealistic timeline, not me.

 

I just listed four of the most successful rebuilds of the past decade and none of them took less than four years to see results.

 

My problem is that TR has sabotaged the rebuild with the bad contracts.  He sells fans that we're in win-now mode when we aren't really.  He then proceeds to sign veterans who cripple the whole org by creating log jams.  

 

I've pointed out major issues that many people just decide to brush aside (almost the same way TR does with any big issue).  I hope we win soon, but I can't sit here and realistically say the future is as bright as many make it out to be.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

 

None of the teams mentioned have avoided bad veteran contracts.

 

Boston - How does the Sandoval and Ramirez contract not end up bad? They gave John Lackey $90M. Carl Crawford?

 

Tigers - Verander anyone?  Prince/Kinsler? Victor.

 

Angles - The Pujols deal has been bad and will not get better over the next 7-8 years.  They paid Hamilton $85M to not play for them.

 

Giants - Barry Zito?  Lincecum?

 

Cards - They offered Pujols $200m+ and 10 years and got lucky

 

Every single one of those guys was an all star.  Also those teams aren't afraid to get rid of bad contracts

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My problem is that TR has sabotaged the rebuild with the bad contracts.  He sells fans that we're in win-now mode when we aren't really.  He then proceeds to sign veterans who cripple the whole org by creating log jams.  

 

I've pointed out major issues that many people just decide to brush aside (almost the same way TR does with any big issue).  I hope we win soon, but I can't sit here and realistically say the future is as bright as many make it out to be.

I also disagree with several of the moves that have been made, particularly in the past twelve months.

 

But you're calling for Ryan's head using a bad argument. It's unfair to point out the successes of other general managers while refusing to give Ryan the same amount of time to fully enact his plan. It doesn't mean you can't criticize Ryan for individual moves but it does mean calling for his head - or the rebuilding of the franchise itself - terribly premature.

 

What happens if the Twins win 89-91 games next season and make the postseason? Will you recant your position?

[tobi0040]

 

Every single one of those guys was an all star.  Also those teams aren't afraid to get rid of bad contracts

 

At one point they were all stars.  The term was "awful veteran contract".  Every one now either qualifies as one or has a long, commitment in which the outlook is not good. 

 

The fact that those teams may have an owner that will let them dump a guy like Hamilton is not Terry's issue.

 

It should also be noted that Nolasco's for example, pales in comparison to the horrible Pujols, Hamilton, or Zito contract.

Edited August 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[Everyday Eddy]

 

I also disagree with several of the moves that have been made, particularly in the past twelve months.

 

But you're calling for Ryan's head using a bad argument. It's unfair to point out the successes of other general managers while refusing to give Ryan the same amount of time to fully enact his plan. It doesn't mean you can't criticize Ryan for individual moves but it does mean calling for his head - or the rebuilding of the franchise itself - terribly premature.

 

What happens if the Twins win 89-91 games next season and make the postseason? Will you recant your position?

 

If Ryan makes the changes necessary to win 89-91 games I'll give him all the credit in the world.   He won't though

[Everyday Eddy]

 

At one point they were all stars.  The term was "awful veteran contract".  Every one now either qualifies as one or has a long, commitment in which the outlook is not good. 

 

The fact that those teams may have an owner that will let them dump a guy like Hamilton is not Terry's issue.

 

It should also be noted that Nolasco's for example, pales in comparison to the horrible Pujols, Hamilton, or Zito contract.

 

Those players are more similar to Mauer than Nolasco, Hughes or Santana.   At least Mauer and those guys earned a big pay day and were good for some of the contract.   We rewarded the others for being old and average.

[tobi0040]

 

If Ryan makes the changes necessary to win 89-91 games I'll give him all the credit in the world.   He won't though

 

We are .500 right now.

 

It is entirely realistic to me that if you annualize Sano's production, add Buxton, and swap Berrios for Pelfrey, and give May 15 additional starts a year we could squeak out 7 more wins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We are .500 right now.

 

It is entirely realistic to me that if you annualize Sano's production, add Buxton, and swap Berrios for Pelfrey, and give May 15 additional starts a year we could squeak out 7 more wins.

Yeah, this. I'll reserve judgment until something actually goes wrong. I'm not going to predict massive failure when the Twins are already 5+ games better than any of us expected going into the season.

[tobi0040]

 

Those players are more similar to Mauer than Nolasco, Hughes or Santana.   At least Mauer and those guys earned a big pay day and were good for some of the contract.   We rewarded the others for being old and average.

 

That really isn't the point.  Whether you give a once all star/cy young guy $200M from ages 31-38....or give a slightly above average pitcher 4/49, both are likely to end up as "awful bad contracts".  The fact that the one has a higher number is a reflection that the player was once better.  But in all cases, all the teams above have made poor decisions in that regards.

 

Some can absorb them better than others.  But swapping GM's won't fix that.  That is an owner issue.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

We are .500 right now.

 

It is entirely realistic to me that if you annualize Sano's production, add Buxton, and swap Berrios for Pelfrey, and give May 15 additional starts a year we could squeak out 7 more wins.

 

The twins do not deserve to be a .500 team right now.  And TR will figure out a way to avoid the common sense you just used to fix the roster for next year