Article: Twins Have Been Broken Since The Break

[nytwinsfan]

 

last year was way out of character for Hughes.

 

2011: 4.58 FIP

2012: 4.56 FIP

2013: 4.50 FIP

2014: 2.65 FIP

2015: 4.78 FIP

 

One of these years is not like the other.  And Ryan bit on the one outlier year.

 

Yeah, but his peripherals had also improved, as represented by FIP. It wasn't like if his ERA had just improved, or if a hitter's BABIP and thus average had improved. Of course there is still a lot of risk it is an outlier, but there was legitimate reason to think he might have improved as a pitcher.

Edited August 10, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Admittedly, not everyone, but a lot of people thought it was worth rolling the die on Hughes......now, rolling the dice on Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana, that was not as popular. Each decision, on its own, might have merit. All three? Not so sure.

Completely agree. In terms of order from worst to best bet, I would put them as Nolasco, Santana, Hughes. I still have hope for the latter two. Get Hughes' arm some time off and give Santana some time to get rid of the rust before we judge.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I agree and disagree with this at the same time, and it is more of a, "what else could/should we have done?" I too liked all 3 of those signings at the time of them. I never at any point liked the Pelfrey singing first or second time. However, I also never thought that any of those signing gave us a top #1-2 type of starter, and in fact I personally felt they were all #4-5 starters, which is probably true if you look at their past performances and future projections.

 

Now, I also felt like they ALL were upgrades from what we were throwing out there in previous years, so I felt they absolutely improved this team, and they by in large have done that for the most part, until recently. I did not think any of them were the type of pitchers that could lead us to the postseason, or give us a chance if we somehow snuck in to the postseason. I thought this current staff makeup was decent, but very flawed, and more of a lower-middle of the pack type of rotation, and thats probably what their true level is. Not good, but not this bad.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, but his peripherals had also improved, as represented by FIP. It wasn't like if his ERA had just improved, or if a hitter's BABIP and thus average had improved. Of course there is still a lot of risk it is an outlier, but there was legitimate reason to think he might have improved as a pitcher.

I think in 2014, with him ditching certain pitches and relying on others that were more effective, that helped him. If we are to trust pitch f/x (and there are plenty who say don't) we can see how his pitch selection has changed from last year to this year and the results have not been good.  I think, coming into this season, there was reason to believe he may have finally become a pitcher who would perform in the high 3s-very low 4 FIP based on last year, but they seemed to have changed what worked with him.  Plus his velocity is down, and that doesn't help.

[KGB]

 

Should I suggest adding May to the rotation, or would that be beating the dead horse?

As long as you don't suggest replacing Pelfrey, he our best stater since the break.  And he looks even better knowing that he not guareented $10+ million over the next 2-4 years.

[jimmer]

Our rotation's season AL rankings:

 

12th in FIP

13th in Ks

14th (actually tied for last) in K/9

11th in HR/9

15th in BAA (by a good margin)

12th (tied) in OBP against

14th in SLG% against

15th in OPS against (by 10 points)

 

We still have almost a third of a season left.  Let's see how these ranking look then. But looking at these numbers, it makes me wonder when we say it's the starting pitching that kept us in playoff contention.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think in 2014, with him ditching certain pitches and relying on others that were more effective, that helped him. If we are to trust pitch f/x (and there are plenty who say don't) we can see how his pitch selection has changed from last year to this year and the results have not been good.  I think, coming into this season, there was reason to believe he may have finally become a pitcher who would perform in the high 3s-very low 4 FIP based on last year, but they seemed to have changed what worked with him.  Plus his velocity is down, and that doesn't help.

 

why the bleep did he change again? I don't get it.

[jokin]

 

why the bleep did he change again? I don't get it.

 

Arm/shoulder issues?

[gocgo]

The season is long.  It wears on players.  It's  a grind.  I can understand going to see family over a break...Vegas?  Not so much.  It will be there after the season is over.  The Twins are just going to have to bear down and gut it out.  At the beginning of the season, I said I just wanted them to be competitive.  Competitive baseball is fun to watch.  The blowouts make me want to turn it to one of those bachelor reality shows..  Lately, "reality TV" has been more entertaining than reality baseball.

 

At some point, they have to get sick of losing, suck it up, and compete in every game.  Right now, they show up expecting to lose.

[SheboyganBrats]

If Hughes has a dead arm, maybe he should go to the bullpen and May should return to the starting rotation.  Hughes has been in the bullpen before, and it shouldn't take too long to stretch May out again.  I thought that was the original plan for May anyway.  Rest his arm in the bullpen for awhile and return him to the rotation when rested. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Some Fangraphs articles on Hughes, for some context. The first link is from June and  talks about this year, while the last two are from December. Nice reads.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/both-sides-of-the-phil-hughes-argument/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/twins-reward-the-phil-hughes-breakthrough/

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/regarding-phil-hughes-and-2014/

 

[KGB]

 

why? Explain why it is a good idea to keep a bad player on the roster. You are paying the same money, is it better to keep running out a below replacement level player, and pay him, or cut him, and pay him, and put out a good player?

Keeping a bad player on the roster isn't a good idea, but Mauer may not be a baseball HOF player, but he is going to be a Twins HOF player and have a statue in front of Target field.  And he deserves all of that, so just cutting him isn't an option.  It would be a marketing disaster.

 

But cutting back his playing time and seeing what other players can do should be an option.  At one time, I wanted him to play 150 games a year, but not anymore

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keeping a bad player on the roster isn't a good idea, but Mauer may not be a baseball HOF player, but he is going to be a Twins HOF player and have a statue in front of Target field.  And he deserves all of that, so just cutting him isn't an option.  It would be a marketing disaster.

 

But cutting back his playing time and seeing what other players can do should be an option.  At one time, I wanted him to play 150 games a year, but not anymore

 

People come to watch winners, so if they are going to keep him on the roster, he should play about 1/4 the time....imo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

why? Explain why it is a good idea to keep a bad player on the roster. You are paying the same money, is it better to keep running out a below replacement level player, and pay him, or cut him, and pay him, and put out a good player?

$100M dollars, the face of the franchise, etc. Baring an Adrian Peterson type scenario, it won't happen. Period. Heck, look at A-Rod if you want an example. The Yankees wanted to do anything they could to get out from under that contract this last offseason and still held on to him.

 

This isn't just a TR thing. No way Jim Pohlad signs off on it or the average fan (who like it or not is far more responsible for filling seats at TF than the knowledgeable fan)

[twinsnorth49]

Well cutting Mauer is about as likely as this team finishing about .500 so back to more realistic topics. 

 

Suzuki starting

That bullpen

40 year old outfielders

Mike Pelfrey

Trevor May

Shane Robinson

Infielders in the outfield

Guys named Eduardo being DH

 

 

WTF Terry? Seriously, WTF? 

 

I've showed faith in Ryan since he came back, I think I'm done. Watching this crap for going on 5 years without any definitive direction as to where it's heading and being patronised about the players he thinks we're supposed to accept as making the team better.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Keeping a bad player on the roster isn't a good idea, but Mauer may not be a baseball HOF player, but he is going to be a Twins HOF player and have a statue in front of Target field.  And he deserves all of that, so just cutting him isn't an option.  It would be a marketing disaster.

 

But cutting back his playing time and seeing what other players can do should be an option.  At one time, I wanted him to play 150 games a year, but not anymore

 

It seems that the Twins have been cursed when it comes to Mauer. Seems like we "didn't get enough of a healthy Mauer in the lineup" during his productive years, while we are "getting too much of a healthy Mare in the lineup." Guy can't stay in the lineup during productive years, while he stays healthy in his unproductive yeas.

 

Seriously Joe, you choose NOW to stay healthy?! Because we all know the only way he is being pulled form the lineup is injury, which I will assume will be bound to happen sooner or later I guess. Is an injured more valuable to the club in than an healthy Mauer? Would never wish any harm on any person, so I am not "hoping" this happens, simply that it is then only way he won't be in our lineup.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well, I'm a Mauer fan, not a Mauer basher.

 

I think something creative needs to be done with Mauer, and soon. Can anybody here see him playing first base and batting second or third, for each of the next 3 seasons? Maybe Mauer and Ryan and the Pohlads can figure something out together.

 

I honestly thought Vargas was outplaying Mauer at 1B earlier in the season, or at least not being outplayed by Mauer. Vargas has played 1B his whole life and can get better with time, like Morneau did. I honestly don't think Joe has developed an instinct for it yet, though. By the time he does, if he does, it will be the end of his contract. 

 

Going forward, who is the better bet at first base?

 

And then, yeah, there's that other long list of problems.  I would start on that by giving most of the catching reps in September to Pinto once he's cleared to play. 

[jimmer]

 

Well cutting Mauer is about as likely as this team finishing about .500 so back to more realistic topics. 

 

Suzuki starting

That bullpen

40 year old outfielders

Mike Pelfrey

Trevor May

Shane Robinson

Infielders in the outfield

Guys named Eduardo being DH

 

 

WTF Terry? Seriously, WTF? 

 

I've showed faith in Ryan since he came back, I think I'm done. Watching this crap for going on 5 years without any definitive direction as to where it's heading and being patronised about the players he thinks we're supposed to accept as making the team better.

Did we have any catchers playing OF this season? :-)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Did we have any catchers playing OF this season? :-)

 

Well, they have no catchers......so, ya, nope, no catchers in the OF.

[jimmer]

The OF who has spent the most time in the field this year (by about 85 innings): Torii Hunter. Building for the future!

Edited August 10, 2015 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

 

The OF who has spent the most time in the field this year (by about 85 innings): Torii Hunter. Building for the future!

 

wow.....just, wow.

[troyhobbs]

Obviously players need to play but emotion and confidence is a big variable in sports and an athlete's performance. Terry Ryan sent a pretty big "I don't care about this team this year" message at the deadline and the team has responded accordingly. I thought maybe the FO had turned a corner with the new manager and aggressive promotions of some of the young guys this year but it's still about filling up the seats more than filling up the win column. 

[savvyspy]

 

Keeping a bad player on the roster isn't a good idea, but Mauer may not be a baseball HOF player, but he is going to be a Twins HOF player and have a statue in front of Target field.  And he deserves all of that, so just cutting him isn't an option.  It would be a marketing disaster.

 

But cutting back his playing time and seeing what other players can do should be an option.  At one time, I wanted him to play 150 games a year, but not anymore

I just hope that statue is of Mauer grounding into a 4-6-3 double play.

 

In all seriousness, I would never suggest cutting Joe but they have to figure out how they can at least move him out of the #3 hole or down in the order and free up some playing time at 1B. He is not a major league caliber 1st baseman and he hasn't been an elite bat in almost 2 years.

 

He can still get on base which makes him a better hitter than 2/3rds of the options this team has on its roster. I would like to see an extended look as the #2 hitter just to maybe take advantage of his remaining asset, he can get on base.

 

Beyond that he really isn't providing much in the way of value.

[BPresty]

My solution is Start Robinson at pitcher

[mikelink45]

They are the proverbial spare tire - patches all over the place when a new inner tube or tire is needed.  The veterans are not going to do and right now the young are not either, but the Astros showed us that giving the young a year to fail together could lead to a year where they succeed together.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Suzuki starting
 

The dream is over, now the nightmares have set it.

 

It's a tough situation when your dream/nightmare has Matt Walbeck starting at catcher and there is a rainbow in the background and cute little bunnies hopping around in foul territory. I think I am going to have to drink more alcohol to make my sleep void of any visions.

[hybridbear]

 

mike wants wins, on 10 Aug 2015 - 08:03 AM, said:

What evidence is there that he's a good coach?

 

They need to clean house.

Based on the energy & enthusiasm he brought to the team at the start of the season there was some indication that he would be a good influence for the younger players. Torii has been able to adapt over the years that he has played baseball & he should have some wisdom to impart to the young players.

 

mike wants wins, on 10 Aug 2015 - 08:16 AM, said:

why? Explain why it is a good idea to keep a bad player on the roster. You are paying the same money, is it better to keep running out a below replacement level player, and pay him, or cut him, and pay him, and put out a good player?

I wish the FO would think this way.

 

[hybridbear]

Dantes929, on 10 Aug 2015 - 08:47 AM, said:

My biggest criticism of the Twins this year is how they handled May.    Arguably the best stuff on the rotation and maybe the last guy they should have taken out.   Then instead of him being the guy they give the ball to for 4 innings when a starter only goes 5 and the game is still close they hardly use him at all and then only for an inning at a time so when Milone goes down he is unable to go back to the rotation.

 

I agree!

[jimmer]

 

Based on the energy & enthusiasm he brought to the team at the start of the season there was some indication that he would be a good influence for the younger players. Torii has been able to adapt over the years that he has played baseball & he should have some wisdom to impart to the young players.

 

 

Yeah , that was a great narrative they predictably put out there.  Torii getting a huge chunk of the credit for the winning. He taught them how to win.Now that the tailspin has happened, where did all that go? Or is he now on to chapter two? entitled: Teaching them how to lose. :-)

 

I imagine Torii will go right into broadcasting.  He'll fit right in with guys like Harold Reynolds.  Re-telling his old baseball stories on the air (doing his favorite thing, talking about himself), continuing to spread 'old school wisdom' and basically just enjoying the fact there is a mic hooked up to him and he can talk to millions.