Article: Twins Have Been Broken Since The Break

[Nick Nelson]

Prior to Sunday's series finale against the Indians, Paul Molitor expressed confidence that starting pitcher Phil Hughes would be able to provide a little relief for a beleaguered staff that had been battered for 26 runs on 33 hits between Friday and Saturday.

 

Modestly setting the expectation at five innings seemed reasonable given that Hughes had made it that distance in all but two of his 54 starts since the beginning of 2014.

 

Instead, he looked as bad as he ever has in a Twins uniform, lasting only three innings while allowing seven runs on nine hits.

 

It's been that kind of second half so far for Molitor and his spiraling club.Since beating Oakland 5-0 in their first game after the All-Star break, the Twins have been in full meltdown mode, winning only five of 21 games with the competition looking increasingly lopsided.

 

Simultaneously, every facet of the roster that Molitor had come to rely on over the first three months is sputtering.

 

Hughes now sports a 5.53 ERA in five post-break starts, and has been part of a systematic failure for a rotation that has collectively recorded only four wins in 22 contests since the All-Star Game after a first-half turnaround that was one of the big stories in baseball.

 

Here's what all of the Twins starters have done since the break. (Context: The average American League starter has a 4.12 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this year.)

 

Phil Hughes: 5.53 ERA, 1.48 WHIP

Kyle Gibson: 8.59 ERA, 1.72 WHIP

Ervin Santana: 5.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Mike Pelfrey: 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Tommy Milone: 7.98 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

 

And of course we saw what happened to Tyler Duffey in his lone start.

 

Despite some troubling indicators (namely a dreadfully low strikeout rate), Minnesota's starting pitching continued to be reliably solid throughout the first half of the season. Over the past three weeks it has been anything but.

 

Of course, the rotation isn't the only previously steady unit that has unraveled.

 

Twins hitters batted a respectable .256 before the break but are at .221 since, following Sunday's three-hit effort against Corey Kluber. The quality output from Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano hasn't offset struggles everywhere else in the lineup, including from cornerstones that the Twins have come to count on so heavily.

 

Brian Dozier, whose production in the first half bordered on MVP-caliber, is hitting .212/. 272/.424 since he homered in the All-Star Game.

 

Joe Mauer, who appeared to be returning to form to some extent when he batted .325 with an .829 OPS in 20 games leading up the break, has sunk back into sub-mediocrity, with a .244/.306/.333 slash line in 21 games since.

 

Torii Hunter is batting .209 since the break and Trevor Plouffe is at .203.

 

And then there's Glen Perkins, whose post-break struggles epitomize this ongoing funk. As a media-friendly Minnesota native with three consecutive All-Star appearances under his belt, the long-tenured Perkins has sort of become the unofficial ambassador for the team. He was automatic in the first half, and his ability to nail down every narrow ninth-inning lead was a huge part of the club's unexpected success.

 

Plenty of players have seen their performance drop off since that four-day mid-July respite, but nobody has looked as unlike himself as Perkins, who has blown two of four save attempts while getting slammed by opponents to the tune of .387/.424/.774 in seven appearances. He's been the only completely trustworthy option in a bullpen that has been shaky for most of the year, so the impact his ineffectiveness is magnified.

 

As good as the Twins looked back in May, they've looked equally bad during this latest stretch, across every phase of the game. Suddenly the good vibes are drying up quickly as this begins to look like a team that could approach 90 losses.

 

Amazingly, in spite of this lengthy slump, the Twins are still clinging to second place in a Central division that many pegged at the start of the season as one of the best in baseball. Monday's day off seems like a critical one, as players and coaches look inward and search for answers in an effort to turn the tide on this immense team-wide slump.

 

What can be done?

 

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[jokin]

In regards to Hughes, he has been complaining about a "dead arm" for quite some time.  It was reported today that he was struggling to reach 90 MPH.  He has been trending downward in velocity since his second start of the season.  Something is definitely wrong with him.

[Kwak]

As the article states (and I agree)--it's not just one or two, or just the bullpen, or all of the pitchers--the problem is pretty much the whole team.  Some have posted that Mauer is the #1 problem--NO!  Mauer is one problem, but not the #1 problem.  Examine the W/L records of the years 2011 to present.  Basically pre-ASG the record is below par (exception: this season) and then things go South fast.  Why?--That is the #1 problem.  Character has to be an issue.  Compare to Cleveland, they made major trades--SELLS, and replaced with young guys.  Most of those guys hit like the CLE team of the 90's, Why the difference?

 

Some very alarming statistics were in the article--but an explanation really was not provided.  In today's and last night's game I noticed Mauer swinging on a 2-0 count when the Twins were way behind.  I often notice Dozier fist pitch swinging--even when the team is way behind.  True, recovering from big deficits rarely happens--but CLE didn't quite Friday.  Give up a six-run inning, and your're a last place team--yet in three innings they are sporting a two-run lead!  They didn't quit--and yet they know they are not going to the playoffs.  Compare to the Twins' "efforts" Saturday and Sunday--huge difference.  Fix the attitude problem or else!

[Danchat]

Should I suggest adding May to the rotation, or would that be beating the dead horse?

[jokin]

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/masonry/000/540/667/795.gif

 

 

I think it is a key missing element from the OP... so, "yes", in a good way.

 

Wake up Twins management and see your obvious blunder for what it was.

Edited August 10, 2015 by jokin

[jimmer]

This team has been broken all year (and for a few years), they just had a nice month of May that allowed so many people to think this was a good team when it isn't.  Whether they believed it was Hunter's miraculous leadership (if it was that, where did it go?) or the HOF rookie manager's magic, they let themselves believe something that just isn't true. Those are fun stories.  Hollywood type things we like to grasp onto. Truth is, this team just has so little proven MLB talent and one hot month didn't change that reality.

[Danchat]

 

they should be moving or trying to move players like [Jepsen]

 

We just traded for him! Now you suggest trading him away? We gave up Hu and Tapia for this guy 10 days ago and now you're ready to ship him out?

 

The Twins aren't going to part with their veterans, especially Hunter. He has a no-trade clause, he's stated that he's going to retire with the Twins, and TR will probably sign him on for next season because "veteran-ness". 

[hybridbear]

 

Danchat, on 09 Aug 2015 - 11:37 PM, said:

The Twins aren't going to part with their veterans, especially Hunter. He has a no-trade clause, he's stated that he's going to retire with the Twins, and TR will probably sign him on for next season because "veteran-ness". 

And this would be a terrible decision. Torii should be hired as a coach after this season, not as a player. If he wants to play then he should go somewhere else. If he truly cares about the Twins then he should be humble enough to recognize that his value is as a mentor & coach, not as a terrible fielding RF.

[Mike Sixel]

I fail to see how just cutting Hunter and Mauer is a bad idea at this point. I fail to see how going with young guys with upside is waving a white flag. Running out terrible veterans "because" is waving the flag.

 

This is what happens when you straddle the fence, and refuse to either go for winning or trading off the present FULLY for the future.

 

The rotation is 80% (plus Nolasco and May, not in the rotation, but also) traded for or FA......why does anyone trust this FO at this point?

[Mike Sixel]

 

And this would be a terrible decision. Torii should be hired as a coach after this season, not as a player. If he wants to play then he should go somewhere else. If he truly cares about the Twins then he should be humble enough to recognize that his value is as a mentor & coach, not as a terrible fielding RF.

 

What evidence is there that he's a good coach?

 

They need to clean house.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mauer is more likely to move back to catcher than he is to get cut. He's got 3 more years left on his deal. We may as well stop thinking this is an option.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mauer is more likely to move back to catcher than he is to get cut. He's got 3 more years left on his deal. We may as well stop thinking this is an option.

 

why? Explain why it is a good idea to keep a bad player on the roster. You are paying the same money, is it better to keep running out a below replacement level player, and pay him, or cut him, and pay him, and put out a good player?

[hybridbear]

On the Spanish broadcast yesterday Juan Berenguer was filling in for Tony Oliva. Juan & Alfonso Fernandez were talking about the Twins' slump since the ASG. Juan questioned the decisions of some of the players to go & party in Vegas or other places during the break or flying back to Latin America to visit family instead of staying home to rest. I don't recall if he named specific players or not, but he was pretty harsh in his criticism of some of the younger players not taking the days off to rest.

[Mike Sixel]

Doesn't seem like the younger players are the issue here, does it?

[Kwak]

 

Doesn't seem like the younger players are the issue here, does it?

Yes, it does.  Compare Cleveland's "young players" and Minnesota's "young players"--who played like professional BB players and who was "posing"?

[Dantes929]

 

This team has been broken all year (and for a few years), they just had a nice month of May that allowed so many people to think this was a good team when it isn't.  Whether they believed it was Hunter's miraculous leadership (if it was that, where did it go?) or the HOF rookie manager's magic, they let themselves believe something that just isn't true. Those are fun stories.  Hollywood type things we like to grasp onto. Truth is, this team just has so little proven MLB talent and one hot month didn't change that reality.

Of course the Twins May was not a reflection of who they are but neither is 4-18.   Plouffe  Hunter, Dozier, and Mauer are not .210 hitters.     The rotation is not a sub 3 ERA group but neither are they a 7+ ERA group.    Perkins is not the 2nd coming of Mariano but he is not a 4 blown games in a row poor man's Ron Davis either.  

 

No doubt they were going to slump eventually but I don't think it is a coincidence that it was after the ASB.    Momentum is such a fragile thing in baseball and taking a 4 day break when hot is often going to cool a team down.   Not complaining because in their pennant years I often welcomed the ASB because I thought it helped them start fresh after a losing streak.    Kind of like a reset button.

 

My biggest criticism of the Twins this year is how they handled May.    Arguably the best stuff on the rotation and maybe the last guy they should have taken out.   Then instead of him being the guy they give the ball to for 4 innings when a starter only goes 5 and the game is still close they hardly use him at all and then only for an inning at a time so when Milone goes down he is unable to go back to the rotation.   It is hindsight but even with the good start my worst vision of the shakeup may have come true.    The Twins may have inserted the worst starter and taken the best starter out.   Again, hindsight, and I wasn't in favor of it but a 6 man rotation would probably have given us better results.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Not really hindsight, frankly, since many people said it was a bad idea at the time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, it does.  Compare Cleveland's "young players" and Minnesota's "young players"--who played like professional BB players and who was "posing"?

 

 I was unaware that this SP staff was full of young players.......Sano and Hicks are about the only ones even hitting right now. I'm not sure what you mean.

[Loosey]

 

Of course the Twins May was not a reflection of who they are but neither is 4-18.   Plouffe  Hunter, Dozier, and Mauer are not .210 hitters.     The rotation is not a sub 3 ERA group but neither are they a 7+ ERA group.    Perkins is not the 2nd coming of Mariano but he is not a 4 blown games in a row poor man's Ron Davis either.  

 

No doubt they were going to slump eventually but I don't think it is a coincidence that it was after the ASB.    Momentum is such a fragile thing in baseball and taking a 4 day break when hot is often going to cool a team down.   Not complaining because in their pennant years I often welcomed the ASB because I thought it helped them start fresh after a losing streak.    Kind of like a reset button.

 

My biggest criticism of the Twins this year is how they handled May.    Arguably the best stuff on the rotation and maybe the last guy they should have taken out.   Then instead of him being the guy they give the ball to for 4 innings when a starter only goes 5 and the game is still close they hardly use him at all and then only for an inning at a time so when Milone goes down he is unable to go back to the rotation.   It is hindsight but even with the good start my worst vision of the shakeup may have come true.    The Twins may have inserted the worst starter and taken the best starter out.   Again, hindsight, and I wasn't in favor of it but a 6 man rotation would probably have given us better results.

The way they managed May's "temporary" move to the bullpen is baffling.  The organization should have had a plan for if/when a starter got hurt, or became ineffective.  One way would have been to keep May "stretched out".  But as you mentioned, he hasn't gone longer than an inning at a time except for once or twice.  However, they keep on throwing out guys such as Boyer, Fien and Graham for multiple inning stretches.  

 

Now to confuse things even more, Molitor said he hope to make May his 8th inning setup guy.  The way the team is playing right now, he might get 15 innings of relevant pitching the rest of the way.

 

I hate to say it because I really did like Molitor as a manager, but I feel like he is doing things the same way Gardenhire did and is putting even less trust in his young pitchers.  How many years do the Twins give him before they move on?  I know it's only one year, but I would hate to see 4-5 years of "blah" baseball before they make a move again.     

[Mike Sixel]

making May a set up guy makes no sense. He's a legit starting candidate.

 

given this is ANOTHER LOST year......he 100% should be in the rotation right now, so they gather more data on him as a starter.

 

Anyone think they will do that?

[nytwinsfan]

 

In regards to Hughes, he has been complaining about a "dead arm" for quite some time.  It was reported today that he was struggling to reach 90 MPH.  He has been trending downward in velocity since his second start of the season.  Something is definitely wrong with him.

If things don't bounce back quickly for the Twins in the next week or two (which is likely), why not shut him down for the rest of the year. Next year we need 2014 Phil Hughes, or at least something closer to 2014 Phil Hughes. He pitched a lot of innings last year. Let's try out Taylor Rodgers, Duffy, and Berrios. Let's see what we've got.

Edited August 10, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[nytwinsfan]

 

why? Explain why it is a good idea to keep a bad player on the roster. You are paying the same money, is it better to keep running out a below replacement level player, and pay him, or cut him, and pay him, and put out a good player?

You are right, of course. But Terry Ryan either doesn't understand what a "sunk cost" is, or more likely, doesn't want to admit that the Twins "franchise player" is a former shell of himself and unlikely to ever return to his former self. If in another week or two if the Twins haven't bounced back, I'd send Mauer to AAA for the rest of the year and call up Kepler and/or Vargas to play 1B. I'd give Mauer another shot next year of course, after all, the concussion symptoms could start to dissipate as they eventually did with Morneau while he was in Colorado. But if he doesn't bounce back quickly early next year, I'd send him back to AAA again. But again, none of that is likely to happen, no matter how "economically rational," it is.

[Teflon]

It seems less likely that a breakdown by every Twins starting pitcher has occurred at the same time than it does that an overall pitching approach that worked earlier is no longer effective. Any observations for or against this?

[Mike Sixel]

 

It seems less likely that a breakdown by every Twins starting pitcher has occurred at the same time than it does that an overall pitching approach that worked earlier is no longer effective. Any observations for or against this?

 

I don't think that is a logical conclusion, actually. This is a small sample size, I don't think we can conclude there is a process issue here for sure........

[jokin]

 

If things don't bounce back quickly for the Twins in the next week or two (which is likely), why not shut him down for the rest of the year. Next year we need 2014 Phil Hughes, or at least something closer to 2014 Phil Hughes. He pitched a lot of innings last year. Let's try out Taylor Rodgers, Duffy, and Berrios. Let's see what we've got.

 

Good call.  Hughes had never pitched 210 innings before, his previous high was 191, 3rd most was 176, after that, much much lower, his totatl this year is within 1 IP of his 4th most innings pitched- he just doesn't have the history of a reliable big innings eater.  

 

He looked pretty shell-shocked in the dugout after getting taken out on Saturday.  The Twins owe him over $50M through 2019, discretion around potential injury seems prudent.

Edited August 10, 2015 by jokin

[Vanimal46]

 

If things don't bounce back quickly for the Twins in the next week or two (which is likely), why not shut him down for the rest of the year. Next year we need 2014 Phil Hughes, or at least something closer to 2014 Phil Hughes. He pitched a lot of innings last year. Let's try out Taylor Rodgers, Duffy, and Berrios. Let's see what we've got.

 

100% on board with that. I didn't watch his last start, but from what I read he was having troubles with velocity barely getting it to 90 MPH? If that's the case, let him rest, rehab, whatever he needs to do to get right again next season. 

Edited August 10, 2015 by Vanimal46

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

It seems less likely that a breakdown by every Twins starting pitcher has occurred at the same time than it does that an overall pitching approach that worked earlier is no longer effective. Any observations for or against this?

Well, I was vey much thinking about this last night, while my toddler was headbutting me and kicking me in the ribs at midnight. Seems like the Twins play is keeping him up at nights too, but that is rant for some different forum.

 

Part of the problem is simply the "type" of pitchers we have in our rotation, and their true talent levels. If you look at all of the different projection systems out there, they all aren't very high on any of our guys. Past performance only has Hughes as successful last year, and Santana for stretches a few years removed. NONE of them have sported good K/9 rates anytime recently.

 

We don't miss bats, and I feel part of that is the talent they don't possess, and has to be part of team philosophy, and the way games are being called behind the plate. I would like to get our catchers comments about what they have or haven't been doing different since the break.

 

I would like see our overall heat maps since the break, and pitch values of the different types of pitches since the break? Basically, "what" AND "where" are we getting pounded as a staff? The bullpen is a different story, well not really, but first things first, as the bullpen really isn't an issue if game is already over once they are in.

[d-mac]

 

making May a set up guy makes no sense. He's a legit starting candidate.

 

given this is ANOTHER LOST year......he 100% should be in the rotation right now, so they gather more data on him as a starter.

 

Anyone think they will do that?

 

May is no longer a "legit starting candidate" at this point. He's a starting pitcher- elect. Just that the Twins are preventing him from being sworn in. 

[jimmer]

 

If things don't bounce back quickly for the Twins in the next week or two (which is likely), why not shut him down for the rest of the year. Next year we need 2014 Phil Hughes, or at least something closer to 2014 Phil Hughes. He pitched a lot of innings last year. Let's try out Taylor Rodgers, Duffy, and Berrios. Let's see what we've got.

last year was way out of character for Hughes.

 

2011: 4.58 FIP

2012: 4.56 FIP

2013: 4.50 FIP

2014: 2.65 FIP

2015: 4.78 FIP

 

One of these years is not like the other.  And Ryan bit on the one outlier year.

[Mike Sixel]

Admittedly, not everyone, but a lot of people thought it was worth rolling the die on Hughes......now, rolling the dice on Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana, that was not as popular. Each decision, on its own, might have merit. All three? Not so sure.