Article: The Real Downside Of Buxton's Injury

[Seth Stohs]

 

Roy Smalley played less than 2 years of minor league ball and he played in an era where guys routinely played little or even skipped the minors altogether. 

 

After being the #1 overall pick out of the best college baseball program of the era. 

[Guest]

 

I agree that the options shouldn't matter.  However if someone would have suggested the same thing for Oswaldo Arcia three years ago, I would have said the same thing.  Different caliber prospects obviously, but to think that what has happened with Arcia, or Hicks, couldn't happen to Buxton would be dangerous.

I don't disagree, but I think Arcia in particular (and to a degee, Hicks too) makes the point valid. Are we REALLY concerned about the possibility of losing Arcia due to options at this point? Maybe he's a late bloomer, but it sure looks like he's replaceable internally. If the same thing should happen with Buxton, his lack of protectability probably won't be any more concerning to me.

[jorgenswest]

I don't disagree, but I think Arcia in particular (and to a degee, Hicks too) makes the point valid. Are we REALLY concerned about the possibility of losing Arcia due to options at this point? Maybe he's a late bloomer, but it sure looks like he's replaceable internally. If the same thing should happen with Buxton, his lack of protectability probably won't be any more concerning to me.

I hope we are concerned about losing a guy who has posted an OPS of 807 against right handed pitching. He has 30 career home runs in 513 at bats. Do the Twins have any other OF that comes close to matching that production against right handed pitchers over the last three years? He did this at a young age and does not need to be a late bloomer. He just needs to continue and be used in a platoon role by the Twins.

 

We should be worried about his performance following his hip injury. The return that may have been too soon had to have messed up his timing. This year might be lost, but he has to be in the plan to start in RF against right handed pitching next year.

[Guest]

 

I hope we are concerned about losing a guy who has posted an OPS of 807 against right handed pitching. He has 30 career home runs in 513 at bats. Do the Twins have any other OF that comes close to matching that production against right handed pitchers over the last three years? He did this at a young age and does not need to be a late bloomer. He just needs to continue and be used in a platoon role by the Twins.

We should be worried about his performance following his hip injury. The return that may have been too soon had to have messed up his timing. This year might be lost, but he has to be in the plan to start in RF against right handed pitching next year.

Guess we'll just disagree. With the OF potential in the system, I'm hopeful that the Twins won't need to be platooning at any OF position within a year or so and I won't lose much sleep over the possibility that a potentially useful platoon OF with limited defensive abilities could run out of minor league options.

[dxpavelka]

 

The more I think about it, the more I hate this take. The REAL downside is he's not on the field producing, and now there is a tiny chance they'll start him in AAA next year. That's the real downside, imo.

I'd be more worried about this if he were 23 or 24 or 25 instead of 21.  Things change fast.  When we called Buxton up and not Sano, people started reading into that move thinking that there might be issues with Sano.  Now, were less than two months later and Sano is in the big leagues, batting cleanup and looking like the real deal and people are stressing about Buxton. 

[dxpavelka]

 

Guess we'll just disagree. With the OF potential in the system, I'm hopeful that the Twins won't need to be platooning at any OF position within a year or so and I won't lose much sleep over the possibility that a potentially useful platoon OF with limited defensive abilities could run out of minor league options.

POTENTIAL is like seeing tracks when deer hunting--You can't make soup out of them.

 

[Jham]

How far down prospect lists do you guys think Buxton falls after another injury and wasted half season? I think is fair to wonder what toll the injuries are having on his body, let alone his development.

[Rosterman]

Service time is moot for a prospect like Buxton. If he shines in Year One and Year Two, he will get a longterm deal he can't refuse.

 

Bigger question is what to do about Aaron Hicks as he inches closer to arbitration with two horrible years and one better than expected year (adding up to about two years of time right now). The Twins have some outfield decisions to make, including the Arcia situation.

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Regarding the service time - He wasn't called up until after the Super-2 deadline (though that's a moving target, so hard to know), so the service time likely won't factor into him leaving any earlier. But it is still frustrating that all those days of him not playing count.

 

 

 

I wonder if he didn't mean the super 2 service time clock, but delaying that by another year...if he continued to struggle. As in, if he didn't get hurt, he likely would have been sent down again. It is possible that we could have tried to push back his FA, or even Super another year if he was struggling and we were continuing to get production out of Rosario and Hicks, and we were out of the hunt.

[jorgenswest]

One of the reasons to wait on service time is so that you don't have prospects passing these deadlines on the DL. Most of Mauer's first year was spent on the DL gaining service time. Had the Twins waited to begin Mauer's service time, they would have negotiated with him after a good 2010 season as opposed to an out of this world 2009 season. He would have been a year older and the contract would likely have been smaller and shorter term.

 

 

[gocgo]

 

Were you watching Buxton's first attempt at the majors? He was as overmatched Aaron Hicks his first go-around. To be perfectly honest, he needs more time in the high minors to learn some plate discipline and really should be in AAA the rest of the year.

Did you watch Buxton's first attempt at every level he has been at so far?  He looked overmatched at each level.  Give him some time in the show and he will adapt and excel.

[h2oface]

Just the conversation of being concerned about using one of Buxton's option years makes me cringe. Worried about whether the prospect can make it in The Show and holding the safety net of option years? If he needs all those option years, the Twins clearly made the wrong choice..... or the Astros made the right choice may be more accurate. Carlos Correa would sure look good in a Twins' uniform at short, eh? 

[h2oface]

 

Service time is moot for a prospect like Buxton. If he shines in Year One and Year Two, he will get a longterm deal he can't refuse.

 

Bigger question is what to do about Aaron Hicks as he inches closer to arbitration with two horrible years and one better than expected year (adding up to about two years of time right now). The Twins have some outfield decisions to make, including the Arcia situation.

 

When look at Hicks, I see this year as the one expected, and the first two partials as the ones that were unexpected. I didn't ever want to believe that he would not make it. I am glad it is happening in a Twins uniform right now, instead of him being run out of town by management and impatient fans.

Edited August 7, 2015 by h2oface

[Major League Ready]

 

Smalley, mouthpiece for the Twins, says what the Twins FO says, news at 11.

Well Mike, this is a distinct possibility.  However, I have interviewed literally thousands of employees in a consulting capacity and I have a pretty good sense of when a guy is regurgitating the company line.  I have heard Smalley and others several times on this topic and I am inclined to believe Smalley's comments are genuine.

 

I also listen to Grant Paulson's show and he commented that Buxton was called up prematurely.  He is a Buxton fan and relatively neutral party. 

 

The fact that Smalley was called up quickly only strengthens the validity of his comments if they were in fact genuine.  

 

Personally, I have been hoping Arcia gets his act together a little so that they could start next year with Hicks, Rosario and Arcia.  Buxton and Kepler to AAA.  At some point Kepler gets his shot.  Buxton takes over in CF and Hicks and Arcia make great platoon / 4th outfielder.  If Kepler meets expectations you trade one of Hicks, Arcia or Rosario.  I would love to see it pan out with Buxton in CF, Kepler in LF and Arcia in RF.  That allows you to get a great return on Hicks if he does not regress because his value is higher as a CF.  Both Kepler and Rosario could play CF if Buxton is injured or gets a day off.

 

Lots of flexibility in this plan.  Maybe you keep all five if Sano can handle 3rd and Plouffe is traded.  Arcia gets lots of ABs at DH and you have lots of flexibility in the OF.  Plus, with a little luck, we would have surplus ML talent to be traded for a ML ready catcher.

 

Still have to figure out a plan at SS.  Let's hope Polanco can handle it.  That would give us one heck of a lineup.  Get Berrios up here at some point next year and we have a good chance of watching a contending team for 10 years.  

[nicksaviking]

Service time is moot for a prospect like Buxton. If he shines in Year One and Year Two, he will get a longterm deal he can't refuse.

What if he doesn't shine in year one or year two? You know, like a normal player? That's what the discussion has been all about. And this has been year one by the way.

Edited August 7, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Mike Sixel]

Well Mike, this is a distinct possibility.  However, I have interviewed literally thousands of employees in a consulting capacity and I have a pretty good sense of when a guy is regurgitating the company line.  I have heard Smalley and others several times on this topic and I am inclined to believe Smalley's comments are genuine.

 

I also listen to Grant Paulson's show and he commented that Buxton was called up prematurely.  He is a Buxton fan and relatively neutral party. 

 

The fact that Smalley was called up quickly only strengthens the validity of his comments if they were in fact genuine.  

 

Personally, I have been hoping Arcia gets his act together a little so that they could start next year with Hicks, Rosario and Arcia.  Buxton and Kepler to AAA.  At some point Kepler gets his shot.  Buxton takes over in CF and Hicks and Arcia make great platoon / 4th outfielder.  If Kepler meets expectations you trade one of Hicks, Arcia or Rosario.  I would love to see it pan out with Buxton in CF, Kepler in LF and Arcia in RF.  That allows you to get a great return on Hicks if he does not regress because his value is higher as a CF.  Both Kepler and Rosario could play CF if Buxton is injured or gets a day off.

 

Lots of flexibility in this plan.  Maybe you keep all five if Sano can handle 3rd and Plouffe is traded.  Arcia gets lots of ABs at DH and you have lots of flexibility in the OF.  Plus, with a little luck, we would have surplus ML talent to be traded for a ML ready catcher.

 

Still have to figure out a plan at SS.  Let's hope Polanco can handle it.  That would give us one heck of a lineup.  Get Berrios up here at some point next year and we have a good chance of watching a contending team for 10 years.

 

This is a great post. We don't always agree, but you are an intelligent poster.

[Mike Sixel]

What if he doesn't shine in year one or year two? You know, like a normal player? That's what the discussion has been all about. And this has been year one by the way.

He is an elite prospect, not a normal one. Seriously, if he is elite, this should not be an issue.

[TheLeviathan]

 

He is an elite prospect, not a normal one. Seriously, if he is elite, this should not be an issue.

 

I do think, with Buxton's injury history, that team control might be more of a factor with him than for most elite prospects.

[jokin]

 

The more I think about it, the more I hate this take. The REAL downside is he's not on the field producing, and now there is a tiny chance they'll start him in AAA next year. That's the real downside, imo.

 

It's impossible for me to fathom that starting him out in AAA next year is under any consideration.  It's impossible for me to fathom that anyone wants Buxton to use the entire alotted rehab time. It's also impossible for me to fathom that anyone is concerned about burning Buxton's options.  If last night was any indication, he should be starting in CF for the Twins by sometime in the next homestand. 

 

Unless there's some ongoing undisclosed health issue, he should be getting as much exposure to major league pitching as possible through the end of 2015, so that he hits the ground running on Opening Day, 2016, to take his rightful place as the Twins leadoff man and team's best position player.  If he stumbles out of the gate after a month or so of PAs next April, that should be the time to give him some more AAA seasoning.

Edited August 8, 2015 by jokin

[Cychotic]

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that to use a player option, a player needs to spend at least 20 days in the minors.  Since days before his contract were purchased don't count, and I assume that days on rehab assignment don't count, does that mean that they could leave Buxton in AAA after his rehab time runs out without actually using an option this year?

I'm hoping that this technicality doesn't matter and he's back up with the big boys soon.

Edit - According to Wikipedia, whatever that's worth.

 

A player is considered to have used one of those three option years when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in any of those 3 seasons

 

Edited August 10, 2015 by Cychotic

[tobi0040]

 

Dozier didn't.  Others would consider Plouffe a top player right now too.  Those guys show a recent history of not extending past free agency.

 

But full discosure, I was in full favor of not extending Dozier past his normal free agency clock, and I'd rather deal Plouffe than extend him.

 

The difference is those guys blossomed pretty late.  When folks speak about Buxton or Mauer for example, they came up younger.

[jimmer]

 

It's impossible for me to fathom that starting him out in AAA next year is under any consideration.  It's impossible for me to fathom that anyone wants Buxton to use the entire alotted rehab time. It's also impossible for me to fathom that anyone is concerned about burning Buxton's options.  If last night was any indication, he should be starting in CF for the Twins by sometime in the next homestand. 

 

Unless there's some ongoing undisclosed health issue, he should be getting as much exposure to major league pitching as possible through the end of 2015, so that he hits the ground running on Opening Day, 2016, to take his rightful place as the Twins leadoff man and team's best position player.  If he stumbles out of the gate after a month or so of PAs next April, that should be the time to give him some more AAA seasoning.

This post makes me feel kind of funny. Like when we used to climb the rope in gym class- Garth

 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

After being the #1 overall pick out of the best college baseball program of the era. 

I did a double-take on this one.  Roy Smalley, #1 overall pick?  Yes, but it was the old "January phase" of the draft, which is probably worth noting!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=1&draft_type=janreg&

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that to use a player option, a player needs to spend at least 20 days in the minors.  Since days before his contract were purchased don't count, and I assume that days on rehab assignment don't count, does that mean that they could leave Buxton in AAA after his rehab time runs out without actually using an option this year?

This is correct.  So it becomes harder not to burn an option with today's news that he has been activated from rehab and optioned to AAA, because that clock to 20 has now started.

 

Hopefully it means we will see him back here within 20 days.  Otherwise, they could have maximized his rehab, then optioned him to finish the AAA season if they wanted, and he still wouldn't have burned an option this year.

 

Not sure of the benefit of optioning him now, although I guess the Twins get to pay him a AAA salary for the next couple weeks.