Article: Will The Twins Ever Hit Again?

[Parker Hageman]

What does Ronda Rousey’s last opponent and the Minnesota Twins’ lineup have in common?

 

Neither can hit.

 

Well, that’s not entirely accurate however, as Bethe Correia hit the mat pretty hard. The Twins’ offense, on the other hand, look like they couldn’t even hit the mat at this point. Sure, pitchers like David Price can make even the best hitters feel like they are swinging a car antenna but, as shocking new research revealed, the Twins have not faced David Price in all 17 games since the All-Star break.Despite not having to face Price every night, the Twins still managed to have one of the least potent lineups post-break. Hits are frequently a precursor to runs. Runs, as the rules would have it, are needed to win baseball games. After scoring 4.3 runs per game in the first half of the year (ninth place), they have struggled mightily to push players across the plate as of late. Through 17 second-half games, the Twins have averaged almost one full run less (3.4 per game) in that time.

 

One of the cornerstones to the team’s first-half success, timely hitting, has all but disappeared. The Twins hit a robust .283 with runners in scoring position prior to the Midsummer Classic (4th in MLB) and have dropped to .218 (26th) since. The ability to accumulate hits at a clip higher than the norm is frankly unsustainable and one of the reasons the team outperformed expectations early on, but now the hits are not coming in any situations -- men on, men off, night, day, home or road. Nothing. Following a night in Toronto in which the soft-tossing Marco Estrada limited the lineup to just two hits resulting in a solitary run -- on a sacrifice fly, no less -- the Twins second-half batting average slipped to .213, the lowest in baseball.

 

This series was supposed to matter. The Twins were desperately clinging to the last wild card and starting a four-game set against an opponent that was looking to steal that ticket from them. To show how serious they are about October baseball, the Blue Jays armed themselves to the gills, preparing for all- out war. So far, it appears that the Twins have brought a knife to a bazooka fight. A rubber knife. That a dog has chewed on. Now, in a whimper of a dog missing its rubber knife, the Twins find themselves on the outside looking in on the postseason.

 

Without some efforts from the offense, there is little hope of getting that spot back.

 

That sort of decline is expected out of a lineup that is loaded with young, unpolished hitters but the Twins’ most notable area of offensive weakness comes from the three professional, veteran hitters at the top of the order.

 

In the beginning of the season the Twins’ top three hitters -- a combination of Brian Dozier, Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer -- scored an average of nearly two runs per game (1.6) thanks to a steady mixture of collecting hits, getting on-base and Dozier popping dingers. Now the Twins’ top of the order throng has been effectively shut down. Dozier can’t find any real estate when he puts the ball in play and far too often he isn’t even able to do that, striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Hunter has regressed significantly over the month of July, batting .193/.230/.351 over his last 61 plate appearances. Mauer, meanwhile, had put together a string of strong games heading into the break but seemingly lost his plate awareness, taking more defensive swings or watching strike three whistle past.

 

What makes this development particularly damning is that it effectively renders Miguel Sano, the lineup’s most tactical weapon, useless. While onlookers celebrate Sano’s patience and zone recognition (a fantastic skill set to have, by the way) the bigger picture is missed. The purpose of the cleanup hitter is to drive in runs. Sano proved that he could do that in the minors and hit the ball really hard in his arrival to the majors. Once he showed he could do unforgivable things to fastballs, opposing teams quickly rationed those pitches. With no one regularly on base ahead of him nor anyone behind him in the order able to contribute, teams happily throw the big man sliders away and let him trot to first base instead of around all of them.

 

The Twins had an opportunity to upgrade some of the underperforming positions in the lineup at the trade deadline but chose not to. Which is fine. The Twins want to dance with the date they brought to the party, for better or worse. If they expect to regain their playoff slot, they need big contributions from the top of the order.

 

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[glunn]

Parker, I am wondering what you would do now if you were the GM and the manager.  

 

What might be done in terms of roster moves and/or lineup management to generate more offense?

 

[jimbo92107]

They refuse to call up the one man that can save them: Oswaldo Arcia. Lefty power bat behind Sano against a soft-tossing rightie pitcher. Boom boom boom boom.

[twinsnorth49]

I don't think the bigger point on Sano is lost on everyone. It just happens that his performance at the plate, no matter how unproductive, has been the only thing to celebrate.

This lineup needs a shakeup no matter how you cut it. Unfortunately the best way to accomplish that has passed but there are still options available, they might not be optimal but it's hard to imagine they could be worse than the status quo.

[Parker Hageman]

Parker, I am wondering what you would do now if you were the GM and the manager. 

 

What might be done in terms of roster moves and/or lineup management to generate more offense?

 

 

Honestly, at this point, not much. Buxton is coming back and will immediately improve the outfield. If Hicks is proving that he can't handle right-handed pitching, there will be opportunities to platoon him with Rosario or Kepler could be up in September.

 

It would be nice to have acquired AJ Pierzynski for a cheap left-handed platoon option with Suzuki -- albeit defensive liability.

 

Shortstop is the biggest issue but Eduardo Escobar can fill in for the remainder of the year. Steady in the field. Occasional pop.  

 

They refuse to call up the one man that can save them: Oswaldo Arcia.

 

 

While I agree with you in theory, the issue has been that Arcia has been far too streaky in Rochester. After binge slamming home runs, he's 6-for-50 (.120). Plus you would have to diminish the defense in the outfield (we discussed this at length on this week's Gleeman & The Geek). Maybe when Buxton is back and September rolls around, Arcia is a platoon option (although the Twins don't want him to be one). 

 

The issue is that if you call up Arcia now, you have to remove Shane Robinson (or maybe a pitcher) from the roster. That's fine but I'm not sure the Twins are interested in doing that immediately. Again, I go back to wanting as much outfield defensive as possible and serviceable offensive contributions versus occasional power and poor defense. 

 

 

[h2oface]

And Tulo was up for grabs, and went for a package that the Twins could have easily bested without giving up the farm. Ryan would have just had to make choices now about the redundancy before he lets the prospects "best by" dates expire. Instead, we will have to put up with Escobar and Nunez at short, and pretend they are acceptable....... and it could have been one of the best in the game instead, for several years to come.

 

Great article, by the way...... and banging analogies.

[by jiminy]

 

You don't need to get rid of Robinson to bring Arcia up, you need to get rid of Eduardo Nunez, he isn't getting tendered this offseason anyways, they are not going to pay Nunez another 2.5 to 2.8 million in arbitration to hang around. Nunez would be claimed you save a couple bucks and you probably get a GCL or lower level player back for him. Worst comes to worse you lose Escobar for any reason than you move Plouffe or Dozier in an emergency situation until you can get a Polanco or Santana back up. If that scenario plays out where you need one of them than you jetison Robinson.

Nunez is arguably the best shortstop on the roster right now.

 

Not saying that's a good thing, just that they are not likely to jettison him.

[Kwak]

Amazing how so many grab the "Arcia Strawman".  It's like he's the panacea--despite previous experiences when he was part of the problem.

[Parker Hageman]

You don't need to get rid of Robinson to bring Arcia up, you need to get rid of Eduardo Nunez, he isn't getting tendered this offseason anyways, they are not going to pay Nunez another 2.5 to 2.8 million in arbitration to hang around.

 

 

The problem with removing Nunez right now is that then the roster is left without a viable backup shortstop option if anything were to happen to Escobar.

 

[USAFChief]

The problem with removing Nunez right now is that then the roster is left without a viable backup shortstop option if anything were to happen to Escobar.

I think the problem is neither Escobar nor Nunez ARE viable options at SS.

[big dog]

 

I think the problem is neither Escobar nor Nunez ARE viable options at SS.

That said, replacing one of them with Arcia doesn't exactly help that problem.  There are some serious holes here, and having everyone slumping at once is a hard problem to solve with one roster move.

[DaveW]

The easiest way to get Arcia or anyone else on the roster is to stop carrying 13 pitchers which is beyond overkill. Duensing isn't going to be back next year regardless and Rourke has stepped up as a LOOGY, so I don't see the hesitation in cutting bait. Boyer I would cut in a heartbeat as well, but I have a feeling TR views him as a cheap option for next year to.

 

Nunez has no business being on this roster as well. He won't be on the team next year, he doesn't hit any more and doesn't field. Bring up Polanco and let him and Escobar share SS duties or call back up Santana to be the back up INF.

 

Robinson shouldn't be on this roster either. Give Mauer an OF glove and start playing him in RF on the Hunter off days.

Edited August 5, 2015 by DaveW

[woolywoolhouse]

It's almost as if the Twins saw how little their front office believes in them to go deep in the post-season after the trade-deadline brought a marginally-better right-handed reliever (who walked the first two men he faced in a Twins' uniform, a stat that has followed him throughout his major-league career) and have lost all motivation to win.

 

Of course, compare that to the team behind the Twins in the Wild Card standing- Toronto- whose front office brought in an ace pitcher, capable bullpen arms, an All-Star shortstop, and the 2014 NL hits leader- and are now looking to take the Wild Card spot, if not the AL East. They're motivated, like the Twins in their can't-lose month of May.

[Mike Sixel]

I think the answer is: sort of.

 

Dozier and Plouffe will hit again.

 

Mauer and Hunter? they are old and bad. Suzuki is just bad. So, no, I don't think they'll hit again in a way that helps a team relative to their peers.  That's 1/3 of your lineup you are giving away. Then there is SS, a position that is at best suspect......44% of your lineup given away......and Hicks with his splits, and Rosario with his "patience"......ya, good luck.

 

And, it isn't hard, as pointed out above, to cut Boyer and Duensing at this point. But, we see it clearly last year and this year, this team doesn't understand, imo, that if you are rebuilding, you play the young guys sooner rather than later.

[HitInAPinch]

The league is catching up with the Twins.  It's just that simple. 

Buxton is probably a year or less away; like Hicks a year ago.

Dozier had Torii should have been put behind Sano weeks ago.

SP got off to a hot start and are now melting.

 

For those still bashing Nunez, this from today's Star Tribune:

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-nunez-polishes-his-defense/320716011/

 

He's hitting .254 in a mear 133 AB's and has played 5 different positions [plus DB].

I'd call that a "value add".

[drjim]

I surprised there haven't been more calls for a return of Vargas. That was such an obvious move less than two months ago.

[biscuit]

Rat own!  Needed to be said.  Problem: what is the solution?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Obviously Arcia isn't a savior, but I think he could help this moribund group.  I think some of his struggles in AAA are due to frustration.

 

Park either Mauer or Hunter on the bench every day and you'd barely even have to see Arcia in the OF too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I surprised there haven't been more calls for a return of Vargas. That was such an obvious move less than two months ago.

Har-har.  Vargas was an obvious move for a team batting Escobar and Nunez at DH.  Not so much this time, with Sano at DH.

[tobi0040]

 

The issue is that if you call up Arcia now, you have to remove Shane Robinson (or maybe a pitcher) from the roster. That's fine but I'm not sure the Twins are interested in doing that immediately.

 

Parker,  I don't understand the reluctance here. I realize this is not you speaking, but the Twins.    Teams usually keep a guy like Robinson on the roster because he can play CF.  But as I see it, Hicks starts there. Rosario, Escobar, and Santana can be there in a pinch situation.  I am not really seeing the value Robinson provides, especially since we don't hit righties that well.

 

The issue with having him on the roster is we get in the "gotta give him some reps, he hasn't played in 3 games so now he starts" mode.  I mean, the guy has an OPS of .607.  Would he really be worse if he was not fresh?

[rghrbek]

Should we be alarmed, that once again Dozier is fizzling in the 2nd half of the season...for the 3rd straight year?  Don't get me wrong, he's our best player, but the k's and super low batting average are cause for concern.

 

The Twins refusal to talk about or deal with (I'm projecting to the future off season) about the problem that is Joe Mauer, is going to become a real big issue in the media.  As it should be.

 

Finally, most of us know the Twins are going to extend Torii, perpetuating the problems from this 2nd half into 2016 (as he gets a year older).

 

There is no guarantee that 2016 is going to be better (with hitting), as the Twins obvious flaws have finally caught up with them.  We can hope that these veteran issues are ironed out (haven't touched on Suzuki) in the off season...not real optimistic they will be though.

[Vanimal46]

 

Finally, most of us know the Twins are going to extend Torii, perpetuating the problems from this 2nd half into 2016 (as he gets a year older).

 

 

Proof from any media outlet that this is for certain? If it is, what a mistake that will be. You shake Torii's hand at the end of the season, tell him thanks for transitioning the team out of the AL Central cellar, and MOVE ON. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Shane Robinson and Oswaldo Arcia can exist together on the same roster, with Robinson as a late inning pinch runner and outfield substitute for Arcia when necessary. 

[tobi0040]

 

Shane Robinson and Oswaldo Arcia can exist together on the same roster, with Robinson as a late inning pinch runner and outfield substitute for Arcia when necessary. 

 

With Hicks, Rosario, and Hunter?  We aren't cutting Hunter.

 

Again what is Robinson providing?   If it is running, you have to net that with what you lose in a bench bat. 

Edited August 5, 2015 by tobi0040

[savvyspy]

 

That said, replacing one of them with Arcia doesn't exactly help that problem.  There are some serious holes here, and having everyone slumping at once is a hard problem to solve with one roster move.

Which puts you back to the original comment that you dump Robinson and bring up Arcia. Robinson is a below replacement player that can literally be found with a phone call at a moments notice in the form of dozens of random outfield options. Arcia doesn't solve the Twins ills alone but he is a material talent upgrade over what they have today. Its not a solution, its a start. Having Arcia at AAA at this point is the Twins front office valuing teaching a young player a lesson in the "Twins Way" over maximizing the talent on the major league roster.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Obviously Arcia isn't a savior, but I think he could help this moribund group.  I think some of his struggles in AAA are due to frustration.

Agreed. I don't expect the guy to come to Minnesota and OPS at a .900 clip, I only expect him to help the team raise its (pathetic) .687 OPS against RHP.

 

And considering how Shane Robinson is the guy blocking Arcia with Buxton on the way in the next few weeks, there's no reason not to pull the trigger on this move. There is literally nothing to lose unless both Hicks and Rosario suffer an injury at the same time (in the next two weeks before Byron is finished rehabbing).

 

I'd say the odds of that happening are... low.

[Matt Kummer]

Right now, the lineup as constructed is hurting the Twins. Dozier should not be hitting in the leadoff spot. I believe Mike Berardino pointed out that 15 of his 23 HR's have been solo. Dozier has 30 HR potential. He should be hitting middle of the order where there is more chance of having runners on. Right now, Sano is the only threat in the middle of the order, and pitchers are happy to walk him to take their chances elsewhere.

Mauer is not a middle of the order hitter. He is rapidly turning into the biggest issue the team has, because they will not address his decline and take steps to mitigate it.

 

I'd run this lineup out:
1. Hicks (he's seriously turned it around)

2. Rosario (hitting reasonably well and fast enough to stay out of enough DP's)

3, Dozier

4. Sano (Having a power threat in front and behind him might actually get him pitches to hit)

5. Plouffe

6. Hunter

7. Mauer (He's a .265-.270 hitter with no power. He belongs down here)

8. Suzuki

9. Escobar

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

With Hicks, Rosario, and Hunter?  We aren't cutting Hunter.

 

Again what is Robinson providing?   If it is running, you have to net that with what you lose in a bench bat. 

No, we are not cutting Hunter. I'm also not necessarily arguing for Robinson's continued employment.

 

Robinson could provide a lot more value to this team than the 8th reliever (which ever one is considered 8th, nobody knows anymore). 

 

What we lose in a bench bat option, we might gain back with experience and speed on the bases and a guy who knows how to steal second late in the game. Molitor doesn't seem to pinch hit anyway, so the concept of an additional bench bat is almost beside the point to me.

 

Robinson also plays outfield well and should sub in for Arcia. I'm not saying Robinson should be the DH or that he should get a start any more often than every week or two, or when someone needs a blow. 

 

[rghrbek]

 

Proof from any media outlet that this is for certain? If it is, what a mistake that will be. You shake Torii's hand at the end of the season, tell him thanks for transitioning the team out of the AL Central cellar, and MOVE ON. 

No verified proof, besides what Torii has said, and the Twins pattern of behavior with veterans they like

[rghrbek]

I'd run this lineup out:

1. Hicks (he's seriously turned it around)

2. Rosario (hitting reasonably well and fast enough to stay out of enough DP's)

3, Dozier

4. Sano (Having a power threat in front and behind him might actually get him pitches to hit)

5. Plouffe

6. Hunter

7. Mauer (He's a .265-.270 hitter with no power. He belongs down here)

8. Suzuki

9. Escobar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure I think Hicks has "seriously turned it around", as he still cannot hit batting left handed....he has played better though....