Article: Draft Gem Duffey Set To Debut

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm good with - an expect - that.

 

Fair....I'd rather Duffey was in the pen, and May / Berrios were starting....but fair. It's not a horrible decision at all, just not the one I'd make.

[TRex]

 

Why is Duffey a more logical choice than Berrios?  Other than Duffey needing Rule 5 protection this winter.  Berrios has roughly the same innings at the same levels, 3 years younger, with notably better K/9 and H/9 rates, only marginally worse BB/9, and basically the same career HR/9 (granted Duffey has been stingy with the HR this year).

I think they just wouldn't want Berrios to have to pitch on 8 days rest... both because of the rust and the extra mental ruminations.

 

While I wouldn't think it would be the main reason, they also might not want their 21 yr. old flyball pitcher to debut on the road against the AL's best HOME offense (also second in HR)!

[Joe A. Preusser]

 

I'm good with - an expect - that.

 

Yes, doesn't that mean he's probably performing well?  We're not going to run him out 2-4 times if he's getting blown up./

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think they just wouldn't want Berrios to have to pitch on 8 days rest... both because of the rust and the extra mental ruminations.

 

While I wouldn't think it would be the main reason, they also might not want their 21 yr. old flyball pitcher to debut on the road against the AL's best HOME offense (also second in HR)!

 

I hope it isn't the latter, that they are afraid.....the Yankees are starting their 21 YO phenom, not protecting him. Other teams have called up their phenoms, and aren't protecting them. If it really is fear, well, I'm tired of what looks like fear. So, I hope it isn't that latter....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, doesn't that mean he's probably performing well?  We're not going to run him out 2-4 times if he's getting blown up./

 

so, you think if he does poorly in his first start, they'll move May or Berrios in?

 

What it likely means is that Milone is still hurt, nothing more or less.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Yes, doesn't that mean he's probably performing well?  We're not going to run him out 2-4 times if he's getting blown up./

 

Milone is on the 15-day DL.. that's at least 2 and probably 3 starts.

[SwainZag]

I wish Duffey luck and hopefully he pitches well, he has certainly earned with how he has pitched this year.  It sucks that every Duffey thread is derailed by "Why not May or Berrios and/or front office incompetence!!" 

 

I would guess that Duffey gets 2-3 starts no matter what.  One road start against arguably the best offense in baseball is a pretty damn short leash for your MLB debut.

[Kwak]

 

We are in a pennant race.

 

Additionally, we already have more than five guys under control for next year and better prospects in the system than him.  As well us two untradeable vets.  All said, he is probably about the 10-12th best starting pitcher in our system so my hopes are not super high, nor is a two start look going to be a good indication of much.

No.  The Twins are not in a pennant race.  Go observe your toilet flush.  The Twins are in that peak volume swirling around--just before the inevitable glug-glug.

 

 

[Kwak]

 

Milone is on the 15-day DL. that's at least 2 and probably 3 starts.

Hence my estimate of 2-3 starts for Duffey.

[tobi0040]

 

No.  The Twins are not in a pennant race.  Go observe your toilet flush.  The Twins are in that peak volume swirling around--just before the inevitable glug-glug.

 

After a disastrous few games we are 2 games back of the wild card.  I suppose pennant is division. I have written that off.  But as of a few days ago this time last year, KC was below .500 and they almost won the WS.

 

Unlikely, but we have a different priority of seeing what we have in Duffey.

[d-mac]

 

I think the reason May couldn't be a 3-4 inning guy is that our bullpen is that bad! 

 

If our bullpen is bad (which it is) then why isn't May pitching more innings? 3-4 inning appearances means less for Bowyer, Duensing, and co. 

[TRex]

 

I hope it isn't the latter, that they are afraid.....the Yankees are starting their 21 YO phenom, not protecting him. Other teams have called up their phenoms, and aren't protecting them. If it really is fear, well, I'm tired of what looks like fear. So, I hope it isn't that latter....

... are you sure that the Yankees haven't considered this? Severino will be starting AT HOME vs Boston, who is the only team close to the Twins on the 'pathetic meter' for offense away from home (OPS of .663 vs. .621).

 

I think a major league front office, when considering promotions, is more than capable of considering all the crap we can come up with, and double it with their own intricate analysis (Sabermetric or otherwise).

[TRex]

 

If our bullpen is bad (which it is) then why isn't May pitching more innings? 3-4 inning appearances means less for Bowyer, Duensing, and co. 

What happened to the 'high leverage' mantra used for why your best pitcher shouldn't just pitch the 9th (not that you, personally, have said that)?

 

I would also posit that, if a reliever is needed for 3-4 innings, the game is probably already lost. Why would you waste a valuable arm like May on 'lost' games just to have him stretched out in case someone got hurt? And in truth, how many games (and with what regularity) does a winning ball club face such situations.

 

Now, one comeback would be that it seems that they did exactly that with Anthony Swarzak, but I would suggest that Trevor May>>>>>>Anthony Swarzak.

[Mike Sixel]

... are you sure that the Yankees haven't considered this? Severino will be starting AT HOME vs Boston, who is the only team close to the Twins on the 'pathetic meter' for offense away from home (OPS of .663 vs. .621).

 

I think a major league front office, when considering promotions, is more than capable of considering all the crap we can come up with, and double it with their own intricate analysis (Sabermetric or otherwise).

He is up, not still in the minors. Not hiding him at all, he is up. So, I hope they really think Duffey is better right now, not that they are afraid for an elite prospect.

[drjim]

Berrios is the better prospect by a long shot, but it is not unreasonable to think that Duffey gives them a better chance to win tonight and in the next couple of starts.

 

I find it wise to not break in Berrios against Toronto in that launching pad.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Fair....I'd rather Duffey was in the pen, and May / Berrios were starting....but fair. It's not a horrible decision at all, just not the one I'd make.

 

My assumption is that at some point, that will happen. I think Duffey can be a solid #4 starter, like May, and that Berrios can potentially be a #2. With the others under contract, I think Duffey will eventually get pushed to the pen. I think Duffey and May are pretty similar. Fastballs are similar (Duffey maybe more movement and control), and May has the very good changeup while Duffey has the very good breaking ball. Similar upsides.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Berrios is the better prospect by a long shot, but it is not unreasonable to think that Duffey gives them a better chance to win tonight and in the next couple of starts.

 

I find it wise to not break in Berrios against Toronto in that launching pad.

 

exactly, and I like Berrios as much as anyone, but I definitely think that Duffey gives them a better chance to win.

 

Of course, there's no way to know. Berrios is close. They aren't afraid of calling him up. 

[hybridbear]

Duffey sure didn't pitch well tonight

[blairpaul715]

 

Duffey sure didn't pitch well tonight

Well if it is any consolation, those HR were not hanging pitches, Toronto is just a HR hitting team, bigtime.

[laloesch]

 

I have no answer to the rest of your post, but I think referring to Duffey's placement on the 2015 prospect lists is a little mis-leading. He has knocked more than 1 run off his AA/AAA ERA from last year and increased his strikeout rate. I think it is fair to say that he will/would shoot up lists this year. Heck, at this point you could argue that he is a better prospect than Meyer!

 

 

Gibson, May, and Berrios should be in the rotation next year. Full stop. This team needs its young core they've developed to be let off the leash finally so we can see what they can do. Trade Milone and dump Nolasco. That was easy, wasn't it?

 

The Twins have painted themselves into a corner with 3 averag-ish major league starters (when healthy) getting paid free-agent rates, exactly the kind of thing I was worried about when they signed Santana. Not only is it expensive, but it makes the roster inflexible. May, Gibson, and Berrios can do what Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have done, but for a fraction of the cost and should they falter- they have options. The free-agent signings can't be optioned. And we all know Terry Ryan and the Twins' M.O., they aren't going to do what I suggested above, but instead we'll be stuck with 3 declining average to mediocre vets on scholarship. 

 

I wouldn't fret too much about it.  At this point all of the starters are tradable with the exception of Nolasco (whom the Twins have been trying to move, if the reports are right).  

 

I think Ryan will be selling one or two starters this offseason.  We all know that Pelfrey is gone at seasons end and they won't be re-signing him.  Nolasco might be on the way out as well.   He has made it well known that he is not happy in Minnesota and the Twins should be able to sell him as a one season rental if they pick up part of his salary this offseason.  

 

After the last couple of starts Milone has proved that he is not exceptional, but he is a southpaw and insurance in case Berrios doesn't take.  No worries though May will be a starter in 2016 along with Berrios at some point.

 

At this point I think your locks are Hughes, Santana and Gibson.  Milone is on the fringe with May and Berrios.  I'm not including Meyer as it appears he's completely flamed out.  

[nicksaviking]

It sounds silly, but I'd keep riding Duffy.  It is my belief that all rookies are going to struggle.  Let him ride out his struggles for the rest of the season.  Gibson and May sure were better after letting them flop their first year.

 

Of course, I'm also in favor of still finding rotation spots for May and Berrios. A GM would need to get creative to make room for all three, though looking at the contract situation, he's going to have to be creative to find spots for the young guys next year anyway.

[adjacent]

 

It sounds silly, but I'd keep riding Duffy.  It is my belief that all rookies are going to struggle.  Let him ride out his struggles for the rest of the season.  Gibson and May sure were better after letting them flop their first year.

 

Of course, I'm also in favor of still finding rotation spots for May and Berrios. A GM would need to get creative to make room for all three, though looking at the contract situation, he's going to have to be creative to find spots for the young guys next year anyway.

I agree with you. Once you bring him up, I would give him at least 3 starts to get the nerves out and show what he can do.. Having said that, what a sense of opportunity to bring SP prospects up! Last year, May on the road against the A's, that were the hottest hitting team at that time. This year, the poor Duffy against the Jays, that even the #8 hitter hits home runs left and right.

[70charger]

 

It sounds silly, but I'd keep riding Duffy.  It is my belief that all rookies are going to struggle.  Let him ride out his struggles for the rest of the season.  Gibson and May sure were better after letting them flop their first year.

 

Of course, I'm also in favor of still finding rotation spots for May and Berrios. A GM would need to get creative to make room for all three, though looking at the contract situation, he's going to have to be creative to find spots for the young guys next year anyway.

 

Agreed about Duffey. I'm also looking forward to some analysis of the 40 man decisions coming up this offseason, and not just to find spots for young pitchers.

 

If done right, I think there ought to be a purge of the fringe guys anyway. Simple rule 5 concerns seem like they should exclude at least a few of the fringe guys we've got right now. There's too much talent in the upper minors (and now, mercifully, leaking into the major leagues) for some of these guys to hang on.

Edited August 6, 2015 by 70charger

[Mike Sixel]

 

It sounds silly, but I'd keep riding Duffy.  It is my belief that all rookies are going to struggle.  Let him ride out his struggles for the rest of the season.  Gibson and May sure were better after letting them flop their first year.

 

Of course, I'm also in favor of still finding rotation spots for May and Berrios. A GM would need to get creative to make room for all three, though looking at the contract situation, he's going to have to be creative to find spots for the young guys next year anyway.

 

if not May....agreed, I'd rather see Duffey get another shot. What's he do in the week he sits?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, if there was an opportunity to get May stretched out, last night would have been a good one.  Could have let him pitch 4 innings after Duffey got shelled and then sent Duffey down.

 

That's what I would have done there.  Oh well.

 

Hopefully Duffey does better for his next start.