Article: Official Twins Daily July Trade Deadline Thread

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Per mlbtraderumors we're more in the Craig Breslow market than Craig Kimbrel

One word: ick.

 

But, unlike Kimbrel, at least he doesn't come with that terrible "CLOSER" tag, which basically doubles a guy's value for no good reason.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

One word: ick.

 

But, unlike Kimbrel, at least he doesn't come with that terrible "CLOSER" tag, which basically doubles a guy's value for no good reason.

 

Is Neshek available? I mean if we're putting the band back together and all.

[USMCTwin]

 

Per mlbtraderumors we're more in the Craig Breslow market than Craig Kimbrel

 

Actually it says we are not interested in Breslow:

 

•Though the Twins are in the market for relief help, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (via Twitter) that they’re not interested in either Junichi Tazawa or Craig Breslow of the Red Sox. Berardino hears that the Twins are turned off by Tazawa’s five-plus years of service (he’ll be a free agent after 2016) and Breslow’s impending free agency.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/pen-notes-astros-seek-impact-arm-twins-prioritizing-control-lowe-drawing-interest.html

[Thrylos]

 

I could definitely get behind Kimbrel, but for Kepler?  Unless the Twins think Kepler is a mirage and are selling high, I'd probably look to send a lesser prospect for Kimbrel. 

 

Got to sell high.  There are some disturbing things about Kepler, namely power or lack of (compare his numbers with Arcia's at this point,) defense, and speed.   Kepler and Arcia are pretty much repetitive in the organization, with the difference that we know that Arcia will hit for more power (and the Twins do not have (m)any power hitters from the L side.) and Arcia's OF D has been improving while Kepler's declining.   Kepler's ceiling?  2015 Mauer with less defense and likely less contact.  In other words, Scott Stahoviak (who was highly rated also, btw, compare his MiLB numbers with Kepler's...)

Sell High.

Edited July 31, 2015 by Thrylos

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting Stahoviak comp and while there are similarities, it should be noted that Scott received roughly half his MiLB PAs in the PCL. Kepler is posting similar numbers but he's doing it in a much more balanced Southern League.

 

Also, Stahoviak struck out nearly twice for every walk taken while Kepler has a 1:1 ratio this season, though that is a relatively new thing for Max.

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, Kepler's SLG is pretty high for a 22 YO in AA ball.......

 

Defense? He plays CF, RF, and 1B.

 

Ceiling is Stahoviak? Uh, no. Not close. Wow. Just, wow.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I would be in favor of a deal for Shields and Benoit - allowing the Twins to push Pelfrey into the bullpen, where I think he would be very good.  A Santana, Shields, Hughes, Gibson, Milone rotation looks quite good to me - as does a Pelfrey/Duensing/May-6th and 7th inning, Benoit-8th inning and Perkins closing.

 

Padres take on Nolasco, get Kohl Stewart and possibly Arcia or Santana.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2015 by MileHighTwinsFan

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think Molitor has different motivations - he still has to manage the current 25 man roster, and can't have it out there he is asking for a trade in case something doesn't happen.

 

If he was honest he would probably say "Get me some bleeping relievers yesterday"

 

The only thing Molitor needs to say is "Keep your eyes out of the sports section and your heads in the game".

[halfchest]

 

Got to sell high.  There are some disturbing things about Kepler, namely power or lack of (compare his numbers with Arcia's at this point,) defense, and speed.   Kepler and Arcia are pretty much repetitive in the organization, with the difference that we know that Arcia will hit for more power (and the Twins do not have (m)any power hitters from the L side.) and Arcia's OF D has been improving while Kepler's declining.   Kepler's ceiling?  2015 Mauer with less defense and likely less contact.  In other words, Scott Stahoviak (who was highly rated also, btw, compare his MiLB numbers with Kepler's...)

Sell High.

 

That's quite the low ceiling, a likely outcome but his ceiling? really?  Why do you say his defense has been declining?  I haven't seen any reports on this and that's really all we can go by in the minors for the most part.  The fact he's been playing all three outfield positions makes me doubt this claim as well. 

 

If you said that he may just end up as a no power guy who plays 1B and Corner outfield, I may agree that is a possible, maybe even likely outcome but his ceiling is much higher than a .725 OPS guy who can only play 1B/DH.   He was expected to take a bit longer to develop than other prospects due to his background and now we're starting to see him flourish.  Hey may never be a 20-30 HR guy but that doesn't mean he's 2015 Joe Mauer all of a sudden.

 

I do agree though that I'd almost rather trade him than Arcia because as you point out, we'd be selling high on Kepler and low on Arcia.   I think he'd bring more in a trade because he does have a high ceiling and now it's translating to the field in AA. 

[jokin]

 

Why the bleep would you deal those guys for Upton? Mind. Boggling.

 

Nolasco?  And if it comes with a package of say, Maurer?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Got to sell high.  There are some disturbing things about Kepler, namely power or lack of (compare his numbers with Arcia's at this point,) defense, and speed.   Kepler and Arcia are pretty much repetitive in the organization, with the difference that we know that Arcia will hit for more power (and the Twins do not have (m)any power hitters from the L side.) and Arcia's OF D has been improving while Kepler's declining.   Kepler's ceiling?  2015 Mauer with less defense and likely less contact.  In other words, Scott Stahoviak (who was highly rated also, btw, compare his MiLB numbers with Kepler's...)

Sell High.

I disagree with literally every word. Kepler is nothing like Arcia, except for being a lefty.  He has a higher SLG. percentage than Adam Walker right now (yes, seriously.) Kepler's OF D has been declining? What? I have heard only the opposite. And Arcia's OF D has been improving? Where do you get that from?+ Look, I get that HRs are sexy. But really, a lot of doubles and triples will make up for only mediocre HR numbers, which is what Kepler has/will have.

Edited July 31, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Winston Smith]

Kimbrel isn't a free agent until 2018 so we'd have him for 2+ years. I'd do that trade for Kepler. We have plenty of Of's at this point not much at the end of the bullpen. Kimbrel and Perkins in the 8th and 9th would be very nice the next two years, imo.

[Mike Sixel]

Arcia is out of options after this year....Kepler has them. Again, that has huge value. I don't get this talk at all.

[lukeduke1980]

Maybe we should just talk up prospects in case san diego GM guys is reading this

[amjgt]

The good news is, with Price being traded, when we sign him in the offseason, it will not cost us a draft pick.

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe we should just talk up prospects in case san diego GM guys is reading this

 

Good point. Arcia is the greatest OF defender EVAR!

[jorgenswest]

Trade JR Graham back to Atlanta for AJ, then get some real bullpen help. Anybody want to take Pelfrey, Arcia or Santana? They're not all world right now but gotta be worth something.

They might try to get the Braves to include Graham in a deal with Pierzynski. It would enable the Twins to add an arm in the pen and give Graham some AAA starts.

Edited July 31, 2015 by jorgenswest

[Mike Sixel]

 

The good news is, with Price being traded, when we sign him in the offseason, it will not cost us a draft pick.

 

I wish I could LOVE this post.

[halfchest]

 

Kimbrel isn't a free agent until 2018 so we'd have him for 2+ years. I'd do that trade for Kepler. We have plenty of Of's at this point not much at the end of the bullpen. Kimbrel and Perkins in the 8th and 9th would be very nice the next two years, imo.

Both guy actually have 2018 options so as long as they keep pitching it would be for 3+ years.  I would do that no problem, especially if it includes taking back Nolasco's contract as part of the deal. 

 

I think people also need to realize that Kimbrel is not just a very good reliever but he may be the best reliever in the game right now.  Plus with Perks cheap contract we can afford to pay his big contract. Again, I just wonder who would end up closing games if we got him. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I heard Kepler was dangled in a package for Kimbrel, but it's not going anywhere.

If the Yankees offer Mateo, they'll get Kimbrel. Then the Astros go after Benoit and the Twins are left standing with all the chairs full.

Heard the Upton rumor with more detail: The Padres would trade him and take back Nolasco's contract for Hicks or Rosario. That would amount to a salary dump with no other moves and people would be angry.

Unless it's part of something bigger. Stay tuned.

Justin Upton straight up for Hicks OR Rosario and they'll also take Nolasco??

 

Make it Rosario and I'd jump all over this.  To me, if Padres insist on Hicks, we gotta have more [whatever that might be].  Twins can use the extra power hitter and an extra free spot on the pitching staff. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They might try to get the Braves to include Graham in a deal with Pierzynski. It would enable the Twins to add an arm in the pen and give Graham some AAA starts.

That would be a nice addition to a Pierzynski pickup.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I'm OK with the Twins not doing much. Let them pay the offseason price for a catcher and bullpen help.

Let Polanco play at SS and see what we have got there. If he hits and fields we got our man. If he hits, but doesn't field he is tradeable.

If he hits and DOESN'T field how is he tradeable?

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Got to sell high.  There are some disturbing things about Kepler, namely power or lack of (compare his numbers with Arcia's at this point,) defense, and speed.   Kepler and Arcia are pretty much repetitive in the organization, with the difference that we know that Arcia will hit for more power (and the Twins do not have (m)any power hitters from the L side.) and Arcia's OF D has been improving while Kepler's declining.   Kepler's ceiling?  2015 Mauer with less defense and likely less contact.  In other words, Scott Stahoviak (who was highly rated also, btw, compare his MiLB numbers with Kepler's...)

Sell High.

Count me in on asking some more follow up on this one.

 

I'm not saying Kepler is going to burn it all down, but I'm not sold on minor league home runs as being indicative of major league power development, especially with a uber-development player like Kepler. 

 

Brian Dozier (while likely a statistical outlier) hit 7 home runs in 311 AA at bats (22 Doubles/7 Triples). In 323 at bats, Kepler has 6 Hr/25 doubles/9 triples). Arcia at AA 262:20/510.

 

I have to run to a meeting, but I would also compare the K/W ration....stupid meetings..

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Kepler's likely ceiling is Scherzer because they're both named Max.

 

Though Kepler's full name is Maximilian while Scherzer's is Maxwell so that's probably worth a couple of extra WAR.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I would love to see a situation where they just said screw the traditional closer role.  You have two elite pitchers to cover the back end of the game and they are used interchangeably depending on matchups.

Bill Campbell and Tom Burgemeier

[USAFChief]

Broxton to the Cardinals.

 

For a 20 yr old posting a .700 OPS in his third yr in rookie ball, without a position.

 

Too steep a price for TR?

[Winston Smith]

I would love to see a situation where they just said screw the traditional closer role.  You have two elite pitchers to cover the back end of the game and they are used interchangeably depending on matchups.

100% agree with this. What's more important winning games or saves? Check your ego at the door and do what's best for the team.

[amjgt]

Could a James Shields trade center around Plouffe and a 8-15th ranked prospect?

[DaveW]

Rosario or Hicks absolutely should NOT be traded in order to dump Nolasco. The Twins have plenty of payroll flexibility and while it sucks having Nolasco's money on the books the Twins can easily just eat it instead of giving up a stud OF like Hicks or Rosario.

[jorgenswest]

Nolasco has negative value. If adding him to a trade also means adding more prospects, I would rather keep him and increase payroll.