Article: Twins Trade Chips

[Mike Sixel]

They really don't seem to like Arcia, though. And, he's out of options after this year. He's either here full time next year, or on another roster (or hurt, I guess).

[Platoon]

I'm sorry but this meme needs to die. Was that the case ten years ago? Yeah, maybe. Probably even likely.

 

Look at this roster and tell me the Twins are still infatuated with going oppo and forcing players to fit a predetermined mold.

 

Dozier is a pull beast.

 

Sano is just a beast. See ball, hit ball. Ball go far.

 

Plouffe was a pull beast but it doesn't appear the team tried to change that... he just evolved into a different (and more productive) hitter, just as he's evolved into a more productive everything. Trevor all o continues to pull the ball more often than not, especially for power.

 

I doubt Arcia's pull-happy nature is the reason the Twins are trying to alter his approach. The Twins seem perfectly content to let Brian Dozier pull every ball he sees, provided he's productive while doing it.

You named one guy, Dozier, who is strictly pull happy, and if he doesn't start seeing more up and in FB, that might have to change. . Plouffe evolved on his own? And most players power is to pull. Sano? I don't think there is anywhere near enough history there to analyze. He still hasn't had a brutal stretch where he presses. As for the meme being past its expiration date, why would it have changed? Tom Kelly is a huge influence still, the GM is back, the hitting coach is from that era, and Molly has been around here forever. TR did not hire a new staff that was going to tear the Twins Way down and rebuild it. They do shift more, and appear more analytical, but some of the old ways remain. Low SO rates across the board, work the count is way too emphasized, as is pure power to ignored. Big power guys strike out as a rule fairly often. Now, you may not like that, and not want them on your roster, that's the teams choice. But the fact is, they still try to mold players to their philosophy, instead of playing to that players strength.

[jimbo92107]

 

Rossario has been nice, but I just get this very strong feeling that he is simply this years version of Danny Santana. High BAIP, doesn't walk, not much power, and decent OF defense. He is probably playing at the highest level he ever will in his career. 

That's not the impression I get at all. Eddie Rosario is flat out a major league ballplayer. His demeanor has none of the fragility of Danny Santana. Rosario walked onto the field like he owned it, has looked solid, and he's getting better steadily. Rosario is one of the guys that's constantly looking for ways to put pressure on the other team, not like he's letting them put pressure on him.

 

There's two ways to relate to pressure: Put it on them, or feel it on yourself. Santana feels the pressure on himself, where Rosario puts the pressure on them. That's why I have total confidence in Rosario, where Santana is still iffy as a pro. That's why I'd send Santana down to AAA to work on his plate discipline and overall approach, where I'd leave Rosario in the corner outfield for the next decade or so.

[drjim]

 

You named one guy, Dozier, who is strictly pull happy, and if he doesn't start seeing more up and in FB, that might have to change. . Plouffe evolved on his own? And most players power is to pull. Sano? I don't think there is anywhere near enough history there to analyze. He still hasn't had a brutal stretch where he presses. As for the meme being past its expiration date, why would it have changed? Tom Kelly is a huge influence still, the GM is back, the hitting coach is from that era, and Molly has been around here forever. TR did not hire a new staff that was going to tear the Twins Way down and rebuild it. They do shift more, and appear more analytical, but some of the old ways remain. Low SO rates across the board, work the count is way too emphasized, as is pure power to ignored. Big power guys strike out as a rule fairly often. Now, you may not like that, and not want them on your roster, that's the teams choice. But the fact is, they still try to mold players to their philosophy, instead of playing to that players strength.

 

Funny how you provide a critique and a rebuttal to own critique in a sentence.

[jimbo92107]

 

I think at this point it might be wiser to dangle Plouffe, Hunter, Perkins, the SS crew, Milone or any other starting pitchers.

If they deal Perkins, that's the white flag on this whole season. They have no clear successor at closer. They could try getting by with Graham or May, bring up somebody (AJ Achter?), but we could not expect the level of success we get from Perkins, even after he's blown a few.

 

I could see the Twins trading Plouffe to a contender for a high-quality prospect, like a good young catcher. Otherwise, this just ain't the year to make big deals.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You named one guy, Dozier, who is strictly pull happy, and if he doesn't start seeing more up and in FB, that might have to change. . Plouffe evolved on his own? And most players power is to pull. Sano? I don't think there is anywhere near enough history there to analyze. He still hasn't had a brutal stretch where he presses. As for the meme being past its expiration date, why would it have changed? Tom Kelly is a huge influence still, the GM is back, the hitting coach is from that era, and Molly has been around here forever. TR did not hire a new staff that was going to tear the Twins Way down and rebuild it. They do shift more, and appear more analytical, but some of the old ways remain. Low SO rates across the board, work the count is way too emphasized, as is pure power to ignored. Big power guys strike out as a rule fairly often. Now, you may not like that, and not want them on your roster, that's the teams choice. But the fact is, they still try to mold players to their philosophy, instead of playing to that players strength.

Ugh.

 

Plouffe is still largely a pull guy. Did you miss that part? He started going oppo a bit more this season but after two successful seasons at the plate, I doubt the Twins were pushing him in that direction, just as they haven't even tried to stop Dozier from pulling.

 

And somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Brunansky himself a pull hitter?

 

You may think the jury is out on Sano but it's not like this kid is some unknown. I've never read anything about him going oppo and given his power, he's almost certainly a pull hitter (13 hits pull/center, just 4 oppo thus far).

 

Rosario is an all-fields guy but that has always been his profile as a hitter, at least that's the impression I always had of him as a player.

 

Hicks is very pull-happy this season as a righty, his dominant side.

 

There is no evidence the Twins are against hitters pulling the ball and there hasn't been evidence of it for a long time.

[Willihammer]

If anything I think the counter argument could be made. Plouffe is less pull happy than ever, and the results are excellent. Mauer is more pull happy, the results worse. You can't cookie cutter anybody, that's the only lesson I hope the Twins learned from the Ortiz fiasco.

[tobi0040]

 

If anything I think the counter argument could be made. Plouffe is less pull happy than ever, and the results are excellent. Mauer is more pull happy, the results worse. You can't cookie cutter anybody, that's the only lesson I hope the Twins learned from the Ortiz fiasco.

 

First, I don't buy this meme either.  But I think Mauer's bat has slowed down to the point where pulling is not really an option anymore.  The OF defense he faces confirms this.  If he could pull it down the RF line he could run to 3B backwards.

Edited July 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just for funsies, here's Dozier's spray chart. It's kinda ridiculous.

 

[nicksaviking]

If they deal Perkins, that's the white flag on this whole season.

I think it was waived without us knowing when the front office let the bullpen lose a dozen games but didn't do anything to fix it.

[bluechipper]

 

Ugh.

 

Plouffe is still largely a pull guy. Did you miss that part? He started going oppo a bit more this season but after two successful seasons at the plate, I doubt the Twins were pushing him in that direction, just as they haven't even tried to stop Dozier from pulling.

 

And somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Brunansky himself a pull hitter?

 

You may think the jury is out on Sano but it's not like this kid is some unknown. I've never read anything about him going oppo and given his power, he's almost certainly a pull hitter (13 hits pull/center, just 4 oppo thus far).

 

Rosario is an all-fields guy but that has always been his profile as a hitter, at least that's the impression I always had of him as a player.

 

Hicks is very pull-happy this season as a righty, his dominant side.

 

There is no evidence the Twins are against hitters pulling the ball and there hasn't been evidence of it for a long time.

Sano has shown he can use the whole field though. He's got at least two RBI hits the other way already, and he has crushed a double off the limestone in right field too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano has shown he can use the whole field though. He's got at least two RBI hits the other way already, and he has crushed a double off the limestone in right field too.

Well, yeah. Miguel is really strong. Even the most pull-happy hitters hit a lot of balls to the opposite field (after all, that's what the opposing pitcher is trying to do to a pull hitter to get them off their game).

 

Most of those opposite field balls result in outs... but occasionally, a guy as strong as Miguel will still get it over the fielder's head.

 

Can't catch a ball that's ten feet up the wall.

 

Sano has hit just six balls to the opposite side of the field. He has hit over 15 balls pulled toward left field. He has a handful of balls up the middle.

[tobi0040]

Here are some stats on the pen.  I did not take the time to parse out May and Pelfey's time in the pen. I left them off for this purpose.    In summary, our pen is 12-16 with a 4.00 ERA (129 ER in 290). Obviously the closer is going to have more opportunities to lose the game than a mop up guy.   But we are four games above .500.  We would be 8 with a .500 pen.  

 

I don't even want to know how many inherited runners from the starters our pen has let up.  I am guessing 89.6% or so.

 

 

Pitcher            Wins         Losses          IP         ER          ERA
O'Rourke           0                0                 9          1             0.00
Perkins              0                 3               41        11            2.41
Boyer                 2                 4              42.2      13            2.74
Pressley             3                 2              27.2       9            2.93
Graham              0                 0               47        19            3.64
Fein                    2                 4              31.1       16            4.6
Thompson          1                  3              32.1      18            5.01
Duensing             3                  0             26 1       6            5.54
Stuaffer               1                  0               15         11          6.6
Thielbar                0                 0                5          3            5.4
Tonkin                  0                 0                11         7           5.73
Meyer                   0                  0             2.2           5         16.88

Edited July 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[TRex]

 

Well, yeah. Miguel is really strong. Even the most pull-happy hitters hit a lot of balls to the opposite field (after all, that's what the opposing pitcher is trying to do to a pull hitter to get them off their game).

 

Most of those opposite field balls result in outs... but occasionally, a guy as strong as Miguel will still get it over the fielder's head.

 

Can't catch a ball that's ten feet up the wall.

 

Sano has hit just six balls to the opposite side of the field. He has hit over 15 balls pulled toward left field. He has a handful of balls up the middle.

Let it go... don't make the obvious joke...

Let it go, let it go, let it go

Let it go, let it go, let it go

Let it go, let it go, let it go

Let it go, let it go, let it go

 

 

Oh hell, 

Edited July 30, 2015 by TRex

[Platoon]

Maybe I should have been more concise. And maybe more descriptive. The Twins are not prone to play big swinging, all or nothing style hitters. In the style of an Arcia, Dunn, Big Papi, etc. and that is there prerogative. Almost all this type hitter is pull happy. BD does not fit that description regardless of his hit chart. HR for him are an added, and surprising addition. He's also a decent defensive player, base runner etc. While I expect his HR output to go down, it's highly doubtful his playing time will. His value, and of the last 18 months Plouffes, is more varied. The ones I listed are more long ball focused, which I still contend is not a Twins priority. Btw, Dozier and Plouffe did not come up as sluggers. They both came up as SS, failed, transitioned to other positions, where there were absolutely no other options, developed, and refined there hitting style lastly. They were so down on Dozier overall, they tried to convert Rosario to an IF. I doubt Doziers spray chart was the reason for that.

[h2oface]

The trouble with Ryan, is that he never ever goes after a top player. Never. He goes after Pelfrey and Santana and Nolasco and Hughes (recently) and hopes they do better than they have been doing. And those are some of his better hires, when all the really horrible trades/signings (I know my examples weren't trades) are considered (the list is long). Twins' fans seem to have gotten so used to that, they talk themselves into liking the leftover players signed because they have no choice, because it is their team. It is hard for me to get excited about Ryan making a trade, because it is Ryan chosing the player.

Edited July 30, 2015 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

Kepler is still such a wild card. Always playing against older competition. "Almost untouchable" seems like a premature classification for a guy who's having his first real success. Hopefully, they'll wait to find out what he's going to be or get something for him before learning he isn't going to be anything.

 

Trading Kepler would be a blind bet. I don't think anyone knows what he really is yet.

That is exactly why he has value. Like Meyer's value got Denard Span. Washington knew he was a wild card. So did Ryan. Ryan made that bet, and has lost it for 3 years.... so far.  To wait is to have an untradable prospect, or devalued prospect - a devalued asset - like Vargas and Arcia and Meyer and Pinto have become. 

 

Edited July 30, 2015 by h2oface

[tobi0040]

 

The trouble with Ryan, is that he never ever goes after a top player. Never. He goes after Pelfrey and Santana and Nolasco and Hughes (recently) and hopes they do better than they have been doing. And those are some of his better hires, when all the really horrible trades/signings (I know my examples weren't trades) are considered (the list is long). Twins' fans seem to have gotten so used to that, they talk themselves into liking the leftover players signed because they have no choice, because it is their team. It is hard for me to get excited about Ryan making a trade, because it is Ryan chosing the player.

 

That is why Ryan needs to be a scout and not a GM.  The second he gives a guy some money, he is playing come hell or high water.

 

 

[drjim]

That is exactly why he has value. Like Meyer's value got Denard Span. Washington knew he was a wild card. So did Ryan. Ryan made that bet, and has lost it for 3 years.... so far. To wait is to have an untradable prospect, or devalued prospect, like Vargas and Arcia and Meyer and Pinto have become.

Or to wait is to have an untouchable prospect because he is so good.

 

That's the fun of prospects.

[h2oface]

 

Or to wait is to have an untouchable prospect because he is so good.

That's the fun of prospects.

I just have more fun with the MLB team, especially when maybes become Tulo's..... or Hamels'.... or even Kazmir's....... way more fun (except that is just a fantasy here). To trade away 5 to ten maybes and lose one that became somebody, for 3 to 4 somebodies? I like my plan better, and find it way more fun when the team is winning because it has good to great players that prospects brought.

Edited July 30, 2015 by h2oface

[Vanimal46]

Here are some stats on the pen. I did not take the time to parse out May and Pelfey's time in the pen. I left them off for this purpose. In summary, our pen is 12-16 with a 4.00 ERA (129 ER in 290). Obviously the closer is going to have more opportunities to lose the game than a mop up guy. But we are four games above .500. We would be 8 with a .500 pen.

 

I don't even want to know how many inherited runners from the starters our pen has let up. I am guessing 89.6% or so.

 

 

Pitcher Wins Losses IP ER ERA

O'Rourke 0 0 9 1 0.00

Perkins 0 3 41 11 2.41

Boyer 2 4 42.2 13 2.74

Pressley 3 2 27.2 9 2.93

Graham 0 0 47 19 3.64

Fein 2 4 31.1 16 4.6

Thompson 1 3 32.1 18 5.01

Duensing 3 0 26 1 6 5.54

Stuaffer 1 0 15 11 6.6

Thielbar 0 0 5 3 5.4

Tonkin 0 0 11 7 5.73

Meyer 0 0 2.2 5 16.88

Thanks for the chart. Yeah no kidding on the inherited runners comment. If there was an ERA based off of that, Boyer would be at Meyers level 16.88

[howeda7]

Yeah. The way he plays is what makes him great, but he also seems like a guy who will have trouble staying on the field because of it. I would certainly consider trading him if the price was right.

 

If you could get say Lucroy and Segura for Buxton and Santana/Polanco do you do it? I'm not sure. But I wouldn't reject the idea out of hand.

A lot of people down on Buxton because of the injuries?

 

[nater79a]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if TR has fielded some calls about Arcia this deadline. 24 y/o LH bats who OPS > .800 against RHP don't come around everyday. Still a lot of upside there and dumping him now for spare parts would be a mistake IMO. Assuming Arcia is able to get back on track I could easily see him turning in a Mitch Moreland type career as a semi-platoon corner guy.

 

If by "corner guy" you mean playing in the outfield... with a glove on... I'd have to pass.

[jimmer]

 

Here are some stats on the pen.  I did not take the time to parse out May and Pelfey's time in the pen. I left them off for this purpose.    In summary, our pen is 12-16 with a 4.00 ERA (129 ER in 290). Obviously the closer is going to have more opportunities to lose the game than a mop up guy.   But we are four games above .500.  We would be 8 with a .500 pen.  

 

I don't even want to know how many inherited runners from the starters our pen has let up.  I am guessing 89.6% or so.

 

 

Pitcher            Wins         Losses          IP         ER          ERA
O'Rourke           0                0                 9          1             0.00
Perkins              0                 3               41        11            2.41
Boyer                 2                 4              42.2      13            2.74
Pressley             3                 2              27.2       9            2.93
Graham              0                 0               47        19            3.64
Fein                    2                 4              31.1       16            4.6
Thompson          1                  3              32.1      18            5.01
Duensing             3                  0             26 1       6            5.54
Stuaffer               1                  0               15         11          6.6
Thielbar                0                 0                5          3            5.4
Tonkin                  0                 0                11         7           5.73
Meyer                   0                  0             2.2           5         16.88

3 teams have allowed a higher percentage of inherited runners to score than the Twins (Twins have allowed 34% to score) and only one team has allowed more actual inherited runners to score.

 

Sorry, you said you didn't want to know. :-)

Edited July 31, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

Has Terry even traded any prospects in the Terry 2.0 era?

TR actually never traded any prospects midseason during the Terry 1.0 era.

 

An offseason deal of 2 minor league relievers for Luis Castillo is the only notable TR trade of prospects that I can recall.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you could get say Lucroy and Segura for Buxton and Santana/Polanco do you do it? I'm not sure. But I wouldn't reject the idea out of hand.

Segura isn't that good, but the idea is interesting.

 

If we are really sold on Hicks, and feeling a bit skeptical on Buxton, I could entertain Buxton for Susac + prospect(s), maybe? Susac would come with 5-6 years of control.

 

On that train of though -- would you trade present-day Buxton for Garza/Bartlett circa 2008?

[diehardtwinsfan]

The idea of pull vs oppo I think has more to do with hitting what the pitchers give you.  Not very many guys can successfully pull a pitch if they get a steady diet of outside pitches, and major league pitchers are good enough to do it consistently if they keep trying to pull it.  The goal is to take what the pitchers give as opposed to leaving a hole in your swing.  Plouffe and Dozier do that well, which is why they have both turned into very good hitters. 

 

That said, I'm with Brock, this meme really needs to die.  It just isn't true.  Arcia's problem is not that he's a pull hitter.  It's that he pulls everything and makes a ton of weak or misses as a result.  He has the talent to be one of MLBs better hitters, his minor league numbers certainly say so, but right now I think his problem is unfortunately more mental.  I hope he figures it out, he was one of my picks to break out this year, and I think he still can.  The idea of a .300/.360/.520 type hitter behind Sano makes me drool, and that's what Arcia can become.  I suppose for the right piece, I'd trade him in a heart beat, but I cannot imagine he has much value right now. 

[gagu]

 

You mean other than today?

I think that was his point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

TR actually never traded any prospects midseason during the Terry 1.0 era.

An offseason deal of 2 minor league relievers for Luis Castillo is the only notable TR trade of prospects that I can recall.

 

He did deal for Shannon Stewart, didn't he? You'd think that when it works, you'd maybe try it again....

[Otto von Ballpark]

He did deal for Shannon Stewart, didn't he? You'd think that when it works, you'd maybe try it again....

Kielty was two weeks shy of his 27th birthday when we traded him for Stewart, with 750 MLB PA. He was no longer a prospect.