Article: Twins Trade Chips

[Seth Stohs]

Friday at 3:00 central time is the non-waiver trade deadline. In other words, it’s getting close. Today, I wanted to spend just a couple of minutes talking about the chips that the Twins could use in potential trades.

 

Jeremy Nygaard has kept us updated on which teams the Twins have had discussions with, though it is likely true if you were to just assume that Terry Ryan has had at least cursory conversations with at least 25 other GMs around the league.The Untouchables

 

I am of the opinion that unless someone like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper is available, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are completely untouchable. I think it’s also fair to assume that JO Berrios would also be untouchable unless the Twins were offered something that is incredibly unlikely.

 

Untouchable, But…?

 

I realize that is an awkward heading, but it does seem appropriate. I think Max Kepler is a guy that the Twins would really rather not trade. I think they have and should tell teams that he is untouchable. However, he is also someone who teams will really, really want and may be the piece that gets them a top player, someone who could make a difference this year and going forward.

 

Shortstops

 

Jorge Polanco is the name that most assume is most likely to be dealt. He is playing shortstop, but most think that his best position would be second base. His error totals at shortstop have really mounted up. The Twins also have a second baseman who is pretty good in All-Star Brian Dozier. If the Twins don’t believe that Polanco has the arm or the ability to be at least a solid major league shortstop, they should deal him. Teams are always looking for middle-of-the-diamond players and they are tough to fine. If they can find a team that sees him as a shortstop, they could get a lot for him. His bat is probably big league ready now.

 

However, I am sure that other teams are also inquiring about the availability of Danny Santana, and maybe even Eduardo Escobar. Both are still young. Santana has 2014. Escobar has 2014 and terrific versatility. I don’t think the Twins would (or should) want to trade Escobar.

 

Outfielders

 

The goal should never be to sell low. However, that is probably where the Twins are with Oswaldo Arcia. The problem is that not only has he really struggled making consistent contact in the big leagues, his stint in the minor leagues has really shown that he isn’t figuring it out. He’ll always struggle against left-handers, most likely. He is striking out a ton and he is very undisciplined at the plate. And there there is the perceived attitude. Teams around the league talk. Teams are aware of the issues that Arcia presents. The Twins probably can’t get a ton for him, but if I’m another team, I take a shot on his power potential.

 

Eddie Rosario has come up and done a nice job, especially defensively (minus Wednesday, of course). He hasn’t looked overwhelmed at the plate either. That said, his walk to strikeout rate isn’t good, and it is consistent with what it has been in the upper levels of the minor leagues. It might be a sell-high time on Rosario.

 

Pitchers

 

Everyone is looking for pitching. Right now, the name we are hearing most is Kohl Stewart. There are reports, including Jeremy’s, saying that the Twins have let it be known that Stewart is available. Though he has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t racking up strikeout numbers, he is still an elite talent and the Twins could get a significant piece if they’re willing to get rid of him.

 

Stephen Gonsalves is another guy who has jumped into Top 10 Twins prospect lists with great numbers this year. He’s left-handed and has the world of potential. I think the Twins would want to keep him, and I haven’t heard his name in any trade rumors at this point. I only bring it up because he could fetch a very good player in return. Also, he is from San Diego, so if there is one team that I would feel good for him being traded to, it would be the Padres.

 

We don’t know if or when Terry Ryan will make a trade. I think we can all assume they will make at least one deal by tomorrow’s deadline. If not, it will 1.) be scary continuing to watch this bullpen, and 2.) possible to make deals in August under the waiver rules.

 

There always seems to be one more minor leaguer added to a trade that no one anticipated. Here at Twins Daily, we’ll be following closely and ready to report on any Twins trades.

 

Click here to view the article

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Great article! This is a good reference for the next 30+ hours.

 

What about ABW III? His numbers have to be catching people's attention. Are you assuming he's a definite piece to the Twins outfield in the upcoming years? If not, would he be a "sell high" guy vs Arcia?

 

I'd love to keep ABW III because of his consistent production so far. But if Hicks continues to produce, could the Twins outfield (Buxton, Kepler, Rosario/Arcia, Hicks) picture be pretty full?

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Great article! This is a good reference for the next 30+ hours.

 

What about ABW III? His numbers have to be catching people's attention. Are you assuming he's a definite piece to the Twins outfield in the upcoming years? If not, would he be a "sell high" guy vs Arcia?

 

I'd love to keep ABW III because of his consistent production so far. But if Hicks continues to produce, could the Twins outfield (Buxton, Kepler, Rosario/Arcia, Hicks) picture be pretty full?

 

Sorry, should have been ABW II (not III).

[Eephus]

Michael Tonkin might provide some "extra sprinkles" on prospect sundae.

[Halsey Hall]

I'd have Max as untouchable also.  I sure hope he stays and it's great to see him healthy and raking this year. 

 

A friend was at Rochester's game 2 nights ago and said Arcia was trying to pull everything.  Thick between the ears?

 

Ryan better do something quickly though.

[Winston Smith]

Has Terry even traded any prospects in the Terry 2.0 era?

[tobi0040]

I am not as concerned with what is Polanco's best position long term.  I am more concerned with who should our SS the next 1-2 years be. In my eyes he is at least as good of an alternative over Santana and Escobar.  I would like to get his cup of coffee before moving him.

 

The other names on here have way too much upside to be included in a trade for a reliever.  If we get a catcher or SS that is another story.  But I don't move Kohl Stewart, Arcia, for Polanco for a reliever.  I could maybe move Arcia for a dominant reliever signed the next 1-2 years.

 

Kohl....I get that he is not missing many bats.  But we are talking about a guy with good stuff that is still raw.  He is 20.  His ERA is 2.72 in the minors. He started the year as in the 25-35 prospect range by most publications.

Edited July 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[Tibs]

Has Terry even traded any prospects in the Terry 2.0 era?

I don't think he has had much of a reason to trade prospects.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Has Terry even traded any prospects in the Terry 2.0 era?

 

Have they ever been a playoff contender in Terry 2.0 era?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Great article! This is a good reference for the next 30+ hours.

 

What about ABW III? His numbers have to be catching people's attention. Are you assuming he's a definite piece to the Twins outfield in the upcoming years? If not, would he be a "sell high" guy vs Arcia?

 

I'd love to keep ABW III because of his consistent production so far. But if Hicks continues to produce, could the Twins outfield (Buxton, Kepler, Rosario/Arcia, Hicks) picture be pretty full?

 

That's a good point. I should have mentioned him probably. I believe that MLB.com had an article saying he was probably the most likely to be traded. I don't think that's the case, but it's certainly possible.

[Winston Smith]

Have they ever been a playoff contender in Terry 2.0 era?

That shouldn't stop him from making the team better would it?

[Andrew]

Has Terry even traded any prospects in the Terry 2.0 era?

Miguel Sulbaran for Nunez

Edited July 30, 2015 by Andrew

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wouldn't put Kepler on the untouchable list but he'd be close to it... I'd demand a great return on him to let him go this July.

 

Why? Because I think ol' Max's value is going to be a hell of a lot higher in November. His BABIP is coming back to earth but he's still hitting .280 with an elite .400 OBP in July (.850 OPS overall).

 

The longer he keeps doing this, the more teams are going to salivate over him. Right now, an opposing GM could argue "the kid had two good months" and try to drive down his price; if he finishes the season with a .900 OPS, it's going to be a lot harder to call his 2015 a couple of lucky months.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What about ABW III? His numbers have to be catching people's attention. Are you assuming he's a definite piece to the Twins outfield in the upcoming years? If not, would he be a "sell high" guy vs Arcia?

 

I'd love to keep ABW III because of his consistent production so far. But if Hicks continues to produce, could the Twins outfield (Buxton, Kepler, Rosario/Arcia, Hicks) picture be pretty full?

If I was Terry Ryan, it wouldn't be possible for me to get ABW out the door quickly enough if someone offers something of value for him.

[Mike Sixel]

I am a huge Kepler guy. I agree with Brock, he's still trending up, and I'd rather they keep him, or deal him in the off season. And, no way I'd trade a legit 22 year old prospect for a RP. No way.*

 

*unless it was one of the few elite ones, with multiple years of control left.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Rossario has been nice, but I just get this very strong feeling that he is simply this years version of Danny Santana. High BAIP, doesn't walk, not much power, and decent OF defense. He is probably playing at the highest level he ever will in his career. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ryan hasn't had much to work with in 2.0

 

Ryan got Escobar for Liriano. Escobar if used right could be a full time shortstop. Ryan also got Milone for a player he picked up on the waiver wire. Milone's not going to win a Cy Young but there is still a place for the proverbial crafty lefty in MLB. Those are the two that come to mind.

 

There's a little more pressure on Ryan this time. Both because the talent he's sitting on and the pennant race the Twins found themselves in (and in no way should concede). I hope Ryan is taking the need for bullpen help seriously.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rossario has been nice, but I just get this very strong feeling that he is simply this years version of Danny Santana. High BAIP, doesn't walk, not much power, and decent OF defense. He is probably playing at the highest level he ever will in his career. 

That is and probably will be the biggest knock against Rosario for his entire career. The guy isn't disciplined. Whether he can overcome that and become a good player is a cause for concern.

 

That's why I've never been very high on Eddie, just as I was really down on Santana last year when he was playing out of his mind (though Eddie's BABIP isn't stratospheric like Santana's was last year).

 

I wonder whatever happened to the guy who tried to shout me down last season when I suggested that Hicks still had a higher ceiling than Danny Santana, despite Danny's otherworldly production?

 

Yeah, player profiles matter. They matter a lot.

[HitInAPinch]

HA!  Not a single GM on this board

 

If you're serious about improving your team via trade EVERYONE IS AVAILABLE!

And if someone asks about Sano, you bet I'd listen.  Big talent begets big returns.

And, yes, I couldn't get Buxton out the door fast enough.

 

Edited July 30, 2015 by HitInAPinch

[USAFChief]

 

Have they ever been a playoff contender in Terry 2.0 era?

You mean other than today?

[savvyspy]

I disagree on Arcia. I think he's being mismanaged by the front office. There are about 3 people in the league with power that don't strike out a lot. He has more offensive upside than almost anyone on the current Twins roster.

 

I also this the "attitude" issue is something this front office floats when they aren't successful getting players to change their approach. The Twins have a storied history in this area with guys like D. Ortiz, K. Loshe, and Garza. There are talented players out there that resist changing their approach especially when the alternative is an unproven and HIGHLY unsuccessful Twins way.

 

Other teams know the Twins try to turn everyone into an everyday player that is able to hit to all fields. Not every team is designed this way. A team that is looking for a power bat that can hit RH pitching in a platoon situation would be highly interested in Arcia. He's young and has a plus bat against RH pitching. That has value in this league if you focus on what he can do and not focus only on what he'll never do.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Other teams know the Twins try to turn everyone into an everyday player that is able to hit to all fields. Not every team is designed this way.

I'm sorry but this meme needs to die. Was that the case ten years ago? Yeah, maybe. Probably even likely.

 

Look at this roster and tell me the Twins are still infatuated with going oppo and forcing players to fit a predetermined mold.

 

Dozier is a pull beast.

 

Sano is just a beast. See ball, hit ball. Ball go far.

 

Plouffe was a pull beast but it doesn't appear the team tried to change that... he just evolved into a different (and more productive) hitter, just as he's evolved into a more productive everything. Trevor also continues to pull the ball more often than not, especially for power.

 

I doubt Arcia's pull-happy nature is the reason the Twins are trying to alter his approach. The Twins seem perfectly content to let Brian Dozier pull every ball he sees, provided he's productive while doing it.

[Willihammer]

I wouldn't be surprised if TR has fielded some calls about Arcia this deadline. 24 y/o LH bats who OPS > .800 against RHP don't come around everyday. Still a lot of upside there and dumping him now for spare parts would be a mistake IMO. Assuming Arcia is able to get back on track I could easily see him turning in a Mitch Moreland type career as a semi-platoon corner guy.

[Willihammer]

As for trade chips, Byron Buxton would be the guy I'd be fielding offers for.

[SwainZag]

A lot of people down on Buxton because of the injuries?

[USAFChief]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if TR has fielded some calls about Arcia this deadline. 24 y/o LH bats who OPS > .800 against RHP don't come around everyday. Still a lot of upside there and dumping him now for spare parts would be a mistake IMO. Assuming Arcia is able to get back on track I could easily see him turning in a Mitch Moreland type career as a semi-platoon corner guy.

You'd think that guy would have a spot on the 2015 Minnesota Twins.  Maybe WE should trade for him.  Offer up Shane Robinson and see if Rochester bites.

 

Include Duensing if necessary.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You'd think that guy would have a spot on the 2015 Minnesota Twins.  Maybe WE should trade for him.  Offer up Shane Robinson and see if Rochester bites.

Yes, this please.

[nicksaviking]

I think at this point it might be wiser to dangle Plouffe, Hunter, Perkins, the SS crew, Milone or any other starting pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think at this point it might be wiser to dangle Plouffe, Hunter, Perkins, the SS crew, Milone or any other starting pitchers.

 

I agree, they look like sellers now, don't they.

 

I only deal Plouffe for a SS or C of the present/future. The others, whatever is of real value.

[PopRiveter]

I'm fine with acquiring no one as long as it means not losing Arcia.

 

Kepler is still such a wild card. Always playing against older competition. "Almost untouchable" seems like a premature classification for a guy who's having his first real success. Hopefully, they'll wait to find out what he's going to be or get something for him before learning he isn't going to be anything.

 

Trading Kepler would be a blind bet. I don't think anyone knows what he really is yet.